Stacocakes Wimbledon Thread

JNic · 06-30-10, 08:16 AM

wow zvonareva in both semis, surprising

Stacocakes · 06-30-10, 08:17 AM

Have a mens quarterfinals match going on but thanks for showing the end of the williams match and talking about it now.Who the **** cares if they lost their doubles match.Get back to the Federer match

TennisBabe · 06-30-10, 08:34 AM

ESPN thinks the world revolves around the Williams sisters

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 08:41 AM

Feddy gonna make life difficult again.

kop1987 · 06-30-10, 08:43 AM

omg... just placed a big bet on federer ML... dun tell me he is going to lose his match?? HAIZ!!

obie · 06-30-10, 08:46 AM

Yes he is .. Stupid

SRBI · 06-30-10, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by TennisBabe

ESPN thinks the world revolves around the Williams sisters

Them two are the ugliest specimens of 'female' I've ever seen with my eyes. They look like SU gorillas

Stacocakes · 06-30-10, 08:50 AM

Wow Federer is down 2 sets to 1.This would be great for Djokovic outrights if Federer lost

kop1987 · 06-30-10, 08:51 AM

stacocakeds.. took ur advise on federer and i think my big bet is gone... =( hope federer can win something

SRBI · 06-30-10, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Wow Federer is down 2 sets to 1.This would be great for Djokovic outrights if Federer lost

Stacocakes · 06-30-10, 08:54 AM

Kop I still have faith in Federer to come back here. I didn't tell you to bet him though you just asked me if Federer had a chance to win haha.I didn't bet Federer myself only Nadal today

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 08:54 AM

Don't count the Fed out just yet. Staco, you riding that Murray future today? Didn't see a need to hedge on Tsonga myself. He could win, but will need to play an outstanding match to do so, I think.

Stacocakes · 06-30-10, 08:58 AM

Riding both my Djokovic and Murray futures.If they can both get to the semis then I will think about what could be done with each.Not really sure what I will do yet.Depends if there are any upsets today

kop1987 · 06-30-10, 08:59 AM

how is federer playing?? tomas seems to be playing very well

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 10:01 AM

Federer is finished as a useful play even in Slams now. I wonder if books will start adjusting to get more action on his matches in the future or if they'll just hope John Q. Public will still pound his ridiculously high lines. Can't imagine they want too many days where people cash +400 winners. This tournament more than any other I think has shown that there are now probably at least 10-15 players on the ATP side who can pretty regularly have a chance to beat him at ANY tournament if they are playing high quality tennis.

kop1987 · 06-30-10, 10:08 AM

gone.. my $500 bet is gone.. federer doesnt even seems to put up a fight

Stacocakes · 06-30-10, 10:26 AM

Can't believe that Federer went out so easily. Losing the third set 6-1?Cmon now. He was to high of a price for this match and I agree Eagles that the books have to start moving his lines down even more because they are going to get hit hard. His matches used to be around -1200 or so for many of the matches or even worse and then slowly moved to around -700 and now they are around -400 to -500 in those same matches and it's just to high. When he was losing in this match there was some value down a set and a +150 dog or whatever he was but his prematch odds are getting to the point of unbettable. His groundstrokes have been killing him the last couple of years. Any long rally Fed always bags the shot into the net or hits it wide.Happens all of the time.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 10:29 AM

Hoping to bag an in-play for one of these two matches right now. Wish I had been around to grab Nadal after the 1st set as I am sure the price was plus money.

Stacocakes · 06-30-10, 10:49 AM

Nadal gets the break in the third set

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 10:53 AM

May jump on Murray after he loses this tie break if the price is decent.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 10:55 AM

Murray now -155. Why not.

Stacocakes · 06-30-10, 11:03 AM

Murray better not screw us here Eagles.This will be as good a chance as any for him to get a slam

Has a break point right now and he gets it. Nice

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 11:05 AM

Yep. First set was just a high quality one from what I can tell and Tsonga did better in the breaker. Murray's serve is what has impressed me so far at Wimbledon. It's been a lot more solid that it has been in the past.

Stacocakes · 06-30-10, 11:15 AM

Murray blows the break. unbelievable

Soderling calls for the trainer as Rafa is about to serve for the set.Good gamesmanship

What takes a trainer so long to get to the court?Can they not have a trainer for each match?Where is he coming from?

