TennisBabe's '10 Picks

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-14-10, 10:50 PM

You gotta play somewhere besides Bookmaker for tennis. You're losing 10 cents at least every match. 5Dimes is a great tennis book for Americans. Good funding options if ya catch my drift without me giving out too much.

**TennisBabe** · 04-14-10, 11:14 PM

My book still doesn't have lines up but from what I have from other shops I'm liking:

Fernando Verdasco
David Ferrer
Juan Carlos Ferrero

No plays though until I see lines in my book

**TennisBabe** · 04-15-10, 12:20 AM

THURSDAY PLAYS
YTD: 75-41 +70.79

Tommy Robredo +125
Risking 2.00 to win 2.50

Fernando Verdasco -110
Risking 5.50 to win 5.00

Juan Carlos Ferrero -170
Risking 3.40 to win 2.00

David Ferrer -320
Risking 3.20 to win 1.00

**christyh7** · 04-15-10, 12:27 AM

On them with you. Good luck today TB!

**TennisBabe** · 04-15-10, 12:28 AM

Adding...
Albert Montanes +190
Risking 1.00 to win 1.90

WTA BARCELONA
Yaroslava Shvedova (-185)
Risking 1.85 to win 1.00

GOOD NIGHT ALL. Might sleep in with these picks and check up in the morning.

**bballs84** · 04-15-10, 12:31 AM

**vmchockey** · 04-15-10, 12:33 AM

Tailed all but Ferrer. Too much juice for me. TY!

**ironchef69** · 04-15-10, 12:35 AM

**Pride** · 04-15-10, 12:38 AM

I am with you on all except Montanes.

**MathewXB** · 04-15-10, 12:38 AM

I am all over these with you. Hopefully they cash but I am only worried about one so I did not play it. Fancy that GL to you TB, and well me too.

XB

**jnickell100** · 04-15-10, 12:54 AM

Does anyone know why 5dimes post their ML plays??

**squintz4** · 04-15-10, 12:56 AM

Tailing most of these with you TB. Lets make some paper while we sleep. BOL!

**shari91** · 04-15-10, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by MathewXB

I am all over these with you. Hopefully they cash but I am only worried about one so I did not play it. Fancy that GL to you TB, and well me too. XB

Just out of curiousity, which one are you worried about? (I like getting insight from people in here because it's a very real possibility that I may have missed something when I looked at the matches).

And thank you TB for the picks!! Going to make sure I look at my bets before hitting confirm this time so I don't have a repeat of last night.

**Checkerboard** · 04-15-10, 01:02 AM

thx tb + gl

**JW Cash** · 04-15-10, 01:03 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Just out of curiousity, which one are you worried about? (I like getting insight from people in here because it's a very real possibility that I may have missed something when I looked at the matches).

And thank you TB for the picks!! Going to make sure I look at my bets before hitting confirm this time so I don't have a repeat of last night.

Stay away from those high priced parlays Shari....

**Goat Milk** · 04-15-10, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by TennisBabe

THURSDAY PLAYS
YTD: 75-41 +70.79

Tommy Robredo +125
Risking 2.00 to win 2.50

Fernando Verdasco -110
Risking 5.50 to win 5.00

Juan Carlos Ferrero -170
Risking 3.40 to win 2.00

David Ferrer -320
Risking 3.20 to win 1.00

Robredo, I like, I can't see Tsonga beating Ferrero.

Verdasco is a gutsy pick. Berdych has had his number lately, and Berdych is easily playing the best tennis of his career. That win over Fed gave him all the confidence he needed. Verdasco should beat Berdych easily on clay, seeing that he's a supposedly a much better clay court player. I think Verdasco has figured Berdych out by now and should come up with a win. The only thing that's makes me hesitant of taking Nando is his lack of focus and mental weakness when he gets down. I may be leaning towards the over in this match.

Monte is tired, I don't see him beating Cilic, even though he's the better clay player.

**shari91** · 04-15-10, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Robredo, I like, I can't see Tsonga beating Ferrero. Verdasco is a gutsy pick. Berdych has had his number lately, and Berdych is easily playing the best tennis of his career. That win over Fed gave him all the confidence he needed. Verdasco should beat Berdych easily on clay, seeing that he's a supposedly a much better clay court player. I think Verdasco has figured Berdych out by now and should come up with a win. The only thing that's makes me hesitant of taking Nando is his lack of focus and mental weakness when he gets down. I may be leaning towards the over in this match. Monte is tired, I don't see him beating Cilic, even though he's the better clay player.

