Footy4Jesus Footy picks

[Footy4Jesus]

1/16/14 2:00pm Villarreal (ESP-Cup) -155* vs Real Sociedad
1/16/14 2:30pm Alfreton (ENG-Conf) -170* vs Tamworth


I also have Niki Volou (greece) at +140, but the line has been adjusted to -105 now that word has come out about the opposing team will be missing many key players.

[Merkel]

Cannot Jesus change juice into wine?

[Footy4Jesus]

Ha! Anyone can do that with a little bit of brewers yeast.. its the water to wine part that's a bit more difficult!

[Footy4Jesus]

1/16/14 12:00pm Estoril Praia (POR-CUP) -166*vs Belenenses

1/16/14 12:00pm European Cup - Werder Bremen (ClubFriendly) -132* vs Steaua Bucharest

1/16/14 1:00pm Morocco (Africa-CAF) -130* vs Burkina Faso

1/16/14 1:00pm (Greece Cup) Apollon Smyrnis / Niki Volou Over 2,2½ -109*

[Footy4Jesus]

Here are 5 of my plays for Saturday. I have begun a spreadsheet in MySBRForum to track my plays and provide some accountability to my picks. I don't really expect anyone to notice my plays until I build some reputation around here as I'm a new face and need to earn that respect. I understand that. I wouldn't pay anyone any attention either unless they've earned it.

1/18/14 1:45pm Holland Soccer 208 RKC Waalwick (HOL-E) +178*vs Groningen

England - English League One-Swindon Town EVEN Jan 18/14@10:00a Competitor: Gillingham

Scotland - Scottish Premier League-Hearts +800 Jan 18/14@10:00a-Competitor: St Johnstone

Scotland - Scottish League Two-Albion Rovers +145 Jan 18/14@10:00a-Competitor: East Stirlingshire

Scotland - Scottish Premier League- Dundee United EVEN Jan 18/14@10:00a-Competitor: Ross County

[Footy4Jesus]

1/17/14 2:00pm Holland Soccer - (FC Eindhoven (HOL-2) vs MVV Maastricht - Draw+263
1/17/14 2:00pm Holland Soccer- SC Heracles (HOL-E) +2 -124* vs Twente
1/17/14 2:00pm - SC Heracles (HOL-E) vs Twente Draw +619*
1/17/14 3:00pm Spain Soccer- Valencia/Malaga Under 2½ -125
1/17/14 3:00pm Spain Soccer Valencia (ESP-P) pk -110* vs Malaga

[Footy4Jesus]

You've been reported. Get your touting, scamming garbage off my thread. Thank You.

[Footy4Jesus]

Under 2½ (+105)
Oeste FC vs. CA Penapolense

1/20/14 3:00pm England Soccer 51 Draw (Everton (ENG-P) vs West Bromwich (ENG-P)) +247
1/20/14 12:30pm Greece Soccer Platanias (GRE-S) +119

1/20/14 2:00pm Holland Soccer Draw (De Graafschap (HOL-2) vs PSV Eindhoven Youth (HOL-2)) +268
1/20/14 2:00pm Holland Soccer De Graafschap (HOL-2)/PSV Eindhoven Youth (HOL-2) Under 3 +101
1/20/14 1:50pm Israel Soccer Draw (Maccabi Haifa (ISR) vs Hapoel Beer Sheva (ISR)) +243
1/20/14 3:00pm Portugal Soccer Estoril Praia (POR)/Nacional (POR) Under 2½ -136
1/20/14 1:00pm Turkey Soccer (Orduspor (TUR-1) vs Mersin I.Y. Draw+218


I'm really liking Platanias here. They are undervalued here and for playing at home, not having to lay any juice is pretty appealing.

[Footy4Jesus]

1/21/14 3:00pm Spain Soccer Real Madrid (ESP-Cup)/Espanyol (ESP-Cup) Under 3 +117
1/21/14 2:45pm Scotland Soccer Draw (St. Johnstone (SCO-P) vs Partick Thistle (SCO-P)) +233
1/21/14 2:45pm Scotland Soccer St. Johnstone (SCO-P)/Partick Thistle (SCO-P) Under 2½ -126

[Footy4Jesus]

1/21/14 2:45pm England Soccer 254 Notts County (ENG-One) +422 *vs Peterborough

Peterborough is likely to win or for a draw +280 isn't too bad, but my projections have Peterborough at fair odds and Draw at +300. The real value is in a play on Notts County. I have them at +273 odds, so I'm getting close to 8% value with a play on them. Now that's never all I need to go for it. I always need to actually believe they can win for it to be a value play. I think they can here. Notts County have been on a roll winning their last 3. They would love to play spoiler here and a win is possible. Less aggressive plays would be a X2 double chance or the spread is at +0.5 @ +125 odds.

