Italian Football All-Season 2013/2014 by TSA

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Let's start again this year!

TORINO vs PESCARA

Today, 20:30 Coppa Italia

Pick: 1 (-0.75 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.85 Bookmaker: Dafabet Torino have claims for this season and they surely would like to start the year in a good way. They didn't had a very tough preseason but the team is solid and tonight they'll face a weakened Pescara, after being relegated from Serie A. Abruzzesi, which won the previous leg only by 1-0 against Pordenone (5th division), will miss starting keeper Pelizzoli (injured) and midfielder Rizzo (suspended after being sent off one week ago) and they won't lineup again both probable strating strikers Mascara and Sforzini, in addition to Viviani and Cosic. In my opinion Torino does have a great motivation for this game combined to a solid concentration used to prepare it and they possess the quality to quite easily overcome Pescara.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

JUVE STABIA - VARESE

Today, 20:44 Football - Coppa Italia

Pick: Home -0.25 Stake: 2/10 Odds: 2.02 Bookmaker: PINNACLE Juve Stabia made 64% of their total points at home last season, which is huge compared to the league average (about 56%). This situation, quite unusual for a mid-low table team, was possible mainly because of their pitch which is composed by a particular type of synthetic grass, not really new. Varese's coach Sottili is preparing seasonal debut in Serie B next week and this match could be a distraction more than an opportunity, especially because he seems scared by the possibility of injuries due to the strange pitch. As he did against Vicenza he won't lineup best starting duo Neto Pereira and Lupoli, picking up instead Caetano and Momentè. Varese also will start second string keeper Bastianoni (Bressan is officially 'tired') and defender Spendhofer in place of Ely. Zecchin will be on the bench too. Juve Stabia destroyed Gubbio 3-0 in the last leg and they confirmed the red-hot Diop who will partner Di Carmine on the front. Varese starting 11 won't be the real one and they probably won't play 100% so the above even price for the -0.25 is tasty enough for a try.

[nyyanks773]

This was a great thread last year. Excited for Fiorentina this year! Gonna be a good year!

[Vaughany]

Cagliari should win comfortably against Frosinone as well. Might play them live in play

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Yeah, probably the most exciting Serie A season since ages (on paper).
The champions of Juve, Milan with Balotelli since the start of the year, Napoli and their new asset, Inter with Mazzarri coaching, a new era for Roma (again), the exciting Fiorentina, a solid team like Lazio, the always surprising Udinese, Parma with Cassano...

I probably won't seriously touch serie A this year focusing myself on Serie B and Prima but it will be very exciting to watch anyway!

[Vaughany]

Novara/Sassulo Over 2 goals is also very tempting..two attacking teams

[krimmer2]

two losers from two.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

two losers from two.

One lost and a half to be correct.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Virtus Entella-Como

Sunday, September 01st, 2013 20:30 Football - Ita. Serie C

Pick: 1 ( 1X2) Result: Pending Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.77 Bookmaker: 188bet Entella was the surprising team of Girone A last season and, along with the confirm of core players, mister Prina (again on the bench) build up an even more competitive squad. Chiavari signed solid midfielder Troiano (30/2) from Sassuolo (B), very talented and experienced Ricchiuti (8/0) from Catania (A), Pedrelli (27 caps in Prima Divisione last year) and also central defender Padella (29/1) from Grosseto (B). The team was upgraded on defense, midfield and offense and they probably will be one of the fewest teams which won't lineup a young team in order to get money from the league (max avg. age of the starting 11must be 25.0 years to receive the financial help). Como is a good team but they have to surprise a lot to snatch some points in Chiavari next Sunday.

