Balls To The Wall: Week of Oct.6

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-09-08, 12:36 PM

Yeah I had Mathieu + Ancic for my parlay. Not sure about the ladies there. Petrova has been more consistent since the US Open. So + money probably the better wager there. JCF done against Melzer. His serve is brutal today.

**meganie** · 10-09-08, 12:49 PM

I think I'm going with Petrova. Dementieva lost in her matches to Srebotnik and Azarenka and won only close against Srebotnik again. (Of course there's also the rumour on TI about mafia, paid matches,...So, if they would pay, they'd surely pay for win of Petrova

)

Clement lost now eventually, ended up with two losses and one win in third set, fortunately the right one with Mathieu.

Ferrero also lost in straight, happy for Melzer, he deserved it.

**meganie** · 10-09-08, 02:02 PM

Nalbandian rock solid, Johansson with some easy errors, but even without them he would have had no chance. I didn't see Nalbandian making one unforced error. He'll be extremely hard to beat, if he goes on to play like that.

Plays for tomorrow as I'm expecting some line movement:
Chardy at +110: Can't understand the line at all. Kunitsyn didn't impress me against Ginepri, was lucky that the american was in a bad form and hit way too many errors. If you ask, this match was the one with the lowest level, I saw in Moscow so far. Chardy came back against Andreev after trailing one set and a break down in the second set. Should give him a boost.

Kohlschreiber at +110: Well, if you look at the stats, there's probably nothing speaking for Kohlschreiber. First tournament after his injury, easy matches for Verdasco. I'm on it small, as I'm feeling that Kohlschreiber can still beat Verdasco like Ferrero did.

Monfils at +120: Also a match, where I can't figure out, why the line is how it is. Monfils had slightly more success the past few weeks, losing on Bali against the tournament winner Tsonga, also had a good US Open, while Gonzalez went to five three setters in his last seven matches, even against much lower ranked players. The line should be at least even imo.

Petrova at +120: Dementieva had a hard time against Srebotnik in the last round, winning the match luckily in the third set tie breaker. She also lost to Azarenka and Srebotnik in her last tournaments. Petrova meanwhile had a great tournament in Stuttgart and won without any problems in her last rounds.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-09-08, 05:59 PM

FRI - Kremlin Cup

Kunitsyn -155(Chardy)
I go with this one because I believe in the inevitable let-down effect after a big win. That's what Chardy got over Andreev in the last round. Prior to that, he had been in sluggish form late in the summer & he probably had the bonus of knowing more of Andreev's game, having just played him at the US Open last month. Kunitsyn & this tournament seem to like each other as the Russian has made nice runs here in the past. Kunitsyn helped build up his confidence with a hard court tourney win prior to this tourney and then held his own last week in Mons, losing to Gabashvili. I think playing in front of the home crowd and having a slight edge in the return game leans me to take Kunitsyn.

Also 2nd day in a row, going the Mathieu & Ancic parlay. Mathieu beat the younger version of Fabrice Santoro today in Dude Sela, while Ancic's serve should beat up what looks to be a bit fatigued Kei Nishikori.

Lady Leans: Petrova +120 & Safina -165

May have some other likes/dislikes later, but Bookmaker only has some select matches up right now. Vienna Tourney especially has some great potential matches!

**meganie** · 10-09-08, 06:36 PM

No matter how the match ends, I have a feeling that the line will move toward Chardy. And also that Monfils' odds will drop.

Line for Söderling-Schüttler-match came out, if you ask me, way off, no way Söderling is worth -400. Will go for Schüttler at +300.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-09-08, 08:17 PM

Seen the other lines now.

Toss up on Monfils/Gonzo. Monfils fitness is always a question because of how much he runs, but he has had an easier route to this point. Plus money is probably a good way to go there. Kohlschreiber I want to watch in another match before I'm comfortable with him. Wish he had gotten to play Del Potro!

**meganie** · 10-10-08, 04:58 AM

Crazy Petrova.
I think if every match is going this way, I'll end up with a heart attack.
First she comes back in second set from 4-1 down a break after losing the first set to win the set with 5 straight games. Then at 1-1 in the third she has the chance to break Dementieva and doesn't and gets broken at 2-1 to come back at 2-4 and break. Eventually they go to tie break where she leads 4-2, but loses 4 straight points to make it 4-6 and then comes back to 6-6 and loses the match 6-8.
Dementieva now two times in a row VERY lucky, no way she can beat Jankovic in this mood.

