Federer at -275 in semis, I expect this to close over -300...

**yisman** · 06-03-09, 02:13 PM

I think Federer will beat Del Potro as well.

I would suggest parlaying the Stosur plays, if possible.

**RogueScholar** · 06-03-09, 02:17 PM

Hey Lou, why do you even mention unit sizes when you refuse to keep an accurate season record on the forum anymore? Are those to aid Yisman in his tracking of your plays?

**single shaker** · 06-03-09, 02:41 PM

proves again that sometimes you not only have to be good, you have to be lucky as well. federer is getting his road to the French Open crown cleared for him. what would have be the chance that murray, nadal, and djokovic would be out before the semis? delpotro matches up badly against federer, and it does not matter young or old, the style of play delpotro plays can not hurt Federer, the line at -275 is not quite a gift as a line of -410 on delpotro against robredo, but a great line never the less. i will probably lay around 5 units on federer, hopefully matchbook will keep it around -300. but i 100% agree with crazyl again, the line will be close to -400 on all the shitty books out there.

and remember people dont bet opposite crazyl just to prove the point, you will end up homeless in no time. i agree that he might be absolutely clueless when it comes to smaller tournaments, but betting against 13 time grandslam winner, and putting your money on one of the biggest underachivers in monfils just not a smart strategy.

**SBR Lou** · 06-03-09, 03:47 PM

Quickly moved to -286 at Pinny. On the way up.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-09, 04:39 PM

I think the Federer line will get hammered hard early based on today's match, but I won't be surprised to see it move back some with people seeing Del Potro and a #5 next to him in the rankings thinking he has a shot to win. Outside of the Gonzalez-Soderling match, I'll probably be playing set bets the rest of the way through with the inflated favorites prices that are going to be on the board.

**SBR Lou** · 06-03-09, 04:47 PM

I agree. -275 was great.

At -304 now.

Where's taco?

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-03-09, 05:00 PM

This is going to be -400 :-)

Stilllll ...... there's something, just something I don't like here though. Potro's serve worries me, because of the terrific bounce height he gets on it - and Federer hasn't been returning well this week at all (look at the trouble he had with the Haas serve). In the rallying matchup issues, it's easy to see Potro's defence getting exposed, Fed bothering him with that low short slice etc. However if he's ambitious on attack, he can also trouble Federer, particularly with the enormous cross court forehand into the corner - not sure Fed can defend well against that on fast clay.

Of course he probably won't be ambitious, but I think that potential is there. If he falls back in his base instincts of mindlessly slugging the ball to the central 2/3 alley of the court, he'll get crushed.

Their last meeting in Madrid was interesting-ish, but Fed won with a single break in each set, and Potro was unable to get into the match, missing all 4bps. However, his serve was poor that day. What happens if it's firing? It's a monstrous weapon, and when directed at a single-handed backhand it's nearly unreturnable with the bounce on Chatrier.

I think if I was to bet on Fed, I'd go for the -1.5 set handicap, maybe get -140/-150 or so. If Potro makes it closer, and starts to believe, the value on Fed maybe disappears (just as Potro stayed competitive and then beat Nadal in Miami). He's been pretty horrendous this last week when opponents serve well and attack him, and it's not inconceivable there could be similar trouble in store here.

I guess, to be blunt, I've become a Fed sceptic. Haas, Acasuso, PHM all really bothered him. Monfils held serve for the first set, but after winning the tiebreak Fed got his confidence and was comfortable. As a frontrunner he's fine .......... but what if he goes behind?

**tacomax** · 06-03-09, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

I agree. -275 was great.

At -304 now.

Where's taco?

My prediction of this line using the patented CrazyL SISO system is -1850.

**SBR Lou** · 06-04-09, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

PLAYS FOR SEMI FINALS
Federer -275 *2 units*
Gonzalez -125 *1 unit*
Stosur +4.5 +113 *1 unit*
Stosur OVER 20.5 +103 *1 unit*
Cibulkova +465 *1 unit*

2-1 on WTA, Stosur +4.5 +113 & Over 20.5 +103 hit, and Cibulkova lost.

Yisman?

**Brock Landers** · 06-04-09, 11:46 AM

will be Gonzalez vs federer in the final

Federer will walk away with the title, its done after he dispatched Monfils with ease.

**mathdotcom** · 06-04-09, 11:47 AM

Congrats crazy. Just need to win 7-8 more bets and you'll have made up for the -900 beating.

