ITT I Bet Air

**Marillion** · 05-04-14, 11:51 AM

Weintraub to defeat Moriya (1.72) - 3 units

**Marillion** · 05-04-14, 12:56 PM

Gajdosova to defeat Bychkova (1.61) - 2 units loss
Menendez-Maceiras to defeat Mecir (1.83) - 2 units loss
Mladenovic to defeat Razzano (1.61) - 2 units win
Groth/Guccione to defeaet T. Ito/Chiudinelli (1.72) - 2 units win
Gajdosova to defeat Bychkova (1.61) - 2 units loss
Arruabarena-Vecino to defeat Pironkova (1.72) - 4 units win
Jovanovski to defeat Knapp (1.83) - 1 unit win
Nara to defeat Shuai Peng (2.50) - 0.5 unit loss
Petkovic to defeat Errani (2.10) - 1 unit loss
Davis to defeat McHale (2.20) - 0.5 unit loss
Barthel to defeat Cetkovska (2.20) - 2 units loss
Bencic to defeat S. Williams (15.00) - 2 units loss
Groth/Guccione to defeat Smith/Krajicek (1.57) - 1 unit win
S. Williams/Bencic over 16.5 games (1.61) - 10 units loss
Stephens to defeat Niculescu (2.00) - 4 units win
Rosol to defeat Chardy (1.53) - 2 units loss

Wins-Losses-Void
301-202-18

total units risked: 906

YTD
+53.42 units

ROI
5.9%

**Marillion** · 05-04-14, 01:05 PM

OK, here are several rules I am implementing now in order to maintain discipline and money management, and avoid the thread being a mess.

- never more than 4 units per match. If I think I have huge value, I'll just pound 4 units and that's it.
- update with results after every day I have made plays. Otherwise, the thread becomes a mess and I spend a lot of time checking which results I have already tracked and which - not
- I'll reduce the ITF level bets and make plays on the lowest level only if I feel really confident about them

GL to me and to all the buds in the forum.

**hendrafirmanto** · 05-04-14, 01:09 PM

meh, kerber just retired

**Marillion** · 05-04-14, 01:14 PM

Yeah, I am watching too. Horrible. I really hate when someone makes a try and when they see they don't stand a chance, they retire. The beginning of the second set here was very, very similar to the Coric - Ze Zhang match.

Everybody laughed their ass off Azarenka being a screaming bitch in her match against Lauren Davis but at least she fought until the last point being barely able to move. Jarkko Nieminen is also one of these fighters. He's old now and often his deteriorating physical abilities cause him to lose matches but at least he stays until the last point, like vs Young in Acapulco or vs Falla recently.

Of course, if you know you have to retire, you do it but a lot of the times these scrubs are pathetic.

**hendrafirmanto** · 05-04-14, 10:08 PM

[QUOTE][Yeah, I am watching too. Horrible. I really hate when someone makes a try and when they see they don't stand a chance, they retire. The beginning of the second set here was very, very similar to the Coric - Ze Zhang match./QUOTE]

Yes, very unlucky, did your bookie also void the bet?

Anyway, what do you think with this double : garcia/jans over stosur/kuznet?
Reason : Stosur and Kuz will play their single match today, they will run out of gas

**sluggy1616** · 05-04-14, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by Marillion

OK, here are several rules I am implementing now in order to maintain discipline and money management, and avoid the thread being a mess.

- never more than 4 units per match. If I think I have huge value, I'll just pound 4 units and that's it.
- update with results after every day I have made plays. Otherwise, the thread becomes a mess and I spend a lot of time checking which results I have already tracked and which - not
- I'll reduce the ITF level bets and make plays on the lowest level only if I feel really confident about them

GL to me and to all the buds in the forum.

If you don't mind, how much time on average do you spend researching your picks per day?

**miniuser** · 05-04-14, 10:34 PM

lol Garcia 3.10 was my biggest sportsbet ever, unreal

**Marillion** · 05-05-14, 02:37 AM

Sluggy - not much. I spend a decent amount of time (several hours a day approximately) watching games and tennis-related stuff but when I see the game I don't spend like half an hour thinking about it or stuff like that...

hendra - yeah, they voided my Garcia bet also. I wouldn't take Garcia in doubles... I don't know much about doubles but IMO even if both Kuznetsova and Stosur have had a match the same day, that shouldn't be an incentive... even if both players' matches could be long and tiring.

**Marillion** · 05-05-14, 02:40 AM

Michon to defeat Fischer (1.83) - 1 unit
A. Zverev to defeat Eysseric (3.25) - 0.5 unit

**Marillion** · 05-05-14, 02:43 AM

Gombos to defeat Gianessi (1.50) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 05-05-14, 02:49 AM

Svitolina +5.5 games against Jankovic (1.72) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 05-05-14, 02:53 AM

Parmentier to defeat Arvidsson (1.61) - 2 units

**hendrafirmanto** · 05-05-14, 06:03 AM

I wouldn't take Garcia in doubles... I don't know much about doubles

You should try sometimes, at least try hingis/lisiski, still good odds and they are on winning streaks.
Ok thx man, good luck to the rest of your bets

