My Original tennis picks

[matt1216]

Matt if you stick with it and patiently pull yourself out of the 40 odd unit negative, you'll have learnt and refined some damn good qualities along the way. You'll be much better off moving forward.

Imo you know what you're talking about/watching/analysing when it comes to tennis. And that's the hard part. You just need to work on the mental aspect and patience. Waiting for the right plays and then trusting yourself.

Anyway, sticking with this thread has earned you a lot of respect.

Thanks JC1186, for whatever reason ive had a a rough read on clay and grass.... hopefully i pick it up for the rest of the grass season moving into the hardcourt season.

[matt1216]

Plays for today:

**still two pending plays:

Granollers ML 1.91 x 2 units
Duval +1.5 sets + Janowicz/Hewitt Over 3.5 sets 2.10 x 2 units

A. Stakhovsky ML 1.71 x 3 units

A. Anderson ML + Cilic/Berdych Over 3.5 sets 1.91 x 3 units

A. Smitkova ML 2.50 x 3 units

B. Wang +2.5 sets @1.91 x 2 units




GL

[ayororick]

1-5. Normal service resumed...

[matt1216]

24-41 -40.4 units

***2 pending plays

Granollers ML 1.91 x 2 units

Duval +1.5 sets + Janowicz/Hewitt over 3.5 sets 2.10 x 2 units

25-46 -47.4

*Just terrible luck lately. I dont know how Berdych dosnt win a set, he shouldnt even be top 10. Granollers flops after a 2-1 set lead. 80% of Everybody and there Dog was on Stak(including me)..... Once again a Frenchman bends me over.

[matt1216]

need a heater.... real soon

[matt1216]

Two plays to start today:

- Petkovic +1.5 sets + Kyrgios/Vesley Over 3.5 sets 2.50 x 2 units

- Zvonereva ML 2.45 x 2 units

Petkovic is 3-0 vs Bouchard.... Perhaps Bouchard wins this match but:

A. There's no value in Bouchard ML here

B. If Bouchard wins, I believe she will win in 3 sets. Petkovic will have great confidence knowing she has beaten Bouchard in all her meetings. Bouchard ATM IMO is slightly better but she has lapses in her game

Kyrgios/Vessley:

I see the public is all over Kyrgios but I'm not sold on him winning this match. Kyrgios has been on the court for 6 hours 30 mins... Vessley 3 hours 30 mins... Yes Vessley has played doubles but you hardly move in doubles.... For argument sake, let's say its close to even time wise. I believe Kyrgios had to waste way more energy and stress coming back down 0-2 sets then Vessley had trying to hold a 2-0 set lead... Kyrgios looked very physically fatigued vs gasquet after his win. Talent vs talent both fresh I believe it's still an even match. I think Vessley wins SU 3-1 sets but then again I don't know how tired he is from doubles.. With that all said I think this can go to 4 sets minimum... Perhaps 5


Zvonereva is 14-4 on grass the last 4 years.... She's only lost to big name players. Diyas is a solid grass courter as well but I really can't believe she was this big of a favorite... The public is pounding her hard because she caught Navarro off her game?? Zvonereva beat Veic who is young but talented. I think this will be close between these two. I'm hoping the Dog comes out on top here.

[FlipsideRM]

Didn't Zvonereva have a shoulder injury?

[matt1216]

Didn't Zvonereva have a shoulder injury?

She hasn't played a lot because of it but I think she's find so far this tourney

[JC1186]

Matt you really shouldn't bet on players you haven't watched. You should try to make more informed bets. Otherwise you're just going by stats and previous matches which isn't always the best indicator.

Zvonareva's record on grass means diddly squat because she's no longer the same player. You should know that.

Vera's been awful. Vekic was dire.

Diyas will be too consistent from the baseline imo.

Good luck anyway.

[kenz]

Watched Diyas once against Mchale on clay maybe 2-3 weeks ago, she is good and in form.

