mlb chase 2013

**dlunc3** · 04-03-13, 06:36 AM

crazy how bad the best teams in baseball with their aces on the mound have started this season... a bad day today, and those betting 1% units could be almost all in tomorrow on just day 4 of the season wow.. hopefully these home teams show some pride today

**Grinder12000** · 04-03-13, 06:54 AM

Damn, really bad night

You think YOU had a bad night - My team also lost AND I lost a City Council race by 40 votes!

**cwin32** · 04-03-13, 07:03 AM

Dogs historically do well in April so the past 2 days shouldn't be a huge surprise really

**Grinder12000** · 04-03-13, 07:25 AM

What is the preferred way to play cancel games. Play both sides and hop the Dog wins?

**jakejd82** · 04-03-13, 07:37 AM

Guys, I am not sure if you have followed the system in the past but there will be days when you have much more then 25 units in play. You definitely need a healthy bank roll to play this system. We haven't even lost a series yet and everyone is going off the deep end. I followed the system last year and there was multiple days where I remember having over 50 units in play. Hopefully if you are tailing this system you at least took the time to read all the stats that Stifler has given in the beginning of this thread.

**dlunc3** · 04-03-13, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by jakejd82

Guys, I am not sure if you have followed the system in the past but there will be days when you have much more then 25 units in play. You definitely need a healthy bank roll to play this system. We haven't even lost a series yet and everyone is going off the deep end. I followed the system last year and there was multiple days where I remember having over 50 units in play. Hopefully if you are tailing this system you at least took the time to read all the stats that Stifler has given in the beginning of this thread.

the reccomendation was to have a 75 or 100 unit bankroll.. sounds like 200 units may be wiser?

**jakejd82** · 04-03-13, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by dlunc3

the reccomendation was to have a 75 or 100 unit bankroll.. sounds like 200 units may be wiser?

I have closer to 400. I think 100 is a very low window. You can easily lose 30+ units for a series loss. If I remember correctly we went through a couple week stretch last year where we lost a few series, luckily the system was already up over 100 units so if you were practicing good bankroll management then it only dented your profits. People have to understand this is a very volatile system with alot of ups and downs. Dont give up yet, unless you dont have the bankroll for it, then this is probably not the system for you.

**1958** · 04-03-13, 08:48 AM

BOS and NYY are S3 teams. Why play only to fade BOS and not NYY to win? I see today CIN for two units since LAA and CIN are both S3 teams. someone please clarify.

**Grinder12000** · 04-03-13, 09:12 AM

Why play only to fade BOS and not NYY to win

ummm - those are the same thing - to fade Boston is to WIN NYY

I see today CIN for two units since LAA and CIN are both S3 teams. someone please clarify.

My bad - 2 units is correct! HOWEVER - I still have the original question as I'm sure it will come up MANY times this year.

**sportscreep1** · 04-03-13, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

ummm - those are the same thing - to fade Boston is to WIN NYY

My bad - 2 units is correct! HOWEVER - I still have the original question as I'm sure it will come up MANY times this year.

Play both sides. And hope they split right away! Haha. Like you said in previous post, make bets like a monkey, whatever Stif writes you bet.

**Ji-a** · 04-03-13, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by 1958

BOS and NYY are S3 teams. Why play only to fade BOS and not NYY to win

NYY starts the season with three home games, but this is a four game chase. So they are not qualified.

**cards2013** · 04-03-13, 11:13 AM

NYY should be a play as well as BOS fade (doesnt have to be 4 home games in a row, you can break that up too)
BAL fade should be a play
PIT should be a play

SF fade should have been a play

Somehow we are missing games...

**cwin32** · 04-03-13, 11:40 AM

Of course the games have to be in a row...that's what a road trip or home stand are lol. Otherwise, with that logic, we'd play ever game of the year

**cards2013** · 04-03-13, 11:52 AM

nevermind:

from last years thread:
they need to have atleast 4 games on the road / or @ home to qualify for a system bet. Means if a team starts a 3 game road trip and the odds in the first game are +100 or more they are not a system game, cause there are just 3 road games being played in a row. If they had 4 games they would qualify ofc.

**Ji-a** · 04-03-13, 11:55 AM

"Whenever a teams starts a home-trip and the odds are < +100 in the first game start the chase for the next 4 games."

Not next 3 games and then one game after 6 other games.

**Grinder12000** · 04-03-13, 12:06 PM

Play both sides. And hope they split right away! Haha. Like you said in previous post, make bets like a monkey, whatever Stif writes you bet.

Well - there is a smarter way to play it so you don't end up losing money automatically. Takes a little arithmetic though.

**cards2013** · 04-03-13, 12:24 PM

but S1 and 2 can be broken up like:
at home LL
on the road WWW
at home LW

and now start S2 as a 4 game chase even if they dont have 4 more games at home, like if they only have 1 and go on the road you need to start game B when they are back home

**Greg242** · 04-03-13, 12:25 PM

How long do we wait before making the LAA fade and CIN plays? While stifler post those in the thread or we make the bets on our own?

