ATP: Shanghai Masters

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  • wannabet
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-27-08
    • 359

    #71
    Simon head-head was -259
    Simon 2-0 was -105
    Simon 2-1 was +300


    1 unit +300 = 3.0U
    3.16 unit -105= 3.0U
    risked 4.16U total

    4.16U -259= 1.62U

    Obviously I won the -105, but I had the +300 for fewer units as insurance. the big cushion must be based on possible retirements. I didn't bet federer/murray, but you could have worked it out similarly, but not just risking 1 unit on everything, risking to win the same number of units. could be a good strategy on a heavy favorite to cut the line, but if stepanek had retired, then maybe I lose everything, but maybe I get no action.
    Comment
    • HeeeHAWWWW
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 06-13-08
      • 5487

      #72
      Folks - if you haven't seen it, look at the highlights for a point in the 2nd set tiebreak. Insane level of quality.

      What a match.
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #73
        So I guess Federer greatly exagerrated his sickness or had a miracle cure in a day.
        Comment
        • HeeeHAWWWW
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 06-13-08
          • 5487

          #74
          The stomach thing doesn't seem a problem, he has plenty energy. He definitely had a problem with the back at the start of the third though, was hobbling around and had several injury timeouts. He's run that off though, and is now playing brilliantly.

          The question for me: if he wins, will he be able to play tomorrow? When the adrenaline wears off he could be very sore indeed, and might actually have done some real damage here.
          Comment
          • Netprofit
            SBR MVP
            • 03-25-08
            • 3538

            #75
            what a classic
            unbelievable tennis
            Comment
            • Netprofit
              SBR MVP
              • 03-25-08
              • 3538

              #76
              3 hours and 7 match points already and still playing
              Comment
              • Netprofit
                SBR MVP
                • 03-25-08
                • 3538

                #77
                The King lost
                Changing of the guards
                But he deserves all the respect
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #78
                  Yes suh! Another winner for us boys!

                  No doubt that Andy Murray challenges Rafa for #1 in 2009 I think. Should be a great year for men's tennis to see how Nadal responds to being the hunted from the get-go and how Federer responds to being the hunter now along with up and comers like Murray, Del Potro & Simon. And that dunce ass Djokovic who I hope sucks major wang. Man, I can't wait for the Australian Open!

                  So I believe the semis are set as:

                  Djokovic vs. Simon
                  Murray vs. Davydenko

                  2 quality match-ups. Probably find a price to your liking once they're set.
                  Comment
                  • HeeeHAWWWW
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 06-13-08
                    • 5487

                    #79
                    New title odds:

                    Murray +140
                    Djoko +200
                    Fixer +620
                    Simon +750


                    Simon looks the value there, big time. With an extra day's rest Davydenko could quite possibly knock out Murray tomorrow (especially if he has a big adrenaline comedown after today). Simon I think will beat Djokovic, and against Davy he's favourite too imo.

                    Why is nobody giving Simon the respect he deserves? Beat Federer twice recently, finalist in Madrid beating Nadal on his home turf.
                    Comment
                    • meganie
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-09-08
                      • 591

                      #80
                      Gaah, the Bjorkman/Ullyett match showed me, why I should just stick with singles.

                      I really feel sorry for Fed, he fighted back several times and had obviously injury issues, but still fighted for every point. What happened in the late 3rd set? I left when Murray was down 3-4 and deuce at Fed's serve.

                      @HeeeHAWWWW
                      Did you play the Simon future yesterday? Odds now nearly halfed.
                      Concerning respect for Simon, I think it's on one hand the way he plays and one the other the way he won his recent matches (down against Nadal, Karlovic,...). He hardly had any "easy" matches, where he just dominated his opponent.
                      Comment
                      • EaglesPhan36
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-06-06
                        • 71662

                        #81
                        Simon gets no respect because his game isn't big in any one aspect. He basically challenges players to beat themselves. That works well against alot of these guys on tour now. Have to like Simon against Djokovic as he beat the Serb way back in the 1st part of 2008 when Djokovic was actually in-form and Simon was a nobody. It was in France, but still a Simon win none-the-less. Simon at + money in that one is a must play in my opinion. Interested to see where the line comes out. I'm guessing Djokovic is still going to be a -170 to 200 or so favorite.
                        Comment
                        • meganie
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 09-09-08
                          • 591

                          #82
                          Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                          Simon gets no respect because his game isn't big in any one aspect. He basically challenges players to beat themselves. That works well against alot of these guys on tour now. Have to like Simon against Djokovic as he beat the Serb way back in the 1st part of 2008 when Djokovic was actually in-form and Simon was a nobody. It was in France, but still a Simon win none-the-less. Simon at + money in that one is a must play in my opinion. Interested to see where the line comes out. I'm guessing Djokovic is still going to be a -170 to 200 or so favorite.
                          Well that's basically what I wanted to say, you just said it better.