**Marillion** · 05-05-14, 01:22 PM

Weintraub to defeat Moriya (1.72) - 3 units win
Michon to defeat Fischer (1.83) - 1 unit win
A. Zverev to defeat Eysseric (3.25) - 0.5 unit loss
Gombos to defeat Gianessi (1.50) - 2 units win
Svitolina +5.5 games against Jankovic (1.72) - 2 units win
Parmentier to defeat Arvidsson (1.61) - 2 units loss
Rosol to defeat Chardy (1.53) - 2 units loss
Garcia to defeat Kerber (3.00) - 3 units void
Delbonis to defeat Lopez (1.53) - 1 unit loss
Haase to defeat Nieminen (1.53) - 2 units loss
Torro-Flor to defeat Pavlyuchenkova (1.66) - 1 unit loss

Wins-Losses-Void
305-208-19

total units risked: 925.5

YTD
+50.35 units

ROI
5.44%

Anderson ML and Dimitrov ML pending

**Marillion** · 05-05-14, 03:46 PM

PARLAY: Ivanovic (to defeat Jovanovski) + Ram (to defeat Wolmarans) (1.39) - 1 units

**Marillion** · 05-06-14, 03:04 AM

PARLAY: Rogowska (to defeat Kr. Schmiedlova) + Dimitrov (to defeat Copil) (1.43) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 05-06-14, 03:26 PM

Anderson to defeat Stepanek (1.83) - 4 units win
Dimitrov to defeat Carreno-Busta (1.25) - 1 unit win

Wins-Losses-Void
307-208-19

total units risked: 930.5

YTD
+53.92 units

ROI
5.8%

**Marillion** · 05-06-14, 03:29 PM

Riske to defeat Suarez Navarro (5.50) - 1 unit

**kenz** · 05-06-14, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by Marillion

Riske to defeat Suarez Navarro (5.50) - 1 unit

BOL Marillion

But definitely disagree

Last time Navarro lost to a dog over @2.30 on clay in a Spanish-talked country is 2009. This includes Spain, Mexico, Colombia, even Portugal and Brazil where Portuguese is talked

And Riske sucks

**Marillion** · 05-06-14, 03:55 PM

I saw her match against Meusburger and she was definitely not at her best, seemed out of gas. If she was playing like she had been playing in Portugal, she would have crushed Yvonne. Also the fact that Riske has finally managed to take win - so I thought it's worth a unit at 5.50.

Of course maybe you're right and also maybe I should have waited for the handicap line to open to consider Riske +5.5. Thanks anyway and GL to you too. You'll kick asses in the new thread, I'm sure.

p.s. Hated that over bet on Bautista at 1.60 though.

**Marillion** · 05-06-14, 03:57 PM

Oh btw I have a new rule. Only ATP, Challenger and WTA. Spending tons of time looking at ITF level matches is definitely not worth it. Even playing poker at 2NL is more profitable than this.

(unless I notice at first glance something that is fat value but I have seen that only twice)

**kenz** · 05-06-14, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by Marillion

I saw her match against Meusburger and she was definitely not at her best, seemed out of gas. If she was playing like she had been playing in Portugal, she would have crushed Yvonne. Also the fact that Riske has finally managed to take win - so I thought it's worth a unit at 5.50.

Of course maybe you're right and also maybe I should have waited for the handicap line to open to consider Riske +5.5. Thanks anyway and GL to you too. You'll kick asses in the new thread, I'm sure.

p.s. Hated that over bet on Bautista at 1.60 though.

BOL Marillion

Anything can happen in tennis, CSN is not Serena, who has her own share of big upsets.

I think over was too obvious in nando - Agut, the problem is I am new to my thread and did not want a loss. I should take at least over 23 with a way better price instead of 22.

Thanks for the kind words

**kenz** · 05-06-14, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Marillion

Oh btw I have a new rule. Only ATP, Challenger and WTA. Spending tons of time looking at ITF level matches is definitely not worth it. Even playing poker at 2NL is more profitable than this.

(unless I notice at first glance something that is fat value but I have seen that only twice)

**Marillion** · 05-06-14, 04:46 PM

Simon to defeat Kubot (1.38) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 05-06-14, 04:47 PM

Kuznetsova to defeat Radwanska (2.20) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 05-07-14, 02:31 AM

Giustino to defeat Jaziri (1.72) - 2 units

**hendrafirmanto** · 05-07-14, 03:02 AM

No caroline garcia play for today mate?

**Marillion** · 05-07-14, 03:09 AM

Hey man, no, no value in her and odds already gone down. Interesting to see what her odds against Errani will be. Only other play for today is:

Matosevic - Isner over 22.5 games (1.80) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 05-07-14, 03:16 AM

OK, adding this

Almagro to defeat Murray (2.00) - 2 units

**hendrafirmanto** · 05-07-14, 04:16 AM

Lol yeah, she just won by another retirement.

**Marillion** · 05-07-14, 01:02 PM

Isner to defeat Ferrer (4.33) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 05-07-14, 02:30 PM

Garcia to defeat Errani (2.62) - 1 unit

Worth it IMO even if Errani is a big grinder and solid on clay.

**Marillion** · 05-08-14, 04:19 AM

Giustino to defeat Cechinato (1.83) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 05-08-14, 04:29 AM

Kubot +5.5 games against Bautista-Agut (1.80) - 3 units

The match is going to be on the same court Kubot played against Simon yesterday. A covert court, pretty fast. Yesterday, Kubot was serving very well and applying a lot of pressure.