Thanks Goat!!!

The only one I'm a little hesitant on is Montanes and that's because I think he may not have anything left in the tank after yesterday.

Although after just checking my book, the fact that the odds are exactly even for Berdych/Verdasco is a bit of a worry for me as well. I may take the over on that one instead of trying to pick the winner. Hate seeing equal odds in tennis - it always scares me off.

May do a LITTLE parlay again. Not sure though. Probably used all my parlay luck for the next decade yesterday. Too bad those winnings were blown on the NBA today. Never again. If you even see me go into that thread other than to wish people luck, please shoot me virtual style. Thanks.

**brko** · 04-15-10, 01:45 AM

you're tempted shari? heh, after loss yesterday (lousy STL didn't cover) i think i'll cool a it from parlays. if you parlay, i wish you good luck.

**shari91** · 04-15-10, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by brko

you're tempted shari? heh, after loss yesterday (lousy STL didn't cover) i think i'll cool a it from parlays. if you parlay, i wish you good luck.

Only tempted to put like $5 on one

.

But nah, think I'm going to stay away from them for a long, long time now.

**crokkettt** · 04-15-10, 01:52 AM

i can see you are all on verdasco for todays match. i am going to book berdych this match hoping he will add his third win in a row against verdasco. and the fact that they both played 9 times against each other with 6wins for berdych makes me feel more comfortable with the pick. crokkettt against the public, wishing you good luck with the big card today tennisbabe, except the verdasco pick

**Pride** · 04-15-10, 02:03 AM

Shari we could try out luck again on a big parlay with robredo being the gamebreaker haha. I am up huge after banking on the Warriors/Magic/Suns

It was way too brutal to see tons of people throw away their money on a picks that are made with little research. I mean LB's justification at the time of his betting on Utah was "Why not".

Of course I peg you for someone who looks into everything on your own and uses leans as more of a backer to your groundwork already made.

Btw why did you go with the Jazz? I didn't even go with the suns spread, I straight up went ML. Always curious about other people's reasoning.

As far as tennis goes for tonight. I am thinking a possible parlay of Cilic/Ferrero/Robredo. I do not see Montanes pulling through after yesterday and I really like Robredo.

With the Verdasco match, I am leaning towards Verdasco winning but if my book offered the o/u I would think hard about the over. It is a tough call both ways because as goat said, Verdasco can lose focus but he is the better clay player so you would think if he plays how he is capable of on this surface then it shouldn't get to that point.

Strong plays
Cilic
Robredo
Ferrero

I have not had a lot of time to look into the Ferrer match. Anyone have any input?

**crokkettt** · 04-15-10, 02:07 AM

Originally posted by Pride

Verdasco can lose focus but he is the better clay player so you would think if he plays how he is capable of on this surface then it shouldn't get to that point.

yesterdays results have shown us that the clay is very hard and the "better clay player" hasnt as much advantage than you might think. berrer won against the better clay player monaco as well... lets see and hopefully enjoying a great tennis match.

**Pride** · 04-15-10, 02:11 AM

That monaco match was brutal. I was glad I held off on placing a bet.

**Goat Milk** · 04-15-10, 02:17 AM

I think Ferrer is not worth putting in a parlay or laying -300 on him would be ridiculous. He's not -300 material against ljub.

Right now I'm liking Ferrero a lot.

**shari91** · 04-15-10, 02:18 AM

Originally posted by Pride

Shari we could try out luck again on a big parlay with robredo being the gamebreaker haha. I am up huge after banking on the Warriors/Magic/Suns It was way too brutal to see tons of people throw away their money on a picks that are made with little research. I mean LB's justification at the time of his betting on Utah was "Why not". Of course I peg you for someone who looks into everything on your own and uses leans as more of a backer to your groundwork already made. Btw why did you go with the Jazz? I didn't even go with the suns spread, I straight up went ML. Always curious about other people's reasoning. As far as tennis goes for tonight. I am thinking a possible parlay of Cilic/Ferrero/Robredo. I do not see Montanes pulling through after yesterday and I really like Robredo. With the Verdasco match, I am leaning towards Verdasco winning but if my book offered the o/u I would think hard about the over. It is a tough call both ways because as goat said, Verdasco can lose focus but he is the better clay player so you would think if he plays how he is capable of on this surface then it shouldn't get to that point. Strong plays Cilic Robredo Ferrero I have not had a lot of time to look into the Ferrer match. Anyone have any input?

