My Original tennis picks

**Hardcoar** · 07-05-14, 02:57 PM

I figured it's implied that he considers the odds-drift an overreaction and as such a good bet.

**ayororick** · 07-05-14, 03:00 PM

Appears to me he's only making the play because he can't bet on the favorite. Just because you can't bet one way doesn't mean you have to bet the other. Betting 101 really.

**Hardcoar** · 07-05-14, 03:09 PM

I agree with that, but it's about reading in between the lines as well.

**matt1216** · 07-05-14, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by ayororick

So you're betting on him purely because you don't want to lay chalk? You really have a problem. You're just betting on everything to dig yourself out of a hole. Although I highly doubt you're actually betting real money at this point.

Dude. , what r u talking about? Use your brain for a minute... When everybody and there dog are on one side and the odds are bRely moving at certain books, obviously I'm not gonna be on the favorite.

**matt1216** · 07-05-14, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by ayororick

Appears to me he's only making the play because he can't bet on the favorite. Just because you can't bet one way doesn't mean you have to bet the other. Betting 101 really.

Your trying to give me tips on how to wager ? Lmfao

Create a thread and I will be more than happy to troll your plays

**Simon Gruber** · 07-05-14, 05:19 PM

Let's hammer Dustov tonight, what do ya say? 50 units? 100?

**matt1216** · 07-05-14, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by Simon Gruber

Let's hammer Dustov tonight, what do ya say? 50 units? 100?

Yeah, I'm actually liking him tonight. I'll post a play here shortly

**Hardcoar** · 07-05-14, 05:53 PM

RICH IRON VEIN DETECTED!!

**matt1216** · 07-05-14, 05:55 PM

Dustov ML 2.05 x 5 units

I like Dustov here, if he keeps his first serve percentage up, he should be ok. He beat Kokkinakis, Russle, Krajicek, and McDonald.... He had some issues with Kraijeck but the American had some amazing returns that day. Other than that Fahruk has been steady.

Kudla beat quigley in 3 sets:/, Smychek in 2 sets, and JP smith in 3 sets..... From what I saw Smychek did not play well, he consistantly made forehand errors into the net... Kudla was ok. The next Day Kudla play JP Smith.... He shoulda lost that match but JP Smith choked near the end of the second set.... The 3rd set between the two had long rallies, and I could tell Smith was gassed. Kudla has not really impressed me this tourney. To add Kudla has played doubles every day up to this point as well, I would figure he may be tired. Also Dustov has not won a title in 3 years or so now... I'm pretty sure he will give it his all today. I would expect the public to be on Kudla here as well. Let's see what happens

GL

**Hardcoar** · 07-05-14, 06:02 PM

1. Simon is being sarcastic because he's a bitch.
2. Dustov was playing far worse against McDonald than in previous rounds. Also, his injury concerns me as it could have been exacerbated.
3. Damn those odds are shit and I'll tell you once again: Accepting bad lines repeatedly will assure long-term loss.

Best of luck!

**Marillion** · 07-05-14, 06:07 PM

I like Kudla here but am somewhat hesitating to bet on him (or, rather, WAS hesitating, then the line went down and at these odds, it is no play for me). At something like 1.7, I'd maybe take Denis. He is a more solid baseliner and a good returner, so Dustov's serve won't be that much of a factor.

Anyway, GL, I may well be wrong in what I said above.

**matt1216** · 07-05-14, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

1. Simon is being sarcastic because he's a bitch.
2. Dustov was playing far worse against McDonald than in previous rounds. Also, his injury concerns me as it could have been exacerbated.
3. Damn those odds are shit and I'll tell you once again: Accepting bad lines repeatedly will assure long-term loss.

Best of luck!

Why are the odds Shit? They have never played and Kudla has shown to flop big time at times.

**Hardcoar** · 07-05-14, 06:21 PM

They are shit because @ 2.3 is freely available. If you bet on such terrible odds compared to market lines you have to be a much better capper (in order to gain a great enough edge) to be successful.

**Simon Gruber** · 07-05-14, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

1. Simon is being sarcastic because he's a bitch.
2. Dustov was playing far worse against McDonald than in previous rounds. Also, his injury concerns me as it could have been exacerbated.
3. Damn those odds are shit and I'll tell you once again: Accepting bad lines repeatedly will assure long-term loss.

Best of luck!

I wasn't being sarcastic at all. I've never come into this thread, any of Matt's threads, or yours and trolled in the least bit.

