thanks for the write up squirrel, glad you are not on the Uruguay/Mexico draw...
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Thanks dude - it may well end up in a draw, but I just think Uruguay will lose if they try and sit back for a draw. The odds on a good attacking team to win AND avoid an Argentina clash in the 2nd round were just TOO good to pass up.Comment -
Well a horrible misjudgement in backing France but the Uruguayans won at a nice price, which also means the future bet (post #1) won also.
I wont be too greedy and will take that as a job well done
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Squirrel: nice! we backed Uruguay as well. congrats.
you like S.Korea ML?Comment -
I'm kind of not sure about that. Ive already backed Argies to win big tonight, but I also have a future on Greece to qualify - I really should be thinking about my outrights before I place these bets.
Will have a look a bit close to kick off, gotta go and get some food whilst there is a break in play
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Argentina covered the spread but the Greece future is a loser, so another 0.5u onto the profit line - was very fearful for a while that the Argies were going to draw and the Koreans win. It all turned out nice in the end
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You know what I just realized while watching Argies? Another time I will play teams like Argentina or England (i did both ML) i'll place an insurance bet at the correct score 0-0 just to return my initial stake. It would've paid off betting England vs AlgeriaComment -
Sound strategy, I usually use a similar method to that during the regular football seasons - its always nice to have insurance, I just think the talent difference between the best teams and the worst in the world cup is just too great to make the insurance 0-0 play good "value".Comment -
If you are using BetFair and you back 0-0 it's always a time to lay and still make a profit thouComment -
I've always found the betfair markets are pretty tight on in-play and have never really taken the time to master it on anything other than Golf - I have tried to get involved in football but most of my leans and strategys with football dont really lean towards backing and laying later, since it reduces the value of them.
Still, good luck if you do use that method since obviously these are only my personal opinions. If you do start using it let me know how you get on, always interested in the results of other peoples methods
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Squirrel, Im gonna tell you right now. I used to do it but you need to be patient with all this stuff. I prefer to bet straight ML like bet @1.8 odds and when the team scores lay it @1.25.
On the other hand I know some ppl who use Trading Markets and they do that for living. They trade everything what they possibly can before the game even starts cuz there are money movements before the event. The profit is small but when you multiply the small amount by number of trades you'll get what you want.
But as i said before it takes time and patience - not for me.Comment -
Oh yeah I totally agree, but I do all this for different reasons nowadays than what I used to - sure the winning is a good feeling etc, but my stakes are nowhere near big enough to make all the grinding and 5 pence trading worthwhile. I'd rather just read/analyse the stats/situations and watch games, and try to pick winners.
I do it because I'm kinda arrogant and when I have a winner I get to say "I told you so"
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England Vs Slovenia - England (-1.5) +125
This is probably a stupidly patriotic pick more than anything else. Its a massive game and the ass kickings will have been handed out, the humiliation in the media is complete - now its time to get shit sorted for the business end of the world cup. England drew their first 2 games against lowly teams once before and went on to make the semi finals, I have no real worries that the result will be right today, something like 2-0 will do nicely.
USA vs Algeria - Under 1.5 Goals +254
Assuming England beat Slovenia which I expect then the USA will only need a draw from this so I'm expecting them to be a bit cagey and defensive early on. I think the States are obviously the better team here but there is no real need for them to go out and try to destroy Algeria, no matter what the other result is 1-0 will be good enough to take them through to the 2nd round. I'm expecting tight and cagey, I'm not expecting many goals and ultimately I think this will be 0-0 or 1-0 to the USA.
Good luck to all with whatever you play this afternoon. Will be back in a few hours with tonights games, need to grab a few beers and watching England destroy the Slovenians.
COME ON ENGLAND...!!!Comment -
Getting on the -1.5 as well for luck.
COME ON, THREE LIONS! MAKE US PROUD!Comment -
USA need to win in order to advance if England beat Slovenia because they both have 2p while Slovenia have 4p. Just wanted to tell you this before the matches begin if you wanted to change that play because USA must win. Good luck today!Comment -
Yeah I got that, was just rushing my write up. The bet still stands, thanks for noting it though
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Well the USA unders hit nicely but that late goal gazumped my futures bet (Post #1) - so just another 0.5u ish onto the tally.
Can't complain really.Comment -
To bad Rooney dident score on his big chance for ya but that under play was real nice, dident think you would hit that to be honest. I think the whole neighborhood heard me scream when USA scored had big units on them.
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ENGERLAND!!! ENGERLAND!!! ENGERLAND!!!!
USA! USA! USA!
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When England scored early I sort of thought whether my bet was gonna cover, but by the full time whistle I didnt really give a ****, just wanted them to get through, somehow, someway!!!
Watching Wednesday and England too often has probably knocked 10 years of my life expectancy!!Comment -
Aye! same for me with England and Liverpool. Was shitting it in the last 10 but the lads got it done. Well chuffed.Comment -
Australia vs Serbia - Serbia [-1.5] +220
Going for a biggie here, not very often a team is this price on the handicap against someone who's looked as awful as the Australians have. Serbia didnt start out too great but got the job done against Germany and I think the momentum of recovering from a bad start will see them win by a few here. Australia have probably been unlucky with the refereeing decisions against them and I think that will play on their minds here, but for me they have no looked like a good team at all in their 2 games so far.