                          I'm having my two futures play each other, which is good, because I get at least one in, but bad because I have to trash one.

                          After today's exhausting match I'm leaning towards Davydenko. Just hoping, he doesn't choke as did against Djokovic.
                          Comment
                          • HeeeHAWWWW
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 06-13-08
                            • 5487

                            #83
                            Originally posted by meganie
                            @HeeeHAWWWW
                            Did you play the Simon future yesterday?

                            Yes, thanks for that one :-) Had about $200 or so on it, at +1800 if i remember right. I'll hang onto it for the next match, given how poor Djoko has been recently. For the final if it's Murray I'll lay it off (do you USians say "middle"?) at betfair, if it's Fixer I'll cash in a little but expect him to win the title.
                            Comment
                            • meganie
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 09-09-08
                              • 591

                              #84
                              Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW
                              Yes, thanks for that one :-) Had about $200 or so on it, at +1800 if i remember right. I'll hang onto it for the next match, given how poor Djoko has been recently. For the final if it's Murray I'll lay it off (do you USians say "middle"?) at betfair, if it's Fixer I'll cash in a little but expect him to win the title.
                              Since I'm not an "USian" , I don't know, but I just say "lay". Man, if that one hits for you, you made 3600 out of 200. Now THAT'S profit.
                              Comment
                              • meganie
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 09-09-08
                                • 591

                                #85
                                Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                Man, I can't wait for the Australian Open!
                                Me, too. I'm heading into my first full season of capping tennis.

                                From your experience, is it wise to cap the first tournaments or shall one wait till Melbourne? Thanks for answering.
                                Comment
                                • meganie
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 09-09-08
                                  • 591

                                  #86
                                  Originally posted by wannabet
                                  Simon head-head was -259
                                  Simon 2-0 was -105
                                  Simon 2-1 was +300


                                  1 unit +300 = 3.0U
                                  3.16 unit -105= 3.0U
                                  risked 4.16U total

                                  4.16U -259= 1.62U

                                  Obviously I won the -105, but I had the +300 for fewer units as insurance. the big cushion must be based on possible retirements. I didn't bet federer/murray, but you could have worked it out similarly, but not just risking 1 unit on everything, risking to win the same number of units. could be a good strategy on a heavy favorite to cut the line, but if stepanek had retired, then maybe I lose everything, but maybe I get no action.
                                  You're mixing something up.
                                  If Simon wins 2-0:
                                  3U profit
                                  1U loss
                                  => 2U profit

                                  If Simon wins 2-1:
                                  3U profit
                                  3.16U loss
                                  => 0.16 loss

                                  Look at it percentage wise:
                                  +300 = 25%
                                  -105 = 51%
                                  => 76% win probability
                                  That's -317 in odds.

                                  So you get actually worse odds, if you play Simon in sets.
                                  Comment
                                  • HeeeHAWWWW
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 06-13-08
                                    • 5487

                                    #87
                                    One advantage of set betting is you can often get more wildly out of line prices in that market than the straight match betting (a bit like correct score soccer betting). You need a lot of books to manage this though, and when you are trying to cover multiple outcomes a lot of the value disappears imo. Betfair is great for this though, if you get in early you can queue and get silly prices.

                                    Another point: imo the real value from set betting comes when you see a disconnect between match prices, and the standard distribution of setbetting outcomes. Some players have the pschology or playing style that result in certain scorelines being distinctly more probable than others: eg Simon and all those tiebreak 2-1 victories, Nadal never losing in 5, weak servers rarely winning a best-of-5 in straights etc. This allows you greater value than straight picks of one player to win - you instead take the disproprtionately likely outcome (or two).



