THREADS! MOAR THREADS! My Second Thread <3 – ATP and WTA picks

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  • Hardcoar
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-17-13
    • 15606

    #1
    THREADS! MOAR THREADS! My Second Thread <3 – ATP and WTA picks
    Creating a new thread with a slightly different format for several overall improvements, mostly in terms of functionality. Initial (current) results:

    22-50
    -21,28 units


    Please see the following thread for details: http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-bet...wta-picks.html

    Mandatory wall of text:

    I figure I should try contributing something. At any rate it will be an interesting experiment.

    My thread, whose bets will be based on my perception of odds value, will feature mainly dogs, predominently match lines and some set betting. It will not include all bets I make but will only include bets I place myself. There will be no live bets posted and for obvious reasons only bets posted in this thread will count towards its progress.

    Unit measurement will be in standard 1-10 format for understandability, but will only apply even numbers.

    Bookmakers used: Pinnacle Sports, Bet 365, Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, Centerbet, Nordic Bet.

    No 'crazy American' lines format. You'll just have to adjust to the outside world for once and learn the logical nature of decimal odds.

    Simply put though, decimal odds specify total payout (stakes + winnings). Think of the decimal as a multiplier for your stakes:

    Betting one unit at odds of 3.0 means the total payout is three times the initial stake (1 unit stake + 2 units profit), which would of course equal +200 in 'crazy American' odds. Betting one unit at odds of 1.5 means the total payout is one and a half time the initial stake (1 unit stake + .5 units profit) which would of course equal -200 in 'crazy American' odds. This causes evens to occur at odds of 2.0, which should (?) of course equal +-100 in 'crazy American' odds.

    Please feel truly free to criticize and discuss! "Ask... and learn!", Or teach me a thing or two!

    Thanks for reading!
  • Hardcoar
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-17-13
    • 15606

    #2
    Bellucci over Seppi @ 3.11 – 4 units
    Comment
    • CaptainOmar111
      SBR MVP
      • 02-11-13
      • 2024

      #3
      Good Luck man , I hope you stop gambling on high odds and start real system to earn good profit !!! also what do you think about Andy Murray game tonight ??? Thanks
      Comment
      • Hardcoar
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-17-13
        • 15606

        #4
        I don't intend to change my strategy. I gamble wherever I believe I've found value. Judging my profit after roughly a week shows a poor understanding of mathematics, gambling, or both. Please show some patience.

        I think there's some value in @ 8 on Dimitrov.
        Comment
        • mercur
          SBR Rookie
          • 03-24-13
          • 45

          #5
          i can't see dimitrov winning against murray
          Comment
          • Hardcoar
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-17-13
            • 15606

            #6
            Assuming good form (as always), I think he quite well could, actually.
            Comment
            • Hardcoar
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-17-13
              • 15606

              #7
              Cornet 1:st set over Vinci @ 3.62 – 4 units
              Comment
              • Hardcoar
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-17-13
                • 15606

                #8
                Haas 1:st set over Djokovic @ 9 – 4 units

                Haas looked amazing against Dolgopolov and stands a fair chance of taking a set. At these odds it's a great bet, in my opinion.
                Comment
                • Hardcoar
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-17-13
                  • 15606

                  #9
                  Li Na 1:st set over Williams @ 3.4 – 2 units

                  Despite being challenged yesterday by talented Muguruza the kid, Li Na has looked great in her Miami matches, as well as in the Oceanian string of tournaments. She has a fair chance to win, but I find more value in these odds than the match line, especially taking into consideration Serena's FK-up in the first half of the match against Cibulkova, something I've seen happen before despite Serena usually coming back to win in parts of the match.
                  Comment
                  • Hardcoar
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-17-13
                    • 15606

                    #10
                    Ramos over Melzer @ 2 – 4 units
                    Ramos 1:st set @ 1.99 – 8 units


                    Ramos has been in great shape lately, not least here in Miami. He's more athletic than Melzer who's been busy playing plenty of up-and-down three setters in the last few matches, and should have an edge with his decent serve and solid baseline shots.