Stacocakes · 06-30-10, 11:22 AM

Of course just as I am walking out the door Rafa blows it serving for the set.Geez

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 11:46 AM

Murray snags the 2nd set, 7-6.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 12:10 PM

Nadal

Good work buddy. Murray up an early break in the 3rd.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 02:54 PM

I think I have the hedge for Rafa vs. Murray. If Murray wins, obviously we're riding high at +900 whatever you got [+925 for me] in the final. Same book has Rafa at +147 to win Wimbledon. If he wins then you're getting a better price on Rafa in the final than what the line will be against Djokovic or Berdych. If he loses to Murray, then it's just chipping +100 or +200 off the Murray future depending on units wagered.

Whaddya think?

Stacocakes · 06-30-10, 03:57 PM

Nadal cashes

Hmm something interesting to think about Eagles. We have another day break till the men play again so we have time to think about this. Nadal is around +130 to win wimbledon at Betfair though so it doesn't look as good for me.The number must have been hit hard since you posted. A possibility is betting the player Not to win Wimbledon which right now for Murray is -330 or for Djokovic is -480.What makes this way better is its less work haha. If you were betting the way you mentioned above how much would you put on Rafa to win Wimbledon? If you bet on Rafa to win just to cover your murray outright if he loses then you have hedged the bet but you would have Nadal to win the tournament and if he doesn't win then you lose the murray outright AND the Rafa outright. I'm going to put some numbers together and see what I come up with here. Will let you know by tomorrow some options with some betting numbers which would make it easier to follow

Always good to figure out how to guarantee some money in these situations.Would hate to see Berdych and Nadal go to the final and everyone ends up with nothing after the two week wait haha

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 04:43 PM

I was thinking two units on Rafa. I have one on Murray. So if Rafa wins then I essentially have two units on him in the final at +147 and could appropriately play the other side in the final for two units as either Djokovic or Berdych will be a dog against Nadal. Let's say for example Djokovic advances and is a +140 dog against Nadal. I'd have two units on Rafa at +147 for a potential payout of 2.94 units. Two on Djokovic for +140 for a payout of 2.80 units. So if I am doing my math correct [heh] then the profit off that match would be either 2.94 or 2.80 units MINUS the original two unit investment on the player who ends up losing. So either +0.80 or +0.94. Of course in all this, I'd lose my original unit on Murray so it'd be a slight loss.

If Nadal loses, then the Murray outright would be +725 [subtracting the two units from the Rafa future]. Still a solid number on Murray for the final and then I'd have to calculate what to do on the other side to make a profit.

That hurt my brain.

Stacocakes · 07-01-10, 04:09 AM

I'm not a fan of the price of either women's match for tomorrow so I am going to pass on both.I think both favorites win but the lines are just to inflated.

Since I have both Djokovic and Murray outrights I think the best play for me at this point would be to bet on Nadal and Berdych to win Wimbledon which would cover all four bases for me. Nadal is around +128 right now and Berdych is +560 so it should guarantee some good profit if I bet both of those to go along with the Djokovic +4900 and the Murray +950 outrights that I currently have.Will come up with the exact calculations tomorrow.

Best of luck tomorrow if you guys are going to bet on the women's matches

PetrGasparik · 07-01-10, 05:12 AM

I bought Nadal at 2.4 in live bet. It was one of that lucky moments

Stacocakes · 07-01-10, 11:57 AM

Nice hit Petr.Nadal at plus money is always a great bet. He won that last match over Soderling fairly easily after dropping the first set

Both women's favorites won today.Not really surprised but the odds weren't worth it

beefcake · 07-01-10, 12:06 PM

For the record,I'm playing the under in berdych/Djoker. Why?

When each player usually is -juice the totals are usually set at 38.5 to 39.5,maybe 40-41 if its to big servers.Getting 42.5 is so much value Its not even funny.Its obvious that the book set the totals higher in these matches in the later rounds becasue its "two good players" and big names.But throw all that out the window,over the long haul its about the prices.Yes it may go 4-5 sets with breakers,but thats what the books want you to think..Joe Public just sees a titantic match up and cant see who to pick and right away says.."Hell,their both great players,no way this doesnt go 7-6,6-4,7-6,6-4 at least,over!!" That kind of thinking will kill you long term.
I have no idea who will win,but would not surprise me in the least to see either one kick the others ass big time in this.

raydog · 07-01-10, 11:24 PM

im just following along...between you, fw and sforz, i can get the dogs a new bag of kittles n bits this week