Badger picks vol.X

[Honeybadger44]

Haven't been posting anything relevant for a while now. Let's see if I still got it


ATP Montpellier Q
Mathias Bachinger +104
Bemelmans often overrated. I just don't think he has any edge over Bachinger in this spot. German seems to be a better equipt for some first strike tennis that is so important at indoor tournaments. His serve is bigger and will take more chances with an agressive return on second serves.


ATP Sofia Q
Stefano Travaglia -110
Was fan of Gerasimov in past, but not this season. He is playing a very mediocre tennis which will not cut it vs Travaglia. Stefano can hold onto his serve, but will also get bunch of shots back in play during baseline exchanges and does not give many free points away.

[ThinkingTrip]

Agree with Bachinger. Can't see why he should be underdog, as he is in best form atm. The only advantage Bemelmans have here is him being the fresher of the two.

I don't agree with Travaglia tho. I like Gerasimov as the underdog pick here, as he is the better player on the surface and looked more solid in his first round match than Travaglia did.

[Honeybadger44]

Thank you for chiming in. Regarding Gerasimov, as I said, watched most of his matches this year. To be precise, all 6 of them. He did look slightly better last week in Quimper and yesterday vs Arnaboldi, but that is still way below his best. And I believe that with his agressive style, he has to be really on top of his game to get past a quality defender. And I don't think he's there yet. Therefor, I thought Travaglia should be somewhere in -125 range. Value was there at -110 imoh, i like the match up and I expect it to close worse then that, so I had to jump on it.

[Honeybadger44]

ATP Montpellier
Marcel Granollers +167
Karlo starting the season strong and, but is now way overpriced. Being a very solid returner and someone that can deal with opponent's net approaches, Granollers is a very ugly matchup for Ivo.

[Jeff_Black]

Looked at Granollers but left it because it was indoors. Agree that Ivo shouldn’t really be that short at all
If he gets into his serves and grabs a tb set Granollers can break him down

[leetreaper]

Subscribed!

[Honeybadger44]

Looked at Granollers but left it because it was indoors. Agree that Ivo shouldn’t really be that short at all
If he gets into his serves and grabs a tb set Granollers can break him down

Yeah, indoors usually favors big servers, but it depends how fast the surface is. From what I've seen in Montpellier, it's not among the fastets. Which gives more chances to returner to break serve.

Subscribed!

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[Honeybadger44]

ATP Montpellier
Marcos Baghdatis -3 / -105
In depth analysis not needed. Vesely is playing awful lately. And I'm not changing that opinion after a narrow win over Griekspoor in Davis cup. It was just not a very good match. Baghdatis might be playing some lower level tourneys lately, but he played some solid indoor tennis. Including comprehensive win over Halys today.

ATP Sofia
Dimitar Kuzmanov +1.5 sets / +185
Have to take a shot here. Kuzmanov might be better suited for clay courts, but center court in Sofia is on a slower side and allows guys like Kuzmanov to rally a little bit. Combining that with the fact that he is playing in front of his home crowd and theory that Haase should never be trusted with this type of juice, this is some nice value.

ATP Sofia
Istomin/Berrettini under 23.5 / -111
Watched both of Istomin matches in Davis cup where he failed to impress imho. Berrettini is simply on much higher level atm and based on their quality and current form alone, I believe he should win this one in straight sets. But, he also might come into this one completely flat, after playing davis cup tie in India past weekend. Also, Sofia courts doesn't seem to be very fast either, so possibility for tie breaks is not as big. Bottom line, there is just too many reasons that are not supporting such a high total.

ATP Sofia
Laslo Djere +1.5 sets / -115
Not really understanding this one. Sure, Djere started the season slow when we look at his results. But those performances were not that bad really. He battled it out vs Anderson in Pune. Then played some solid tennis vs inspired Struff, right until the retirement. He is also often underrated on hard courts, where he is not as comfortable as on clay. but can still perform on a decent level. Kukushkin is not someone that shold be trusted with this type of lines.

[Honeybadger44]

ATP Sofia
Stefano Travaglia +3 /-110
Playing very good tennis. Can serve and rally. Struff with a solid Australian campaign, but he is too reckless to be trusted with covering games in such situations. There is just too many times, when he will drop a 3-6 set, and many of his sets end in tie break. Possible upset, or a close win by Struff with Travaglia covering.