Germany vs Ghana - Under 1.5 Goals +260
Tricky one this so I am trying to work out how this will pan out. Germany know a win will take them through, so if they get a lead they will sit back and take 1-0 rather than keep attacking and risk giving up a goal that could eliminate them if the result is right in the other game. Ghana top the group and know a draw is guaranteed to take them through so they aint going to be too attacking from the start. Its a very longshot but I can see this being a 0-0 or a 1-0 Germany game.Comment -
Once again hit an under at big odds, which is cancelled out partly by a loser and partly by a losing futures bet - so just another 0.6u on to the tally.
Can't complain
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Going to take a risk here and stick to a tactic thats done well for me so far in this world cup, and especially during the "crucial" last round of group games. Thats even considering the fact that none of the games in this group have covered this line so far.
Paraguay vs New Zealand - Under 1.5 Goals +240
Paraguay have been the best team in this group so far and they know that a draw here is good enough to see them through, they wont go bombing forward that much to try and get a win since if they get picked off on the counter attack it could possibly eliminate them. New Zealand have shown defensively that they can be tough to break down but they arent the greatest attacking threat and shouldnt pose Paraguay that many problems in that aspect. I can see this being either 0-0 or 1-0 Paraguay.
Slovakia vs Italy - Under 1.5 Goals +200
Italy have been pretty awful in an attacking sense in this world cup with question marks about all their strikers being able to create the few chances Italian teams tend to create. They still look very strong at the back and I have seen nothing from the Slovaks to show they can seriously threaten the Azzuri goal. Italy know a win is good enough so if they get 1-0 up at some point they will go into "italian" mode and just kill the game, making sure they dont concede and not push too many players forward.
Looking at my futures bet in this group I have total group goals u13 at +220 -- so hopefully there are less than 5 goals in total over these games, 5 exactly would give me a push, any more than that would probably gazump both of these single bets and the futures...so Its a risk, but thats the nature of the beast.
Good luck to whatever you are all on today
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**** sakes - all these late goes in the Azzuri/Slovaks game have ****ed my futures bet, its currently pushing so a goal in either game turns it into a loss!!!
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0-0 final in the Paraguay game so that bets a winner - hopefully Italy dont steal one back and **** my outright.Comment -
Right 3-2 final so the futures bet pushes, I can handle that.
1.4units added to the tally so a good days work again so far. The total is going up EVER so slowly
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Denmark vs Japan - Denmark to Win +125
Going for Denmark to get the win they need to qualify here, they've looked very good going forward in the tournament so far and even when they lost to Holland they had 2 clear chances to take the lead before the Dutch had even got started. Japan for me are a hard working team and not alot else, I dont think they have it in them to set up defensively and play for a draw, as they will, and then change their tactics if Denmark take the lead. I was impressed with the Japs against what I thought was a decent Cameroon side, but then Denmark went on to beat them too. Taking the Danes at better than evens to eke out a win, maybe 2-0 or something.
Holland vs Cameroon - Under 1.5 Goals +240
Going to riskily stick with this bet again - Holland have hardly set the world alight going forward so far with lots of possesion but lots of long range shots and an inability to break down 2 poor defences. Cameroon are out, so this game means nothing to them, but they wont want to get humiliated so I think they will give it the "flat back ten" job and try and steal a goal on the break. I also expect Holland to give all the reserves a game so its hard to expect attacking football and team cohesion from players who've sat on the bench all week.
This is the least confident i've been on an Under 1.5 bet since I started using them in this world cup, but its hard to argue with the success of it so far.
GL as always to all whatever you are on
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Well I think its safe to say that that group has buried me, badly - both bets last night lost and the futures was already done so -3u on the evening. I guess thats whats gonna happen if I severely over-estimate one team (Denmark) and undre-estimate another (Japan)
Onwards and upwards to the final round of group games today
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Korea DPR vs Ivory Coast - Under 1.5 Goals +320
Despite what the table suggests this game is fairly meaningless - the only way the Ivory Coast can qualify is if they win and Brazil win, and there is a 9 goal swing in GD between the Ivorians and Portugal...In short, its just not gonna happen. The Ivory Coast have looked godawful in both games and have VERY little attacking threat, an unfit Drogba and a bong-eyes like Dindane does not constitute a worthy strikeforce. In their first game against Brazil the DPR did ok because BRazil played a slow tempo and didnt try to force the issue, and came to struggle against Portugal because of their superior speed. African teams are known for strength more than speed and that COULD suit Korea. I wanted to back Korea but dont know if they can actually score, so will stick with the unders and hope for 0-0 or 1-0.Comment -
Brazil vs Portugal - Over 2.5 Goals +135
Going against general public opinion here though I do appreciate this game doesnt mean alot. A draw would be enough to take both teams through but the motivation is there for someone to get a win and avoid Spain in the 2nd round. Brazil teams don't do anything other than play to score goals and win games, they dont DO sitting back in defense. Portugal aren't good enough at the back to hold out for 90 minutes but I think they can cause Brazil a few problems going forward, free kicks are always gonna be dangerous. I can see this ending in a win to somebody, hope it covers the line.
Gone for 2 totals this afternoon that most people wont like, but good luck to all whatever you play
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