Stacocakes Wimbledon thread

**Stacocakes** · 06-26-09, 02:25 AM

Looks like I am just going to bet in-play with these matches for friday.I can't find any lines that are really jumping out at me pre-match.
Seppi/Andreev is a toss up
I think Haas will beat Cilic but not enough to want to bet it
Robredo/Sela I liked Robredo to win at -137 but he is 0-2 head to head vs sela.Not sure how that is even possible haha
Fish/Djokovic - Novak will win but it won't be that easy I am afraid
Verdasco/Montanes - Like verdasco here of course but with odds over -1000 its not worth it
Tsonga/Karlovic - I have Tsonga futures but I am scared about this match.Of course if it goes 4 or more sets Karlovic will run out of gas but with Ivo you can always have those matches that end up 76 76 76 with him winning.Hard for anyone to get points off Ivo's serve. Passing on this but hope Tsonga can pull it out somehow
Soderling/Almagro - I like Robin here but the odds are to high once again
Fed will walk through Kohl
Razz/zvonreva - I like Zvonreva here but she is 2-4 head to head vs Razz plus Razz is on fire coming into this match.I will pass on this one
Bartoli/Shiavone - 3-1 schiavonne head to head. Both playing well coming in. Passing on this
Cibulkova/Vesnina - 2-1 vesnina head to head. Don't trust either here.Total toss up as line suggests
Dementieva/Kulikova - Elena will win but at -950 no chance in hell I am betting that
Azarenka/Cirstea - I actually am liking azarenka to maybe win this tournament.Love her in this match but the odds are to high so will pass.She will win though
Petrova/Dulko - This match will be your classic let down match for Dulko.Coming off her big win against Sharapova I don't know if she will be able to handle Petrova. 2-2 lifetime but Petrova has won the last two matches. No play but I like Petrova here
Hantuchova/Sugiyama - I don't trust Hantuchova at all.She has had so many problems closing out matches in her career. I think she wins here but not willing to lay the lumber
Serena/Vinci - easy serena win.Line is unbettable

Best of luck tomorrow guys

**Stacocakes** · 06-26-09, 11:20 AM

I had a bad feeling about Tsonga today like I mentioned above and of course that came to a reality.Geez. I've taken Karlovic in other slams before and all he did was continually let me down so the one slam that I finally say forget it I am not betting this guy again in a slam and he is on his way to the quarter finals.Now he is going to be up against another player I have Verdasco and that is going to cause problems as well.If his serve is on he could even take out Federer.
The other matches pretty much have gone as planned so far.Hopefully Djokovic doesn't get knocked out to
Hopefully you guys have had a better day

**SBR Lou** · 06-26-09, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

If his serve is on he could even take out Federer.

No kidding, that's why I was pulling for Tsonga this morning. Still though it is not out of the question to have Verdasco take care of Dr. Ivo, but he will need to make the most of his opportunities as his best effort might not be enough if Ivo's 1st serve is dropping in like we're accustomed to seeing. I also like how Karlovic seems more scrappy on the return now as well, I'd be willing to bet he made some changes to his fitness training as he doesn't seem dead when it goes past a 3rd set anymore.

**Karayilan9** · 06-26-09, 09:51 PM

That Karlovic was a malfunctioning machine, however, Dr Ivo has been working hard on finding a solution and seems to have re-wired this beast into the terminator. The ace king is looking scary and the thing is when people serve this well on grass they usually get far in Wimbledon. Just think back to Ivanisevich who stormed the tournament as a wild card entry with that ridiculous serve.

Tsonga looked hopeless today on Karlovich's serve, I don't think Karlovic dropped a single point in the whole 4th set.

The question is can he keep this up, in the post-game interview the guy said he wasn't too impressed with his serve and that he can do better. When it come to the technical side of tennis he isn't something to get excited about but he's smart, he won't bother with trying to win the opponents serve then there will be that one game he goes all out and tried to sneak a break.