For Berdych to get swept I am not deeply surprised. He was giving SOS on every grass court game + when Cilic plays he is very dangerous on grass + Not the first time Cilic sweeps Berdych on grass (Queen's 2013). Actually Cilic was so good @pre-doping-ban days nobody should be surprised if he beat Murray in the final. That game was so close

BOL matt

[poet]

25-46 -47.4

*Just terrible luck lately. I dont know how Berdych dosnt win a set, he shouldnt even be top 10. Granollers flops after a 2-1 set lead. 80% of Everybody and there Dog was on Stak(including me)..... Once again a Frenchman bends me over.

I was on Stak and the over 3.5 with Birdshit. Stak 0-5 for break opportunities (and then just quit) and birdshit was birdshit. These were the right plays but both guys chocked at key moments! I hate this shit, you pick the right play and still lose. Who is the french penetrate playing next? I'm gonna fade his ass until it kills me.

[brodie]

I was on Stak and the over 3.5 with Birdshit. Stak 0-5 for break opportunities (and then just quit) and birdshit was birdshit. These were the right plays but both guys chocked at key moments! I hate this shit, you pick the right play and still lose. Who is the french penetrate playing next? I'm gonna fade his ass until it kills me.

if you lost then you didnt make the right play

[poet]

if you lost then you didnt make the right play

You should change your screen-name to Mr. Obvious.

[hendrafirmanto]

petko had injury during her last match

[matt1216]

Hey JC1186, I knew about her past but I didn't realize that she had just hurt herself... Damn I'm guessing that was the jump in price....

Kenz, Berdych's best surface is Grass statistically I see no reason why he couldn't win a set... I understand he lost in straights on grass befor to Cilic... Maybe Berdych was feeling huge pressure to win here. His 1st set loss was pure horse shit... I do agree Cilic has been great on grass.

Brodie, all Diffrences aside sometimes it dosnt matter what side your on, you still get fcked... Maybe I was due for this, but at the same time I know exactly why I'm failing..... It will fix itself soon.

Poet, thanks man... Stak and Berdch have let me down befor, so I shouldn't be suprised. Chardy, that French POS has let me down more than a safety harness at a carnival. The guy is trash, yet he fcks. Me like Paire/Mannarino/Mahut/Simon/Llodra all put together.

[Hardcoar]

if you lost then you didnt make the right play

That's not true at all. If you lose on average you didn't make the right plays.

[matt1216]

-Risk +1.5 sets 3.20 x 1.5 units

[brodie]

That's not true at all. If you lose on average you didn't make the right plays.

bro.... a right play is a winning play, period. if you lose then you didn't make the right play

it's not a tough concept

[JC1186]

My mistake Matt. Thought I'd catch Vera since I haven't seen her since Feb this year, and she actually looks very good.

Good bet. Hope it cashes.

[JC1186]

^^

I wrote the above at Vera serving for the set and up 40-0.

She has now lost 9 points straight.

Wtf is wrong with these women?

Her nickname was always "MadVera" for good reason I guess.

She was in complete control lol.

[unlearn]

Jesus Christ is there a bigger mush on the penetrating planet?? Please tell me you're on Ivanovic...

[Hardcoar]

bro.... a right play is a winning play, period. if you lose then you didn't make the right play

it's not a tough concept

Bro... a "right" (or "good", if you will) play is one that holds value, meaning that its odds reflect a lower probability of occurrence than reality dictates. Even if such a bet would lose more than it would win, it would still be a good bet because the chances of it winning are greater than required for a net profit. For instance, mere chance might result in the loss of a bet with a 99% chance of winning, and vice versa (that is to say the win of a bet with a 1% chance of winning), regardless of any potential odds offered.

It's a tough concept... fundamental logical reasoning for six-year-olds.

[JC1186]

Tbh surprised you bothered HC.

I thought better of it.

[matt1216]

25-46 -47.4

*Just terrible luck lately. I dont know how Berdych dosnt win a set, he shouldnt even be top 10. Granollers flops after a 2-1 set lead. 80% of Everybody and there Dog was on Stak(including me)..... Once again a Frenchman bends me over.

