[Hardcoar]

It's a no-bet if there ever was one, but Simon definitely the right pick at these odds, despite recent events...

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding ...

Stuttgart: Mattek-Sands -140

[EaglesPhan36]

Finally a day this week about the break even mark!

Overall Profit: +2.81

[tevari]

Good work. I'm eying 3 dogs tomorrow: any likes? (so I can fade it...since it'll be a double mint play)...only kidding.

Hanescu +115 - it's the only tournament he really shows up for, and won it a few years ago. extremely high motivation in front of the romanian crowd

Giraldo +160 - don't like that much but tisparevic has been beyond dreadful this season.

Robredo +1.5 sets - Should be around even money or so ..Berdych's issues well documented and there probably isnt a hotter player on tour other than maybe Gulbis with Robredo.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll letcha know later. I usually don't start looking till late in the evening after the other sports are done for the night.....

Double Mint plays are THE DEVIL!

[tevari]

Yea, I think they are 2-43 lifetime on the forum.

[EaglesPhan36]

Shan't be playing any of these, so you appear safe from the Doublemint curse. Not a huge fan of any of 'em after looking, but only the Robredo one is one I probably wouldn't play if I felt froggy about these. Have a feeling Berdych is going to take care of the business.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 25th
Bucharest: Youzhny-Hanescu Under 22.5 [-115]
Parlay: [Stuttgart] Ivanovic + [Barcelona] Almagro [-125]
Stuttgart: Kerber -150 *Risking 0.75 units
Barcelona: Klizan +120 *0.5 unit

[tevari]

Have a little herp-derp square parlay for Thurs.

Wager Type : Parlay (3 team)
Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 100.00 / 144.98(USD)
Accepted : 4/24/2013 8:01PM - PST

#1) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : N. Almagro
Time : 4/25/2013 4:35:01AM - (PST)
Line : -540
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.
#2) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : J. Monaco
Time : 4/25/2013 2:05:01AM - (PST)
Line : -390
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.
#3) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : WTA Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : A. Kerber
Time : 4/25/2013 4:35:01AM - (PST)
Line : -155
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

[CaptainOmar111]

Nice to see u EP with Ivanovic I will go with her too

[tevari]

parlay hit, but i shoulda coulda woulda bet dracula on his home turf.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +5.31

Klizan still pending and I still think the shit dikk will blow it.

April 26th
Bucharest: Troicki-Rosol Over 22.5 [-113]
Barcelona: Almagro -155
Stuttgart: Ivanovic +4.5 [+102]

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding...

Nadal-Ramos Over 18 (-108)

[EaglesPhan36]

I knew I was hoping for Ivanovic to lose in 2 for a reason. Gonna blow the spread you twat.

[CaptainOmar111]

I knew I was hoping for Ivanovic to lose in 2 for a reason. Gonna blow the spread you twat.

I was going to pick her +5,5 @-200 but scaring made me miss this !!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks MaSha for sucking hard enough to cover this!

[EaglesPhan36]

Split on the day. Likely done for the week.

[Tsonga]

Adding...

Nadal-Ramos Over 18 (-108)

Too bad - I thought it had a chance...would have preferred to take Ramos at a handicap games over the under though...both would have lost though.

Hoping for a big Milos comeback win against Robredo...I am looking forward to seeing how he stacks up against Nadal this year on clay.

[Regul8er]

I dont follow tennis like you guys......but Robredo, what a blast from the past. I remember this guy from like 10 years ago, and certain he was a top 10 type player!

[EaglesPhan36]

Actually liked some stuff, so giving it a go.

April 27th
Barcelona: Raonic Total Games Won Over 8 [-105]

[Allen24]

Sharapova and simon thoughts?

[EaglesPhan36]

April 28th
Bucharest: Rosol -155

[tevari]

I also have Rosol in a parlay but the odds just don't make sense. Kind of regret putting him in.

[EaglesPhan36]

Was no need to regret a weiner.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +5.07

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Munich Mini-Preview
Mostly a field with the Eastern euros suiting up this week as the Spaniards & most of the top names take the week off. Plenty of Germans playing at home this week which makes this intriguing as usual.

