My Original tennis picks

**JC1186** · 06-29-14, 05:19 AM

De Bakker has opened as the Dog in the final starting soon.

Hmmmm

*Edit. Well he's 2.10 on Bet365. Can't bet there though.

He's opened as the fav at Pinnacle.

**Hardcoar** · 06-29-14, 05:29 AM

Matt's beck was for the semis, I assume.

Also, Whore will f*ck Madder-Fakker up.

**Marillion** · 06-29-14, 05:32 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Well yeah... nothing against Matt at all but DAMN odds were like @ 1.65 at least. Was it a live play??

I suppose no. Odds at some bookies fell as low as 1.45 or something like that pre-match.

**Hardcoar** · 06-29-14, 05:33 AM

Also, this final could actually feature some good tennis, if anyone's interested. Whore is hot this week!

**brodie** · 06-29-14, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by JC1186

Bolelli against Nishikori. Currently 3-3 in the 5th.

Whatever the result on Monday, Bolelli at 9.80 was the right play.

lol if bolelli loses i dont think you're going to convince me he was the right play

Originally posted by Hardcoar

No. You mistake "right play" for "play that happened to win, regardless the probability of it and odds offered".

Let me try to make it even simpler:

If you could have bet on Murray to beat Stepanek at Queen's Club just the other week at (pre-match) odds of @ 3, would it have been considered a bad bet simply because of the freak occurrence of a Murray loss?

believe me i know exactly what you're saying, but every bet is an individual occurrence and over-analyzing the odds to try to determine some type of 'value', to me anyway, is a waste of time. bottom line (for tennis) is that you either pick a winner or pick a loser

"No. You mistake "right play" for "play that happened to win, regardless the probability of it and odds offered"."

if a play wins it's the right play, you can look at a bet and pretend that it would win 9 times out of 10, but if it loses then who are you going to convince?

**JC1186** · 06-29-14, 11:23 AM

The Bolelli bet is already a huge winner for all those organised enough to lay off when up 2 sets to 1.

**brodie** · 06-29-14, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by JC1186

The Bolelli bet is already a huge winner for all those organised enough to lay off when up 2 sets to 1.

this is true

**matt1216** · 06-29-14, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Those odds are the shittiest of shitty odds my eyes have ever beheld!

I watched the odds... There was some money going around

**matt1216** · 06-29-14, 01:58 PM

1-0 +2.2 units

26-49 -50.7 units

**Hardcoar** · 06-29-14, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

I watched the odds... There was some money going around

So you waited until match time to make the bet you wanted all along at the worst possible odds?

**matt1216** · 06-29-14, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

So you waited until match time to make the bet you wanted all along at the worst possible odds?

No, I didn't even see the match was even scheduled until 20 mins prior... I was late and took what I could get.

**Hardcoar** · 06-29-14, 05:23 PM

Why? Did you think it was fixed?? Lines frequently move a lot towards the end.

**matt1216** · 06-29-14, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Why? Did you think it was fixed?? Lines frequently move a lot towards the end.

To be honest I thought there was a chance... But I also saw it was a huge mismatch (from what I've seen from both guys in the past).... Sousa played like shit for most of the Tourney... De bakker I've noticed the guy is either in it to win it or he just dosnt show up..... When JC1186 said he was a dog at another book, I couldn't believe it. Debakker can serve his way through most matches if he feels like it..... I'm just glad it worked out. Did I get shitty odds? Yeah I did, I felt De bakker should have been a legit 1.60-1.65 to be honest.

I noticed the huge Value train came through this morning... Gonzalez was 2.20 5 hours prior to match start time vs Ramos 2-0 head to head vs Ramos as well. I was a bit pissed that I missed out.

**matt1216** · 06-29-14, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Why? Did you think it was fixed?? Lines frequently move a lot towards the end.

I have also noticed a lot when the lines move 15-35 cents in favor of the favorite that it usually dosnt mean a lot... Debakker moved well over .50 cents at some books.

**Hardcoar** · 06-29-14, 06:23 PM

He was referring to the final taking place a couple hours later, for which Bakker-Fakker was favorite against Whore.

**SirtySree** · 06-29-14, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by brodie

believe me i know exactly what you're saying, but every bet is an individual occurrence and over-analyzing the odds to try to determine some type of 'value', to me anyway, is a waste of time. bottom line (for tennis) is that you either pick a winner or pick a loser

"No. You mistake "right play" for "play that happened to win, regardless the probability of it and odds offered"."

if a play wins it's the right play, you can look at a bet and pretend that it would win 9 times out of 10, but if it loses then who are you going to convince?

This is what separates the ppl that just go on good runs from time to run but make a loss in the long run and ppl that sustain a profit over a long period of time.

**matt1216** · 06-29-14, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

He was referring to the final taking place a couple hours later, for which Bakker-Fakker was favorite against Whore.

Ahh ok

**matt1216** · 06-29-14, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

He was referring to the final taking place a couple hours later, for which Bakker-Fakker was favorite against Whore.

I did notice a solid drop about a couple hours prior to match start time as well

**lucasdawg** · 06-29-14, 11:08 PM

hi matt been a while bol,

like the looks of istomin ml/cliic and nishi

**matt1216** · 06-29-14, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by lucasdawg

hi matt been a while bol,

like the looks of istomin ml/cliic and nishi

Hey bud, yeah it has been! Good luck tomorrow!

Im im not sure I will take Istomin ML but the Over 3.5 sets @1.56 parlayed with Murry ML is solid

**matt1216** · 06-29-14, 11:48 PM

Three plays for Tomorrow:

- Wawrinka/Istomin Over 3.5 sets + Cilic ML 1.95 x 3 units

- Barbora Strycova + 1.5 sets 1.95 x 2 units

- Mayer +2.5 sets 2.15 x 2 units

Bol!

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 12:00 AM

Mayer ML @9 may suprise some people

**JC1186** · 06-30-14, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

Three plays for Tomorrow:

- Mayer +2.5 sets 2.15 x 2 units

Like the play matt.

I've got a significant play on this x Cornet to win a set.

Odds of 3.99.

Lets bring it home.

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by JC1186

Like the play matt.

I've got a significant play on this x Cornet to win a set.

Odds of 3.99.

Lets bring it home.

I hope so as well, good luck man!

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 08:41 AM

-Makarova +1.5 sets 2.00 x 2 units

GL

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 08:45 AM

- Adding 2 units to Mayer +2.5 sets 2.15

Bol!

**Simon Gruber** · 06-30-14, 09:19 AM

Mayer is now @ 7.5 @ Bovada

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 09:53 AM

Gastao Elias ML 1.95 x 5 units

Bol!

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 10:23 AM

If anybody is interested, My official Soccer play this morning is Nigeria +1.5 @ 1.77 x 3 units

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 01:31 PM

Rojer/Tecau ML + Collarini Ml 2.15 x 2 units

Bol!

**Hardcoar** · 06-30-14, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

If anybody is interested, My official Soccer play this morning is Nigeria +1.5 @ 1.77 x 3 units

Soccer sucks your c0ck.

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 02:58 PM

-Hochwalt ML 8.00 x 1 unit

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Soccer sucks your c0ck.

Man, my last 3 soccer games I've been screwed in the last 10 mins.... Unbelievable.

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

-Hochwalt ML 8.00 x 1 unit

had a feeling there was a fix... to bad it wasn't for the right guy.. wish I had set wagering on challengers

**matt1216** · 06-30-14, 06:34 PM

29-53 -51.7 units