Carreno-Busta to defeat Kamke (1.50) - 1 unit
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Pironkova to win 1st set against Hlavackova (1.44) - 1 unitComment -
mladenovic an example of what i hate about WTA...FAR more often than in ATP the favored player looks like they forgot what they do for a living and/or WHY...happens at even the very highest level...#3 ARad will look like a weekend player with a plane to catch surprisingly often...paylyukuntova is another one who seems like a random twat pretending to be a WTA player more often than she actually looks like a tennis player
it's not just lack of power...it's lack of focus/mental toughness...most top-50 ATP guys can't always bring their "A game", of course...but son of a bitch you can guarantee they always bring their "A effort"...same can not be said about many of these bitches...i used to think it had to do with their menstrual cycle, but it seems to happen far more often than every 29 daysLast edited by fitguy67; 04-07-14, 11:38 PM.Comment -
Carballes Baena to defeat Goffin (3.40) - 3 units
Delbonis to defeat Simon (1.80) - 1 unitComment -
Foster to defeat Schuurs (2.00) - 0.5 unitComment -
Fitguy there is certainly a good degree of truth in what you say. Mladenovic - well she is supposed to be very talented but results speak of themselves... I saw her last win (vs Konta) and I saw her yesterday - nothing special.
Pavluychenkova has some fn power and when the court is hard and fast and she is not drunk she can pretty much roll over anybody like she did in the Paris tournament... but she may be really horrible like in the match vs Wozniak.
I really don't know much but maybe what you say is right - that in female tennis, the price for errors and weaknesses isn't as high as in men's tennis (and that surely applies to a lot of sports).Comment -
the key difference i notice between male vs. female elite-level tennis is this...
An amazingly-casual attitude toward holding service...and i'm NOT referring to the tangible physiological barriers to developing nuclear-weapon serves like men (especially--but not exclusively--the monstrously tall ones)...i'm talking about the "tooth and nail" importance to holding at all costs one's serve, no matter what the score is...0-30, even 0-40, "damn i just can NOT let this bastard break me"...tooth and nail...especially stubborn war on all fronts is called for when under pressure to give up the very first break of a match...hell how many times have we seen entire men's matches go with a tiny tiny handful (even zero) of failures to hold service...even among non big-servers...hell, watch a top challenger-level guy like Klahn or Ram or Ebden or Sella versus a top-tier ATP'r and marvel at just how long they'll hold out before giving up that inevitable first crucial break to a superior player...why do they fight so hard...because NOT being broken easily is the SINGLE most important aspect of excellence in the game
women, by contrast have this maddening "oh well, haha...i just failed to hold my serve...but not to worry, i'll just have to break you on yours...maybe even break you RIGHT back, right now"...this attitude underlies why gash-rackets blows...
think of it...Nishikori vs. Ferrer...no big weapon-serves on either side of the court...BUT it's hard as hell to break someone on THEIR serve...it's like going into THEIR house and trying to piss on THEIR sofa in front of them (with Nadal, you might as well be trying to rape his woman) ...u'r up 40-15 on THEIR serve...think it'll get easy to notch up a break...no way...it gets harder...you just steel their resolve to NOT let you insult them in THEIR house...why do they fight so hard...because they know it'll be just as hard=damn near impossible in some cases to "just get the break back"...so you do anything to "draw the line" here
women, by contrast have this casual "just play the points and see what happens...if i play well enough today, i'll register MORE breaks than you" attitude to the whole match...no "tooth and nail", no "i am not going to let you break me, you bitch...you think the point that just brought you to 40 was hard to get...watch me dig in and fight now...this is MY freakin' serve here...you're in MY home..."...none of that...instead it's "oh well, it's 15-40, haha...hope you don't break me this time...but if you do, there's plenty of time later in the set to get it back..."
...
THIS CASUAL ATTITUDE TO HOLDING SERVICE(not the lack of a "weapons grade" serve/groundstrokes) is what makes gash-rackets generally a vastly-inferior product...
a few days ago Petkovic played Bouchard in the Miami final and it was an exceptionally hard-headed exception to the usual "patty-cake...let's see what happens" WTA crap...a sense of importance and urgency...and primacy of HOLDING service as a non-negotiable "key to victory"...there were a good handful of breaks overall but each and every one was hard-fought, which for me made it entertaining and a bettor on either side of the match got their "money's worth" because both fought to the last point, with respect to the special importance of "breaking service when the opportunity arises...BUT HOLDING YOUR OWN SERVICE AT ALL COSTS"
neither Nishikori nor Ferrer are big servers...but both are mentally-tough scrappers...result is a hell of match (even replace one of these with a much lower tier non-big-serving guy like Ram, Klahn, Ebden, Sock, Sella...and you'll still have something watchable...and if you got a decent price on the dog...you'll generally get your fair shake...hell, Nishi/Ferrer don't run and hide when they face Karlo/Isner/Anderson/Cilic/Raonic...they dig in even harder on their own serve, knowing the guy's firing missiles...and bide their time (another key to mental toughness...opportunities to break their opponent WILL arise...but till they do...the bastid' ain't breaking me)
sorry about the word blizzard...it helped me crystallize EXACTLY what it is that maddens me about women's tennis, and why i HATE laying chalk on a favorite who'll have an amazingly casual attitude to holding her own serve
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edit: Pironkova, s1@1.50 demonstrating once again why chalk-bets, tennis rackets and estrogen is a bad mix
Last edited by fitguy67; 04-08-14, 06:49 AM.Comment -
BTW, i think there's outstanding value here on Ouahab at 4.00ish vs. Ramos (shout out to EaglesPhan36)
Last edited by fitguy67; 04-08-14, 06:08 AM.Comment -
I am happy when you share your own thoughts... I will now look at this match, thanks a lot!
