Fairlay's New Commission Structure

**danshan11** · 03-14-19, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by bookie

@danshan11...are you beating Pinnacle's prices by betting at Fairlay? I just so rarely have seen a better line that I don't see the appeal.

Also, have you had any experience laying there? Or anybody, if you offered a $1500 at +100 ten minutes to tipoff on a game that was painted what are the chances someone would take it?

Fairlay is usually a cent or so better on average than pinnacle and if you suck up the junk between the market maker and pinnacles price you can save a few cents more but very low limits.
example Pinnacle has -105 fairlay will probably have a 2500mbtc at -104.4 and it will have 1 or 2 little matches of -102 40mbtc and
-103.3 20mbtc so you would get those 2 small matches and the rest would be at -104.4

lots of people put the 1 cent better lines on games they like and lots of times forget about them and you can get some at a huge discount but they are usually at very low limits.

fairlay uses an api to adjust when pinnacle adjusts so very rarely any high limit stale lines

it would be a waste of time to offer a few cents better for a high limit because nobody bets there and 99 out of 100 would just sit and not be filled.

**danshan11** · 03-14-19, 11:08 AM

fairlay is great because you do get better prices and good limits, no risk of limiting or banning, like on NBA BOL reduced me to 250 on 1000 games and has me at 2000 on high limit games, that is why I stopped using them for NBA.
btc withdraws instant and better pricing, cant go wrong

**bookie** · 03-14-19, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

fairlay is great because you do get better prices and good limits, no risk of limiting or banning, like on NBA BOL reduced me to 250 on 1000 games and has me at 2000 on high limit games, that is why I stopped using them for NBA.
btc withdraws instant and better pricing, cant go wrong

Thanks for sharing your experience.

**ping-pong-pop** · 03-15-19, 04:24 AM

hi all, new here. Good thread this, answered a lot of Qs I had about FairLay.
I've been checking out the BTC exchange betting options and was told about FairLay, signed up recently and had a look around. UI is absolutely shocking, but the most disappointing thing is that it doesn't seem to function as an exchange... sure, the basic product is (kind of) an exchange, but the action appears to be 100% sportsbook... i.e. one market maker. And this suspicion confirmed by others with more experience. Is there anyone here who tries to market make, or is that useless given existing MM Pinnacle spreads are so tight?

**littlekona** · 03-15-19, 05:18 AM

Originally posted by ping-pong-pop

hi all, new here. Good thread this, answered a lot of Qs I had about FairLay.
I've been checking out the BTC exchange betting options and was told about FairLay, signed up recently and had a look around. UI is absolutely shocking, but the most disappointing thing is that it doesn't seem to function as an exchange... sure, the basic product is (kind of) an exchange, but the action appears to be 100% sportsbook... i.e. one market maker. And this suspicion confirmed by others with more experience. Is there anyone here who tries to market make, or is that useless given existing MM Pinnacle spreads are so tight?

If you set as maker/taker you can ask for any price you like...i do it all the time esp in horses..
Exchange or more sportsbook like what does it matter? The whole point of using fairly is pinny like prices without fear of being limited for usa peeps who like btc exclusive w instant payouts..

**ping-pong-pop** · 03-15-19, 05:29 AM

Originally posted by littlekona

If you set as maker/taker you can ask for any price you like...i do it all the time esp in horses..
Exchange or more sportsbook like what does it matter? The whole point of using fairly is pinny like prices without fear of being limited for usa peeps who like btc exclusive w instant payouts..

Thank for reply! I know you can ask for any price you like.
But wondered if anyone here had tried consistently laying across entire markets, i.e. competing with the one big MM.
Also, it doesnt matter if I get to choose my back price if no one is laying except the MM at static prices. If there's no liquidity, i am a million to get what I want, no matter how close to the spread i put my offer... or?

Exchange/sportsbook doesn't matter if you are looking for pinny prices with BTC from usa, you're right.
But there are so many new ways to speculate and profit in a liquid exchange than simple sportsbook style backing. Which is what I am looking for (with BTC) but not finding.

**littlekona** · 03-15-19, 06:38 AM

Originally posted by ping-pong-pop

Thank for reply! I know you can ask for any price you like.
But wondered if anyone here had tried consistently laying across entire markets, i.e. competing with the one big MM.
Also, it doesnt matter if I get to choose my back price if no one is laying except the MM at static prices. If there's no liquidity, i am a million to get what I want, no matter how close to the spread i put my offer... or?

Exchange/sportsbook doesn't matter if you are looking for pinny prices with BTC from usa, you're right.
But there are so many new ways to speculate and profit in a liquid exchange than simple sportsbook style backing. Which is what I am looking for (with BTC) but not finding.