                    Melzer has been in a slump this year and despite his win in Houston in an overall tired tournament he hasn't been very impressive at all recently. His victory over Kamke was the result of a mugathlon where neither player seemed to perform well, and is in my mind more to be attributed to Kamke than Melzer. He also has a tendency to lose 1:st and at these odds I find great value in that bet.
                    Comment
                    • Hardcoar
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-17-13
                      • 15606

                      #11
                      Tipsarevic over Simon @ 2.2 – 8 units
                      Comment
                      • Hardcoar
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-17-13
                        • 15606

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Hardcoar
                        Bellucci over Seppi @ 3.11 – 4 units
                        FUXX
                        Originally posted by Hardcoar
                        Cornet 1:st set over Vinci @ 3.62 – 4 units
                        KEXX
                        Originally posted by Hardcoar
                        Haas 1:st set over Djokovic @ 9 – 4 units
                        KEXX
                        Originally posted by Hardcoar
                        Li Na 1:st set over Williams @ 3.4 – 2 units
                        FUXX
                        Originally posted by Hardcoar
                        Ramos over Melzer @ 2 – 4 units
                        Ramos 1:st set @ 1.99 – 8 units
                        FUXX
                        KEXX
                        Originally posted by Hardcoar
                        Tipsarevic over Simon @ 2.2 – 8 units
                        FUXX

                        Total hits: 25
                        Total mishits: 54
                        Total yield: +11,12 units
                        Comment
                        • Hardcoar
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-17-13
                          • 15606

                          #13
                          Simon over Haas @ 2.75 – 10 units

                          You cannot be serious. You cannot!

                          Absolutely ridiculous odds! No further comments.
                          Comment
                          • lucasdawg
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-19-13
                            • 3399

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Hardcoar
                            Simon over Haas @ 2.75 – 10 units

                            You cannot be serious. You cannot!

                            Absolutely ridiculous odds! No further comments.
                            youre thinking simon? why is this? he dropped the first set with tips? haas was overall pretty good against djokovic even if he wasnt 100%
                            Comment
                            • Hardcoar
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 02-17-13
                              • 15606

                              #15
                              I'm thinking Simon because I think his chances of winning are about 50 %, which is not reflected by the odds at all.
                              Comment
                              • lucasdawg
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-19-13
                                • 3399

                                #16
                                i watched haas play today and he has the potential to frustrate simon, if that happens simon makes too many unforced errors. haas mixes his play up also which i find will be difficult for simon.
                                Comment
                                • Hardcoar
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 02-17-13
                                  • 15606

                                  #17
                                  I agree. He has the potential to frustrate Simon, and cause UEs. I also find that Simon has the potential to win this match. I estimate his chances to about 50 %, and these odds are absolutely retarded.

                                  INB4 market shift...
                                  Comment
                                  • jinxpro13
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-31-12
                                    • 1434

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                    I agree. He has the potential to frustrate Simon, and cause UEs. I also find that Simon has the potential to win this match. I estimate his chances to about 50 %, and these odds are absolutely retarded.

                                    INB4 market shift...
                                    tend to agree with the odds.. match is more of a coin toss than the odds reflect.. still think Haas takes it but Im passing on that match. GL
                                    Comment
                                    • Hardcoar
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 02-17-13
                                      • 15606

                                      #19
                                      Gasquet 1:st set over Berdych @ 2.79 – 4 units
                                      Comment
                                      • lucasdawg
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-19-13
                                        • 3399

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                        Gasquet 1:st set over Berdych @ 2.79 – 4 units
                                        good call, sigh gasquet looks hot.
                                        Comment
                                        • Hardcoar
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 02-17-13
                                          • 15606

                                          #21
                                          Haas 1:st set over Ferrer @ 2.6 – 6 units

                                          Haas was absolutely outstanding against Djokobo and Simon in particular. Ferrer was less than convincing against Melzer, until the end of 2:nd. All the while, I opine Haas is the likeliest to outplay Ferrer early in the match, and even if he does win 1:st Ferrer could easily come back to win the match.
                                          Comment
                                          • Hardcoar
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-17-13
                                            • 15606

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by hardcoar
                                            Simon over Haas @ 2.75 – 10 units
                                            FUXX
                                            Originally posted by hardcoar
                                            Gasquet 1:st set over Berdych @ 2.79 – 4 units
                                            KEXX
                                            Originally posted by hardcoar
                                            Haas 1:st set over Ferrer @ 2.6 – 6 units
                                            KEXX

                                            Total hits: 27
                                            Total mishits: 55
                                            Total units staked: 450
                                            Total yield: +17.88 units
                                            ROI: +3,973 %
                                            Comment
                                            • Hardcoar
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 02-17-13
                                              • 15606

                                              #23
                                              By the way, I just realized I need to include ROI in my result statistics. Currently all one can tell is that I'm in the green overall. Theoretically, I could have staked 10 000 units and only be +0.1788 % up, however.

                                              I also realize this will take adding some shit up, which takes some time, so bear with me meanwhile please.
                                              Comment
                                              • CaptainOmar111
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-11-13
                                                • 2024

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                I think he wanted to back her. I love how he's constantly asking for help and opinions saying "I'm new here", then being a total dick to anyone who answers his request.
                                                Who are you to think , love ??? LOL Again , Iam free to post threads as I like , not as fuckkkkin bitch like you say to me what I should do !!!!