1/21/14 2:45pm England Soccer MK Dons (ENG-One)/Crewe (ENG-One) Under 2½ +116
1/21/14 2:45pm England Soccer Draw (MK Dons (ENG-One) vs Crewe (ENG-One)) +268



A ton of English games for Tuesday I've yet to cap. more picks to come.

1/21/14 2:45pm England Soccer Rochdale (ENG-Two)/Chesterfield (ENG-Two) Under 2½ -113
1/21/14 2:45pm England Soccer Draw (Rochdale (ENG-Two) vs Chesterfield (ENG-Two)) +245

[Footy4Jesus]

1/21/14 12:00pm France Soccer Caen (FRA-Cup)/Ajaccio (FRA-Cup) Under 2½ -127
1/21/14 12:00pm France Soccer Draw (Caen (FRA-Cup) vs Ajaccio (FRA-Cup)) +223



Caen/Ajaccio U2.5 has some good odds on it. I've capped this to be a very low scoring game , 0-0 no score is possible. There is a lower line U2, 2.5 at +100 if your more daring.The draw i have capped at +152 odds.

1/21/14 12:30pm Bastia (FRA-Cup)/Lens (FRA-Cup) Under 2½ -109
1/21/14 1:00pm France Soccer 110 Sochaux (FRA-Cup)/Angers (FRA-Cup) Under 2½ -136
1/21/14 3:00pm Nice (FRA-Cup)/Marseille (FRA-Cup) Over 2,2½ -128
1/21/14 2:45pm Italian Cup AS Roma v Juventus Double Chance - Juventus (ITA-Cup) +205 AND Draw +230

[Footy4Jesus]

1/21/14 8:10pm Argentina Soccer Racing Club (ARG) +216* vs Newells Old Boys

I like the odds on Racing Club here. This will be a low scoring game and a draw is probable, however Racing Club has a favorable edge against the home team. Im predicting a 0-1 score for racing Club, and Racing club to win with a 36.5% chance (+174). At +216, you have a 5% margin on this play.

[Merkel]

Hey Jesus, you've edited every single post but one featuring your bets. If you want some cred, better cut that out. Just saying. Savior.

[Footy4Jesus]

Hey Jesus, you've edited every single post but one featuring your bets. If you want some cred, better cut that out. Just saying. Savior.

I've just been adding games to the daily post as I go along throughout the day so I don't run too long of a thread. Just doing it to save space, but I see your point. If you check out my spreadsheet, I've also been adding them there and they're left alone.

[Footy4Jesus]

1/22/14 2:45pmSunderland (ENG-Cup) +908 vs Manchester Utd

Im putting a small wager on this. Man U is overrated here. They have one of the most loyal fanbases in football, and their lines are always overjuiced. Man U is missing a lot of key players for this match. They really need the win here, but I don't believe this is a give-in that they will win. Sunderland isnt a bad team in the own respect, and I wouldnt be surprised if they upset Man U tomorrow. Big upset for sure and not likely, but I think its much better odds than +908. My calculations have the odds for Sunderland at +705. Im not expecting this to hit, but in the long-run if this matchup was played 100 times it would pay off. Therefore, Ill put a little money on it and see if I get lucky.

[Footy4Jesus]

1/22/14 2:00pm Brazil Soccer Resende (BRA-C)/Audax Rio (BRA-C) Under 2½ -126

Predicting a 1-0 or 1-1 game here. Theres a little value in a draw at +230, but Im thinking 1-0 is most probable so Im staying away from the moneylines.

[Footy4Jesus]

1/22/14 6:30am Turkey Soccer Draw (Akhisar Belediye (TUR-Cup) vs Sivasspor (TUR-Cup)) +289
1/22/14 6:30am Turkey Soccer Akhisar Belediye (TUR-Cup)/Sivasspor (TUR-Cup) Under 2½ -108

Should be a pretty tight game, predicting a 1-1 score. Great odds on the draw here for two evenly matched teams as 0-0 is also a likely result. Will also go for the Under to hedge in case draw does not hit and a 1-0 or 0-1 result occurs.

