2013 MLB Chase Model

[EVPlus]

I have been experimenting with my own chase model and decided to post the plays on this thread.

I realize the dangers of chasing. However, I am absolutely convinced that under certain conditions, it can be profitable. If you disagree, you are welcome to fade or pass.

The chase is for 4 games, mostly in mlb (there will be some that include wnba plays when the season kicks in).

There will NOT be plays everyday. This model demands patience.

There will be only one play given at a time. Most of the plays will be small dogs to short faves. There can be the occasional -140 or plays, so keep that in mind. Most of the plays will be ML, some RL, and some totals.

I won't have write ups. The plays that are selected will be based on over 20 different filters.

These filters ALL have one common denominator: the ability to adapt and evolve based on new information. I see some chases out there that base their plays on things that happened last season or the season before that. The reality is, teams change their lineup, super stars age (or are forced off PEDs), athletes get injured and sometimes come back as good as ever or other times are never quite the same.

Should you decide to tail, feel free to use the betting progression that works best for you. I STRONGLY recommend that you first determine the most amount that you are willing to sacrifice on a 4-game chase and use that amount to break down how much to wager on bet A, B, C, or D.

Should you decide to fade, I suppose you can use whatever betting progression you want. Just know that I have every intention of turning a profit with this model.

[EVPlus]

Today's play: Phillies ML -112 5dimes Hamels must start

Model Record: 0-0

Chase A: 0-0

Chase B: 0-0

Chase C: 0-0

Chase D: 0-0

[Vinnie Paz]

Nice, I've read your posts before, knowledgeable sharp cat. Hope this works out for the best. Ill keep an eye out for this.

[EVPlus]

Nice, I've read your posts before, knowledgeable sharp cat. Hope this works out for the best. Ill keep an eye out for this.

Thanks very much.

Model Record: 1-0

Chase A: 1-0

Chase B: 0-0

Chase C: 0-0

Chase D: 0-0

[EVPlus]

Play for 4/29

Baltimore -109 5dimes

Britton and Saunders must start.

A bet.

[EVPlus]

Model Record: 1-0

Chase A: 1-1

Chase B: 0-0

Chase C: 0-0

Chase D: 0-0

Next bet will be B.

[EVPlus]

5/1

Oakland -117 5dimes

Wilson and Milone must start.

B bet

[EVPlus]

Model Record: 1-0

A bet: 1-1

B bet: 0-1

C bet: 0-0

D bet: 0-0

Next bet is C.

[Renegades]

A's left the bases loaded twice. Damn it

[EVPlus]

PIRATES -126 5dimes

Detwiler and Burnett must start.

C bet.

[EVPlus]

Model Record: 2-0

Bet A: 1-1

Bet B: 0-1

Bet C: 1-0

Bet D: 0-0

Next bet is A.

[dalogester]

hmm considering tailing because i love anything to do with chase systems in MLB.
Around what time do you post plays? Also, I see you have filters to be able to adapt as the season goes on (which i love) but have you done specific back testing on the type of filters being used for previous seasons?
I would assume so if you have confidence doing it and showing a profit. Gl bro

[EVPlus]

hmm considering tailing because i love anything to do with chase systems in MLB.
Around what time do you post plays? Also, I see you have filters to be able to adapt as the season goes on (which i love) but have you done specific back testing on the type of filters being used for previous seasons?
I would assume so if you have confidence doing it and showing a profit. Gl bro

Thanks for the well wishes.

I do my best to post within 40 minutes of game time. I would like to post sooner; however, I am absolutely not just flipping a coin and and prefer to get as much information as possible.

(I actually had the Orioles today but a key filter did not give the green light until 10 minutes prior to game time. I put a unit on it but decided it was unfair to post as a play in this thread.)

The dangers of back testing is that past results do not guarantee future results. They can provide a reasonable glimpse into what can happen but it's a dangerous game to rely heavily on it.

Take Indian Cowboy, for example. He was an amateur capper here before going tout. Until 2012, he was very good in college hoops. Last season, however, he absolutely crapped the bed - and buried many of his followers who blindly tailed. Bob Balfe is another tout that had a winning season in MLB last year. This year, he is horrendous. The thing shit stains like Indian Cowboy and Balfe have in common is, if you read their write ups, they more or less use the same though processes in making their selections. What worked in the past will not always play out the same way.

To answer your question, yes, these filters have been back tested. HOWEVER, they are open ended in their ability to adapt and evolve based new input. For example, Medlen of the Braves has been moved down the list in terms of starters I trust. Another example are the Rockies at home have moved a little higher in terms of a possible play.

And it's worth noting that I only release one play at a time. Some of the chases I see out there are comical in just how many plays are open at the same time. For those who choose to tail or fade me, they have the luxury of knowing that they can allocate their br into other action.

