THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Third Thread <3 – Tennis Picks

[poet]

I think it's too hard to call either way.

Thanks, HC. Do you know of any site that will have recent match info for Halep and Venus. In particular I want to know how many unforced errors they and their opponents are making the past two matches. Matchstat doesn't have that info yet.

[Hardcoar]

Supposedly TI. I have no idea personally though.

[Hardcoar]

Ratiwatana/Ratiwatana @ 1.83 – 10 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Lu @ 1.735 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Konta 1:st @ 1.83 – 10 units (Bet365)
Konta 2-0 @ 3 – 8 units (Bet365)

KEXX
LUXX

Haase @ 1.909 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Total hits: 184
Total mishits: 230
Total stake: 2926u
Total yield: +70.802
ROI: +2.42 % (rounded)

Pending:

Melo/Sa @ 1.8 – 10 units (Bet365)

[Hardcoar]

Simon 1:st @ 1.73 – 10 units (William Hill)
Simon 2:nd @ 1.73 – 10 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Melzer @ 1.73 – 10 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Baghdatis 1:st @ 2.75 – 10 units (Bet365)

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks, HC. Do you know of any site that will have recent match info for Halep and Venus. In particular I want to know how many unforced errors they and their opponents are making the past two matches. Matchstat doesn't have that info yet.

I don't think you'll find anywhere that has unforced error stats for matches unless it's a Grand Slam. TI has your major stats that you can get off the scoreboard software from ATP/WTA as far as serve stats, return stats, etc. Errors though I do not think I have ever seen tracked outside of Slams.

[Hardcoar]

Williams -2.5 @ evens – 10 units (Ladbrokes)

[Hardcoar]

So what... is Bouchard the new Halep all of a sudden!??

Not buying!

[Hardcoar]

Sousa 2-0 @ 2.5 – 10 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Tursunov @ 1.5 – 10 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Knowle/Melzer @ 1.67 – 8 units (Ladbrokes)

[Fistula]

Why do you like Simon so much vs Tomic? And couldn't flying half way around the world just after the high of winning in France affect him?

[apeterlives]

Simon has fared well indoors, in improving form coming off Metz, and last time around in Bangkok he made a good run. Holds 1-0 h2h against Tomic.

Tomic has been just okay indoors, and he's coming off a retirement win from Karlovic (who injured his back after winning the first set tiebreak).

I don't think Simon winning Metz, or traveling, will affect his play. Simon seems to be healthy as well. On the other hand Tomic can be unpredictable with his play and motivation, and can be frustrating to back. Odds say Simon, but little high, and not taking the chance with Tomic.

*might be more worth looking at live betting

[Hardcoar]

Melo/Sa @ 1.8 – 10 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Simon 1:st @ 1.73 – 10 units (William Hill)
Simon 2:nd @ 1.73 – 10 units (William Hill)

KEXX
KEXX

Melzer @ 1.73 – 10 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Baghdatis 1:st @ 2.75 – 10 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Williams -2.5 @ evens – 10 units (Ladbrokes)

KEXX

Sousa 2-0 @ 2.5 – 10 units (William Hill)

FUXX

Tursunov @ 1.5 – 10 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Knowle/Melzer @ 1.67 – 8 units (Ladbrokes)

FUXX

Total hits: 189
Total mishits: 234
Total stake: 3014u
Total yield: +70.802
ROI: +2.31 % (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Kerber @ 1.8 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)
Kerber 2-0 @ 3 – 4 units (Ladbrokes)

[Manel88]

Do you like Kvitova ?

[Hardcoar]

@ 1.8 absolutely not. It wouldn't be as bad as backing Bouchard @ 2.5, but compare it to Halep @ 1.9 again and use your brain from there.

Furthermore, asking who I think will win is completely irrelevant unless the odds are @ evens or higher.

[Hardcoar]

Tursunov 1:st @ 3 – 8 units (Bet365)

[Manel88]

@ 1.8 absolutely not. It wouldn't be as bad as backing Bouchard @ 2.5, but compare it to Halep @ 1.9 again and use your brain from there.

Furthermore, asking who I think will win is completely irrelevant unless the odds are @ evens or higher.

You mean in this game or in general?

[Hardcoar]

50 % = 1/2.

Yes. In general.

[Manel88]

50 % = 1/2.

Yes. In general.

I don't get it... sorry... you just put a bet on Kerber at less than evens...

[Hardcoar]

The reason I bet on Kerber @ 1.8 is I think her chances of winning are far greater than 50 %.

If I think a certain player will win, that simply means I think the chances of that player winning are greater than 50 % (more likely to win than not) – It doesn't specify how likely I think said outcome is. As such, without any specified odds we will never know whether I think a wager on said player is also a good bet.

For instance, if I think Kerber is 51 % likely to win, ML @ 1.8 would be an absolutely horrible bet (provided that I'm also correct in my estimation of her chances).

[Manel88]

Ok... better understood now.

I got confused with the sentence you wrote that i put in bold above

[poet]

@ 1.8 absolutely not. It wouldn't be as bad as backing Bouchard @ 2.5, but compare it to Halep @ 1.9 again and use your brain from there.

Furthermore, asking who I think will win is completely irrelevant unless the odds are @ evens or higher.

HC, you are a very good capper but please don't claim Bouchard was a bad bet. I got her at +160 and feel like she had her chances. Venus played much better than I expected (better than against Halep) and the young girl got nervous on the big points. But taking Venus after her three setter against Halep at -180 or so was not a good bet, in my mind, even if she won and I'm sure EP would back me on this.

[Hardcoar]

Halep @ 1.9 may have been good (I was unsure as mentioned), so why the f*ck would anyone get the idea Bouchard @ 2.5 is a good bet? Do you really think Bouchard stands anywhere near as good a chance as Halep does?

[apeterlives]

Agree on Kerber, odds regardless think she has looked great. Then again Woz overall has had her number in the past, and can see this going 3 sets. Don't really have a good angle on this match, maybe playing the over 21.5 games.

I don't know about Tursunov 1st set though... Stan has been elevating his play, think he takes that match in straights, not touching that match. Wouldn't be surprised if Stan makes a run to the final here.

[Hardcoar]

Gasquet -0.5 @ 1.714 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Gasquet 2-0 @ 2.71 – 6 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Kerber 2-0 @ 3.5 – 10 units (William Hill)

[wagerjunkie]

looking good on Tursonov.

nice hit on Kvitova.

any thoughts on Lopez 1st set? or Milos gorilla ball too much for him?

[Hardcoar]

I didn't bet Kvitova. Kvitova @ 1.8 was a bad bet. Don't like it enough @ 2.62. Probably fair odds.

[Hardcoar]

Smyczek 1:st @ evens – 8 units (Bet365)

[wagerjunkie]

Meant Kerber my bad!

[Hardcoar]

Kerber @ 1.8 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)
Kerber 2-0 @ 3 – 4 units (Ladbrokes)

KEXX
KEXX

Tursunov 1:st @ 3 – 8 units (Bet365)

KEXX

Gasquet -0.5 @ 1.714 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

KEXX

Gasquet 2-0 @ 2.71 – 6 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Total hits: 193
Total mishits: 235
Total stake: 3052u
Total yield: +103,942u
ROI: +3.4 % (rounded)

Pending:

Kerber 2-0 @ 3.5 – 10 units (William Hill)

Smyczek 1:st @ evens – 8 units (Bet365)