Wow, Mathieu nearly spoiled my parlay. Fortunately he gave up, so at least I get my money back. He seems to be tired, he had an injury timeout against Stakhovsky, seems to have something with his foot.

If I'd bet on Troicki I'd like to chop him into ten pieces.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-10-08, 09:08 AM

Mathieu saved me as well by retiring. Got my parlay with Kunitsyn & Safina now alive.

Guess I can safely bet on Kohlschreiber now if I like him. He looks good again today. And I usually fade Verdasco on hard courts anyhow. Puzzling why I didn't go for it!

Think I'm gonna join on Monfils. More I looked at Gonzalez against Gulbis, the less impressive it was because Gulbis didn't play that well but pushed him pretty hard the first two sets. Just have to hope Monfils' serve stays solid.

**meganie** · 10-10-08, 09:19 AM

I think it's gonna be a final Melzer vs. Kohlschreiber, the old rival (Austria and Germany) and a boiling Stadthalle.

Revise my opinion on Jankovic, if she plays like that the next round, Dementieva will have a chance.

Forgot to mention, why I played Kohlschreiber, was also because Verdasco lost every match in the hard court season against a decent player. I wouldn't count a victory that high. If he plays Gonzalez he'll win, if he plays Monfils, hmmm, I don't know.

**meganie** · 10-10-08, 10:53 AM

Monfils won the first set but has an injury timeout at the moment.

Doesn't seem to be that serious, match continues.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-10-08, 11:07 AM

I think we'd both be more comfortable if he finds a way to win this in straights! Gotta keep that injury thing in mind for the next round if he makes it.

**meganie** · 10-10-08, 11:29 AM

YES!YES!YES!
Finally the break, would've gone nuts, if Gonzalez won the tie break and than the third set.

Concerning the injury, he had something with his foot, the commentator referred to Del Potro, don't know if it's the same.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-10-08, 11:41 AM

Monfils

Have to read more on this match before his next one to see what the deal is. Nice pick.

**meganie** · 10-10-08, 01:52 PM

Too bad, I already placed my bet on Chardy, you were right. Congrats!

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-10-08, 02:12 PM

I had half a mind to take Safin at +310 or thereabouts. He's up a break on Davydenko in the 3rd. Lopez with the KO on Melzer today. Surprising result there.

**meganie** · 10-10-08, 02:43 PM

Petzschner also up 5-3 against Moya in the first set. Biggest surprise for me surely Melzer losing to an out-of-form-Lopez. Davydenko isn't that surprising, he wasn't that solid the previous rounds, making too many mistakes.

Now the greatest surprise is 6-4 6-2 of Petzschner over Moya, wtf?

**meganie** · 10-10-08, 03:37 PM

Eagles, I've got two questions, I really dumb one and one that I'm curious of.

1. How fast would you rate carpet? Between the current three tournaments, I would rate the speed Vienna < Stockholm < Moscow? Is carpet faster/slower than grass and hard? Didn't find anything on that one with google.

2. Do you also have the feeling that first/second round matches are easier to cap? I've got the feeling that in the later rounds there are too many surprises, when a player has a run like Petzschner or Zverev.

Thanks for answering.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-10-08, 04:41 PM

Tennisinsight.com has court speed ratings.

Moscow: 0.75
Stockholm: 0.82
Vienna: 0.81

Lower the number, the faster the court is supposed to be. I always thought carpet would be slower than hard, but faster than grass depending on the court.

I would agree to some extent on #2. I did like Safin & Petzschner today, but didn't man up on either one - but the last couple weeks, once it's gotten to the semis or later ... the "edges" I like to find are very few and far between. Probably because most of the competition is more even OR you get a total dark horse up against a big fave. Like both Stockholm semis w/ Nalbandian & Soderling.

Generally, my plays taper off by Saturday - alot because of football to wager on as well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-10-08, 06:39 PM

SAT - Kremlin Cup

Kunitsyn -130(Santoro)
Hard to read Santoro's play here because with Mathieu retiring his one set against him is definitely questionable as to whether Santoro was playing that well or Mathieu was hurting that much. Santoro has had a surprising number of aces on serve this week and I think he'll need to pull more out of his bag of tricks to beat the home-standing Russian. Kunitsyn has been very business-like in his 3 wins here. Nothing that stands out on-serve, other than the ability to put the ball in play (especially 2nd serve). He's done quite well with his return game this week also. The pair split two meetings this year & I expect that means a tight match here. In front of the home crowd and with a shot at an ATP Final, I'll tip Kunitsyn to scrape by.