**yisman** · 06-04-09, 11:48 AM

I'm tracking

**Shark79** · 06-04-09, 11:48 AM

I see Del Potro vs Gonzo final match.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-04-09, 01:21 PM

Looking like temps will be a fair bit lower. That favours Fed imo, cos it'll lessen the bounce off Potro's serve, and more generally Fed is much stronger on slow clay than Potro (witness the numerous Hamburg wins).

I went on Fed-1.5 sets, got -125 on that, way higher than I figured.

**SBR Lou** · 06-04-09, 09:38 PM

Over -320 at pinny

-335 at CRIS

**pimike** · 06-04-09, 09:39 PM

350 at cw

**MartinBlank** · 06-04-09, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Looking like temps will be a fair bit lower. That favours Fed imo, cos it'll lessen the bounce off Potro's serve, and more generally Fed is much stronger on slow clay than Potro (witness the numerous Hamburg wins).

I went on Fed-1.5 sets, got -125 on that, way higher than I figured.

The hotter/faster the court, the better it is for Federer. A slow court will give DP any chance he has at winning.

**pimike** · 06-04-09, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

The hotter/faster the court, the better it is for Federer. A slow court will give DP any chance he has at winning.

True.

**hoopster42** · 06-04-09, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by Shark79

I see Del Potro vs Gonzo final match.

i see soderling vs fed, actually

soderling is on fire and ko'ed the 4 time champ then beat down a hot davydenko

fed owns del potro

much much much better chance of fed v soderling than anything else i think

i know gonzo is favored over soderling but i think the wrong guy is favored

**SBR Lou** · 06-04-09, 10:39 PM

hoopster,
What are the current odds on Fed and compare to original post sir.

**SportsTerminator** · 06-04-09, 11:44 PM

I'm liking Federer to win based on my research.
Ferderer is 5-0 against Del Potro.
This is Federer's time to win the French Open... to make history... he's determined...

**SBR Lou** · 06-04-09, 11:49 PM

-360 at CRIS

**j0hnnyv** · 06-05-09, 12:22 AM

I got -281 last nite on matchy.....-325 now and was -345 a little bit ago....and i wasnt even trying to be smart I thought he played this morning so I locked it in....soooo glad I did!

Now all he has to do is WIN

**Wheell** · 06-05-09, 01:05 AM

Federer will win. Only Soderling can beat Federer here, and that is only if he really has made the jump to an elite player on clay. Fed is the heavy chalk here for a good reason.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-05-09, 05:46 AM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

The hotter/faster the court, the better it is for Federer. A slow court will give DP any chance he has at winning.

Have to disagree. Del Potro is seriously uncomfortable on slow clay (check his loss to Ljubicic in Monte Carlo), as it doesn't give him any penetration off his flat groundshots, and particularly doesn't allow him to take advantage of his huge serve. Same story last year.

Federer is extremely comfortable - it's not a coincidence his best masters is Hamburg, where he won 4 times.

**SBR Lou** · 06-05-09, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

I really, REALLY think this line closes over -300 at Pinnacle.

The line is -384 right now.

**VegasDave** · 06-05-09, 09:36 AM

Say what you will about Lou, but beating a line by over -100 is pretty damn good.

Good luck to all you Federer backers!

**hoopster42** · 06-05-09, 09:46 AM

nice call on the line, CrazyL, but i think you missed the line movement guess on fed-monfils, did you not?

**SBR Lou** · 06-05-09, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by hoopster42

nice call on the line, CrazyL, but i think you missed the line movement guess on fed-monfils, did you not?

I had -318 and Pinny closed -320. So technically, although it didn't move as much there as I had predicted, I didn't "lose". The line hit lower than -318 at one point but still went back up, and I had beaten the market average anyway at closing.

**hoopster42** · 06-05-09, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

I had -318 and Pinny closed -320. So technically, although it didn't move as much there as I had predicted, I didn't "lose". The line hit lower than -318 at one point but still went back up, and I had beaten the market average anyway at closing.

you are predicting and shopping well, then. nice work.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-05-09, 10:12 AM

Did it reach my -400 by close? :-)

**VegasDave** · 06-05-09, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Did it reach my -400 by close? :-)

An even nicer call

**SBR Lou** · 06-05-09, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Did it reach my -400 by close? :-)

Closed at -380 at Pinny, a little different predicting movement once the line already moved 25 cents though, but good eye.

**daggerkobe** · 06-05-09, 10:45 AM

ExFed now -166 Live.

Looks like u didnt get the best line afterall.