2013 MLB thread

**EXhoosier10** · 04-23-13, 10:08 AM

The only play my computer likes ATM is KC, but that edge should close down when factoring in lineups. I'll probably play Milwaukee small.

For Ari/SF, everybody last start was saying that Cain's mechanics are all out of whack. His movement on pitches didn't seem off compared to last year, his release point seems to be a bit closer to his body, but still in the realm of last year's release. I mean, i don't know what the graphs mean even if there were a change in movement/velocity/release point, but it doesn't look terribly different. I'll trust others and say somethign is out of whack. Offenses look semi equal and corbin should probably regress some. I guess it'd be arizona or no play, but i don't see anything that stands out unless you fade cain.

FWIW, boston's bullpen should be pretty tired (http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/bullpen.pl) and makes me lean Oakland even more.

And I'm putting a loss in my spreadsheet for stl right now and moving on. I'm not even going to watch it as i'm expecting a washington blowout

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

The only play my computer likes ATM is KC, but that edge should close down when factoring in lineups. I'll probably play Milwaukee small.

For Ari/SF, everybody last start was saying that Cain's mechanics are all out of whack. His movement on pitches didn't seem off compared to last year, his release point seems to be a bit closer to his body, but still in the realm of last year's release. I mean, i don't know what the graphs mean even if there were a change in movement/velocity/release point, but it doesn't look terribly different. I'll trust others and say somethign is out of whack. Offenses look semi equal and corbin should probably regress some. I guess it'd be arizona or no play, but i don't see anything that stands out unless you fade cain.

FWIW, boston's bullpen should be pretty tired (http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/bullpen.pl) and makes me lean Oakland even more.

And I'm putting a loss in my spreadsheet for stl right now and moving on. I'm not even going to watch it as i'm expecting a washington blowout

The public seems pretty split on StL/WAS, which can be expected. It'll probably wind up favoring StL slightly before all is said and done. Again, I worry about StL's pen, but in the grand scheme of things, you don't get Waino at this price given his current form very often, if ever. Going to be hard not to fall into that "trap" -- if that's what it is.

I think I'll play Oakland.

The reason I ask about SF/ARI is because the under looks enticing. I'm just not sure what to think about Cain. I've watched him a few times and don't see much out of the ordinary, other than he's not spotting his pitches well at all and leaving a ton of stuff over the middle of the plate.

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 10:31 AM

StL -108 (2.16U to win 2)
StL FF -108 (2.16U to win 2)

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 10:52 AM

A couple of TT's to keep an eye on....

The Cubs TT is 3.5 at Pinny and they're juicing the under. It's dropped to 3 at other shops. I might take the over. I know Ex won't necessarily agree with this, but I'm not completely sold on Cigrani yet and I think there might be some runs scored by the Scrubs in this one -- especially with both bullpens being spent and the kid running up his pitch count in his debut.

The Atlanta TT is 4.5 and being juiced like crazy on the over at Pinny, but the game total is being juiced on the under and the line is creeping in COL's favor. If it moves to 5 at most books but Pinny keeps the 4.5, might want to take ATL TT under 5. Scary proposition given Jeff Francis, but let the books/line make the decision for you.

**YOUNGBUCK** · 04-23-13, 11:04 AM

Never Reds love from Coin

**EXhoosier10** · 04-23-13, 11:32 AM

Cubs should be without Marmol (2ip yesterday) and Bowden (2ip + 1 the day boefre) tomorrow, Reds shouldn't be using LeCure (2ip) or Alfredo Simon (3 straight days). the remaing bullpen arms don't seem too taxed. That being said, the remaining bullpen arms besides aroldis are nobodies. I think Broxton got hit witha line drive yesterday, so he's probably out. Reds 'pen consists of Ondrusek, Parra, and JJ Hoover to get them through the 6th, 7th, and 8th (saving Aroldis to close)? Even the cubs should be able to scratch a run or two across them

sidenote -- Rizzo in the past has been a worse hitter against LHP than Darwin Barney, but thsi year he has been doing very well for himself. he's proven that he can mash RHP, so it'll be interesting to see how he progresses this year. If he keeps it up, he could wind up being an All star candidate this year

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by YOUNGBUCK

Never Reds love from Coin

I don't necessarily think the Reds are going to lose, but unless Cingrani somehow becomes much more efficient in this start, the Cubs could score some runs tonight in the second half of the game.

**ebbearsfb1** · 04-23-13, 12:11 PM

good stuff coiner. Notice this also works pretty well with nhl team totals..

Originally posted by No coincidences

A couple of TT's to keep an eye on....

The Cubs TT is 3.5 at Pinny and they're juicing the under. It's dropped to 3 at other shops. I might take the over. I know Ex won't necessarily agree with this, but I'm not completely sold on Cigrani yet and I think there might be some runs scored by the Scrubs in this one -- especially with both bullpens being spent and the kid running up his pitch count in his debut.

