EP36's Tennis Elbow

[EaglesPhan36]

I had Tomic advancing when we filled out brackets. Dolgo is 3-0 against him though. Consistency wise, Dolgo is still very hard to predict whether it's that blood disease or just him being a flake. A positive sign if you like Tomic here ... the TennisInsight crew is about 80% behind Dolgopolov and just from experience when the tipsters on that sight are usually all on board with a dog ... the dog doesn't fare so well.

Not sure what if anything I will play on that match though ... I just don't jive well with Dolgopolov.

[Yezzir]

Good night last night, lost small on Hradacka, whom should have easily had a set, 1/8 BP's converted and lost small on the Ito/Mahut over, as Ito flunked.

Glad I rolled with Kukishkin ML and Stephens h/cap.

[EaglesPhan36]

Isner already moved to -125 from -110. As expected. Don't think he'll drift too far, but -135 or so won't be a surprise either.

[Yezzir]

Are you leaving it, or waiting and then hitting Lopez?

[shari91]

I'm sure most of you have seen this but for those considering Tomic/Dolgo, I found this article quite hilarious and insightful at the same time.

http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/dolgopolovs-corner-boasts-rare-reader-of-tomics-game-20120119-1q8hr.html#ixzz1jukyNWRb

So what, specifically, is it about Dolgopolov that so troubles Tomic, who has lost all three previous clashes between the two? ''The physical threat,'' quips Reader, jovially, of his whippet-like 183-centimetre charge against the 195cm Tomic.

No, Jack, let's be serious. ''You'd have to ask Bernie. It's Bernie that doesn't like playing Alex. Alex likes playing Bernie.'' And why, exactly, is that? ''Because Bernie doesn't like playing him. You always like someone who doesn't want to play ya.''



Love the pic of the mullet too

[EaglesPhan36]

Are you leaving it, or waiting and then hitting Lopez?

I have to do some more research, but I think it's Isner or nothing in this one. Lopez for all his expected weaponry - serve/forehand - does not have high marks on this surface and rarely advances past the third round at the hard court Slams. I mean this match is basically power vs. power and if you ask who has the better game there .. Isner is the easy choice. Lopez can keep pace, but his serve is a lot less lethal than Isner's. I don't think the price is going to float too much as I said because if it does by some chance get out to say -140, you'll have the "value" hunters jumping on Lopez at plus money. I am going to watch the price for just a little bit longer, but Isner is most definitely a play for me and I don't really care about losing 10 or 15 cents by watching the price.

Good read Shari. If I do anything with that match, it's going to be real small.

[beefcake]

Good stuff Shari. Enjoy much more reading this stuff than the ESPN crap..

[shari91]

Good stuff Shari. Enjoy much more reading this stuff than the ESPN crap..

Yeah you get good articles down here about tennis. I actually grabbed that one after reading it on TI. But this is what I normally do at night when all is quiet. Just sit back and prowl the Internet for different insights on players before I look at the lines in the morning. Realistically I'm costing myself money by waiting to bet but if I give up my interest of the sport then I may as well quit betting it altogether.

[beefcake]

Good philosophy..

[EaglesPhan36]

Australian Open: January 19th

Isner -130
Some will be concerned with Isner's ability to bounce back after being on court for almost five hours two days ago, but I think it's still a good set-up for him. He won't be forced to work long rallies against Lopez like he did at-times against Nalbandian. So shorter points = less physical exertion. Also the weather is cooler, so the heat won't be a large factor. As I stated earlier, this is power v. power on a hard surface. If you're telling me that, Isner has better weapons and THE biggest weapon with his serve. Lopez can dominate with his as well, but he gets into double fault grooves at-times that can lead to issues. Isner always has the ability to erase mistakes with an ace.

Parlay: Paes/Stepanek + Melzer/Petzschner [-133]
Paes & Stepanek are a relatively new pairing as they got their feet wet in Chennai and almost beat the Bryans. Paes is one of the premier doubles players today and Stepanek is a guy who is really solid playing doubles, although many may not be aware of it. They should have enough to get past the Italian duo of Bolelli/Fognini. Melzer-Petzschner have become one of the premier doubles duos over the last few years and it appears based on their singles play, that both are absolutely fine with their new niche. They face Chela-Schwank. On clay, this would be a battle, but on the hard stuff expect Petzschner/Melzer to win what might be a close match.

