THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Third Thread <3 – Tennis Picks

**Hardcoar** · 10-02-13, 10:41 AM

I'll add that I like her far better in this spot than against Kuznetsova. Safarova wasn't very impressive in her last match in my eyes and Petkovic owns this tournament. Add to that the H2H which is 3-1 Petkovic, the German having won the latest three matches in straight sets, two of which were played on this very court two and three years ago!! The only loss she's suffered to Safarova was at the USO in 2007.

**Hardcoar** · 10-02-13, 10:47 AM

Zeballos 1:st @ 3.75 – 4 units (Bet365)

**kenz** · 10-02-13, 10:50 AM

I am really interested in how you place your first set bets for underdogs? What are your criteria?

One is "Is the price close to the percentage of the outcome of the match?"

I am sure you take form as a consideration

What are the others? DO you take the upset ratio of the tournament history into consideration?

It is sometimes hard to fingerpoint exactly why you take a bet, but if you can give a brief guideline, I will appreciate it

BOL

**Hardcoar** · 10-02-13, 10:50 AM

Dodig 1:st @ 1.67 – 10 units (William Hill)

**Hardcoar** · 10-02-13, 10:55 AM

Petkovic @ evens – 10 units (Pinnacle)

**Hardcoar** · 10-02-13, 11:00 AM

Tomic 1:st @ 3.25 – 8 units (Bet365)

**Manel88** · 10-02-13, 11:27 AM

Two bets on Petkovic?

**Hardcoar** · 10-02-13, 11:45 AM

Uh-huh.

**Hardcoar** · 10-02-13, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by kenz

I am really interested in how you place your first set bets for underdogs? What are your criteria?

One is "Is the price close to the percentage of the outcome of the match?"

I am sure you take form as a consideration

What are the others? DO you take the upset ratio of the tournament history into consideration?

It is sometimes hard to fingerpoint exactly why you take a bet, but if you can give a brief guideline, I will appreciate it

BOL

Form is by far the most important factor to me. A few other vital things to look at are:

Schedule (recent match frequency, upcoming participation etc)
Tournament (surface, historical performance of player, tournament significance, etc)
H2H record.

Half the time I can't finger-point why I make a bet though, other than finding the odds definitely too high.

In the end the only factor that actually matters is whether you're convinced there's a positive margin (value) to the odds, as it is with every potentially successful bettor.

**Hardcoar** · 10-02-13, 11:59 AM

Klahn/McGee 1:st @ 3.25 – 6 units (Bet365)

**kenz** · 10-02-13, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Form is by far the most important factor to me. A few other vital things to look at are:

Schedule (recent match frequency, upcoming participation etc)
Tournament (surface, historical performance of player, tournament significance, etc)
H2H record.

Half the time I can't finger-point why I make a bet though, other than finding the odds definitely too high.

In the end the only factor that actually matters is whether you're convinced there's a positive margin (value) to the odds, as it is with every potentially successful bettor.

Thanks for the input HC

**Hardcoar** · 10-02-13, 02:55 PM

Fognini 1:st @ 8.5 – 6 units (Bet365)

**Hardcoar** · 10-03-13, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Wozniacki @ 1.57 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)

KEXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Wawrinka @ 1.4 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)

FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Kerber @ 1.5 – 8 units (Ladbrokes)

KEXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Errani/Vinci @ 1.44 – 10 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Verdasco 1:st @ 7.5 – 4 units (Ladbrokes)

FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Petkovic -0.5 @ 2.02 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Zeballos 1:st @ 3.75 – 4 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Petkovic @ evens – 10 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Tomic 1:st @ 3.25 – 8 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Klahn/McGee 1:st @ 3.25 – 6 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Total hits: 222
Total mishits: 258
Total stake: 3486u
Total yield: +259.702u
ROI: +7.45 % (rounded)

Pending:

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Dodig 1:st @ 1.67 – 10 units (William Hill)

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Fognini 1:st @ 8.5 – 6 units (Bet365)

**Hardcoar** · 10-03-13, 12:18 PM

Huta-Galung/Sijsling 1:st @ 3 – 10 units (Bet365)