Btw WTA Katowice turned out to be not clay and not even indoor clay but... fast indoor hard! I would love to take Doi at 2.00 against Espinosa here lol.
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Update after yesterday
A. Beck to defeat Barthel (1.66) - 3 units win
Mladenovic to defeat Panova (1.72) - 2 units loss
Andrey Kuznetsov to defeat Simon (3.25) - 2 units loss
Fischer to defeat Carballes Baena (1.50) - 2 units loss
Wins-Losses-Void
194-123-15
total units risked: 571.14
YTD
+45.12 units
ROI
7.9%Comment -
thanks for that timely mention of the surface for the Doi/SolarEspinoza match...as you know, i held off previously, but because of your "blessing" i just snuck in a position on Doi...
btw...live-action value-"lottery ticket" opportunity...look into Pliskova over Radwanska...now early in s1...ARad ridiculously over-priced at -1600 = 1.0625
ARad has great skills, but depends on placement and shot-selection...doesn't have the power to dominate any top-100 opponent in a way that would justify a price like that...and Plisko is in decent form lately
a few bucks on both s1 and ml would go a long way
oops: rookie mistake: this is Krystina #137, and not Karolina #51 as i thought (so the odds make a bit more sense...still -2000/1.05 is way out of line for an opponent she can not "outgun" (...but certainly should out play)
now pulling for some garden-variety luck to make me a happy camper!Last edited by fitguy67; 04-08-14, 08:12 AM.Comment -
I considered that match but decided to stay away... but maybe there has been value in Pliskova indeed.
Speaking of Radwanska, I saw her live when she was like 17 (a Fed Cup event... probably the last tennis matches I saw before this year) and I think she is skinnier now lol. All respect for her talent and abilities though.Comment -
Btw I can't pick up futures at 365 (not for smaller tournaments) but I think there is some very good value for Cornet to win Katowice. In Betfair, you can bet on that at 12.5 or 14 odds, I am not sure, as I have never used that site and don't know how it works.
But if I had money, I would definitely go there and put some funds on her. The only player in this tournament Alizee will be a significant underdog to is Radwanska.Comment -
This is the updated record after today's bets, one pending play for tomorrow (Carreno-Busta), I may post some more games tomorrow if I find something I like.
Soler-Espinosa to defeat Doi (1.72) - 2 units win
Schmiedlova to defeat Begu (2.50) - 2 units loss
PARLAY: Cornet + Koukalova (1.31) - 1 unit win
Pfizenmaier to defeat Govortsova (2.25) - 1 unit void
Pironkova to win 1st set against Hlavackova (1.44) - 1 unit loss
Carballes Baena to defeat Goffin (3.40) - 3 units win
Delbonis to defeat Simon (1.80) - 1 unit win
Foster to defeat Schuurs (2.00) - 0.5 unit loss
Wins-Losses-Void
198-126-16
total units risked: 582.64
YTD
+51.36 units
ROI
8.82%Comment -
Jaksic to defeat Lucic-Baroni (3.00) - 1 unitComment -
Garcia to defeat Kovinic (1.50) - 3 units
Rola to defeat Alund (1.72) - 3 unitsComment -
Ilhan to defeat Albot (1.66) - 1 unitComment -
Rojer/Tecau to defeat Berlocq/L. Mayer (1.40) - 1 unitComment -
just a note re rola, he has flown back to europe, played davis cup then flown back to brazil so hopefully he's not too travel wornComment -
Anderson to defeat Hanescu (1.36) - 2 unitsComment -
Yeah, you are right. But I still feel good about it (maybe I'm wrong, of course).
Btw that Doi - Soler-Espinosa match was horrible.
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you have good value in that bet Marillion imo I was just pointing out why the books had him a bit higher than one would expect. That seems to have been corrected and he's too short now.Comment -
Alund to defeat Ghem (1.61) - 1 unitComment -
Carreno-Busta to defeat Kamke (1.50) - 1 unit win
Jaksic to defeat Lucic-Baroni (3.00) - 1 unit loss
Rola to defeat Alund (1.72) - 3 units loss
Ilhan to defeat Albot (1.66) - 1 unit loss
Rojer/Tecau to defeat Berlocq/L. Mayer (1.40) - 1 unit win
Anderson to defeat Hanescu (1.36) - 2 units loss
Wins-Losses-Void
200-130-16
total units risked: 591.64
YTD
+45.26 units
ROI
7.65%Comment -
Jankovic - Shapatava over 16.5 games (1.72) - 4 units
Shapatava to defeat Jankovic (19.00) - 1 unitComment -
Coppejans to defeat Schwartzman (3.00) - 0.5 unitComment -
fitguy if you read this, check how Garcia will now fight until the end and win the 3rd set just like you say she does!
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Carballes Baena to defeat Andrey Kuznetsov (1.66) - 2 unitsComment -
Sure I may be missing something here but odds have moved up a bit..
Carballes Baena to defeat Andrey Kuznetsov (1.72) - 2 unitsComment -
Garcia to defeat Kovinic (1.50) - 3 units win
Alund to defeat Ghem (1.61) - 1 unit loss
Jankovic - Shapatava over 16.5 games (1.72) - 4 units win
Shapatava to defeat Jankovic (19.00) - 1 unit loss
Wins-Losses-Void
202-132-16
total units risked: 600.64
YTD
+47.64 units
ROI
7.93%Comment -
Rybarikova to defeat Suarez Navarro (2.20) - 0.5 unitComment -
Jankovic - Arruabarena-Vecino over 17.5 games (1.83) - 4 unitsComment -
Garcia to defeat Oprandi (2.37) - 4 unitsComment