[europe_baller]

Lets go ...

[Honeybadger44]

Lets go ...

[Honeybadger44]

ATP Cordoba
Jaume Munar -164
Too big of a quality gap between these two. Andreozzi is well equipt to beat the bums in challenger tour, who like to fall on their own sword, but he can't throw much at talented player like Munar.

Budapest challenger
Norbert Gombos +109
Watched both of these two guys quite a lot in the opening month of the season. Griekspoor getting a lot of respect from the market on challenger tour, which he is not justfying with his performances lately. Loss vs Vesely in Davis cup was not that great either. Gombos is a very dangerous opponent in fast indoor conditions.

ATP Montpellier
Filip Krajinovic +3.5 / -111
Goffin did nothing this season to get this type of respect. Krajinovic is a very solid player that will get him a good run for its money. This line shoulnd't be higher then +2.5

[leetreaper]

Great picking bud! Whats next? Update?

[Honeybadger44]

Great picking bud! Whats next? Update?

Thanks man! No worries, will post some stuff as soon as I find something worth posting. There should be couple of picks for tomorrow.

[Honeybadger44]

Budapest challenger
Uladzimir Ignatik -156
Kolar is a decent player. Can strike the ball well at times, but doesn't have the patience needed to build the point properly vs a quality player like Ignatik, who is really good at changing it up and taking the pace out of the point with backhand slice. Also, he is a better serve/return player and simply better overall. I don't see an upset here.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Cordoba
Jaume Munar -164
Too big of a quality gap between these two. Andreozzi is well equipt to beat the bums in challenger tour, who like to fall on their own sword, but he can't throw much at talented player like Munar.

Noticed he was a pick 'em against Cecchinato. Was he any good? Surprised to see the odds even.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Budapest challenger
Uladzimir Ignatik -156
Kolar is a decent player. Can strike the ball well at times, but doesn't have the patience needed to build the point properly vs a quality player like Ignatik, who is really good at changing it up and taking the pace out of the point with backhand slice. Also, he is a better serve/return player and simply better overall. I don't see an upset here.

While Ignatick is “ok” hes a giant Dickhead as well. I never know which ignatick shows up. Good luck

[Honeybadger44]

Noticed he was a pick 'em against Cecchinato. Was he any good? Surprised to see the odds even.

He was good. Very talented up and coming player with a lot of potential on clay courts. But being favored vs Ceccinato is still bullshiit. I guess it has a lot ot do with Marco speending the weekend in India with the Davis cup team. He's lucky that he has to play his first match on thursday, but noticed that majority of the players who had to travel longer after davis cup ties, exited rather early. Jarry, Basic lost in first rounds, Garin withdrew.

While Ignatick is “ok” hes a giant Dickhead as well. I never know which ignatick shows up. Good luck

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Challenger tour is filled with dickheads. There is nothing to do about it. Gotta be more careful with big favorites and factor the dickhead level into the line, but I'm against compeltely avoiding players or a league, because they had an occasional meltdown or two in the past. It happens on ATP tour as well.

[Honeybadger44]

ATP Montpellier
Gulbis/Albot over 22.5 /-110
Gulbis always on the edge of madness. Nice win over Hurkacz in striaght sets, but Albot has a really good game for indoors. His first strike tennis is very decent and he has good enough hands to deal with power shots in fast conditions and just redirect it. Juiced 23 is more approprite line here imho.

Budapest challenger
Filip Horansky +103
Baldi is definitely the one who will take the initiative and be more aggresive player. But I don't think he's in good enough form to pull it of vs a very decent and underrated counter puncher like Horansky.

Budapest challenger
Pavel Kotov +194
Taking shot with a the super talented youngset, who enter this season really strong. Bublik is also very inconsistant player, who can get from hero to zero in no-time. I believe that Kotov can keep this one close throughtou the match.

[leetreaper]

Nice, good luck!

[europe_baller]

[QUOTE=Honeybadger44;28405818]ATP Montpellier
Gulbis/Albot over 22.5 /-110
Gulbis always on the edge of madness. Nice win over Hurkacz in striaght sets, but Albot has a really good game for indoors. His first strike tennis is very decent and he has good enough hands to deal with power shots in fast conditions and just redirect it. Juiced 23 is more approprite line here imho.