**Hardcoar** · 10-03-13, 12:41 PM

Dogpoolove 1:st @ 4.33 – 8 units (Bet365)

**Hardcoar** · 10-03-13, 12:42 PM

Wozniacki @ 6.5 – 6 units (William Hill)
Wozniacki 2-0 @ 13 – 4 units (William Hill)

**Hardcoar** · 10-03-13, 03:05 PM

Wozniacki +5.5 @ 2.1 – 8 units (Bet365)

**Hardcoar** · 10-03-13, 03:17 PM

Radwanska -4 @ 2.89 – 6 units (Pinnacle)
Radwanska -2.5 @ 2.09 – 8 units (Pinnacle)

**Hardcoar** · 10-03-13, 03:20 PM

Jankovic -4.5 @ 3.07 – 8 units (Pinnacle)

**Hardcoar** · 10-03-13, 03:31 PM

Isner 2-1 @ 5.72 – 6 units (Pinnacle)

**Hardcoar** · 10-03-13, 03:37 PM

Gasquet 2-1 @ 4.47 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

**fitguy67** · 10-03-13, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Dog-poo-love 1:st @ 4.33 – 8 units (Bet365)

good one, HC (i put some hyphens in for those that missed it the first time)

Hope it catches on...Dogpoo a more helpful nick than Dolgo (and a better guide to how he tends to play when u back him)...explaining why some tennis fans refer to him as "BrownHandle"

**alpinepetey** · 10-04-13, 12:27 AM

Damnnnn Fognini just trucked Rafa 6-2 in the first. Nice hit Hardcoar!!

**Seto** · 10-04-13, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Fognini 1:st @ 8.5 – 6 units (Bet365)

good stuff there

**Hardcoar** · 10-04-13, 01:01 AM

Lucky lucky...

**Hardcoar** · 10-04-13, 01:02 AM

Fognini/Seppi @ 3.25 – 8 units (Bet365)

**apeterlives** · 10-04-13, 01:08 AM

Great call on Fognini 1st--I didn't have the balls for that

**alpinepetey** · 10-04-13, 03:57 AM

Dog Poo pulls out the first set win. Another big underdog first set winner for Hardcoar. Very nicely done.

**fitguy67** · 10-04-13, 04:06 AM

alpinepetey took the words right off my keyboard...

the run of net-positive variance (aka. "lucky lucky") continues

**BigPage25** · 10-04-13, 04:12 AM

Hardcore so you feel Wozniaki is really going to beat serena today???

**Hardcoar** · 10-04-13, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by BigPage25

Hardcore so you feel Wozniaki is really going to beat serena today???

Of course not. Only a retard would feel that.

**Bet10Heinekens** · 10-04-13, 07:57 AM

Hardcoar finally hitting the dartboard with these dogs

**Hardcoar** · 10-04-13, 08:03 AM

Dushevina/Parra-Santonja 1:st @ 3.5 – 6 units (Bet365)

**Hardcoar** · 10-04-13, 09:09 AM

Of course... 2:nd was the bet of the century. It's so obvious!

**Hardcoar** · 10-04-13, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Dodig 1:st @ 1.67 – 10 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Fognini 1:st @ 8.5 – 6 units (Bet365)

KEXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Huta-Galung/Sijsling 1:st @ 3 – 10 units (Bet365)

KEXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Dogpoolove 1:st @ 4.33 – 8 units (Bet365)

KEXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Wozniacki @ 6.5 – 6 units (William Hill)
Wozniacki 2-0 @ 13 – 4 units (William Hill)

FUXX
FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Wozniacki +5.5 @ 2.1 – 8 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Radwanska -4 @ 2.89 – 6 units (Pinnacle)
Radwanska -2.5 @ 2.09 – 8 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX
KEXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Jankovic -4.5 @ 3.07 – 8 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Isner 2-1 @ 5.72 – 6 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Gasquet 2-1 @ 4.47 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Dushevina/Parra-Santonja 1:st @ 3.5 – 6 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Total hits: 227
Total mishits: 266
Total stake: 3576u
Total yield: +310.042u
ROI: +8.67 % (rounded)

Pending:

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Fognini/Seppi @ 3.25 – 8 units (Bet365)