I had him +4 today as any games given to him is too many on grass when he's playing like this.

I have a futures with Verdasco aswell and am worried about it now, he's so soft sometimes and goes to sleep for while before waking up, he's got the potential to be great but he can be such a pusssy and crumble its frustrating to watch.

Karlovic is now 90/1 to win Wimbledon, it was something like 500/1 at the start of the tourny.

**j0hnnyv** · 06-26-09, 11:15 PM

karlovic is something else. all serve, its real funny to watch his serve is amazing. interested to see where this takes him...federer made comments today about karlo which were great.

**Stacocakes** · 06-26-09, 11:33 PM

Some interesting matches for saturday.

Davydenko is like 9-0 career vs Berdych but for some reason Berdych is favored on saturday.Guess you could say Berdych is "due" or you can factor in that none of the victores by Davydenko came on grass. Hopefully Berdych does get by Davy because I have him as a future haha

Hewitt is going to win but the price is to big blah. -800 plus NO THANKS

Stepanek/Ferrer is a good scrappy match. Could be a potential five setter.Could also go either way. Will pass

Roddick will beat Melzer but -800 is not worth it

Murray will beat Troicki but the odds are horrible

Wawrinka will be Levine but the odds are to big.I don't trust him as a -500 favorite

Gonzalez should beat Ferrero.I already have the gonzalez futures so I will not put any additional money on him here.

SImon/Hanescu - Interesting matchup here. Leaning towards Simon

Radwanska/Li - Here will be my first play of the day.Going to bet on Radwanska here. She is the better play

Ivanovic/Stosur - Stosur is a man so she has a good chance of the upset here. Will be staying away

Wozniacki over Medina Garrigues. Odds to high

Safina over Flipkens odds to high

Kuznetsova over Lisicki will pass

Mauresmo -178 over Pennetta. I like Mauresmo here.SHe has been playing well as of late. She also has more experience then Pennetta when it comes with advancing farther into a major. I'll take the experience.

Plays for Saturday officially:

Mauresmo -178

Radwanska -110

Simon -125

best of luck tomorrow guys

**Stacocakes** · 06-27-09, 08:39 AM

Feel bad for the 1.02 backers of Ferrer. Stepanek has had at least two injury timeouts already and obviously some people figured he was a sure thing to retire but now he has come back and has a two sets to love lead. 1.02 backing is -5000 by the way
Berdych looking great up 2 sets to love and a break in the third
Oudin is up a break over Jankovic in the third set right now. Jankovic is playing like shit and having trainers out left and right. Whether its here or in another match this tournament, Jankovic won't win so my outright is lost at some point. Horrible tennis.This match is absolutely brutal to watch. This oudin girl could still choke though.Seems she can't play when she has a lead

**Stacocakes** · 06-27-09, 09:04 AM

Well Jankovic just lost to a nobody which was great. At least my biggest outright is still alive in Berdych.

**Stacocakes** · 06-27-09, 02:45 PM

Well it was a great day overall. All three straight bets won with Simon, Mauresmo and Radwanska winning. Very nice. Only bad thing was that two outrights lost today and those were Gonzalez and Jankovic.Main thing to get right at these point are the straight bets but it would have been nice to have as many outrights as possible heading into the quarterfinals to allow for some good hedge oppurotunities but now it seems that there are only 4 outrights left with Berdych,Djokovic,Roddick and Verdasco. Verdasco does scare me tomorrow facing Karlovic.Will be hard for him to return Ivo's serve as it is for anyone.Djokovic has Sela tomorrow so I am not really worried about that match.
Hopefully everyone made some money today. Lets get right back at it tomorrow.