**Hardcoar** · 07-05-14, 06:47 PM

**Simon Gruber** · 07-05-14, 06:50 PM

I think you're confusing me with someone else HC.

**Hardcoar** · 07-05-14, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by Simon Gruber

Let's hammer Dustov tonight, what do ya say? 50 units? 100?

Originally posted by Simon Gruber

50 units on Farukh tonight?

**Simon Gruber** · 07-05-14, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Lost a bit of money this afternoon on the Phillies and the Bryan Brothers @ 1.6 down 1 set to love. I was interested in getting your opinion on this match because I liked Dustov, and was hoping to win some of my money back.

**Hardcoar** · 07-05-14, 06:59 PM

Ok, well I gave my honest opinion above. 50 units sounds like a terrible idea if you're actually speaking in terms of units (and not dollars). Dustov @ 2.3+ might be worth a try, but I prefer the over here with medium stakes. See my thread though.

**matt1216** · 07-05-14, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

They are shit because @ 2.3 is freely available. If you bet on such terrible odds compared to market lines you have to be a much better capper (in order to gain a great enough edge) to be successful.

Yeah that makes sense, but since these guys have never played I think the market under/over estimates each opponent

**Simon Gruber** · 07-05-14, 07:41 PM

6 foot 5 and can't make a first serve. Who's he coached by Cilic?

**matt1216** · 07-05-14, 08:20 PM

Fck me, Kudla plays his best match of the week, farruhk plays his worst.... I guess that's why he's still around 150 in the world

**matt1216** · 07-05-14, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

43-75 -72.85 units

47-79 -69.7 units

**matt1216** · 07-06-14, 02:32 AM

Zopp ML + Saville ML 2.10 x 5 units

Zominicj/Stosur Doubles + Delic ML 2.00 x 3 units

Melinikova ML 2.25 x 2 units

GL

**matt1216** · 07-06-14, 02:37 AM

Djokovic to win 1st set 1.65 x 3 units

1st set Under 12.5 games 1.44 x 5 units

GL

**ayororick** · 07-06-14, 09:02 AM

Federer to win the first in a tiebreak was like printing money. Easiest fade out there.

**Hardcoar** · 07-06-14, 10:37 AM

What is this new trend of bashing on Matt? Seriously... wow!

**brodie** · 07-06-14, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

What is this new trend of bashing on Matt? Seriously... wow!

he brings it on himself really

**SirtySree** · 07-06-14, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by brodie

he brings it on himself really

this.

**matt1216** · 07-06-14, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by brodie

he brings it on himself really

Hows that? Because my record is poor? I don't understand it. Federer barely hung on in that first set being pushed to break point multiple times.... Maybe not the wisest choice on my part but it should have hit.

**matt1216** · 07-06-14, 11:37 AM

Krajicek ML 2.40 x 5 units

GL

**JC1186** · 07-06-14, 11:43 AM

Matt if I were you I'd take some time off tennis betting. It's a pretty clear cut case imo. That you need it that is.

Come back with a fresh thread and a better approach. The one thing many have criticized you for is betting too frequently. And they're bloody spot on! You lack discipline. You lack mental prowess. Simples.

I think you've earned respect from us on here persevering with this thread. However I've got a feeling it isn't doing your mental state any good having to chase all these loses.

You shouldn't care about your rep on here. But I think you do. Which is why this thread is probably just bringing you down.

That's my 2 cents. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

**matt1216** · 07-06-14, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by JC1186

Matt if I were you I'd take some time off tennis betting. It's a pretty clear cut case imo. That you need it that is.

Come back with a fresh thread and a better approach. The one thing many have criticized you for is betting too frequently. And they're bloody spot on! You lack discipline. You lack mental prowess. Simples.

I think you've earned respect from us on here persevering with this thread. However I've got a feeling it isn't doing your mental state any good having to chase all these loses.

You shouldn't care about your rep on here. But I think you do. Which is why this thread is probably just bringing you down.

That's my 2 cents. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Thanks man, dealing with the critics a lot does take a toll mentally. I do feel I have had a lot of bad luck. I think I'm doing fine overall. I'm going to slow it down big time here shortly.

**matt1216** · 07-06-14, 12:13 PM

Damn, as much as I figured Djokovic would win, it was still tough to see Fed lose

**Hardcoar** · 07-06-14, 02:31 PM

CEK IT OUT NOW!!

Bemelbubs is one of the best fades there is. Belgian is the next French thing to Frenchness.