Shari's tennis plays

[Gee]

AFL is my money game.

needless to say i cannot wait.

[JayDelight729]

Yeah, I thought about Vinci quite a bit but something doesn't sit well with me about that match. Not sure what it is though. I'm going to stay away but I can understand your desire to take Vinci as a dog here. Best of luck if you do!!

Decided to play it for half a unit. The + odds, 1-0 career record vs opponent, and Petrova's poor form... enough factors for me to play it. Still thinking about the Bartoli match as well... any thoughts on the over there?

[lasker]

Dimitrov is looking like a total amateur out there. Missing by a couple miles every other shot. When he's good, he's very very good but when he is bad he is horrid.

[JayDelight729]

Dimitrov is looking like a total amateur out there. Missing by a couple miles every other shot. When he's good, he's very very good but when he is bad he is horrid.

Yep, he's playing like absolute garbage. Overhitting basic groundshots.

[shari91]

I haven't watched it yet but that line movement is a bit suspect. Does he look like he's blatantly not trying or is he just crapping out innocently?

[lasker]

I haven't watched it yet but that line movement is a bit suspect. Does he look like he's blatantly not trying or is he just crapping out innocently?

Blatantly not trying. Dimitrov just lost the first set 6-2 and hasn't even won a single point on return

[shari91]

Blatantly not trying. Dimitrov just lost the first set 6-2 and hasn't even won a single point on return

Someone on another site said earlier in the match that this likes a nice money earner for Dimitrov. Lose the match but make money from fixing it than he would've by winning it.

This is why line movement is messed up in tennis. His price dropped considerably and so did Nieminen's so I'll be interested to see how they both finish off. Very screwy things happening in the Middle East already

[lasker]

maybe there is still hope. he just won his first point on return! And another! (ok, from Gasquet's double fault, but at least Dimitrov didn't challenge the second "fault" call...)

[shari91]

maybe there is still hope... he just won his first point on return!

[JayDelight729]

Looks a lot better this set. Like a switch went on.

[lasker]

Looks a lot better this set. Like a switch went on.

Yup, he's looking like he actually cares now. Unfortunately Nieminen just lost the first set though after being broken three times

[shari91]

Looks like I'll start the day 0-3 at this rate. Really this is why I absolutely ignore line movement. Two of those plays had the line drop 30 cents or so in their favour within the last hour or so and most likely neither of them will win unless Nieminen makes a miraculous comeback which I highly doubts happen.

Let the fade train continue!!

[noober]

there was no suspicious line movement so don't blame dimitrov for fixing. he is still young and needs to get more experienced to play the bigs guys consistently.

[shari91]

there was no suspicious line movement so don't blame dimitrov for fixing. he is still young and needs to get more experienced to play the bigs guys consistently.

I'm not blaming him for fixing. That's why I asked the question as to how it looked out there in the first set. I am laughing at those who continue to think line movement is the path to riches in tennis. It doesn't work long term. I've tested it long enough to know that even the slightest bets in some markets can drop the line on smaller matches if the liquidity is low enough. I try to preach it but I've given up recently.

[noober]

yeah, very tough to decode line movement in tennis. sometimes it's a fix, sometimes it's not. but i am always afraid to go against big moves even though prices start to look very tempting on the other side.

[Mirar Baseball]

did you buy out of your bartoli wager?

[shari91]

did you buy out of your bartoli wager?

No. I hit "loss" by accident and didn't want to delete the pick as it looks dodgy on the spreadsheet so I just put it as a push for the time being.

If I ever buy out of a posted wager, I always post it in here USUALLY LIKE THIS. I never buy out and keep quiet about it. Not cool when people do that.

[Mirar Baseball]

thanks for being so transparent (and quick!) about this... just picked the bet back up at +210

obviously doesn't look all that great, but hey, it's early... AND IT'S WTA MAN

[shari91]

thanks for being so transparent (and quick!) about this... just picked the bet back up at +210 obviously doesn't look all that great, but hey, it's early... AND IT'S WTA MAN

I just figure we should all be here to help each other out, whether it's someone who starts a thread or someone who posts in here. Unless I'm planning after all this time to try to charge you guys for picks (when I'm on the worst run I've had in probably 3 years) there's no point in my being sneaky. It's variance. I'm not changing anything and I'm not disappearing from my thread. I don't highlight when I'm doing well and I don't highlight when I'm doing badly. After running at an amazing clip, the past 5 days are bringing me back to a normal level. It sucks, but I'll live and I'll still be here at the end of it. Thankfully those who have tailed would still be up close to 38 units since the middle of Jan (and more after my awesome Sydney run which I didn't track in my spreadsheet) if they stuck with me play by play without any massive plays thrown in.

For what it's worth, Marion's now up a break and just consolidated it. Maybe this can be one of the rare WTA matches that just goes nicely and she kicks Kleyb's ass.

[lasker]

Nice call on Bartoli

[Mirar Baseball]

go fix the spreadsheet! you are shortchanging yourself!

[BetaB]

Yay winner.

[smitshah]

hey shari do you ever bet on doubles?

[shari91]

hey shari do you ever bet on doubles?

Very rarely. Once in awhile I'll throw a heavy favorite in a parlay during a Slam but I honestly don't keep up with it enough to make a decent bet otherwise.

[smitshah]

yeah they are very risky, how do you feel about davydenko's odds tomorrow?

[shari91]

yeah they are very risky, how do you feel about davydenko's odds tomorrow?

I'm just starting to look at matches now. I'll let you know what I think in a litlle bit.

[shari91]

UPDATED RECORD: 76-62-1 55% +37.46x

[MatI]

ATP Dubai · Round 1
TROICKI vs KOHLSCHREIBER
1st Set Total Games: 9 or 10 Games @ 2.00

and perhaps Total Games Over (22.5) @ 1.83


What ya think Shari?

[Just Blaze]

I am liking the O22.5 in this match as well, both their H2H matches last year went over this total, one of them in 2 sets. I think this one goes 3, Kohlschreiber has been serving pretty well this year, he should have a legit shot at winning this.

[Brian891]

Is llodra a good value play at +600? novak has only lost 3 sets thus far and im not sure how to read players. will he suffer an aussie letdown? any insight would be welcomed. i was thinking about possibly putting novak in a parlay, but i noticed llodra beat him in last matchup.

[shari91]

yeah they are very risky, how do you feel about davydenko's odds tomorrow?

I'm seeing odds here of $1.37-$1.43. No hope in hell would I ever touch him at those odds here. He's on a 5 match losing streak and in all of those he was the odds favourite. I'm not saying he's going to lose here because honestly as soon as I saw that price, I stopped looking into that match but there's no way I'd touch it. I'd personally wait to see if he can win as the bookie's favourite again first before betting on him.

[smitshah]

haha thanks a lot, do you have any leans today so far?

[shari91]

ATP Dubai · Round 1 TROICKI vs KOHLSCHREIBER 1st Set Total Games: 9 or 10 Games @ 2.00 and perhaps Total Games Over (22.5) @ 1.83 What ya think Shari?

The 9 or 10 seems like a good bet at first glance but that really is pure gambling. So many things can happen to screw that score up either over or under and this being the first round, it's a tough call. I do like the over but that almost seems too easy as well. Plus I'm terrible at totals so the fact that I like it, might be a good sign for you to jump on the under!

[shari91]

haha thanks a lot, do you have any leans today so far?

I go through matches based on the first tournament to start for the night. So far I'm up to Troicki/Kohl and I'm not playing anything yet I don't think. I'll let you know

[MatI]

Yeah, im starting to agree on the 9/10 games. It really could be anything. Still leaning on the over.