My last WTA play

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by BennyBigNuts

The injury came in the last game of the 2nd set when it was over already.
Nothing lucky about the better player winning the match.

unreal all favorite except linette, looks like she owned h2h for some reason

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 10:41 AM

Anybody have a good pick for 12 monterrey wta??

**HatersGonnaHate** · 03-02-15, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

Anybody have a good pick for 12 monterrey wta??

I thought you were the capping master. Let's hear your picks

**Vinnie Paz** · 03-02-15, 10:59 AM

I'm on tsurenko, no idea about the qualifiers though

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by HatersGonnaHate

I thought you were the capping master. Let's hear your picks

i knew nara was a sure thing lock but wta is normally a crap shoot might as well collaborate, you have any solid pick for qualifying?

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

I'm on tsurenko, no idea about the qualifiers though

rogers seems like value but take larsson if you want a more sure win, looks very free vs shlt bertens

**HatersGonnaHate** · 03-02-15, 11:20 AM

Only thing that looks remotely worth taking a risk on in that qualifying would be rads/hog over or the over 2.5 sets prop for that match

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by HatersGonnaHate

Only thing that looks remotely worth taking a risk on in that qualifying would be rads/hog over or the over 2.5 sets prop for that match

ok will try that, a side seems like torture for the 12's

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 11:27 AM

rad just went from -105 to -130 not sure it means anything? taking Bondarenko seems worth a shot

**Hardcoar** · 03-02-15, 12:40 PM

It means more people bet on her than bet on her opponent, you f*cking genius.

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

It means more people bet on her than bet on her opponent, you f*cking genius.

What is your best bet smart ass?

**Hardcoar** · 03-02-15, 02:16 PM

One I like is Mladenovic over Smitkova. This isn't fast indoors, after all...

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 02:18 PM

is Babos a sure win?

**fitguy67** · 03-02-15, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

It means more ~~people~~ money bet on her than bet on her opponent, you f*cking genius.

fixed it...as you know: markets are NOT "one person one vote", they're "one dollar/euro/pound/yen one vote"...the big "elephant in the room" that makes publicly-available consensus indicators a steaming pile of dung...books may tell you accurate % based on the "number of bets" on either side of a play...but they will damn-near never tell you anything usable regarding the money-amounts on either side of a bet...WHEN books want to to lock in profit/remove risk on a bet, they try to balance the money (not the number of tickets) on either side of it

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glad to have you back around here, hardcoar...got your bookie situation sorted yet?..would love to see yet another edition of your hi-variance/hi-return plays...

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

fixed it...as you know: markets are NOT "one person one vote", they're "one dollar/euro/pound/yen one vote"...the big "elephant in the room" that makes publicly-available consensus indicators a steaming pile of dung...books may tell you accurate % based on the "number of bets" on either side of a play...but they will damn-near never tell you anything usable regarding the money-amounts on either side of a bet...(when they want to to lock in profit/remove risk on a bet, they try to balance the money (not the number of tickets) on either side of it

_____________________

glad to have you back around here, hardcoar...got your bookie situation sorted yet?..would love to see yet another edition of your hi-variance/hi-return plays...

whats with this huge delay? must be raining like no tomorrow wow

**fitguy67** · 03-02-15, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

I'm on tsurenko, no idea about the qualifiers though

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

rogers seems like value but take larsson if you want a more sure win, looks very free vs shlt bertens

will put a unit onto tsurenko...and if/when it hits...will consider rolling it into larsson...thanks guys...

let's keep this thread going...fitting if a thread entitled "My LAST gash-rackets play"...ends up giving birth to lots more...

the trick of betting these lower brands of tennis, where "form" (especially service-holding) is much less reliable...is to consider each match the flip of a weighted coin...which very often (certainly more often than with ATP) has a true weight closer to/further from (even if by "just a bit") an unweighted-50% than the price implies...