**Stacocakes** · 06-27-09, 05:15 PM

or should I say lets get back to it on monday since sunday is a rest day

**Stacocakes** · 06-29-09, 01:29 AM

Lots of good matches today guys. Should be a good day.Looks like it will be nice weather up until friday where there is a possibility of rain

Hewitt/Stepanek - Lots of talk about Stepaneks injuries. He was supposedly injured and doubtful to even be at wimbledon but he has played and he has won. He had a bunch of injury timeouts last match so that has people walking on eggshells as far as backing him in a match against hewitt. I like Hewitt to win this match but I don't really like backing him as a big favorite, -364, since I don't really trust his serve.I'll pass on this match but Hewitt will win it I believe.

Berdych/Roddick - Well I have both of these players as futures to win wimbledon. The odds I have on berdych to win are alot bigger so I am kinda hoping Berdych wins this match.Since I have both guys already bet I will just skip this match.

Murray/wawrinka - Wawrinka has shown that he is a fairly decent player but when it comes to the big stage he tends to lose. Murray will win this match and sadly I think it might be fairly easily. -1325 for murray though is ridiculous.No bet

Ferrero/Simon - Very tough match. Simon has some injury concerns.Has a taping on his knee. Hasn't really affected him since he has been winning but it is something that could come into play if its a long match which I see this to be. Both players have a grind it out style.This match could easily be 5 sets. I am therefore going to take the over 41.5 in this match.

Haas/Andreev - I believe Haas is the play here.I don't really trust either of these players though so -267 odds on Haas are a bit to high for me.Will pass on this match. This match could go deep as well with both players having mental lapses ALL OF THE TIME. Going to pass on the games bet though as well.

Djokovic/Sela - Djokovic to win but the odds are to high. Would be good for my future to

Fed/Soderling - No chance for Soderling.

Safina/Mauresmo - UPSET ALERT. YOu know how Safina is the deeper she gets into these majors. She has the ability to look amazing one day and then play like a rec league player the next. Huge drift in the odds for this match with money piling in on Mauresmo. The career head to head is 4-2 for Mauresmo. I am going to pass on this.Wish the odds were like the last match they played in 2008 when Mauresmo was +352. Safina also hates playing on the grass surface and according to one article when asked if she was going to change her game for the surface, she said no. Odds aren't what I want for this match so I am passing

Offical Play for monday :

Ferrero/Simon over 41.5 games
Andreev/Haas over 40.5 games (didn't like it earlier but changing my mind.Like this now)

Best of luck tomorrow gusy

**Stacocakes** · 06-29-09, 08:42 PM

Two bad picks today with the overs in the Simon and Haas matches. Was good to see Andreev throw in the towel in the second set which made the over unattainable. Roddick and Djokovic advanced so those are my last two futures left with Verdasco and Berdych going down today.Gave back the units I won a couple days earlier.Guess thats how it works sometimes
Crazy match with the Murray/Wawrinka match today. Didn't think it would be that close.
The odds are showing on Betfair at -800 for Murray in this match which seems very high

Karlovics serve scares me against Fed. I have bet Fed against Karlovic on many occassions and it is scary every time. Games usually come down to tiebreaks and with Feds tendancy to mishit his groundstrokes it makes the tiebreaks a scary scenario. I still think fed wins this match but its not worth betting -800 on him.

Djokovic/haas - Djokovic is looking for revenge of the loss at Halle prior to wimbledon. Djokovics has upped his level as wimbledon has gone on and I see him winning this match. Haas has a tendancy to choke in big situations and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened against Wednesday. I already have futures on Djokovic so I am not going to put any additional money on Djokovic for this match.

Hewitt/ROddick - Roddick had an easy time today dispatching of Berdych in impressive form. Hewitt had his typical warrior type performance coming back from 2 sets to 0 down to beat Stepanek. Hewitt did have an injury timeout in the second set of that match so that does concern me a bit about his health for this match, especially when you factor in that he had a long match today as well.Roddick is 5-6 career head to head against Hewitt but has won the last four matches the two have played against eachother. I also trust Roddick's serve more then I trust Hewitt's which is just another reason to back Roddick in this situation. Like DJokovic I already have some futures on Roddick so I will probably refrain from putting any more units on him tomorrow.Roddick should win this match though.

