mlb chase 2013

[CheeseHead]

Can we just fade the Angels all year and call it good? Lol

[illisdre]

what a year
got hammered at the stock market so bad i sold all my stocks.
lost all my mega profits from baseball last year during nba..

and now im just dying for some normalcy.

[illisdre]

Can we just fade the Angels all year and call it good? Lol

i think playing the Run Line against them is a good idea..
they can't seem to score runs well.

made some good coin off them with a run line alternate.

[J.M. Disciple]

i think playing the Run Line against them is a good idea..
they can't seem to score runs well.

made some good coin off them with a run line alternate.

whats the juice on that? +300? Some books even off -2.5 right for the other team? Could easily get +500 off that I would think. Just pick and choose very wisely.

[illisdre]

yea.. im using Pinny .. but if you want good options .. no one beats Bet365.

yesterday for instance, i took Twins -1.5 and got 3.15 or +315
Ive been a huge advocate of the -1.5 runline even though some advertise against it.

I think the key is playing it selectively as you indicate. ideally where you think the team has a chance to win big when most expect otherwise, (thus im indicating i tend to like it on a medium weight team, not a heavy favorite. better odds)

[illisdre]

the dodgers have the worst line up of batters this inning.. embarrassing.

[Grinder12000]

got hammered at the stock market so bad i sold all my stocks.

I hope that was like 6 years ago. How can you lose money in the stock market. It's been like taking candy from a baby for 4 years!

I swear any team named Los Angeles is a devil team. -180? and not even close?

Overnight lines have Dodgers at -252 OUCH!!!!

[illisdre]

I hope that was like 6 years ago. How can you lose money in the stock market. It's been like taking candy from a baby for 4 years!

I swear any team named Los Angeles is a devil team. -180? and not even close?

Overnight lines have Dodgers at -252 OUCH!!!!

Gold, Silver, Commodities, metal mining - last year has been brutal.
Stocks will have a huge correction sometime soon. economy is much worse than what obama is saying.
and thats why I'd much rather invest in sports. haha.

[samrock67]

jeez, Jason Marquis lights out tonight...who woulda thunk. someone wake up those Dodger bats, theyve drifted off...

[J.M. Disciple]

i was just looking at LAD tomorrow also. I see it at -250, but pretty much same thing. Also its mostly do to kershaw the pitcher I believe, but last time Kershaw played SD back in sept. He lost 3 - 6 and juice was -214..... I will most likely take the RL.

On the other hand, SD starting pitcher has lost 10 straight.

[illisdre]

i was just looking at LAD tomorrow also. I see it at -250, but pretty much same thing. Also its mostly do to kershaw the pitcher I believe, but last time Kershaw played SD back in sept. He lost 3 - 6 and juice was -214..... I will most likely take the RL.

On the other hand, SD starting pitcher has lost 10 straight.

those lines are killing us. im gonna run line it too.. for the simple reason of lowering the bet size. problem is dodgers bats aint working well.
if you use pinical. a -1 RL may be helpful

[CheeseHead]

Wow, already not liking the juice we are paying so far on these games. Angels killed us in our first loss, tomorrow we are paying -250 - can't afford to lose that one. Do we ever bet dogs? One M's game I think so far which cashed for us.. Good luck tomorrow guys.

[Greg242]

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[illisdre]

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oh great.. only $1000 a week.. what a steal.
how about you pay me $1000.. and i'll place the bets for you and give you the profit?

ez way to report this spammer?

[Lakey]

Wow, already not liking the juice we are paying so far on these games. Angels killed us in our first loss, tomorrow we are paying -250 - can't afford to lose that one. Do we ever bet dogs? One M's game I think so far which cashed for us.. Good luck tomorrow guys.

S3 we are never playing dogs which have been pretty much all the plays thus far.

S1/S2 will see some plays on dogs and pitching systems will as well.

[J.M. Disciple]

Please remove your post about the scammer. You are giving him free marketing that SBR can not remove.

[Stifler]

S3 we are never playing dogs which have been pretty much all the plays thus far.

S1/S2 will see some plays on dogs and pitching systems will as well.

thats not correct

S3 A bets will never have an +100 or more play. Every other series game could be well above this mark. Also talking about dogs isnt 100% right...
if a home team is -101 in the first game, road team is lets say -110, the home team does qualify (if its a listed team ofc). Still they are dogs in this game. I just wanted to clear this up.

[Stifler]

16.04.2013

S3

(B Bet) SD fade: LA Dodgers 1,526 1,90u | LA Dodgers 1,549 5,282u
(A Bet) Balti: Baltimore 1,813 1,23u

records:
S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S2: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
S3: W 28 | L 1 (-8,503 units)
P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


pending:
- S3 SD fade, C Bet on 17.04.2013


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

- i parlayed the Dodgers today with Paris Saint Germain (FRA Cup soccer). Normally not the way to play the system, but i like PSG today. I wanted to parlay ManCity first, but i like the fact that PSG gets dropped from the CL. They should be focused on winning the league and the Cup. Do not tail blindly if anyone is going to follow the parlay, just a little advice. If u wanna play it right, just play the ml on Dodgers.