Budapest challenger
Filip Horansky +103
Baldi is definitely the one who will take the initiative and be more aggresive player. But I don't think he's in good enough form to pull it of vs a very decent and underrated counter puncher like Horansky.

Great picks..Played Horansky live 2nd set and match.. worked out great and got 3 setter as well on albot.. Nice job and analysis

[Honeybadger44]

Nice, good luck!

Cheers
[quote=europe_baller;28406133]

ATP Montpellier
Gulbis/Albot over 22.5 /-110
Gulbis always on the edge of madness. Nice win over Hurkacz in striaght sets, but Albot has a really good game for indoors. His first strike tennis is very decent and he has good enough hands to deal with power shots in fast conditions and just redirect it. Juiced 23 is more approprite line here imho.

Budapest challenger
Filip Horansky +103
Baldi is definitely the one who will take the initiative and be more aggresive player. But I don't think he's in good enough form to pull it of vs a very decent and underrated counter puncher like Horansky.

Great picks..Played Horansky live 2nd set and match.. worked out great and got 3 setter as well on albot.. Nice job and analysis

Thanks Bro! Hope we can keep it rolling
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[DavidGoliath5003]

Nice hits earlier... did you witness that Dickhead Ignatick? Up 5-2 3rd set and loses the match. Guy can never be trust. Atleast not as a favorite

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks!

Yeah, that one was ugly

[Honeybadger44]

ATP Montpellier
Denis Shapovalov -145
He seems really comfortable in these conditions. Fast enough to get some free points of of his serve, but not too much, so he can show of some of his rallying ability. Herbert struggled for set and a half with the amount of shots that Ivashka was able to bring back into the court yesterday. Same could happen today, with Shapovalov being able to add some more heat to it and hit more winners then Ivashka.

Budapest challenger
Viktor Galovic +2.5 evens
Not enough respect indoors for Galovic who have the right combination of serve, power baseline game, but not being overly aggressive and give opponent free points. Bublik is more error prone and doesn't have much to throw at Galovic that croatian couldn't handle. This is going to be a close one.

ATP Cordoba
Pedro Cachin +121
Played some great tennis this week. Hometown hero. Probably not getting enough respect, based on a perception that he didn't deserve the win over Pablo Carreno Busta, who was 1 set up when he retired. But I actually thought he played a very solid tennis up until that point. Londero is probably a more acomplished challenger tour player, but I believe that this is another story, because Cachin is really playing tennis of his life atm.

ATP Cordoba
Guido Pella +3 / -107
Center court in Cordoba seems to be very sandy and there are some weird bounces from time to time. Also, this is a late afternoon match, which will be played in cooler conditions. I think this situation is very good for Pella who is known for his consistancy from the baseline. He will try to wear opponent out with volume of shots into deeper half of the court, playing with some nice margin and not commiting mistakes. His athletic ability to run down everythin is pretty amazing as well. That is why I really don't expect Schwartzman to have an easy task here.

[Honeybadger44]

ATP Rotterdam Q
Denis Kudla +234
Seems like this one is set too wide. Rublev done nothing so far this season to get this much respect imho. Ugly loss vs Herbert in Montpellier doesn't look good in Kudla's resume, but he had a decent Aussie campaign in January. Believe he can make this one way more interesting then expected.

[Honeybadger44]

ATP Montpellier
Tomas Berdych -167
Quality difference between these two is wider. Berdych did survive a thriller vs Krajinovic yesterday, but I still think he is playing on a high level at the moment and will have an edge over Herbert in baseline rallies. That is something Shapovalov wasn't able to do yesterday with too many errors and low 1st serve percentage.

[nuxx??]

Thought on Medvedev - Monfils? I havent watched Medvedev this week, Monfils seems to be in pretty good form, watched his last 2 matches.

[Honeybadger44]

Thought on Medvedev - Monfils? I havent watched Medvedev this week, Monfils seems to be in pretty good form, watched his last 2 matches.

Tough one. I guess the more patient one of the two will come out on top here. Neither of them is comfortable stepping forward and trying to win the points by hitting through the opponent. And whoever does it, I think he decreases his chances to win the match, considering defensive ability of both and slow playing conditions in Sofia.
Medvedev actually struggled vs Haase, because the dutch was so passive that he had to do more then just run side to side and retrive.