Tipsarevic Quarter
You know the tournament is going to be up in the air when Mr.T is your top seed. His form has been poor for most of the season since the foot blisters bit him in Australia. Plenty of floaters in this quarter where I don't see Tipsarevic coming through to the semis. He has a bye and then sees either Zemlja or Bellucci - if Bellucci doesn't flake out. In the bottom part of this quarter, it looks wide open. Brands v. Kamke and Monfils v. Melzer. I could realistically see any player in this quarter moving to the semis. I'd expect the unexpected.

Kohlschreiber Quarter
Kohlschreiber should be expected to show up for this and continue what has been a pretty decent run on dirt. After his bye, he could get Baghdatis or a qualifier. Youzhny, Stepanek & Troicki litter the bottom part of this qauarter. Although Troicki made a little noise last week, his inconsistency showed again when Rosol rolled him in straights. I think this quarter is Kohlschreiber's to lose and I do expect him to make it out of here to the semis and I think he is a good bet to potentially be in the Final.

Haas Quarter
Haas may be one of the Germans who benefits from the home atmosphere. He did not look ready to go in Houston in a beatdown courtesy of Berankis. I would expect better here where he made the semis last year. He's got a tough draw though with either Nieminen or Gulbis up first, either of whom is going to be tough. If he survives there, fellow-German Florian Mayer could be the likely QF opponent. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mayer or Haas emerge from this quarter ... the winner of Nieminen-Gulbis though will be a darkhorse semifinalist candidate for sure.

Cilic Quarter
Cilic should has his run of this quarter and he made the Finals here in 2012. Davydenko will provide a test for him though and there's no telling if Dolgopolov will be activated into an actual threat or not. This is one of those spots where that dipshit could sneak up on you. He has the potential to be in the QFs to block Cilic's advancement. Overall though, I think Cilic looks like the likeliest to come out of this quarter if he shows up motivated to defend his points here.

Predictions
It could very well be a repeat of last year's Final with Kohlschreiber & Cilic. Being a fairly wide open tournament and 250s sometimes bringing questionable motivation levels, they're both available at nice odds to win: Cilic +500 and Kohlschreiber +800. I'd feel comfortable spending some on both.

1st round injury fades to consider: Monfils & Bellucci. Monfils retired with a lower back issue in Bucharest and I still don't think is close to 100% fitness. Melzer is a short favorite @ -125. Bellucci withdrew from Barcelona with an undisclosed injury. Saw one site that mentioned a possible hip issue - or it could have been his pussyitis flaring up again. Zemlja is +130 currently. Other fades depending on the qualifiers who advance: Troicki & Baghdatis. I don't see the motivation for Troicki at a 250 event with Masters events coming up. Baghdatis has been battling shoulder issues this season and hasn't played in almost a month and not on clay at all. He did win a few here in 2012, but the balky shoulder is a definite reason to avoid backing him early & perhaps fade depending on opponent.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 29th
Munich: Kamke +170
Oeiras: Kuznetsova-Lepchenko Over 21 [-104]

[Hardcoar]

Mostly insightful write up. Interesting read. Thanks!

Also on Kamke.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Nice read

[EaglesPhan36]

One of those break even days.

Overall Profit: +5.07

[EaglesPhan36]

Injury update, Bellucci pulls out of the Munich tourney.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 30th
Oeiras: Berlocq -126
Oeiras: Andujar-Haase Over 22 [-108]
Munich: Bachinger +110

[EaglesPhan36]

Waited for the drift ...

Melzer +104

[EaglesPhan36]

Thinl I should quit trying to figure Monfils out and just avoid his matches.

[tevari]

^

I haven't bet on any of his matches for the last 12 months and intend on keeping it that way. Though I did hit a nice little absolutely derp-y parlay today: WTA

BTW EP, I think you notice this too - when I don't post plays they seem to hit, as opposed to when I do. What's up with this phenomena?


Wager Type : Parlay (2 team)
Wager Status : WinRisk / To Win Amount : 100.00 / 521.00(USD)
Accepted : 4/30/2013 4:32AM - PST

Won : 521.00Amount Paid : 500.00121.00 has been forwarded to ticket # 56599445 - 1#1) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : WTA Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : R. Oprandi
Time : 4/30/2013 4:35:01AM - (PST)
Line : +130
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.
#2) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : WTA Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : M. Puig
Time : 4/30/2013 6:00:01AM - (PST)
Line : +170
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.