@danshan11 maybe can answer as he has been through the API extensively

**danshan11** · 03-15-19, 08:22 AM

Useless to try and be pinnercle pun intended. Market making just does not have enough volume and the reality of price change speed. Would require some serious hatdware and software and it would take 50 years to recoup and thats if you dont get sharped to death. Volume is really low

**danshan11** · 03-15-19, 08:25 AM

The problem is if you say -200 and run on .01 secs you will be filling pinny orders all day on tons of markets and at pinny prices, that is not good

**danshan11** · 03-15-19, 08:49 AM

example
say the market price currently is
bid (green) -200
ask (red) +180
you place a mark at -199 (green) and +181 (red)
and if the price has a jump of a few cents, you will force fill the other side and you will then have a matched order at pinnacle price in a bad way. if you have open orders across a big chunk of the market, this happens all day and you will end up with tons of matched orders at regular prices with no edge. I am not sure I am explaining this correctly but yeah it does not work to market maker as a competitor

I created an arb maker using the api and it does work but the volume is so low, you end up picking up a ton of small orders and the profit margin is micro.

**ping-pong-pop** · 03-16-19, 07:18 AM

hi danshan, thanks for replies.
I get that it's tough to market-make in competition with Pinnacle.
But comparing to Pinnacle prices to Betfair, Betfair's % are better in the markets I checked last night. And those Betfair market makers are paying 2% minimum in commission, plus premium rate (probably) so there is clearly plenty of room to be competitive with Pinnacle given a mature exchange ecosystem. The issue is getting to "mature" i guess... typical chicken and egg issue with any exchange.
I do think the UX generally on Fairlay makes it a million to one to build an exchange ecosystem. Anyway, I will dig around a bit more in coming weeks. Thanks again for sharing your thoughts.

**danshan11** · 03-16-19, 10:18 AM

its not tough to be competitive, that is not the issue, you got to understand how exchanges work.
if you place a marker and are a millisecond behind the current market maker or a millisecond ahead of the current market maker, you will fill tons of orders THAT YOU DONT WANT.

Central Arkansas/TexasAM was 146 ML so you would have a marker up at 147 say
now at 17:54:03 the line jumped to 177 and if you are a millisecond behind or ahead your marker will be filled at 147 and you now have a bet at 147 first not good because at 147 you are paying the juice and second not

good because the new price is 177

so now you are holding a +147 ticket on a game that is currently at +177 and if you got markers all over as a market maker, you will get torched all day long exactly like this over and over. it is darn near impossible to move at the exact moment the current market maker does.

this makes market making NOT PROFITABLE, not to mention getting sharp banged without any way to see who is taking your orders!

**ping-pong-pop** · 03-16-19, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

this makes market making NOT PROFITABLE

OK... begs the questions though:
- who IS market making on e.g. Betfair?
- how come they can keep on doing it if there's no money to be made?

**danshan11** · 03-16-19, 01:13 PM

there is money to be made of course, but you got to resolve the force bet issue with market makers updating at the same time, the exchange format causes a forced matched order. the only way around this is to create your own markets and use a pinnacle api to update but believe me it is not simple, if it skips a beat or goes down for even a few seconds you are dead and buried in forced bets. Its not as simple as just posting markets and counting the money. you also will get sharped up big time, there are guys laying 1000-2000 mbtc per game those are not amateurs. books dont limit and ban people cause they dont like them, they do it for a darn good reason, winners exist not many but they do exist and lets dont even start to talk about bankroll and honestly fairlay does not have enough bet volume and bet size overall to make enough to be worth it. Fairlay is for a guy to save a few cents on games they would bet anyway. I also am fearful of building a huge functioning server at a crazy cost and the next day fairlay requires aml/kyc or changes the format even slightly and you are back to the drawing boards

**danshan11** · 03-16-19, 01:15 PM

I am talking specifically fairlay, I do not know anything about betfair or matchbook. I think the fees are too high, i think the exchange eats any margin you would make market making.

**ping-pong-pop** · 03-16-19, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

and honestly fairlay does not have enough bet volume and bet size overall to make enough to be worth it. Fairlay is for a guy to save a few cents on games they would bet anyway. I also am fearful of building a huge functioning server at a crazy cost and the next day fairlay requires aml/kyc or changes the format even slightly and you are back to the drawing boards

These are very good points. Fairlay simply isn't going to cut it as things stand.

**danshan11** · 03-16-19, 02:07 PM

if someone can give me a solve for the force plays, I would pay for it because that would make it at the minimum fun to do it!

**ping-pong-pop** · 03-16-19, 03:17 PM

Sorry, could you just define "force play"? It isn't a phrase I've heard before.
(Assume it means when your unmatched bet gets matched...?)