[dalogester]

Ok thank you for clearing all that up and I look forward to this thread. Best of luck!

[Hectorcist]

Best wishes EV!

[EVPlus]

Best wishes EV!

Thanks and same to you!

[EVPlus]

May 6: Diamondbacks -108 Heritage

Cahill and Capuano must start.

Bet A

[dalogester]

Following, thx for the play.

[mrk77]

checking in

[EVPlus]

Model Record: 3-0

A bet: 2-1

B bet: 0-1

C bet: 1-0

D bet: 0-0

Next bet is A.

[EVPlus]

May 7 play: Astros +1.5 -105 5dimes

Wilson and Lyles must start.

A bet

[EVPlus]

Model Record: 4-0

A bet: 3-1

B bet: 0-1

C bet: 1-0

D bet: 0-0

[Hectorcist]

Very nice hit EV!

[EVPlus]

Very nice hit EV!

Thanks and good call on the Rockies yesterday.

[EVPlus]

May 9: Giants -118 Heritage

Teheran and Vogelsong must start.

A bet.

[EVPlus]

Model Record: 4-0

A bet: 3-2

B bet: 0-1

C bet: 1-0

D bet: 0-0

Next bet is B

[dalogester]

Im going to be out of the house today, wondering if the B bet on Giant is tonight?

[EVPlus]

Im going to be out of the house today, wondering if the B bet on Giant is tonight?

Sorry, no. If there is a B bet tonight, it will be on the Rockies/Cardinals game. Will you be able to access this site 30 minutes prior to game time?

[dalogester]

Oh sure ill do that. Thanks!

[EVPlus]

Oh sure ill do that. Thanks!

Then please check site about 30 minutes prior to game time.

[EVPlus]

May 10 play: Cardinals -1 -117 5dimes

B bet

You can actually reduce the juice to about -113 if you create your own. You do this by putting in the amount to RISK on the reduced juice section for the run-line bet. And then you put in the amount to RISK on the regular juice section for the money-line bet.

For example, if I want to risk $400, I RISK (not "to win") $283.55 on the money line. Then I go into the reduced juice section and put in to RISK $168.78 on the run line. This gives me a -113 line.

http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/ML1runcalc.php

I realize some people don't want to go through the trouble, so I listed the line that you get if you use the drop-down box for -1 that 5dimes provides.

[mrk77]

Hey EV, great job so far! Do you cap every game to see if there's a play every day or do you have a system where there's a qualifying team(s) and you wait closer to game time to confirm the play? The reason I'm asking is that for a day like today where there's games starting almost every hour from 1 p.m, it might be a little difficult logging in every hour to check the plays with it being the weekend and usually errands to run. Was just wondering if there's any way to give a heads up at what games you're looking at and that way could log in around game time to see if there's a play? Don't mean to sound like a spoiled teenage girl lol, I just like the fact that you're picky with your picks and i wouldn't want to miss a play. Either way, I appreciate what you're doing and wish everyone who's following good luck.

[EVPlus]

Hey EV, great job so far! Do you cap every game to see if there's a play every day or do you have a system where there's a qualifying team(s) and you wait closer to game time to confirm the play? The reason I'm asking is that for a day like today where there's games starting almost every hour from 1 p.m, it might be a little difficult logging in every hour to check the plays with it being the weekend and usually errands to run. Was just wondering if there's any way to give a heads up at what games you're looking at and that way could log in around game time to see if there's a play? Don't mean to sound like a spoiled teenage girl lol, I just like the fact that you're picky with your picks and i wouldn't want to miss a play. Either way, I appreciate what you're doing and wish everyone who's following good luck.

Thanks and hope you cashed on St. Louis last night.

I do NOT cap every game. I look at the card and see what stands out. That is the macro view.

Of the games that stand out, I run the filters. Now I'm going from a macro view to micro.

Of the games that the filters agree on (i.e. a confluence of green lights and few, if any red lights), I scrutinize even further. Now I am in a micro view.

As the day progresses, I gather more information such as weather, last minute line up changes, etc.

I also watch line movements. I designed a specific filter just for that. This is the most mercurial of factors but it can be done. Those who argue that line movements don't mean anything are fools. Line movements fall into one of three categories: 1) white noise (irrelevant); 2) false steam (books trying to sucker steam chasers); ) true steam. This filter, which I admit is in its infant stage, some times doesn't kick in until an hour or less before game time. And keep in mind that true steam is NOT always right.

In a perfect world, all my filters will give the green or red light 5 hours or earlier before game time but that's unfortunately not the case.

[EVPlus]

Model Record: 5-0

A bet: 3-2

B bet: 1-1

C bet: 1-0

D bet: 0-0

Next bet is A.

[EVPlus]

May 13 play: White Sox -113 5dimes

Santiago and Hernandez must start.

A bet.