Almagro +205
I am not drinking the fukking Wawrinka kool aid. One match against a poor performance from Baghdatis does not a large favorite make for me. Almagro has always gotten the label of clay courter due to his Spanish roots, but he's got a serve suited to hard courts and he's not lost on the surface. A few years ago, he nearly beat Tsonga here - losing in a fifth set. If you look at Wawrinka's performance against Baghdatis, he left plenty of chances out there still - 12 break opps, seven saved and several times when it looked like he should put Baghdatis away ... he would get broken back to even the match up. Almagro worked hard to beat Dimitrov, but he showed a solid serve and I think the key today is 1st serve for him. If he can avoid giving Wawrinka too many cracks at his 2nd, I really do think he has a shot. For me, this is a much more even match than the price suggests and I think before Wawrinka beat Baghdatis - the price would have been far lower here. So saddle up with the +200 dog and we'll see what happens.

Got more potentially, but this is all I have time to write-up for now. Good luck tonight.

[Yezzir]

Love the Almagro pick and the write up for Isner.

Really want to pull the trigger on Bratchikova.

[beefcake]

Do it, pull the trigger on Barthel..

[boondoggle]

1unit on Barthel..I have more money then sense

[EaglesPhan36]

I ultimately held off on Bratchikova, but I will not be surprised if she wins. I liked her quite a bit except for her experience at this level. I might be wrong, but I think Azarenka is gonna teach Barthel a lesson.

[Yezzir]

Barthel I have on the h/cap.

Pulled it small on Brat.

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding ...

Oprandi +155
There are plenty of red flags looking at Goerges' hard court history for me to take a flyer on Oprandi who should be ripe with confidence after whipping Schiavone off in straights. Oprandi had plenty of hard court success on the lower level ITF in 2011 and might be ready to translate that into a steadier stream of WTA level wins. Goerges beat her in straights in the 2010 US Open, but that was then. For all the hype on the German, she is under .500 on this surface in the past year with some puzzling losses to Oudin, Sloane Stephens, Pervak and Arn - not exactly a Murderer's Row on hard courts.

Falla-Kohlschreiber Over 37.5 [-122]
Falla has certainly proven himself at this point to be capable of beating good players on this surface. This seems one of those spots where Kohlschreiber's inconsistency may rear its ugly head and this match takes on a longer than expected four sets or more.

Garrigues +600
Mini play. Gut feeling.

[gregm]

I am glad to see you on Isner and that kohli over. I want to see some americans at least to the quarters in the mens, on the womens side Serena or Azarenka is going to crush Kvitova if Kvitova plays like she did last night.

[benrama]

Schiavone is Oprandi's only ever top 50 WTA scalp on hard court, agree that Goerges is very inconsistent but I think the odds on her factor that in already.

Weighing up the Falla vs Kohlscreiber over too, but Falla is also the same guy who can lose 6-1 6-0 to Kamke ... but current form is pretty much the #1 factor in capping so you'd have to say Falla can take at least one set, and hopefully not give up any at 6-0 or 6-1.

[Yezzir]

Please serve this out Azarenka, and the h/cap will be covered.

[EaglesPhan36]

I really think this is Azarenka's shot this year. She's going to have to contend with another hot day somewhere in the tournament - probably around the QFs if she is there ....

[Yezzir]

With the winnings off of that, i've gone for the over in the Waw/Almagro match.

Also done a risky double in Isner/Jankovic.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good luck sir. Thinking Oprandi may have spit the bit on her shot to win this one now that she got broken in the 2nd. Figuring Goerges probably will find a way to win in 3, but hoping maybe she'll cough it back up.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not a good start for Isner. Broken in the 5th game. 1st set pretty much done unless Flodonis starts playing with his hair.

[EaglesPhan36]

Isner should be on ESPN as soon as this Illinois-Penn State craphole is done.

[EaglesPhan36]

Aye ... Federer instead. Surely Isner will get lots of face time though after Fed takes this set.

[EaglesPhan36]

Fawk. Talking some mess about Isner's foot being a problem

[gregm]

Horrible set by Isner, hope that Nalbandian match didnt take it all out of him. He just seemed dead in that set.

[gregm]

Roof closing a little , they said rain may be on the way. Lopez serving very strong

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah is Isner misses this 2nd set, I don't see him having a shot in hell. His 2nd serve is terrible so far.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nikky Mugs draws first blood with a break. Let's go Mugro!

[gregm]

How is isner going to ever get a break the way he is moving? He will have to win this match in tiebreaks and if he doesnt get his first serve in, hes going to face a good chance to be broken.

[Bbr]

Nikky Mugs draws first blood with a break. Let's go Mugro!

Break back. Typical mugs.

[MUHerd37]

Come on Wawrinka!

[Bbr]

break back to back?

[EaglesPhan36]

Falla back to brick shithouse mode tonight. I need a set fukko!

Almagro blew that set twice. Fukk face.