                                    re Aus Open: I just went for Murray to win, £500 at +500. His price is dropping all over the place though, he really should be narrow 2nd favourite, +350 at most imo (given Nadal is ridiculously overrated at an event he always bombs at). Murray made most of the improvements in his game last year in the offseason, especially his fitness and the first serve - expect him to come back this time with a much improved second serve, the only remaining weakness in his game. Federer was all over that today, and if that aspect improves he's going to be near unbeatable on form, given his returning ability allows him to break so often.
                                    Comment
                                    • wannabet
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 10-27-08
                                      • 359

                                      #88
                                      okay, now I get why it looked too good to be true, because I lose the stake that I bet in the first place. Thanks for pointing that one out to me. All I could think of was I would lose on retiring. That was a major betting mistake! I have to be more careful in the future.

                                      Well, I'm picking djokovic to go all the way. I think he is due, would definitely like to see him and murray in the finals, but I hope that doesn't screw up all your guys bets... Good luck.
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #89
                                        First Simon line I see is at Pinnacle ... +205. If it's anywhere near that at my book, that's an automatic play.

                                        Davydenko at +195 against Murray.
                                        Comment
                                        • wannabet
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 10-27-08
                                          • 359

                                          #90
                                          Also, I'm pretty sure eaglesphan already explained the exact same thing, but I didn't pick up on it with the first example, so thanks. I probably would have picked up on it when I started losing based on a faulty strategy anyhow.Also noticed that 2 sets is standard for tennis betting, but there aren't very many rules I need to pick up, just got to keep the arithmetic straight I guess.
                                          Comment
                                          • HeeeHAWWWW
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 06-13-08
                                            • 5487

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by wannabet
                                            Also noticed that 2 sets is standard for tennis betting, .....
                                            Match competed for action is by far the most common rule nowadays. See my SBR blog page thingy, I just put the list of books on there.
                                            Last edited by HeeeHAWWWW; 11-14-08, 03:44 PM.
                                            Comment
                                            • wannabet
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 10-27-08
                                              • 359

                                              #92
                                              Thanks HeeHawww, glad you pointed that out. I thought it was supposed to be two sets, but that link worked out to prove me wrong. I guess it matters less when I can't win with the sets betting, but you are definitely correct and I find that very helpful.
                                              Comment
                                              • HeeeHAWWWW
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 06-13-08
                                                • 5487

                                                #93
                                                Darn, Simon won the first set than had an injury. Oh well.


                                                Murray looks exhausted against Davydenko here, who has an extra day's rest.
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #94
                                                  Did you watch the match (Simon) - just curious how much the injury hampered him. Because if it did and he still almost pulled it out, gotta think heavy about Davydenko. Luckily I actually made a couple bucks as I back doored my Simon bet (+220) with a Djokovic in 3 (+250). I'll probably take Davydenko just for spite.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • HeeeHAWWWW
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 06-13-08
                                                    • 5487

                                                    #95
                                                    I only saw the very end of it, sorry. Djokovic almost blew it at the end, he looked like he was injured.

                                                    A lot of people are thinking about Davy though, he's been very good. Only question for me was that chokefest in their group match metting - not sure what to make of that. On one hand he completely outplayed Djoko for almost the entire match, and that 6-0 was incredible. The way he lost the other two sets was embarrassing though.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • meganie
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 09-09-08
                                                      • 591

                                                      #96
                                                      If Djokovic wins the final, I'm gonna throw up.

                                                      Nestor/Zimonjic at + odds is a gift imo. They should be favored by -150 or so, if you just go with the performance.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #97
                                                        Well no play for me on Sunday. I do believe Davydenko is the play, but the price isn't really that great. Hope you guys keep visiting the tennis forums here in the downtime for the sport. Can't wait for Australia!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • meganie
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 09-09-08
                                                          • 591

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by meganie
                                                          If Djokovic wins the final, I'm gonna throw up.
                                                          Done.

                                                          Originally posted by meganie
                                                          Nestor/Zimonjic at + odds is a gift imo. They should be favored by -150 or so, if you just go with the performance.
                                                          At least I got some of my futures' money with the doubles final back.

                                                          Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                          Well no play for me on Sunday. I do believe Davydenko is the play, but the price isn't really that great. Hope you guys keep visiting the tennis forums here in the downtime for the sport. Can't wait for Australia!
                                                          Yeah, see ya in the new year.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • HeeeHAWWWW
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 06-13-08
                                                            • 5487

                                                            #99
                                                            Meh. Looking at the way Davydenko played today, Gilles Simon would have probably beaten him. Now that's frustrating :-)
                                                            Comment
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