Good job EP
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2014 Season Overall Profit: +2.73Comment -
7.10.14 ATP Newport
Parlay: Guccione/Hewitt + Karlovic
*Risking 1.00 units to win 0.71 unitsComment -
Newport may be Servebot Central for the semis.Comment -
7.11.14
ATP Stuttgart: Rosol-Lopez Over 22.5 @ +100Comment -
Adding...
ATP Newport: Hewitt @ -142
*To win 0.5 unitsComment -
I don't know whether he'll do it in 2 or 3, but I'm feeling Rusty over SJ.Comment -
Hewitt in straights
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Isner loss gives real life to Hewitt futures.Comment -
2014 Season Overall Profit: +4.94Comment -
7.12.14 ATP Newport
Hewitt-Sock Total Sets Over 2.5 @ +155 *Risking 0.5 unit
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True patheticness of Sock has arrived. If i didn't have the Hewitt future, I would have double dipped on the ML today but did not feel like that was wise ... but it looks a lot more wise now
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Long month? The only excuse he had was travel really. He hasn't played much in the way or matches outside of doubles and dubs does not take that much out of you playing every other day or so. He just finally ran into someone who could take advantage of his poor play I think. If he's tired, he really needs to get a better trainer. Not like he had to extend himself that much this week.Comment -
EP, you do realize the stress of winning those doubles matchs take a ton out of you... His last two doubles match were rediculous, mentally. Of course travel sucks all the energy out of you. He had to jump 5 time zones and play tennis right away. He's also looked like shit all week. Today was his first opponent that can actually return fairly well. His state physically today was brutal.Comment -
ATP Bogota Mini-View
It's Year #2 of this tweener tournament. It's sandwiched in between the end of the last grass court tournament in Newport and the beginning of the US Open Hard Court series for the Summer. Last year's Champion Ivo Karlovic is back the 2nd seed this year. Richard Gasquet tops the draw with Vasek Pospisil as the 3rd seed and Radek Stepanek as the 4th. One thing to consider here is the altitude. Bogota is more than 8,000 feet above sea level. That can make it interesting for guys who do not get to acclimate to that first - like a Karlovic who will be on a short turnaround from Newport. Being a 250 level tournament, watch for upsets and key in on those 1st matches to see who is comfortable in this setting. That could help sort out the week.
Seed Report
#1 Gasquet
I was pretty surprised to see Gasquet playing here. Traditionally, he only plays the Masters Hard Court matches in Cincinnati & Montreal. The obvious joke is here. Colombia. Gasquet. Cocaine. I'll watch him play a match before I even think about wagering on anything related to him this week.
#2 Karlovic
Dr.Ivo used the high altitude here last year to his advantage as he bashed his way to the title. The field was more difficult last year, so a repeat is not out of the question. The big question though is from a fitness standpoint for the big man. Can he go deep in this tournament after making a Finals appearance in Newport and having to travel? His draw helps. It's got semifinals or better written on it if he can hold up.
#3 Pospisil
If there's an untrustworthy list, Pospisil is on it. He just can't seem to get things strung together to get into good form. After what looked like decent form in Holland prior to Wimbledon, he flamed out in Round One at the All-England Club against Haase. Still, he made the semis here last year and the surface/altitude should be conducive to his game. His draw is decent, but he'll have last year's finalist Falla to go through at some point perhaps just to get to the semis.
#4 Stepanek
Another weird entry here to me. Stepanek is another guy like Gasquet that normally sits out until the bigger US Open Hard Court series tournaments. His quarter is full of less than thrilling names, mostly Challenger-level guys who are out of their element. Donskoy-Gonzalez winner in the 1st round could be his main competition to a semifinal birth.
#5 Falla
The home-stamding Colombian made the Final last year and could be a threat again this year with the extra motivation that some other players might be lacking. He does have a little bit tougher draw that most though. He opens against Ito, a capable hard court player. A win would pit him against Tomic or Dustov and as mentioned, Pospisil could be the player standing in his way for a semifinal trip. He's definitely one to watch though.
#6 Gonzalez
Another Colombian playing at home, but playing on just a so-so surface for him as he prefers clay. He does have some decent results on hard courts here & there though, so he's not altogether to be overlooked. That being said, he might be lucky to get out of the 1st round against Donskoy who has been playing on hard courts prior to this week and has been in pretty solid form on the surface.
#7 Ebden
You know it's a small tournament when Ebden grabs a seed. The Aussie is in woeful form with just one win on the tour since April. He could definitely be bitten first-up by qualifier who has some match play under their belt. Look for their match-up and I'd think heavily about going against Ebden again.
#8 Estrella Burgos
The Dominican withdrew from Eastbourne & Wimbledon with injuries. He did win a match here last year after going through qualis, but there's not much in the lead up here that beckons you to support this guy. He'll have a qualifier first up and that's another spot where the qualifier might be well backed.
Qualifiers
Even though the tournament is still an infant with just one year under its belt, there's still stats to back up whether or not qualifying helps players here. With the altitude adjustment it takes to play in Bogota, your thoughts would be yes - playing qualis is advantageous. You're right. In 2013, qualifiers were 3-1 in the 1st round. It should be noted all lost to better players in the 2nd round, so keep that in mind.
Futures Watch
Pospisil +1600
Karlovic +600Comment -
7.14.14
ATP Hamburg Doubles: Kas-Emmrich @ +195
Binghamton Challenger: Nguyen @ -145Comment -
I like Dr. Ivo's futures @+600. He is only outclassed by Gasquet, and I really do not think Gasquet will stick around for a long time here. As you said, fatigue might be a major factor too, but at +600 this seems to be worth the risk.Comment -
Adding...
Parlay: Mannarino + Copil (Binghamton) @ +112Comment -
The plus for Ivo is getting a bye, so I think his first match is Wednesday. Should allow for rest & acclamation tothe conditions.Comment -
Guess the switch back to hard courts and rest didn't do a Damn thing for Mannarino.Comment -
2014 Season Overall Profit: +3.94Comment -
7.15.14
Poznan Challenger: Smirnov @ -145
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Adding...
Binghamton Challenger: Novikov +180
ATP Bogota: Londero +160
ATP Bogota: Donskoy +179Comment -
Reducing Donskoy to 0.25 units instead of the usual 0.5 unitsComment -
Adding...
Granby Challenger: Escobar +105
*Rain delayComment -
Adding *Stupidly
ATP Bogota: 1st Set Cabal +240
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Meh. Pretty standard. Groth looks a little shaky, but Cabal cracks once and the set is over. Okay, so that's my one "loose" bet of the week. Slow night, stupid bet. Whatcha gonna do when Bored-a-mania runs wild on you?Comment -
2014 Season Overall Profit: +2.69Comment -
7.16.14
ATP Hamburg: Monaco @ -125
ATP Bogota: Pella +1.5 Sets @ +275
ATP Bogota: Pospisil-Kuznetsov Over 2.5 Sets @ +155
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Surprisingly, Bovada. Threw a little bit of money in there for a World Cup bonus. Had not played there probably since th start of the year. Surprised to see that option, but pretty nice since they don't have games totals till late in tourneys & this gives you those nice plus odds.Comment -
Looks like a day of near misses. Pella blows a 4-1 1st set lead to lose in a TB. Monaco gave up break leads twice in the 3rd and I think a mini in the TB. Welcome to tennis betting!
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Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.Comment
