It feels like it has been a very long time but it's great to be back posting again in the tennis forum. It's good to see that most of the regulars were having some success with the masters series events since Wimbledon. I made a couple of bets here and there on those events but haven't really bet much tennis since Wimbledon. With the amount of upsets that I have seen lately though I am considering the lack of tennis betting a blessing. Would have been costly.
I've gone through the men's bracket for the US Open and noticed that there were some very interesting matchups, especially early in the tournament. As always I play one or two outrights as my main bets and I will throw in one of two huge dogs just to make things interesting. The huge dogs have never won a major but it's still fun to follow them through the tournament. For my draw analysis below i've split it up once again into the four quarters with a prediction for each. I have seen some real nice props with regards to "stage of elimination" or "Player winning quarter" and I think I will take a shot at a couple of them.
1st Quarter
This is Nadal's quarter and I don't see him having any problems making it to the quarterfinals. At this point he will face either Verdasco, Nalbandian, Gulbis or Ferrer. Verdasco and Ferrer are not great on hard courts so you could probably cross both of those off the list right off the bat. I know everyone is in love with Nalbandian but I don't see him as a player that has the ability to push through these best of five set matches over a two week period without wearing down. Gulbis is too inconsistant to take a serious shot with. You are getting a price for Nadal of around -190 to win this quarter and Nalbandian is about +450. You have to say this is Nadal's quarter to lose and I think he will win the quarter but at a price of -190, I don't know if that is a bet that many people would want to do. I myself am not scared off by these types of prices so the Nadal to win the quarter bet is an outright that I am considering.
2nd Quarter
This is another quarter with only a couple of players with a real chance of winning it. I have never considered Isner as a player to bet as an outright to win a major but the fact that he is coming into this tournament with a potential injury makes avoiding him even that much more a sure thing. Youzhny is a player that I could possibly see getting to the quarterfinals but he is also a player that I wouldn't be surprised if he was knocked out in the first round. That leaves basically Murray, Berdych and Sam Querrey for this quarter. I am not really sold on Querrey being able to endure a best of five set match over a two week period so I can see him losing in probably the fourth round to Murray. This quarter will likely be a Berdych/Murray final in which I would have to side with Murray here. Andy's price is -130 to win this quarter of the draw and that seems fair. Berdych has been hit or miss since Wimbledon so the -130 price on Murray might be even that much better if Berdych gets upset early.
3rd Quarter
Out of all of the quarters, this one is by far the most wide open. There are probably five or six players that are capable of coming out of this portion of the draw and the price on some of these players is very very nice. Obviously Djokovic is the favorite of this quarter but his fitness in long matches is always suspect. In the fourth round he will likely face Baghdatis or Fish and both of those players are capable of beating Djokovic. Personally I am not as high on Fish and Baghdatis as some other members of this forum so I figure that even if one of them was able to get past Djokovic and into the quarterfinals, I think that they would lose to either Roddick or Daveydenko. Roddick has owned Davydenko in their careers with a 6-1 record vs Nikolay. The odds for the quarter show that Djokovic is +177 to win it and Roddick is +193. In their career head to head Andy is 5-2 vs Djokovic and has won the last 4 meetings. Roddick is definately the better play of the two here BUT something to consider is that these two met recently in Cincinnati and Roddick was a +196 underdog which basically means if you like Roddick to win this quarter and think that it is likely he will have to beat Djokovic in the quarterfinals to do it that it is better to just not bet Roddick to win the quarter and to just bet Roddick's quarterfinal match. I am guessing that Roddick's line may be a bit less at the US open though then at Cincinnati so you could bet it either now or later I guess.
4th quarter
Roger Federer looks to have a fairly easy ride to the quarterfinals here. I don't know what it is with Hewitt but it seems that every major he has to face Federer and Roger beats him pretty much every time. The only other player standing in Roger's way is Soderling who has beaten Federer the last two times that they have played. With Roger being a -250 favorite to win this quarter he is definately not worth betting. You could take a chance on Soderling to potentially pull the upset of Federer here but it will probably not be worth it. Gotta think Federer advances here.
To advance to the semifinals in my bracket I have Nadal, Murray, Roddick and Federer. I know it's not really exciting but that's usually how these majors end up. I'm having alot of trouble picking who I like to win the match between Nadal and Murray. From looking at the outright market now, Murray is +380 to win the US Open and Nadal is +390 to win it so odds wise you pretty much have to side with Nadal here. Murray has yet to win a slam and I feel he is greatly underpriced here at +380. Federer is currently +235 and that is a definate no play for me. With the inconsistancies in Roger's game over the last year and a half I just feel more confident in betting on someone to beat Roger late in a major then Roger to win the major. With that being said I am going to take Nadal and Roddick as my two outrights for this tournament. I know that Andy will probably never win another slam but his price of +3100 is just way to good to pass up for a player that looks like he will definately get to the quarterfinals. From there anything can happen
Outrights
Nadal +390 and Roddick +3100
Best of luck over the next two weeks guys. It should be a great tournament. I'll have some plays for monday posted here soon. Some good matches tomorrow
I've gone through the men's bracket for the US Open and noticed that there were some very interesting matchups, especially early in the tournament. As always I play one or two outrights as my main bets and I will throw in one of two huge dogs just to make things interesting. The huge dogs have never won a major but it's still fun to follow them through the tournament. For my draw analysis below i've split it up once again into the four quarters with a prediction for each. I have seen some real nice props with regards to "stage of elimination" or "Player winning quarter" and I think I will take a shot at a couple of them.
