Depends on the lineup for Athletico, in my opinion.
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No its cool. Id agree with you if I was laying big money down on those plays with high odds, but I keep a very conservative bankroll. Most of my plays I'm only wagering between 0.25-0.5% of bankroll. Your correct that they don't hit that often and they level out long-term, but since I don't ever over-bet it reduces my risk. I think big picture though and in the long-term I find them profitable. The reason I throw down on the draw is just because I find value in it too sometimes. Sometimes I don't and just go for a straight win play. I play a lot of underdogs and draws just because that's the way it works out in my analysis of value more often than a favorite.Comment -
1/23/14 12:30pm(Dijon (FRA-Cup) vs Auxerre (FRA-Cup)) Draw +232
1/23/14 12:30pm Dijon (FRA-Cup)/Auxerre (FRA-Cup) Under 2½ -123
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1/23/14 1:00pm Aiginiakos (GRE-Cup)/Panionios (GRE-Cup) Under 2,2½ -111
Expecting a 1-0 result for Panionios. Last time they met a couple weeks ago, Aigniakos won 1-0 at home. Now they will play in Panionios house and I expect some stiff competition. Panionios is overrated in current odds, at -260. I have them at -159. The draw should be at +455 and Aiginiakos at +1076. There should be little scoring in this matchup and may go 0-0 at FT, so I will go with the under on this one and hope it stays under 2 to avoid splitting the bet.Comment -
1/23/14 12:30pm Draw (Kaizer Chiefs (RSA) vs Mamelodi Sundowns (RSA)) +206
I dont usually pick draws with these low of odds, but here I will make an exception. You have the top two teams in the league here and a 0-0 FT is very likely. I have the draw fair odds at +140, so I will go for it.Comment -
Glad to see I have company! GL to you too.Comment -
1/23/14 1:00pm France - French Coupe de France / Cannes -125
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athletico fh under $ ... on florentina sh -.5Comment -
1/24/14 2:30pm Rennes (FRA-1)/Lille (FRA-1) Under 2½ -128Comment -
1/24/14 1:00pm Karabukspor (TUR-S)/Kasimpasa (TUR-S) Over 2½ -115
Im predicting a 2-1 result in favor of Kasimpasa. The only issue I have with this is Karabukspor aren't very good at scoring. I do feel they can get in at least one here though. Kasimpasa could also blow them out, too which Id be fine with. Current odds for 1X2 are all fair and I dont find value in any bet there. Well, unless you are going for Kasimpasa win I think thatd be the only play. I have to trust my numbers though and Im getting -107 for Kasi which is right on with current odds so I will only play the Over on this one.Comment -
1/24/14 2:30pm Trapani (ITA-B) +116
1/24/14 2:30pm Padova (ITA-B)/Trapani (ITA-B) Over 2,2½ -108Comment -
1/24/14 2:00pm VVV Venlo (HOL-2) +420Comment -
1/24/14 2:00pm Emmen (HOL-2) -118Comment -
1/24/14 1:00pm Hansa Rostock (GER-3) +157
1/24/14 1:00pm Hansa Rostock (GER-3)/VfB Stuttgart II (GER-3) Over 2,2½ +101
Im predicting a 1-2 victory for hansa .
Just to let you all know, I do have a spreadsheet up tracking my picks. You can find it here:
http://footy4jesus.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/Comment -
1/24/14 2:00pm Draw (Den Bosch (HOL-2) vs Fortuna Sittard (HOL-2)) +257Comment -
1/24/14 2:00pmDraw (De Graafschap (HOL-2) vs Almere City (HOL-2)) +290Comment -
1/24/14 2:45pm Gillingham (ENG-One)/Brentford (ENG-One) Over 2½,3 -120Comment -
1/24/14 2:45pm Coventry (ENG-FACup) +2598
1/24/14 2:45pm Draw (Coventry (ENG-FACup) vs Arsenal (ENG-FACup)) +1091
I don't expect to post this without catching flack for it. Its crazy, I know. But Arsenal is so overpriced here I have to stick to my strategy regardless of how insane this is. Whatever. You know what I think is crazy? Laying down money on Arsenal at -900 odds. Thats crazy. My calculations have them at -365. A lot of difference there. Draw odds I got at +801 and a Coventry win at +900. Do I expect Coventry to win? No. But don't tell me that crazier things haven't happened in the game. Upsets happen all the time, and I'm banking on these odds to be favorable to my bankroll in the long run. Have fun with this, I know I will!Comment -
1/24/14 3:00pm Nottingham Forest (ENG-FACup) -1 +101
Last footy punt of the day! GL folks.Comment -
1/25/14 10:00am Draw (Watford (ENG-FACup) vs Manchester City (ENG-FACup)) +1051Comment -
3 plays on upcoming match in 15 minutes....
1/25/14 12:30pmStevenage (ENG-FACup) +1086
1/25/14 12:30pm Everton (ENG-FACup)/Stevenage (ENG-FACup) Under 3 +101
1/25/14 12:30pm Draw (Everton (ENG-FACup) vs Stevenage (ENG-FACup)) +530Comment -
How can you have Arsenal @ -365? Maybe you are right they shouldnt have been -900 but -365 would be similar odds against Cpalace/Norwich who are in the same league as Arsenal..........
doesnt make any sense.
at all.Comment -
1/27/14 4:00pm Spain Soccer 51 Elche (ESP-P)/Real Sociedad (ESP-P) Over 2½ -124
1/27/14 4:00pm Spain Soccer Real Sociedad -1 -110Comment -
1/27/14 11:00am Sporting Braga II (POR-2) +168
1/27/14 6:00pm Santiago Wanderers (CHI) +118Comment -
Orlando Pirates vs. Ajax Cape Town Under 2½ (-130)Comment -
Dang Sporting Braga.. gives up a 2-1 lead for a 2-2 draw in the last minute.
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Manchester United -1½ (-130)
Seems like too easy of a bet. Maybe I should be scared because of this? I don't know, I'm thinking 3-1 or 3-0.Comment -
Newcastle (ENG-P) +167 / Newcastle (ENG-P)/Norwich City (ENG-P) Under 2½ -113Comment -
Arsenal (ENG-P) -105
my numbers have them at -150 and im predicting the score to be 1-2 or 0-2.Comment -
Olympique Marseille vs. Valenciennes FC Over 2½ (-105)
Valenciennes FC +580
Valenciennes FC +1 (-110)
Good odds on this game. I have game total calculated at 1.8-1.2 (3 goals), Valenciennes at +390 to win. Draw would also be decent bet, but value is only 2% while straight Valenciennes play offers 5.4%. Projected game total in most likely order: marsielle 2-1, 2-2 , 1-2 valenciennes.Comment -
Bayern Munchen (GER-1)/VfB Stuttgart (GER-1) Under 3½ -125
Bayern Munchen (GER-1) -1½ -128
FC Bayern München -2 (+135)
Take the alt line for Bayern , -2 (+135) . They should win by at least 2 goals. Likely to win by 3, I'm predicting a 0-3 score here. If somehow Stuttgart scores a goal or Bayern doesn't get 3, you get your money back.Comment -
should be comfortable, but Robben and Ribery are outComment -
Lazio - Napoli Under 2.5 (+110)
Pretty decent odds on this bet. I see this game possibly ending in a 1-1 draw, or at least kept under 3 goals. From the weather report its pretty nasty right now which also usually means less goals.Comment
BOL to us