[Footy4Jesus]

1/22/14 2:00pm Racing Santander (ESP-Cup) +1352* vs Real Sociedad
1/22/14 2:00pm Racing Santander (ESP-Cup)/Real Sociedad (ESP-Cup) Under 3 -109
1/22/14 2:00pm Racing Santander (ESP-Cup) vs Real Sociedad (ESP-Cup)) Draw +531

Real Sociedad is very overrated in this match. Many are projecting them to win by at least two points, but this is a stretch. Odds for Sociedad right now are at -405. Over 80% chance of a win here? This is way too high. My calculations have them set at -233 which is a more reasonable number. Sociedad may be at the top of the table, but Santander is no pushover currently at 3rd. santander has struggled as of late but this is a great match for them to try taking the leader down and improving their spot. 3 goals in this game is likely, but it will probably be a tighter match. Both teams are aggressive scorers and Over 3 can happen, but 3 goals will result in a push if this event occurs. My calculations have the draw set at +440 and a Santander win at +769. With current odds being given, there is value in either play. I am taking the draw and santander for a small position and banking on this game to be under 3goals at -109 which isnt too much juice to lay down. This is definitely one of my riskier plays, but I see value in this game which I wont avoid. Good luck.

[Footy4Jesus]

1/22/14 2:55pm Montpellier (FRA-Cup) +1683
1/22/14 2:55pm Draw (Montpellier (FRA-Cup) vs PSG (FRA-Cup)) +610


Another highly overranked team today is Paris PSG. They are also at top of the table here, but these odds given for them are even more overvalued than in the Real Sociedad match. Current odds for PSG are at -500. My numbers are giving them a -257 for win. Draw at +446, and Montpelier win at +934. The draw is a particularly interesting play. Montpelier has proven to be a tough opponent to beat and if you look at their record, they are a draw machine. Given a few of their starters will miss game on suspension, PSG will also be expected to field a weaker team in this match. I believe PSG might make a mistake here underestimating Montpelier, leaving them open to a draw being possible or even a major upset. Remember, these kind of plays I make are for VALUE. They do not hit with regularity, but in the long run they can be profitable. If anything, just take note that the favorites are highly overvalued in my book and should be avoided. Laying -500 is suicide. If you are looking to wager on a more expected outcome, I would leave these more volatile plays alone and look for my plays with better odds and the O/Us.

[Footy4Jesus]

1/22/14 1:45pm Holland Soccer NEC Nijmegen (HOL-CUP) -103*vs Utrecht

FC Utrecht is in a lower division that has had luck swing their way a couple times to get this far. They have alot of motivation here on the road, but I dont think they have enough to win against Nijmegen. The best they can hope for is a draw, but it wont be likely as I see Nijmegen scoring at least 2 goals, maybe 3 compared to Utrecht who may squeak in 1. Predicted score for this game is 2-1 Nijmegen. Nijmegen is being offered at a pretty decent price of -103 for what I believe should be an easy home win.

[Vaughany]

1/22/14 1:45pm Holland Soccer NEC Nijmegen (HOL-CUP) -103*vs Utrecht

FC Utrecht is in a lower division that has had luck swing their way a couple times to get this far. They have alot of motivation here on the road, but I dont think they have enough to win against Nijmegen. The best they can hope for is a draw, but it wont be likely as I see Nijmegen scoring at least 2 goals, maybe 3 compared to Utrecht who may squeak in 1. Predicted score for this game is 2-1 Nijmegen. Nijmegen is being offered at a pretty decent price of -103 for what I believe should be an easy home win.

Que?! Utrecht are in Eredivisie and above NEC in the league! And Utrecht beat Cambuur 2-0 away to get to this round which isnt easy as Cambuur are no joke at home. Utrecht are terrible defensively but still I dont understand your reasoning!

[Footy4Jesus]

Your right, they are not in Eerste Divisie. I think I got this from a write-up that I read. Most of my analysis comes from number-crunching, though, and not from word of mouth. I still like to read up on others opinions to get a feel for the match, but they often contain errors like what you pointed out so I dont put too much stock into it . As you stated, they aren't too good defensively. My predictions come from a lot of fundamental research, so it doesn't change my opinion on this pick much. Thanks for pointing that out, though, I do appreciate it!