**danshan11** · 03-16-19, 05:13 PM

its the exact scenario I stated above, where you end up with a negative ticket!

**danshan11** · 03-19-19, 09:55 PM

wow this looks fishy as hell and proves the number of bets made at fairlay dont change any books numbers
they bet over 100k on this 1st half bet all on Sacramento on the 1st half Kings

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-187/

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-186/

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-192/

and the pinnacle price never moved

**eaglesfan371** · 03-19-19, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

wow this looks fishy as hell and proves the number of bets made at fairlay dont change any books numbers
they bet over 100k on this 1st half bet all on Sacramento on the 1st half Kings

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-187/

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-186/

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-192/

and the pinnacle price never moved

No, the lines do move especially in tennis. If you max bet, I assure you, with 100% certainty, the line moves.

That account could be flagged as a major loser but I will agree that is strange that market did not change much. The odds got slightly worse each time, a couple cents, but not much.

That's really funny you posted that though. At 10:01pm EST I went looking for first half Kings spread. It was off the board.

So I took full game spread, figured I was only one on that game as both are my bets

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-167

**raiders72001** · 03-19-19, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

wow this looks fishy as hell and proves the number of bets made at fairlay dont change any books numbers
they bet over 100k on this 1st half bet all on Sacramento on the 1st half Kings

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-187/

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-186/

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-192/

and the pinnacle price never moved

There's more than 1 market maker. The lines 2.5 and 3 were at Fairlay but never showed at Pinny.

Maybe one market maker's bets matched move Pinny's line and another doesn't. I'm not sure.

**danshan11** · 03-19-19, 11:49 PM

Pinny had 2.5 and 3

**raiders72001** · 03-20-19, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

Pinny had 2.5 and 3

Then the bets did move the line? I thought you posted the line didn't move.

**danshan11** · 03-20-19, 02:10 AM

No the ml on 2.5 2 or 3 never moved.

**ping-pong-pop** · 03-20-19, 06:02 AM

Folks, sorry to go off at a tangent, but I wanted to ask about some of the markets linked to above.

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/archive/brooklyn-nets-sacramento-kings-187/

This market above has the following title: 1.988 Brooklyn Nets +2

Questions:

1. I get what the market *is* (HT spread), but then why is the "1.988" in the market title? I assume 1.988 is the decimal odds that the creator of the market was offering (i.e. so users could come in and back at 1.988)... but why did the market creator add the odds in the market title?

2. Who created this market?

3. Why hasn't it been graded & settled yet?

**Optional** · 03-20-19, 07:11 AM

Was 1.988 the last price matched?

I think that is the only reason it appeared to be in the title for you.

It has been graded and settled. Now anyway.

**ping-pong-pop** · 03-20-19, 08:04 AM

Originally posted by Optional

Was 1.988 the last price matched?
I think that is the only reason it appeared to be in the title for you.

Ah, yes, that makes some kind of sense. And the order history suggests you are right.

Originally posted by Optional

It has been graded and settled. Now anyway.

You're right - it says it has been graded and settled in the market info. I could have found that myself... sorry.
I assumed incorrectly that the market would disappear once settled.

Thanks Optional!

**danshan11** · 03-20-19, 09:23 AM

most market makers include in the title the opening odds. it has no significance

**danshan11** · 03-20-19, 09:26 AM

this makes it appear to me that fairlay wagers do not move pinnacles lines. I know people say different but this is pretty apparent that they don't.

**littlekona** · 03-20-19, 12:58 PM

action play so far

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/market/ekaterina-alexandrova-vs-dayana-yastremska-53/?referral=201b411c-7337-47c9-b538-3b8c1c32fc44

Also some NCAA hoops props that taking good money like will any #1 seed win title and will Gonzaga win

**danshan11** · 03-20-19, 01:01 PM

is that real action or arb plays? that is the real question not that it matters I see those type of markets get hit like that and lose often

**littlekona** · 03-20-19, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

is that real action or arb plays? that is the real question not that it matters I see those type of markets get hit like that and lose often

It’s interesting to see what markets get hit like this...with btc flat of late I’ve seen more arbs on Fairlay..but no way of knowing for sure

**littlekona** · 03-20-19, 05:55 PM

wow here is a monster matched it's at -121 @ nitrogen

404 — Fairlay - Bitcoin Prediction Market and Exchange

https://fairlay.com/market/boston-celtics-philadelphia-76ers-543/?referral=201b411c-7337-47c9-b538-3b8c1c32fc44

**danshan11** · 03-20-19, 07:20 PM

I jumped on that a ton heavy as well. I like Celtics iin this spot after I read the philly news! Personal bet, I did not model it