.

Well, since it's TB's tennis thread, I won't get into my justification for the Jazz pick but needless to say it was obviously the wrong one. I had it since last night, and was quite surprised when other's jumped on, but if they had played as well as they normally do at home, even without Boozer, I'd obviously be much happier right now although Tennis last night (for me) and MLB definitely saved my butt. Congrats on your NBA wins today!!!

Definitely am going to take the Verdasco over as I said earlier. Think that's the best way for me to play that match without dying a slow death from stress!

I'll throw in a little on the parlay you posted, just for the fun of it. Although I hate parlays, they definitely provide some much needed excitement when I'm struggling to stay awake at 3am to watch the matches.

**Goat Milk** · 04-15-10, 02:32 AM

Juan Carlos Ferrero -205* vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

**Puda** · 04-15-10, 02:39 AM

noob question, but when TB says " Risking 1.00 to win 1.90", how much $$$ money is that? and also what does the term units equate to?

**AzNDooM** · 04-15-10, 02:46 AM

I know that this is a given, but any thoughts on Michael Berrer possibly beatin Nadal at the price its paying?
Im thinking of putting down $20 bucks as a value bet but would anyone just think thats a waste?

**AzNDooM** · 04-15-10, 02:47 AM

Oh and yeah that was kind of funny for shari91 but hey it all worked out on the parlay. You've gotta get lucky sometimes.

Look forward to seeing you all on the forum in an hour ^^. Thanks again TB for all the picks.
Congrats on the Florida / Boston Picks. NIce winners

BTW, I hope you dont mind if we chat in your thread shari91/Goat Milk/Pride etc... and discuss your picks while in your thread, i know its a tad rude but your thread just seems to be the place to be and its easier since every1 is already on it.
Hope its okay and again keep the picks on coming. You have a natural talent at calling games and it starts to make my spreadsheets and calcuations wonder, do numbers really mean anything anymore?

**crokkettt** · 04-15-10, 03:03 AM

Originally posted by AzNDooM

I know that this is a given, but any thoughts on Michael Berrer possibly beatin Nadal at the price its paying?
Im thinking of putting down $20 bucks as a value bet but would anyone just think thats a waste?

i posted this play already in my thread. i got berrer at a very high handicap +7.5 @ 1.80 to win 2.00units ! will maybe raise the wager if berdych can win his match. good luck !

**Tommy_de1st** · 04-15-10, 03:10 AM

GL everyone

**hels** · 04-15-10, 03:53 AM

Fernando Breaking 1-Love !!!!!!! Bestest way to start!

**hels** · 04-15-10, 04:01 AM

Originally posted by AzNDooM

I know that this is a given, but any thoughts on Michael Berrer possibly beatin Nadal at the price its paying?
Im thinking of putting down $20 bucks as a value bet but would anyone just think thats a waste?

$20 paying $1100 (Pinnacle) is certainly an amazing payoff and one can think, "stranger things have happened."

You should check into if Nadal retires it pays off or returned/what stage of the match if he retires it pays/returned.

I think the value comes from the size of your bankroll. E.g., if you have a roll of 100 units and 1 unit = $100 then $20 is 0.2 units thereby if you played this 50 times it would only have to win once to bring positive return where the 50th play would equal a total of 10 units spent.

Saying that, you would have to make this play a substantial amount of times before it will pay off. You have to think that if you made this play once per week over the course of a year would you be happy only winning it once. That would mean betting upwards of $1000 before an $1100 return.

I hope all these numbers are somewhat helpful. To sum it up, is it a valuable investment to risk $1000 before winning $1100? Thinking that this play wins 1/50 and not 1/55?

**Goat Milk** · 04-15-10, 04:08 AM

waste of money, nadal easily roles.

**shari91** · 04-15-10, 04:32 AM

Hey guys -

Just woke up from an accidental, but obviously much needed, nap.

AzN, betting on Berrer for any amount other than $1 would probably be a bit silly, imo. I love seeing those odds too because the thought of them hitting are awesome, but the chances of this one hitting are pretty slim hence the crazy odds. Maybe put $15 of that $20 on Berrer +7? Or on him to win a set?

Watch Nadal loses and I look like a complete arse!

Good luck those on the Verdasco match. I took the over only so I'll be cheering him on for you!!