EP36's Deep, Deep Soccer Thoughts

azsportswin · 10-29-13, 10:49 AM

You and I seem to be drawn to a lot of the same games....hasn't been working that great recently, but I still have faith!!

I posted the U17 game before reading your post....I was only able to get 3 for the O/U on Bovada, would have liked to get the 2-1/2, but truly believe worst I'm going to do here is push.

Capital One Cup games are pretty tough.....for fun, I put a very small parlay together with Stoke (EVEN)/Chelsea (+125)/Burnley (+130)/Leichester(+120). I think Stoke has best chance of winning of these 4, might put something on them later.

Stay Thirsty My Friend!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-29-13, 10:52 AM

Yeah the juice for Over 2.5 was pretty high at -170 I think at one of the books I use. Good for parlay inclusion perhaps at the least.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-29-13, 11:46 AM

Nigeria U-17 looks damn near unstoppable.

azsportswin · 10-29-13, 11:56 AM

yeah they do....and doing it against a pretty solid defensive team.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-29-13, 12:02 PM

If Nigeria holds and I would expect that, the QF between them & Uruguay should be outstanding.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-29-13, 03:39 PM

Spain La Liga
Even though Barcelona can explode for multiple goals, they tend to take a bit to break out on the road. Makes me thinks Under 1.5 in the 1st half isn't the worst thing you can find. In eight road matches overall this season in all competitions, only two have seen more than two goals in the 1st half.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-29-13, 04:11 PM

Or Barca scores early and you've got major trouble to keep out a 2nd goal. Deep Deep Thoughts of a dumb shit.

azsportswin · 10-29-13, 04:25 PM

Take it easy on yourself EP, we're all dumb shits for doing this (betting) in the first place! A few of us had an over bet on a Poland game yesterday, and it didn't even come close as the home team rolled over and played dead for 90 minutes. I looked at the Poland games today, and was actually close to betting the first one, but hesitated because of yesterday. And don't you know that not just that one, but both of the Poland games today went over 2.5. So you can either do this to yourself

or this

. Life's too short, choose

!!!!!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-29-13, 05:02 PM

Well my thoughts were actually decent today. U-17 match finished over. Atalanta drew with Inter. Cap One Cup came close to a draw, but another injury time buster by Leicester City. Celta Vigo-Barca did stay under 1.5. I shall continue to talk out loud.

edabramov · 10-29-13, 05:04 PM

EP don't lose your confidence, get back to betting before you get angry with the fact that 60% of your out louds will hit.

Just go with the gut feeling, I started playing more sides/dnb's instead of just totals and I been doing much better than usual. GL.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-29-13, 05:10 PM

I'm a totals guy by nature. Sides have to be pretty obvious for me to play them usually. I used to do parlays here and there. Might look at that again a little more. I enjoy the draw project, but you have to have balls to keep going on those especially when you get punched in the balls by injury time goals repeatedly.

edabramov · 10-29-13, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I'm a totals guy by nature. Sides have to be pretty obvious for me to play them usually. I used to do parlays here and there. Might look at that again a little more. I enjoy the draw project, but you have to have balls to keep going on those especially when you get punched in the balls by injury time goals repeatedly.

Agreed. But sometimes things like juicy ML's @ ( -150-200.. ) are something you need to make money. I've played 5 games today and I've lost 3 of them which were all totals, and won 2 obvious ML's in Polish league.. and I have never ever bet on that league nor do I know what the fk goes on there. All I'm saying is sometimes it's better to straight bet on a team, that way you don't have hope some azzhole scores for no reason.

edabramov · 10-29-13, 05:19 PM

Alright, I usually do totals never sides in Brazil. Let's hope to either prove my point, or get fked a bit more today.

AVAI PK @+109 and America Mineiro ML @-134

America lose to a team that hasn't won an away game in ages.

1

3

12

EaglesPhan36 · 10-30-13, 10:49 AM

Wednesday [10.30.13]

Italy Serie A
Large slate of games in Italy today with a few things standing out to me. #1, Fiorentina-Napoli should be the glamor clash. Over 2.5 is very reasonably priced for two teams ranked in the top five in goal scoring in Serie A. Napoli's defense would be the reason to see this price near +100. Napoli has only conceded six times, but five of those have come in four road tilts. Fiorentina has scored two goals or better in 6/9 overall in league play. Napoli in 7/9. Better yet, Fiorentina has no clean sheets at home, so you'd likely expect both teams to score and quality gives that third a solid chance. An under-the-radar match that could feature goals is Hellas Verona-Sampdoria. Hellas Verona has seen at least three goals in 8/9 this season. Sampdoria somewhat surprisingly has scored two goals in 3/4 on the road and conceded in all four. The home side only has one clean sheet and that came nearly six weeks ago. A shot at an upset on the ML or a draw both priced above +200 could be Sassulo. Udinese has been poor on the road, while Sassulo has now taken at least a share of the points in 4/5.