**cards2013** · 04-03-13, 12:40 PM

I guess he waits for a better line

**cards2013** · 04-03-13, 12:41 PM

make your bet whenever you think the line is right

**Stifler** · 04-03-13, 01:14 PM

- Cincinnati line added.

03.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) Oak: Oakland 1,909 1,10u | Oakland 1,719 2,92u | Oakland 1,709 7,08u
(B Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,595 1,68u | Tampa Bay 1,725 3,697u
(B Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,575 1,74u | Toronto 1,571 4,799u
(B Bet) Bos fade: NY Yankees 1,917 1,09u | NY Yankees 1,885 2,362u
(B Bet) Cubs fade: Pittsburgh 1,833 1,20u | Pittsburgh 1,769 2,86u
(B Bet) LAA fade: Cincinnati 1,787 1,27u
(B Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,787 1,27u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Grinder12000** · 04-03-13, 01:17 PM

[Are you posting this on EVERY THREAD??? Spammer? What a joke.

**kmc28** · 04-03-13, 06:04 PM

Gl us

**w@lt** · 04-03-13, 07:31 PM

Man, the Yankees really suck.

**ColdBeerHere** · 04-03-13, 09:47 PM

man, I missed the first day of the system plus the Cincy bets today....6 units I missed out on....ouch that hurts.

**808bases** · 04-04-13, 02:17 AM

Originally posted by w@lt

Man, the Yankees really suck.

Couldn't agree with you more.

**Stifler** · 04-04-13, 03:01 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

03.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) Oak: Oakland 1,909 1,10u | Oakland 1,719 2,92u | Oakland 1,709 7,08u
(B Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,595 1,68u | Tampa Bay 1,725 3,697u
(B Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,575 1,74u | Toronto 1,571 4,799u
(B Bet) Bos fade: NY Yankees 1,917 1,09u | NY Yankees 1,885 2,362u
(B Bet) Cubs fade: Pittsburgh 1,833 1,20u | Pittsburgh 1,769 2,86u
(B Bet) LAA fade: Cincinnati 1,787 1,27u
(B Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,787 1,27u

records:
S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S3: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)

pending:
- S3 Bos fade, C Bet on 04.04.2013
- S3 Tor, C Bet on 04.04.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**knugen** · 04-04-13, 03:59 AM

If any team suck, its toronto

**Ji-a** · 04-04-13, 04:53 AM

Friday could be very frightening. Two D bets in one game if NYY and TOR doesn't cover today and this TOR chase alone is expensive as fudge.

**rmorris30** · 04-04-13, 06:55 AM

your the man stifler

Nice job Stifler! Going to follow you all year! Love your tactics!

**dominate.** · 04-04-13, 07:49 AM

checking in

**Stifler** · 04-04-13, 07:58 AM

03.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,575 1,74u | Toronto 1,571 4,799u | Toronto 1,61 12,359u
(C Bet) Bos fade: NY Yankees 1,917 1,09u | NY Yankees 1,885 2,362u | NY Yankees 1,80 5,565u

________________________________________ ________________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**kosti** · 04-04-13, 08:35 AM

Has anyone looked into the profitability of starting a series at a B bet and making it a 3 game chase for the guys that might have smaller bankrolls? Obviously you miss out on a roughly 50% or slightly more of plays that end up winning their A bet, but you also lose a lot less by losing a series as you only chase B,C,D.

My bankroll is not big enough to accommodate potential multiple D bets, especially when they can get up to 30+ units. The NBA chase was much more manageable in that sense.

Has anyone done the actual math to determine this? I've tried but went cross-eyed and decided to ask instead.

**w@lt** · 04-04-13, 08:36 AM

I'm terrified to have to play the Yankees again today.. ha

**samrock67** · 04-04-13, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by kosti

Has anyone looked into the profitability of starting a series at a B bet and making it a 3 game chase for the guys that might have smaller bankrolls? Obviously you miss out on a roughly 50% or slightly more of plays that end up winning their A bet, but you also lose a lot less by losing a series as you only chase B,C,D.

My bankroll is not big enough to accommodate potential multiple D bets, especially when they can get up to 30+ units. The NBA chase was much more manageable in that sense.

Has anyone done the actual math to determine this? I've tried but went cross-eyed and decided to ask instead.

It depends on what the average loss per series would turn out to be.

Based on backtested stats, your overall record since 2006 would be 1045-55. Your average unit loss per series would have to be less than 19 units for your method to be profitable. Based on the volatility of lines and the potential number of units you can have in play on any given day, I would say you are better off just decreasing your unit size to .5% or even lower, and play conservative until you have built up enough. No one can predict how this season will go. We can only hope that there aren't too many instances where there are multiple C and D bets on the board.