                                                you love hurting fuckkkin bitch , believe me !!! why are you posting here , ass !!! ??? Iam totally free to ask for help and fuckkkin losers like you should not post if , you love insult others without any reason !!! go to your mom because she wanted the dick you are talking about !!! stay away from me because you are totally kid !!! and for the last time : I Will fuckkkk you in your ass if you did not stop your mother system with me !!! LOL
                                                Comment
                                                • Hardcoar
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 02-17-13
                                                  • 15606

                                                  #25
                                                  OK.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • CaptainOmar111
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-11-13
                                                    • 2024

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                    By the way, I just realized I need to include ROI in my result statistics. Currently all one can tell is that I'm in the green overall. Theoretically, I could have staked 10 000 units and only be +0.1788 % up, however.

                                                    I also realize this will take adding some shit up, which takes some time, so bear with me meanwhile please.
                                                    Good Job , And Good Luck
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Hardcoar
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 02-17-13
                                                      • 15606

                                                      #27
                                                      Ah tanks budy u2.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hardcoar
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 02-17-13
                                                        • 15606

                                                        #28
                                                        ROI has now been added to statistics. Please see post #22 above.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Hardcoar
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 02-17-13
                                                          • 15606

                                                          #29
                                                          Murray–Ferrer: 1:st set Tie break @ 5.75 – 4 units

                                                          With Sportingbet, I should add this time.

                                                          Not my usual bet, but certainly a fun one.

                                                          Neither player has been very consistent and reliable on service lately. Both players have generally been the weakest in 1:st set throughout the week. If a tie break does occur, it it the likeliest to do so in 1:st, and the odds are certainly higher than fair value to me.

                                                          On a side note, I think Ferrer has a great shot at winning the match if he manages to take it to a third, because he's been simply outstanding in the later stages of the past few matches.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • CaptainOmar111
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-11-13
                                                            • 2024

                                                            #30
                                                            You asked me a question in another thread . I think you was laughing but here you are the reply LOL

                                                            Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                            Just curious as to how many bets you've settled using your system so far. Could you tell us please?
                                                            Honestly , I placed only 11 bets that helped me to double my money 330% through 1 month and few days !!!

                                                            But I placed those bets in 11
                                                            different
                                                            days only !!!

                                                            And took a rest in 20 days or more for different reasons !!!


                                                            so the final record must be ( %330 through 11 days )

                                                            And ( started with $10 , I have now $33 ) !!! my bets in Tennis , Soccer , but at the end , my record is +%330 profit because I have few bucks !!!

                                                            If I have few thousands or hundreds such as many players here , I could make good amount !!!

                                                            And If I started with $1000 ( not $10 ) , I should have now $3300
                                                            !!!


                                                            All what I need now is to build my bankroll to become $500 , If I made $500 Iam sure My life in sports betting will be changed %100 and I will be more professional ... Good Luck and Thanks For Question LOL
                                                            Remember !!!!! " Small Profit Better Than Loss " !!!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Hardcoar
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 02-17-13
                                                              • 15606

                                                              #31
                                                              I wasn't laughing, I just wanted to know how many wagers you have placed so far.

                                                              Thanks!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • CaptainOmar111
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-11-13
                                                                • 2024

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                                I wasn't laughing, I just wanted to know how many wagers you have placed so far.

                                                                Thanks!
                                                                Ok Man , They are all 11 ( 9 tennis , 2 soccer )
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Hardcoar
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 02-17-13
                                                                  • 15606

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Townsend over Petkovic @ 8 – 4 units
                                                                  1:st set @ 5.5 – 4 units


                                                                  I feel like these courts should be right up fatty's alley, and Petkobitch is hardly trustworthy as of late. Worth a shot to be sure!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • CaptainOmar111
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-11-13
                                                                    • 2024

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                                    Townsend over Petkovic @ 8 – 4 units
                                                                    1:st set @ 5.5 – 4 units


                                                                    I feel like these courts should be right up fatty's alley, and Petkobitch is hardly trustworthy as of late. Worth a shot to be sure!
                                                                    I saw Townsend 1 time while I bet on Ivanovic to beat her in Indian Wells 2013 first rounds !! she was playing well . that is why I did not pick Pekkovic tonight !!! but TownSand lost 6-3 , 6-0 !!! very bad
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Hardcoar
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 02-17-13
                                                                      • 15606

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Oudin @ 7 – 6 units
                                                                      Comment
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