[Footy4Jesus]

1/22/14 2:45pm Holland Soccer 307 Feyenoord (HOL-CUP)/Ajax (HOL-CUP) Under 3 -117

The odds for the Ajax (-133) and Draw(+305) are fairly priced. Fayenoord is the worst bet(+377). Fayenoord odds really should be at +669. I'm finding the Under3 to be a good bet. Feyenoord may not score in this match at all and will have a hard time stopping an offensive barrage by Ajax. I expect a 2-0 or 1-0 final score for Ajax, but if something different occurs the total set at 3 gives a little cushion room and makes a push possible.

[Footy4Jesus]

1/22/14 7:00pmCosta Rica +647 vs Chile
1/22/14 7:00pm Costa Rica vs Chile Draw +324


Many are touting this game to be an easy match for Chile to win. It is true that C.R. doesn't play as well on the road. However, Chile is not expected to field a strong team today in anticipation for playing Brazil. The current odds are pointing towards a 2-1 victory for Chile. I believe it will be a tighter game than that. A 1-1 score seems most likely to me, and the odds for an outright win by Costa Rica are favorable. My estimations are Chile+140, Draw+198, and Costa Rica+300. I'm backing both draw and Costa Rica here.

[Footy4Jesus]

Montpellier (FRA-Cup) +1683 cashed!!!
Was anyone with me??

[onemoregoal]

That was a great bet!
But i think you are the only person on the planet that would have thought Feyenoord should have been +669 today, dunno how you got that number..

[Footy4Jesus]

That was a great bet!
But i think you are the only person on the planet that would have thought Feyenoord should have been +669 today, dunno how you got that number..

Final score was 3-1 Ajax so the U3 didn't hit. Their offense was even stronger than expected, or Fayenoord defense weaker. Either way, Ajax was far stronger than Fayenoord. +669 made sense to me. I don't follow public opinion at all but rather trust my own research. In fact, Id say I more often than not go the opposite of public opinion. So it doesn't surprise me I'm in the minority with this one!

[Footy4Jesus]

1/23/14 3:00pm Italy Soccer Siena (ITA-Cup) +1265
Draw (Siena (ITA-Cup) vs Fiorentina (ITA-Cup)) +533Odds on Siena are very attractive here. I have Siena at +566. The draw is a good bet too offered at current odds. I'm calculating fair draw odds to be at +426. Fiorentina is overpriced, I have them at -194 here, but are being offered by most books around -390. Siena is being grossly undervalued here and a play on them cannot be avoided at current stakes. Fiorentina will likely field a weaker team today at home in anticipation for moving on to the Champions Cup, while Siena will take advantage of their position and field their top lineup. 3goals are expected in this matchup, likely 2-1 Fiorentina, but 2-2 is also a good possibility. O/U odds offer little value in my opinion so I will lay off making a play here as the score is harder for me to predict in this matchup.

[ricky0067]

its too early from their data?

[ChicagoCover]

Good luck footy! Hope it results in a draw

[Footy4Jesus]

1/23/14 2:00pm Cabofriense RJ /Nova Iguacu (BRA-C) Under 2½ -114

I'm expecting a 1-0 end result for Nova Iguacu. These are two evenly matched teams and they are not known for scoring, so a 1-1 or 0-0 draw is also likely. The odds for draw have raised too much this morning and I missed a good opportunity at giving it a try. I wanted something above +240, but it is now around +230. So I'm just going to play the Under here which I think is being offered on the cheap.

[NolaDrewDats]

1/23/14 2:00pm Cabofriense RJ /Nova Iguacu (BRA-C) Under 2½ -114

I'm expecting a 1-0 end result for Nova Iguacu. These are two evenly matched teams and they are not known for scoring, so a 1-1 or 0-0 draw is also likely. The odds for draw have raised too much this morning and I missed a good opportunity at giving it a try. I wanted something above +240, but it is now around +230. So I'm just going to play the Under here which I think is being offered on the cheap.

I see the opposite here. I could see this being 2-1 or 2-2.

Best of luck either way.

[flynnardskynard]

Not hating here Footy, but it seems like your stretching for big pay outs.. I mean you hit Montpieller yesterday but you laid down on the draw too to go along with going 0-3 in copa del rey, 0-2 international, 0-2 turkish league and 0-1 on english cup chasing these big pay offs... Not hating but if psg wins that game, u have one shit day.

[flynnardskynard]

Athletico fh under 1.5 -120 today

[Vaughany]

Athletico fh under 1.5 -120 today

yeah should hit