Spain La Liga
Could be a couple draw opportunities to try out if you're into that. Valladolid-Sociedad & Osasuna-Rayo Vallecano look possible for that. Real Madrid-Sevilla could be a goal fest. Sevilla is obviously going to concede, but they have also been apt to score on the road with six goals in their last four. Real has scored at least two at home in 4/5 and will be eager to bounce back from their Barca loss. Total is higher at 3.5, but still looks bangable.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-30-13, 10:55 AM

Oct 30	SOC [28621] TOTAL o3½-125 (SEVILLA vrs REAL MADRID)
Oct 30	SOC [34417] TOTAL o2½-105 (SAMPDORIA vrs VERONA)
Oct 30	SOC [34429] TOTAL o2½EV (NAPOLI vrs FIORENTINA)
Risking 100 SBR To Win 602.86 SBR Ticket#: 2259176

SBR parlay ticket for today.

azsportswin · 10-30-13, 11:04 AM

BOL EP, hope it hits!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-30-13, 01:00 PM

England Cap One Cup
I like Newcastle-Man City to see at least three goals also. Even with lineup rotation, they should still field a strong side capable of goals as they saw in plastering Wigan 5-0. The reserves always see this as their chance to shine, so hopefully they do. Newcastle has decent depth too and I'd love to see Cisse in there to score again today. I'd expect them to have a few regulars in, but mostly rotated again. The Magpies have given up the 3rd most goals so far in EPL play, so City should find space. City also have the easier of it on the weekend, so they could potentially use some regs as subs if needed although I would bank against it. Newcastle has a tough one with Chelsea scheduled. No Joe Hart for City from what I have read.

swordsandtequila · 10-30-13, 01:06 PM

SBR Free-play, courtesy of the Prick:

PARLAY (6 TEAMS) (FP)

[28610] VALENCIA -233
[28622] REAL MADRID -475
[34406] AC MILAN -130
[34418] VERONA +105
[34422] CAGLIARI -125
[34434] JUVENTUS -600

109 to win 1327.30

EaglesPhan36 · 10-30-13, 01:09 PM

Nice one. I don't know enough about some of those middle tier Serie A teams to try. Something about Milan scared me today although Lazio has sucked hard on the road. I thought that had draw possibilities.

swordsandtequila · 10-30-13, 01:18 PM

Puckit's thread includes a "system" on Seria A, more like a trend where ml favorites cash at a high rate. Has been somewhat consistent with few draws or losses. Free play so taking a shot for a good return. A couple of the games today are basically pick ems so they're probably could candidates for your draw system. Good luck today.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-30-13, 04:38 PM

Mixed bag on my thoughts today. Fiorentina-Napoli went over in the 1st half. Verona-Sampdora is a goal short. Sassuolo is gonna go down 2-1. One of the Spain draws is in the bag. Real Madrid match well on its way to going over. Bale finally proving his worth today, terrorizing Sevilla. Newcastle-City match was the disappointment of the day I would say. Should have at least seen a goal or two, but never really threatened to be broken open with some key misses and just shotty play in the final third.

swordsandtequila · 10-30-13, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by swordsandtequila

SBR Free-play, courtesy of the Prick:

PARLAY (6 TEAMS) (FP)

[28610] VALENCIA -233
[28622] REAL MADRID -475
[34406] AC MILAN -130
[34418] VERONA +105
[34422] CAGLIARI -125
[34434] JUVENTUS -600

109 to win 1327.30

This is why one doesn't put real money on this sh*tfest. Can't do anything about red cards, but Valencia losing at home to the worst team in the league? I should know better

.

On a side note, Serie A is hands down king of the hill when it comes to divers. F*kers were hitting the turf like there were snipers in the stands

.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-31-13, 09:19 AM

Thursday [10.31.13]

UAE Gulf League
This league just got their season started in the last month or so and it's a pretty good beacon for OVERs bettors. The tricks are not over-using it and of course finding a book that lists it. One that I use offers the 2.5 totals, but you'll pay high chalk on the OVERs. That means this is probably best to parlay w/something. Al Ain-Al Nasr looks a decent shot with both teams hitting at least three goal totals in 4/5 matches this season. Al Nasr has scored at least two goals in those four matches. Al Ain has scored multiple goals in 3/5. Only one clean sheet between them.

Spain La Liga
Four matches today. One that seems to pose a real good shot to either take a large ML dog or play the +0.5 is Levante's visit to Real Betis. Betis has lost 4/5 in league play, while Levante have only dropped points this season to Barca & Real Madrid. The +0.5 looks like a nice try for conservative bets, while aggressive bets going for a ML topping +300 could yield a big reward. With a busy schedule and on the road, Atletico Madrid's trip to Granada looks like a decent offer on Under 2.5 goals. Granada has failed to score in 4/5 at home, while only allowing more than one goal in one match on their home pitch. Overall, just two of their ten league matches have gone over two goals. Atletico Madrid has seen two goals or less in three straight road tilts in La Liga with two clean sheets in that mix.