Azarenka/Serena will be very interesting. Serena has the edge 2-1 in matches between the 2 but we all remember the Australian open when azarenka was beating Serena but then had to retire due to dehydration so the 2-1 edge to Serena is slightly skewed. The thing that scares me about this match, besides the fact that the Williams sisters are so mentally stronger then any of the other WTA tour players, is the fact that Azarenka has the ability to get rattled and it severly affects her play.She almost lost the match to Petrova today because she was getting some bad line calls and letting that get to her. I think Serena wins in the end but I don't think it will be very easy for her.

Schiavonne/Dementieva- Head to head in this series is surprisingly 4-4. I dont' trust either of these players with my money so I am going to pass on this match all together

Venus/ Radwanska - 3-1 venus head to head. Venus is going to crush Radwanskas weak second serve. This match will probably be lopsided.

Lisicki/Safina - Head to head is 1-0 Lisicki who played great today and this tournament so far. Very hard to bet against Safina but she is just so unpredictable. Never makes the match easy.I'm going to stay away from it.

Play of the day :

Serena/Venus final Yes +140. I am kicking myself that I didn't take this at +200 last night. I was looking at it but honestly forgot about it. I still took a nice chunk at +140 because I believe it is going to be an all williams final. The only match that I am really scared about is the Azarenka/Serena match. I think Venus will probably play Safina in the semis and should be able to beat her because Safina has a tendancy to choke when it comes to the big big matches.

Will be back later after I have thought about the womens matches some more.Just the Williams final prop for now. Best of luck tomorrow guys

**Stacocakes** · 06-30-09, 12:22 PM

Well both Williams sisters advanced to the semi-finals so that Williams final bet has now gone from +140 to -170 which means I got it at a good time. I don't see Safina or Dementieva sneaking into the final at all. Bet is looking good.Can't wait for the mens quaterfinals tomorrow

**SBR Lou** · 06-30-09, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Well both Williams sisters advanced to the semi-finals so that Williams final bet has now gone from +140 to -170 which means I got it at a good time. I don't see Safina or Dementieva sneaking into the final at all. Bet is looking good.Can't wait for the mens quaterfinals tomorrow

Venus won't drop a set, Serena could. That's a rematch of the US Open finals.

Must've been a real choke job by Liscki, Safina struggled with her first serve badly and had 9 doublefaults when I was watching, including a DF to end the 1st set TB.

**j0hnnyv** · 06-30-09, 09:39 PM

i definitely agree it will be venus/serena. the thing I hate about that is I swear they decide who will win before hand and its fixed. I can not believe that they just go out and play straightup against each other. I think earlier in their career their father had this hand in picking who would win. isn't is a little strange they are like .500 against each other lifetime I believe??? I like Serena more but Venus looks unstoppable right now. that will be a hell of a battle if its played for real.

I cant wait till safina goes home, girl is the most bogus #1 ever.

**Stacocakes** · 06-30-09, 11:24 PM

Ya its usually pretty uneventful when the two williams play. I wouldnt be surprised if it is rigged

Plays for Wednesday:

Well guys, looks as though the 4 favorites will win. Nothing really surprising there so I am going to refrain from betting any of them since I have DJokovic and Roddick in outright bets anyways. I have a feeling that Federer is going to have trouble with Karlovic.Will be very close. Possibly 3 tiebreak sets.Wouldn't be surprised

Will andy murray win 3-0 NO +100

Heres my first play. Murray will still have the affects of the wawrinka match which JCF is on a mission here. I think Murray wins this 3 sets to 1.