The Atlanta TT is 4.5 and being juiced like crazy on the over at Pinny, but the game total is being juiced on the under and the line is creeping in COL's favor. If it moves to 5 at most books but Pinny keeps the 4.5, might want to take ATL TT under 5. Scary proposition given Jeff Francis, but let the books/line make the decision for you.

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 12:15 PM

I don't bet the NHL ebb, but that's great.

I see Colorado's TT for Game 1 is now 4 with juice on the over at Pinny, while it's 4.5 at most other books. Pinny's obviously anticipating an under in that game, given the way the TT overs are juiced yet the game total has dropped from 10 to 9.5.

**ebbearsfb1** · 04-23-13, 12:31 PM

Yeah I think this weekend ill make a fresh deposit into 5 dimes and might just do something tracking those team totals in both mlb and nhl.. it'll help me limit my plays as wrll

**EXhoosier10** · 04-23-13, 01:57 PM

You playing that total in col? Driving home and can't check #'s at pinny

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

You playing that total in col? Driving home and can't check #'s at pinny

Really fluctuated between juice on the over and under 9.5. Both TT overs are being juiced (ATL at 4.5, COL at 4). Noticed the FF ML is creeping in ATL's direction as well. I'm just going to pass altogether on that game, though I do think the Rox and under are possibilities despite the FF move.

**EXhoosier10** · 04-23-13, 02:16 PM

Played 3/4 on ff u5 at +105 and 1/4 on u9.5 lets hope that + col can make up for my 2u loss on stl

**YouHave2outs** · 04-23-13, 02:18 PM

less flips today on the card obviously, nice man. you're a quick fixer.

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Played 3/4 on ff u5 at +105 and 1/4 on u9.5 lets hope that + col can make up for my 2u loss on stl

Francis is a gascan. Good grief.

**EXhoosier10** · 04-23-13, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Played 3/4 on ff u5 at +105 and 1/4 on u9.5 lets hope that + col can make up for my 2u loss on stl

ugh

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 05:36 PM

Numbers said it all re: that total. At least you got something out of it, Ex.

Adding:

LAD -142 (2.84U to win 2)
LAA -102 (2.04U to win 2)
OAK +104 (1U to win 1.04)
PIT +144 (1U to win 1.44)
KC +166 (.5U to win .83)

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Numbers said it all re: that total. At least you got something out of it, Ex.

Adding:

LAD -142 (2.84U to win 2)
LAA -102 (2.04U to win 2)
OAK +104 (1U to win 1.04)
PIT +144 (1U to win 1.44)
KC +166 (.5U to win .83)

Adding a unit to PIT +141. Taking a chance.

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 05:57 PM

CHC TT over 3 (1.2U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 06:02 PM

LAD/NYM FF over 3 (1.15U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 06:04 PM

KC TT over 3 (1.05U to win 1)

**ebbearsfb1** · 04-23-13, 06:05 PM

Mets over 3 and over 6.5 look interesting

**italianbandit** · 04-23-13, 06:57 PM

I didn't play OAk, glad you did. Happy we bought liked it.

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by italianbandit

I didn't play OAk, glad you did. Happy we bought liked it.

Aceves is embarrassingly bad.

Adding:

LAA +103 (1U to win 1.03) -- in addition to the earlier bet
SF/ARI under 6.5 (1.05U to win 1)

**EXhoosier10** · 04-23-13, 08:07 PM

Huge under ump on that game. Not sure why i never bothered to look at it earlier

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

CHC TT over 3 (1.2U to win 1)

Unreal.

**EXhoosier10** · 04-23-13, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Unreal.

Who know Cingrani and Villanueva would combine for 15 innings. Expected 10+ K's between them, but wtf how'd they go so deep?

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Who know Cingrani and Villanueva would combine for 15 innings. Expected 10+ K's between them, but wtf how'd they go so deep?

Yeah, I don't know. Villanueva's arguably been the best acquisition in baseball so far this season. He's been lights out.

**EXhoosier10** · 04-23-13, 08:56 PM

haha leave it to Darwin Barney to get that for you. Hopefully cincy can come back and win in the bottom half off of whoever the cubs bring in. Guy can't be much better than Parra

**whtsox13** · 04-23-13, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Yeah, I don't know. Villanueva's arguably been the best acquisition in baseball so far this season. He's been lights out.

It will take until after AllStar Break for him to embrace the Cub's culture of negativity.

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 09:00 PM

Adding:

LAA FF -105 (1.05U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 09:10 PM

SF TT under 3.5 (1.2U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 09:15 PM

Don't like the late move on the SF/ARI total, Ex.

**No coincidences** · 04-23-13, 09:15 PM

ARI +135 (1U to win 1.35)

Let's see if I can bet them every game this season.

**Ralphie1412** · 04-23-13, 09:17 PM

I need a gambling secretary who recites back everything I say during the day. I was all about fading Aceves and just didnt for some reason. Oh well