25-49 -52.9

Tough day. I thought my assessment of Kyrgios/Vessley was decent, but of course I parlay that with Horse Face.....

I also backed risk +1.5 sets... My thought was Sharapova might start slow like she did in every match in the French open.... Risk was up a break but her horse shit returning was the end of her winning anything at all.


* this day off came at the right time for me.... I'm done with the parlays... I had my success with SU plays so that's what I'm going back to.

I even had Keys to win the First set live ........ She was up 6-3 in the tiebreaker and found a way to lose, wtf.... I think I'm cursed.



For anybody that's interested I'm on Shedova to win the 2nd Tiebreaker on Monday vs Keys..... Keys was injured but the Darkness saved her ass.... Get this, Shedova asked to stop playing, then she realized how much of a moron she was because now keys gets Rest.... You guys might as well Pound Keys to win the 2nd Tiebreaker on Monday.

[matt1216]

Jesus Christ is there a bigger mush on the penetrating planet?? Please tell me you're on Ivanovic...

I didn't take Ivanovic, but If I had to choose I would have played the Ivanovic ML.

[matt1216]

My mistake Matt. Thought I'd catch Vera since I haven't seen her since Feb this year, and she actually looks very good.

Good bet. Hope it cashes.

No worries bud, she looked motivated to me but of course, in classic Russian tennis style, she completely shit the bed... She really owned the match all the way up until the final break of the 3rd set

[brodie]

Bro... a "right" (or "good", if you will) play is one that holds value, meaning that its odds reflect a lower probability of occurrence than reality dictates. Even if such a bet would lose more than it would win, it would still be a good bet because the chances of it winning are greater than required for a net profit. For instance, mere chance might result in the loss of a bet with a 99% chance of winning, and vice versa (that is to say the win of a bet with a 1% chance of winning), regardless of any potential odds offered.

It's a tough concept... fundamental logical reasoning for six-year-olds.

right play=you get money

wrong play=no money

[matt1216]

-Debakker ML 1.44 x 5 units



GL

[JC1186]

right play=you get money

wrong play=no money

Bolelli against Nishikori. Currently 3-3 in the 5th.

Whatever the result on Monday, Bolelli at 9.80 was the right play.

[matt1216]

Bolelli against Nishikori. Currently 3-3 in the 5th.

Whatever the result on Monday, Bolelli at 9.80 was the right play.

I tried explaining this in that other guys thread.... Where he put the house on Dmitrov/Nishikori/Murray... Guys were saying Bolleli hasn't beaten anyone decent.... I hope Bolleli wins

[SirtySree]

Bolelli at 9.8 aint really value though. It is saying that Nish loses 1 in 10 games against opponents of Bolleli's ability which is not the case. Nish has hardly lost to anyone like that for quite a while now. It is just like the Kukushkin/Nadal match @15 when Nadal doesn't lose to those type of players 1 out of 15 matches. This is also taking into account rubbish tournaments but if you count grandslams only, you would have to pay me like 100 to 1 for me to think Kukushkin is value.

[Hardcoar]

-Debakker ML 1.44 x 5 units



GL

Those odds are the shittiest of shitty odds my eyes have ever beheld!

[SirtySree]

Those odds are the shittiest of shitty odds my eyes have ever beheld!

He'll take a win anyway he can right now. Almost won.

[Hardcoar]

right play=you get money

wrong play=no money

No. You mistake "right play" for "play that happened to win, regardless the probability of it and odds offered".

Let me try to make it even simpler:

If you could have bet on Murray to beat Stepanek at Queen's Club just the other week at (pre-match) odds of @ 3, would it have been considered a bad bet simply because of the freak occurrence of a Murray loss?

[Hardcoar]

He'll take a win anyway he can right now. Almost won.

Well yeah... nothing against Matt at all but DAMN odds were like @ 1.65 at least. Was it a live play??