Yes, Monf seems to be filing it. If I'd have to guess, I'd probably go with him, but I'm probably going to get involved in-play, once I see the strategy of both.

[Honeybadger44]

ATP Buenos Aires Q
Cameron Norrie -164
I think he's slightly underrated on clay. He is well suited to play on this surface, considering his loopy top spin forehand, which is difficult to deal with, especially for one handed backhand opponents. Also, his court coverage is top notch, bringin bunch of shots back in play. Regular challenger level player like Martin are just not in his league, despite all the clay court experiance.

[Honeybadger44]

ATP Rotterdam Q
Peter Gojowczyk +2.5 / +102
Going again vs Rublev. He needed a long time to break through Kudla yesterday and he is getting even tougher challenge here. This is pretty evened up match up in my eyes. Gojo can both serve and hit it flat through opponents defense at any time.

[Honeybadger44]

Mathias Bachinger +104
Stefano Travaglia -110

Marcel Granollers +167

Marcos Baghdatis -3 / -105
Dimitar Kuzmanov +1.5 sets / +185
Istomin/Berrettini under 23.5 / -111
Laslo Djere +1.5 sets / -115

Stefano Travaglia +3 /-110

Jaume Munar -164
Norbert Gombos +109
Filip Krajinovic +3.5 / -111

Uladzimir Ignatik -156

Gulbis/Albot over 22.5 /-110
Filip Horansky +103
Pavel Kotov +194

Denis Shapovalov -145
Viktor Galovic +2.5 evens
Pedro Cachin +121
Guido Pella +3 / -107

Denis Kudla +234

Tomas Berdych -167

Cameron Norrie -164

Peter Gojowczyk +2.5 / +102

W/L: 13-9-1
staked: 26.75u
profit: +3.59u
yield: 13.42%

[Honeybadger44]

Cherbourgh CH
Carlos Tabarner +129
This guy is being underrated on hard courts. He is coming with 3 consecutive losses, which definitely affected the line. Watched all 3 of those matches. He was even up with Kotov in Koblenz. Decent vs Gombos in Rennes, but struggled with fast conditions and ability of his opponent to really flatten out his shots and really hurt the spaniard with his pace. And can't really downgrade him much for Brancaccio loss in Quimper, because the opponent was ona evry high level that day. Lamasin did collect couple of wins playing challengers in Australia. But Tabarner is overall a better and more talented player. And I don't think Lamasine can do similar thing that Gombos did couple of weeks ago, because his and Tabarner's game are quite similar.

[Honeybadger44]

Cherbourg CH
Raul Brancaccio -2.5 / -102
Neither of these two will probably enjoy these fast conditions. But I still think that Brancaccio gets this one comfortably, considering his performances in january, where he did really well at indoor hard. This is his breakout season, so his name still doesn't command that much respect. I believe that is why linemakers were tentative about lining him as a bigger favorite.

[Honeybadger44]

ATP New York Q
Popyrin/Schnur over 24 evens
I usually stay away from betting overs when the line is so high, but I actually think that this one is bit low. I would line this one up at 25, because we have everything needed for a close, high total match. These black courts in New York play very fast . Both guys have a big serve and are coming of probably best starts of the season in their careers. Popyrin with a great result at AO, while Schnur collected nice number of wins at challenger level. Both should have no problems holding their serve in this one. Scoreline should be close and coould go either side in the end.

ATP New York Q
Ramkumar Ramanathan +111
Didn't expect him as an underdog here. Has a big serve and likes to come to the net after it, which is difficult to deal with in fast indoor conditions. On top of that, he can play from the baseine as well. Not being overly aggressive and commiting errors.

ATP Buenos Aires
Nicolas Jarry -1.5 sets / +164
Last week loss definitely affected this line. He lost to Londero who went ahead and actually won that tournament. But also, it was kinda expect from Jarry not to be on top of his game after a participation for a Davis cup team in Austria that weekend. Right now he should be rested and aclimated and is gettign opponent that is talented, but is not playing his best tennis at thi moment. If Jarry is close to his 100% here, he should win in straight.

ATP New York
Noah Rubin +118
Don't understand the excitment over Jordan Thompson in this spot. His game is not that well suited for fast conditions. Only his first serve maybe, but his basline groundstrokes have too much top spin on them. This is Rubin's home tournament, where motivation should be high. Didn't play last week challenger to get ready for this.