Italy Serie A
Roma ML @ home looks rock solid as they host bottom-feeding Chievo. Roma are 4-0 at home this season and have yet to allow a goal. Chievo have lost three straight on the road after drawing with Parma. They have lost 7/8 overall. They do have a recent history of stifling Roma, but these two squads looks vastly different in quality. The slight concern might be the lineup rotation Roma uses as this is the middle match of a three match stretch in seven days - would monitor lineups, but seems decent for parlay fodder today. The -1.5 @ +100 or better also looks tasty, but the conservative bettor in me says go ML.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-31-13, 01:28 PM

Just as additional info on that UAE league ... all seven matches this week hit 3 goals or better. Only nine matches out of 42 played so far have not hit three goals. If you like OVERs, you probably wanna monitor this league.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-31-13, 03:47 PM

Do unders ever win? LoL Two penalties and an injury time goal in Spain. Gimme a break.

JRoZe410 · 10-31-13, 05:35 PM

Went with your Levante pick and put alittle on ML.Bettis got a red card in 1st half, hopefully in these last 20 min Levante gets a goal.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-31-13, 05:52 PM

A bit lucky & unlucky for Levante. They didn't get anything a man up, but Betis missed a PK ... so all in all, the +0.5 worked out.

The two pieces for parlay fodder worked with the UAE going well over and Roma working a 1-0 win. Smart to listen to my conservative side that said take the ML and not the -1.5.

Bit unlucky with the Granada-Atletico match going over in injury time.

JRoZe410 · 10-31-13, 06:00 PM

Yea, couldn't watch but I heard Bettis missed 2 PK's!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-31-13, 06:04 PM

Oh yeah just read about that. Holy Crap. Very fortunate, then again that is why Betis sucks lately. Well so far talking through my thoughts feels pretty decent with decent outcomes.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-31-13, 10:20 PM

Friday [11.1.13]

U-17 World Cup
Two matches I like to see goals, one Friday and one Saturday. Friday, Brazil & Mexico is the glamor clash. The Brazilians have scored at least three goals in each of their four matches, while conceding in 3/4. Mexico has kept a couple of clean sheets in a row, but they have not faced the firepower of Brazil. The best team Mexico faced was Nigeria and the Nigerians crushed them 6-1. Mexico has scored in all four of their matches. High chalk on the Over 2.5, but it looks nice to use in parlays. Same goes for Saturday's premier clash between Uruguay & Nigeria. Uruguay have tallied 14 goals, while Nigeria has bettered that with 18 in four matches. Both have kept one clean sheet out of four matches. This QF could well be better than any semifinal or final match-up. Goals seem pretty likely with the Over 2.5 juicy, but looking like good parlay material.

France Ligue 1
PSG hosts Lorient. I like the 1st goal scored prop here as far as the time. In looking over Lorient's road matches in Ligue 1, they have a habit of conceding very early. Lorient has given up a goal inside the 1st 20 minutes in 5/6. If you throw in their five home matches, they have scored or conceded in 4/5 of those within the 1st 20. PSG at home have seen a goal scored or conceded inside the 20th minute in 4/7. +350 is the price for the time periods from 1-10 minutes and 11-20 minutes. A one unit bet on both would yield a tidy profit if the 1st goal comes inside that 20 minute window. Certainly suggest looking at lineups before booking it, but if the Magician Ibrahimovic & Cavani are both in ... I think this has a legit shot.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-01-13, 12:20 PM

Germany Bundesliga
Today's lone match is Dortmund hosting Stuttgart. As usual for a team involved in Champions League, it's a busy time for the home side. Dortmund plays their 3rd match in nine days with another CL match coming up on Wednesday. Stuttgart has no such worries. The total is where I look in this one and at 3.5, it seems a decent shot to try an under perhaps. Dortmund certainly can bash teams with their goal scoring prowess at-times, but they have not scored more than three in their last five matches in all compeitions. Stuttgart have a couple breakout matches this season in scoring, but most have come against sides far more giving than Dortmund. Dortmund has given up just eight goals in ten matches and sports three clean sheets at home in five matches. They have allowed just three goals at home all season. And while their 15 home goals sounds impressive, eleven came in two matches against Hamburger & Freiburg. Outside of those two, they have been kept at two goals or less in their other three home matches. Anything can obviously happen on a given day, but this one looks like it could see three or less.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-01-13, 02:18 PM

PSG shuffled their lineup quite a bit. No Ibrahimovic, but Cavani is in.

PSG: Sirigu, Jallet, Alex, Marquinhos, Digne, Motta, Verratti, Rabiot, Lucas, Menez, Cavani

Still think it's worth a go on the scoring props in the 1st 20 minutes.

edabramov · 11-01-13, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

PSG shuffled their lineup quite a bit. No Ibrahimovic, but Cavani is in.

PSG: Sirigu, Jallet, Alex, Marquinhos, Digne, Motta, Verratti, Rabiot, Lucas, Menez, Cavani

Still think it's worth a go on the scoring props in the 1st 20 minutes.

Took 1st Half PSG for -180.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-01-13, 02:33 PM

2nd miinute goal.