1st Quarter
This is Nadal's quarter and I don't see him having any problems making it to the quarterfinals. At this point he will face either Verdasco, Nalbandian, Gulbis or Ferrer. Verdasco and Ferrer are not great on hard courts so you could probably cross both of those off the list right off the bat. I know everyone is in love with Nalbandian but I don't see him as a player that has the ability to push through these best of five set matches over a two week period without wearing down. Gulbis is too inconsistant to take a serious shot with. You are getting a price for Nadal of around -190 to win this quarter and Nalbandian is about +450. You have to say this is Nadal's quarter to lose and I think he will win the quarter but at a price of -190, I don't know if that is a bet that many people would want to do. I myself am not scared off by these types of prices so the Nadal to win the quarter bet is an outright that I am considering.
2nd Quarter
This is another quarter with only a couple of players with a real chance of winning it. I have never considered Isner as a player to bet as an outright to win a major but the fact that he is coming into this tournament with a potential injury makes avoiding him even that much more a sure thing. Youzhny is a player that I could possibly see getting to the quarterfinals but he is also a player that I wouldn't be surprised if he was knocked out in the first round. That leaves basically Murray, Berdych and Sam Querrey for this quarter. I am not really sold on Querrey being able to endure a best of five set match over a two week period so I can see him losing in probably the fourth round to Murray. This quarter will likely be a Berdych/Murray final in which I would have to side with Murray here. Andy's price is -130 to win this quarter of the draw and that seems fair. Berdych has been hit or miss since Wimbledon so the -130 price on Murray might be even that much better if Berdych gets upset early.
3rd Quarter
Out of all of the quarters, this one is by far the most wide open. There are probably five or six players that are capable of coming out of this portion of the draw and the price on some of these players is very very nice. Obviously Djokovic is the favorite of this quarter but his fitness in long matches is always suspect. In the fourth round he will likely face Baghdatis or Fish and both of those players are capable of beating Djokovic. Personally I am not as high on Fish and Baghdatis as some other members of this forum so I figure that even if one of them was able to get past Djokovic and into the quarterfinals, I think that they would lose to either Roddick or Daveydenko. Roddick has owned Davydenko in their careers with a 6-1 record vs Nikolay. The odds for the quarter show that Djokovic is +177 to win it and Roddick is +193. In their career head to head Andy is 5-2 vs Djokovic and has won the last 4 meetings. Roddick is definately the better play of the two here BUT something to consider is that these two met recently in Cincinnati and Roddick was a +196 underdog which basically means if you like Roddick to win this quarter and think that it is likely he will have to beat Djokovic in the quarterfinals to do it that it is better to just not bet Roddick to win the quarter and to just bet Roddick's quarterfinal match. I am guessing that Roddick's line may be a bit less at the US open though then at Cincinnati so you could bet it either now or later I guess.
4th quarter
Roger Federer looks to have a fairly easy ride to the quarterfinals here. I don't know what it is with Hewitt but it seems that every major he has to face Federer and Roger beats him pretty much every time. The only other player standing in Roger's way is Soderling who has beaten Federer the last two times that they have played. With Roger being a -250 favorite to win this quarter he is definately not worth betting. You could take a chance on Soderling to potentially pull the upset of Federer here but it will probably not be worth it. Gotta think Federer advances here.
To advance to the semifinals in my bracket I have Nadal, Murray, Roddick and Federer. I know it's not really exciting but that's usually how these majors end up. I'm having alot of trouble picking who I like to win the match between Nadal and Murray. From looking at the outright market now, Murray is +380 to win the US Open and Nadal is +390 to win it so odds wise you pretty much have to side with Nadal here. Murray has yet to win a slam and I feel he is greatly underpriced here at +380. Federer is currently +235 and that is a definate no play for me. With the inconsistancies in Roger's game over the last year and a half I just feel more confident in betting on someone to beat Roger late in a major then Roger to win the major. With that being said I am going to take Nadal and Roddick as my two outrights for this tournament. I know that Andy will probably never win another slam but his price of +3100 is just way to good to pass up for a player that looks like he will definately get to the quarterfinals. From there anything can happen
Outrights
Nadal +390 and Roddick +3100
Best of luck over the next two weeks guys. It should be a great tournament. I'll have some plays for monday posted here soon. Some good matches tomorrow
.. get em cakes