________________
for example (showing value on a fave, for a change) say the Tsurenko-ML is booked at 1.5/-200, implying a 66.67% chance of a bet on her cashing...if you deem her true chance of winning is just a tad better than that, say 70% AND you were correct...then you'd have an nice fat 5% "edge" by buying at 1.5 over the true break-even price of 1.4286

a mismatch between the "booked" and the "perceived as true" probability of a bet's cashing is more likely to occur/easy to "find" with the less well known players (and/or, in the case of the women's game--the players lacking weapons-grade serves and ground-strokes, not to mention being prone to menstrual woes a double-digit % of the time) than with the marquis ATP'ers
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bet-sizing is key...can't be too aggressive (let the dog odds do that when the value is on that side, as it usually is when "bigger name" plays "lesser name")...cuz losing streaks can be painful...gotta resist the temptation to get "revenge" for and chase previous losses that "shouldn'ta happened"...

personally i like to play da-broads and da-scrubs TO WIN a single unit...and just persist thru the bad runs till the good runs come

**slayer14** · 03-02-15, 05:49 PM

you guys had a look at the wta mexican open matches tonight any interest you

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 11:38 PM

anything at 1 am in malaysia Benny? looking at buyukakcay

**Olemiss_Rebfan** · 03-02-15, 11:45 PM

buyukakcay she is definitely playing some decent tennis... Gajdosova is a breakable serve for sure serving 40 double faults to 37 aces saving only 50 percent on break points. If anything i believe buyukakcay can win a set maybe take the plus 1 and half sets

**Olemiss_Rebfan** · 03-02-15, 11:46 PM

but that plus 220 looks nice and juicy

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by Olemiss_Rebfan

but that plus 220 looks nice and juicy

yea i also heard Georges -1.5 sets? not sold but kudrat is shlt i think

**Cappinpicks** · 03-02-15, 11:50 PM

buyukak +1.5 set

**Olemiss_Rebfan** · 03-03-15, 01:43 AM

okay, well whats up for the next set of bets, hit on first set of Goerges

**Cappinpicks** · 03-03-15, 02:22 AM

injuried ugly muslim bitch sucks

**Cappinpicks** · 03-03-15, 02:29 AM

fat arm c.unt was simple i guess

**BennyBigNuts** · 03-03-15, 04:07 AM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

anything at 1 am in malaysia Benny? looking at buyukakcay

Sorry wasn't around on here.
Bukkake sucks

Single #399472858
Tennis - All tournaments for women (Game) Point Spread
WTA - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Jarmila Gajdosova -1½ (+110) Mar 02/15@10:00p

Final Scores
Cagla Buyukakcay 0
Jarmila Gajdosova 2

Outcome: Win
Date settled: Mar 02, 2015 11:56:58 PM

**BennyBigNuts** · 03-03-15, 04:09 AM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

anything at 1 am in malaysia Benny? looking at buyukakcay

Weather is gone to shit right now, but I need Dellaqua to close out a parlay and shes losing so a suspension may not be too bad for me lol.

I'm on this later:
Carina Witthoeft -120

-1.5 sets +175

**gaebiskon** · 03-03-15, 04:14 AM

Benny, you WTA expert?
You're on a roll

**Enjoi** · 03-03-15, 05:25 AM

Dellacqua really deserves to lose this game. Real shitty game she's playing

**Vinnie Paz** · 03-03-15, 05:42 AM

This is what I get for the one time thinking I can trust dellacqua

**BennyBigNuts** · 03-03-15, 05:56 AM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

This is what I get for the one time thinking I can trust dellacqua

Needed that pig to close a parlay out.

She really is a mediocre player.
Her rally game is so weak she does nothing with 80% of her swings, just straight to the opponent with no purpose.
Doesn't hustle, takes half the points off.
The fact she's a lefty may be her only slight edge.

**BennyBigNuts** · 03-03-15, 06:02 AM

Just live bet Wozniaki to win first set down 2-0. Laid -182 but seemed like stealing.

**Vinnie Paz** · 03-03-15, 06:33 AM

What you got in Monterrey?

**slayer14** · 03-03-15, 06:39 AM

what about Sabine lisickis match guys any thoughts

**Vinnie Paz** · 03-03-15, 06:44 AM

Fade her or pass