The other matches don't appeal to me from a wagering stand-point much. I'd like to take Kohlschreiber at plus money, but Monfils looks really determined. One on the ladies side that does have great value though I believe is Zvonareva at +140 over Safina. These are the two in-form players in women's tennis here in the late summer/fall. Zvonereva beat her twice this year as well, so the + money is really a nice shot here me thinks.

**meganie** · 10-11-08, 09:05 AM

Well done on Zvonareva.

3-2 for Kunitsyn, both player unable to hold their service so far.
Btw, did I mention that I hate Santoro's playing style? I know that he is a great defensive player, but his matches are so damn boring to watch, because, either he is outplayed by an opponent or his opponent makes one error after another, after he shot about 100 slices.

**meganie** · 10-11-08, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Kunitsyn -130(Santoro)

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-11-08, 10:11 AM

Nice to wake up to some wins! Monfils got the tie breaker over Kohlschreiber in the 3rd. Excellent match apparently. Might have a play for tomorrow's finals depending on the prices. Some good match-ups.

**meganie** · 10-11-08, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Nice to wake up to some wins! Monfils got the tie breaker over Kohlschreiber in the 3rd. Excellent match apparently. Might have a play for tomorrow's finals depending on the prices. Some good match-ups.

Be careful about Monfils for tomorrow. He held his knee several times. Don't know if it's just acting like he is injured, but if not, i'd stay away from it. He was acting like he was VERY tired after every point in the end of the third set.
But except for these signs, he looked like he was good in shape, he ran for every point, didn't seem to be injured.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-11-08, 11:59 AM

Probably not playing the Vienna Final. I don't think there will be much value there. Monfils is probably going to be at least a -150 favorite or much higher if Petzschner pulls out a win against Lopez.

Pinnacle has lines up for the ones I'm interested in:

Nalbandian (-150) vs. Soderling (+140)
Jankovic (-171) vs. Zvonereva (+160)

Think the Stockholm one is a great price either way you go there. Nalbandian dominates the head-2-head, but Soderling has home court advantage. Both have had an easy route to the final. Soderling's got the more dominant serve, but Nalbandian has the edge in the return game. I think I'm leaning toward Nalbandian right now because he played the lightning serve of Joachim Johansson and had little trouble with it. Soderling hasn't played anyone this week I feel that gives the looks Nalbandian will give. I'm gonna see where the price goes.

Ladies final in Moscow. Again I think Zvonereva is the value pick. Jankovic has beaten her twice in the past 3 weeks & 3 of 4 matches this year, but Zvonereva has been playing her tough in the last two (two tie breaker loss & 3 set loss) & Zvonereva seems to be the more consistent player. Jankovic dominated Dementieva in the last 2 sets, but got bageled in the first.

I think Safin beats Kunitsyn on the men's side. Kunitsyn has played well, but he's played lesser opponents and Safin could dominate with his serve. I doubt the price on Safin will make this match worthwhile though. I'd expect him at least to be -200. If it's lower, might pounce.

**meganie** · 10-11-08, 01:00 PM

Safin is -263 at my bookie.

I played Jankovic and Nalbandian. Stockholm should be clear, I think Nalbandian at -175 is great value. Söderling had an easy draw, his 6-1 6-0 victory over Nishikori shouldn't be rated to high, Nishikori was horrible. I can't see Söderling break Nalbandian, while Nalbandian has a chance to do so, if Söderling's serve isn't working.

Jankovic played crap in the first set, but after she broke Dementieva she didn't make many mistakes and had some terrific points. In that form, I can't see Zvonareva beating her. Of course there's also the chance, that we may see the Jankovic of the first set. I take the risk.
I am also adding, that Safina didn't have her best week, she made unusual mistakes in this match too. I thought that Zvonareva wasn't that impressing. Safina had her chances in the second set when she had 0-40 at Zvonareva's serv, but didn't convert them into a break.

**meganie** · 10-12-08, 07:48 AM

Adding Kiefer at +137.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-12-08, 11:52 AM

Safin is such a putz. Glad he outpriced himself so I didn't lose money on him. Nice job for Nalbandian backers.