17.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) SD fade: Dodgers 1,526 1,90u | Dodgers 1,549 5,282u | Dodgers + PSG 2,147 7,133u

P2

(A Bet) Masterson: Cleveland 1,752 1,33u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Grinder12000]

So basically the Dodgers are NOT a system play today and Stifler is abandoning the Chase as back tested. I don't really approve of this change but . . . . . what can ya do. He;s gone rogue.
-----------------------
F*ck of a lot of units for a "C" play! This is more like a "D" play! Stifler is taking scared mans route only risking 7 units instead of 21.

I'm not sure I can wager 60+ units on a "D" game! This is a 3 game chase for me!

[CheeseHead]

So basically the Dodgers are NOT a system play today and Stifler is abandoning the Chase as back tested. I don't really approve of this change but . . . . . what can ya do. He;s gone rogue.
-----------------------
F*ck of a lot of units for a "C" play! This is more like a "D" play! Stifler is taking scared mans route only risking 7 units instead of 21.

I'm not sure I can wager 60+ units on a "D" game! This is a 3 game chase for me!

Yeah it's not very encouraging when the guy posting the Chase plays doesn't even want to play those big odds.. I don't understand how the Dodgers wouldn't be a system play today though?

[thes0vereign]

Yeah it's not very encouraging when the guy posting the Chase plays doesn't even want to play those big odds.. I don't understand how the Dodgers wouldn't be a system play today though?

Stifler playing the parlay is not a system play. The Dodgers on the ML is still the C bet.

[BigBanker]

So if the dodgers lose tonight D bet is against BAL orioles?

[Grinder12000]

Actually what Stifler is doing is NOT a bad idea. If he loses the parlay he is out 7 units and can play a normal "D" game His parlays last year hit about 50% I think. Have to look.

So if the dodgers lose tonight D bet is against BAL orioles?

Negative thinking - not even going to think about that. Tonight using the odds of the last 3 games we SHOULD win 29 out or 30 times. 3.4% of the time we will lose.

[olmec]

Actually what Stifler is doing is NOT a bad idea. If he loses the parlay he is out 7 units and can play a normal "D" game .

What id Dodgers win and PSG lose?

[Grinder12000]

What id Dodgers win and PSG lose?

OH sorry - what if the Dodgers WIN - then he is screwed LOL

If the Dodgers lose . . .

Then he plays the "D" play pretending the Dodgers lost a 7 unit game. If I would have thought this through before I emptied my bank (lol not really but it felt like it) I would have done the same knowing absolutly nothing about soccer . . . or even what league that is. Hell, I don't even know what PSG is, a team??

[J.M. Disciple]

Actually what Stifler is doing is NOT a bad idea. If he loses the parlay he is out 7 units and can play a normal "D" game His parlays last year hit about 50% I think. Have to look.

Negative thinking - not even going to think about that. Tonight using the odds of the last 3 games we SHOULD win 29 out or 30 times. 3.4% of the time we will lose.

lAST TIME you said this we lost lol

[cwin32]

Another benefit to going this parlay is that the soccer game is this afternoon, so you'll know already if you won half of the parlay before the Dodgers game so if you want to adjust you can, but if the soccer game wins this afternoon, you get a very low cost alternative to playing Dodgers -260

[BigBanker]

I have more faith in PSG winning tonight than I do the dodgers tbh but that said I still just bet the dodgers for the proper amount

[Grinder12000]

LAST TIME you said this we lost lol

There is less then a 0.009% chance that I say that twice and lose both!

[CheeseHead]

There is less then a 0.009% chance that I say that twice and lose both!

This is almost as bad as everyone on SBR that calls their plays "locks" lol.

[bigtymer56]

So basically the Dodgers are NOT a system play today and Stifler is abandoning the Chase as back tested. I don't really approve of this change but . . . . . what can ya do. He;s gone rogue.
-----------------------
F*ck of a lot of units for a "C" play! This is more like a "D" play! Stifler is taking scared mans route only risking 7 units instead of 21.

I'm not sure I can wager 60+ units on a "D" game! This is a 3 game chase for me!

Just so you know, he did the soccer parlay with a couple of d bets last year. Not sure what the record was on those plays, but from what I remember it did save him money overall.

Anyway gl to everybody. Hopefully Kershaw will come through for us and dominate tonite.

[illisdre]

Or u could wager 7 units on psg. Take the winnings and put that total on LAD

[calebepley93]

There is less then a 0.009% chance that I say that twice and lose both!

Gambler's Fallacy.

I get what you're saying and it seems intuitive but it simply is not correct. Since the events have already happen, it doesn't change the likelihood of the Dodgers winning tonight to 99.991%.

Each chase has around a 97% chance of winning but that doesn't change the odds for C and D bets to 90+%.

Also, to complete this theme of being a debby downer, I saw you wipe your bankroll parlaying the D bets last year Stifler. To each his own but you'd be better sticking with the system.

*side note: i like that you put in all of the work backtesting and posting plays every day, props for that. The only problem I have with this system is the selection of particular teams to play. There should be a reason a winning system works and it should apply to every team every year. Picking out individual teams exposes you to more variance and risk every year, as the makeup of each team changes each year to an extent. I think you would be better posting the plays for every team and picking out the series you like. But, you did clear 100 units last year and that would take even more work so what do i know.

[BigBanker]

On another note just noticed that guy really reported me for the ''retard'' comment, Not worried but just pointing out we have a tell tail tit lol.....