Karlovic +4.5 -141 over Fed

Like I said above I can see tiebreaks in every set this match. 12 of 22 sets they have played have gone to tiebreak. Karlovic hasn't been broken on grass in ages. Hasn't been broken all tournament. Like this bet

Best of luck to you guys tomorrow

**j0hnnyv** · 06-30-09, 11:49 PM

good luck cakes. I have roddick already locked in. not laying the juice with murray or federer. prob not gonna waste a unit on karlo. i am on the fence on nole. i backed him when haas whooped him in halle a few weeks ago on the grass in 3 sets... i would love to back haas this time at +240. i think djoker could be in trouble. we'll see. good luck bro

**Stacocakes** · 07-02-09, 01:50 AM

Horrible outcomes today with Djokovic and Murray winning 3-0.Lost both of those bets and the djokovic future. All I have left for the outrights is now Andy Roddick. Bring it home Andy. No chance but its good to hope.
Still have the williams sister final at +140. Wish I got it when it was +200. Its now -200 after being -225 earlier in the day. I think this bet is looking really good and will hopefully get back some of the units that were lost today. I'm going to make no additional bets on the williams will just let this bet ride.
Best of luck tomorrow guys

**Stacocakes** · 07-02-09, 05:15 PM

A heart attack match with the Serena/Dementieva match.Elena had her chances but once again when it mattered she couldn't do it. I'll take it.Needed the +140 williams final to hit to get some money back
Hopefully everyone had a good day.Will be back a bit later analyzing the mens semi-finals

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-02-09, 07:30 PM

Only way I can see playing the Murray-Roddick match is set betting for Murray. Have a Roddick future like you do. Thinking sprinkle some on Murray 3-1 and 3-2. I think Roddick will grab a set.

**Stacocakes** · 07-03-09, 01:24 AM

Its a tough call on how to hedge Roddick at this point. If you were to hedge it with Murray to win the match for a bit and Roddick won the match, it would be difficult to hedge my roddick outright in the final and guarantee money in the end. If Federer makes it to the final he is going to be -800 or so against Roddick at least and maybe more. Would have to bet on federer enough to cover the original roddick outright bet plus the money that was lost trying to hedge out murray in the semifinals.Wouldn't work to go.Guess I am just going to ride out Roddick and if he loses he losses to Murray. Its not like I have a pile of money on the outrights anyways.If Roddick does win the semi and faces Federer in the final, I would probably hedge then to guarantee a profit. THough with those crap odds on Federer who knows if that would be even worth it. Lots to think of in the next couple days.He has to get by Murray first before anything.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-03-09, 01:18 PM

I took Murray 3-1 today. My thoughts is if Roddick made it to the final, I'd hedge a couple units on the exact result, Federer 3-0, 3-1, etc. That's the only way to hedge I think if Roddick can make it today. Nice of him to win the 1st set, but Murray looks like he is beginning to take over.

**Stacocakes** · 07-03-09, 04:38 PM

Very impressive win by Roddick today over Murray. I was a bit worried when he choked the third set and then tried to choke the third set tiebreak as well but was relieved when he managed to win the match. Now I have the +3400 Roddick outright to think about before sunday. Could hedge it a bit before the match and guarantee some money either way, could let it ride.....could try to hedge it ingame hoping roddick gets out to a good start.Many things to contemplate. After watching Fed today totally destroy Haas it was pretty easy to see that Rogers name is already on the trophy.
Hope you guys managed to get some money today. The williams final tomorrow should be a snoozer but will watch it anyways.

**Stacocakes** · 07-04-09, 09:46 AM

What a brutal womens final. Why the **** did I get up to watch this? Crowd wasn't even into the match at all.I've bet on the williams sisters many times and I always have to sweat out there service games against even the shittiest women tennis players but today they are both untouchable on first serves in the first set then the second set was a total tank job. Must be both saving energy for the doubles final since this singles final was pre-scripted

**Stacocakes** · 07-05-09, 11:05 AM

Wow what a great match this final is.This fifth set is going to be great. I was lucky enough to hedge my bet to guarantee some nice money during the second set tiebreak which I THOUGHT Roddick would win but he blew.Thought Fed would cruise from that point but I am impressed with Roddicks fight here. Going to be a good fifth set.Still pulling for Roddick since I win alot more if he wins