Moar Threads? Moar Picks

**Hardcoar** · 03-13-15, 12:56 PM

Carreno-Busta @ 3.35

**Hardcoar** · 03-13-15, 12:57 PM

Vesnina @ 6.2

**Hardcoar** · 03-13-15, 12:57 PM

Estrella @ 2.2

**SCI** · 03-13-15, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Vesnina @ 6.2

Facking quitter.

**Hardcoar** · 03-13-15, 08:51 PM

Niculescu @ 13

**w@lt** · 03-13-15, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Niculescu @ 13

YES

**Hardcoar** · 03-13-15, 09:34 PM

She is playing like f*cking whoreshit. Somewhat unsurprising perhaps considering her Romanian origins...

**Hardcoar** · 03-14-15, 11:59 AM

Duckworth @ 3.65

**Hardcoar** · 03-14-15, 12:00 PM

Lisicki @ 2.04

**Hardcoar** · 03-14-15, 12:00 PM

Jovanovski @ 3.45

**Hardcoar** · 03-14-15, 12:01 PM

Delbonis @ 6

**Hardcoar** · 03-14-15, 12:01 PM

Zhu @ 5.5

**Hardcoar** · 03-14-15, 03:22 PM

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 12:22 PM

Watson @ 8

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 03-15-15, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Watson @ 8

Now 1-11 vs the top 10! Nice cash, sir.

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 02:49 PM

Oh look, I had some luck!

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 02:53 PM

Pliskova @ 2.46

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 04:32 PM

Hahahaase @ 13

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 04:38 PM

Diyas @ 14

**fitguy67** · 03-15-15, 04:44 PM

Watson @8
Pliskova @ 2.46

it's these occasional fat-payout hits that makes the suffering through all of those skinny-stake mis-hits worthwhile

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 05:16 PM

Yeah I'm mostly worried about the tailability of this thread. I might start a thread with leans (ie things im going to bet if im able to).

**kenz** · 03-15-15, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Hahahaase @ 13

)

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 03-15-15, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Hahahaase @ 13

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 06:30 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVXD8J8ILL8

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 06:50 PM

Karlovic @ 1.84

**aortega521** · 03-15-15, 07:09 PM

All over Karlovic

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 07:35 PM

Poor start. These courts should suit him well though. The bounce is ridiculous.

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 08:29 PM

Golubev @ 4.5

**waste1** · 03-15-15, 08:57 PM

whats your strategy by making these picks? you basically take very underdog and hope for the best?

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 09:17 PM

I take every underdog?

I had no idea I did.

My strategy is to bet on whatever odds I'm convinced should be lower.

**sluggy1616** · 03-15-15, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

I take every underdog?

I had no idea I did.

My strategy is to bet on whatever odds I'm convinced should be lower.

Hey Hard,

Not sure I'm asking this correctly, but do you have a dedicated range of probability that a bet must have in your mind before you make a bet?

For example, the @13 is the books giving the player like a 10% probability of winning the match. Will you bet the match if you think the player has a 15% chance of winning the match, or do you have a minimum % level or range where in your mind the player has at least say for example at least a 35% chance of winning the match according to your capping before you will bet?

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 09:39 PM

No, I'm not that mathematical in my approach, although I do appreciate statistics to a good extent.

The bets are based on my estimations, typically, and while I do not go by figures, I am aware of the large margin of error that applies to these estimates.

**sluggy1616** · 03-15-15, 09:40 PM

Thanks!!

**Hardcoar** · 03-15-15, 09:43 PM

To name a couple of today's winning examples, I thought Haase had at least a 15% shot at winning, and Watson at least a 20% shot at winning.

**sluggy1616** · 03-15-15, 09:59 PM

I'm trying to figure out for myself how I want to start betting matches. The mens game to me when I think about it is pretty efficiently priced. Most of the value in my mind has been those match ups where a typically good players say Isner or Kornscriber has had a rough start to the year and are facing much lower ranked opponents that have had a recent good run of fortune. Those were the matches to bet IMO. I see more value in the womens game because they dont consistently hold serve well which results in greater volatility of results.
I'm thinking of trying to employ what you do but use a minimum probability of winning(no less than 35%) to lower the standard deviation of my results.

So if you were me where would you try to focus? My example with the men IMO doesn't happen all that often and I'd have to place big bets to make any kind of cash. Or is there other crap I'm missing in the mens game? Or should I try the ladies cause thats were the big upsets are more likely to happen?

Teach me Hardcoarson.