Frosinone-Ascoli

Sunday, September 01st, 2013 20:30 Football - Ita. Serie C

Pick: 2 (+0.5 AH) Result: Pending Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.95 Bookmaker: SBOBET I agree with the fact Frosinone is a playoff candidate and deserves respect but Ascoli is a relegated team from Serie B with a low profile and usually this type of teams start the season pretty well. They didn't keep the squad which was demoted last season and this is a good move in my opinion: Lega Pro do not need stars to be lined up, but motivated guys who know the league combined with very good youngsters. Ascoli is a good mix of both imho, especially with the latest signings of Pestrin (M), Giacomini (M) and defender Alberto Bianchi (former player of Entella, Spezia and Cremonese with more than 180 caps in Prima Divisione). 1.95 is a good price for a try.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Catanzaro-Viareggio

Today, 20:30 Football - Ita. Serie C

Pick: 2 (+0.5 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.97 Catanzaro at home is constantly overrated despite last season they performed better on the road than in their stadium. Such a difference against an improved Viareggio isn't justified by facts imho.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Virtus Entella - Como 1-0
Frosinone - Ascoli 2-1
Catanzaro - Viareggio 1-1

2W - 1L

+1.48u today. Night!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Cesena - Virtus Lanciano

Tomorrow, 14:59 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: Away +0.5 Stake: 2/10 Odds: 2.08 Bookmaker: PINNACLE I do not like the overhype around Cesena this season in a very competitive Serie B and the fact they won 2 games on 2 at the beginning of the season didn't change my mind. They've defeated Varese at Manuzzi but lombardi disappointed at home the very next match against Modena at home, and the win against a very poor Crotone side (lost 5-2 in the opener) isn't really a proof of anything. In my opinion their winning streak will end sooner than later and tomorrow could be that day. Instead Lanciano got points against a very good looking Avellino and stopped a much respected team like Brescia on the road. Lanciano is the 'king of draws' in Serie B as they split pot 21 times on 42 matches last season (50%!!!) and they're 2/2 this year. In addition both H2H against Cesena finished with a draw in 2012/2013. More than enough to back Lanciano to win or draw at well above than evens.

[Vaughany]

Cesena - Virtus Lanciano

Tomorrow, 14:59 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: Away +0.5 Stake: 2/10 Odds: 2.08 Bookmaker: PINNACLE I do not like the overhype around Cesena this season in a very competitive Serie B and the fact they won 2 games on 2 at the beginning of the season didn't change my mind. They've defeated Varese at Manuzzi but lombardi disappointed at home the very next match against Modena at home, and the win against a very poor Crotone side (lost 5-2 in the opener) isn't really a proof of anything. In my opinion their winning streak will end sooner than later and tomorrow could be that day. Instead Lanciano got points against a very good looking Avellino and stopped a much respected team like Brescia on the road. Lanciano is the 'king of draws' in Serie B as they split pot 21 times on 42 matches last season (50%!!!) and they're 2/2 this year. In addition both H2H against Cesena finished with a draw in 2012/2013. More than enough to back Lanciano to win or draw at well above than evens.

yeah wouldnt be surprised to see a 1-1 type game

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Pro Vercelli-Pro Patria

Today, 20:30 Football - Ita. Serie C

Pick: 2 (+0.75 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 2.00 Bookmaker: SBOBET I have to admit Pro Patria was clear 16th (on 16) in my preseason rankings but they surprised me not collapsing quickly against the best team of the league last Sunday (Cremonese). They played better than expected and probably are better than expected too. Today they'll be in Vercelli to face another promotion candidate but Pro (Patria) vs Pro (Vercelli) isn't a match like anyone else: these two are historical italian teams which dominated football in the early 1900 (Pro Patria played 14 seasons in Serie A and Pro Vercelli won 7 times the 'Scudetto') and, even most important, it's a tight rivalry. In this type of games anything could happen and I do not feel confident about chances of Vercelli to crush away the weaker Pro despite being the better side. I'm pretty confident about the fact it should be a tight game. +0.75 for 'Tigrotti' at even money looks like a gift in my eyes.

[EasyPicks]

This was a great thread last year. Excited for Fiorentina this year! Gonna be a good year!

how good was it (units)?

TSA,

no record tracking?

Gl tonight

[TheSportsAnalyst]

how good was it (units)?

TSA,

no record tracking?

Gl tonight

Check my last season thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-betting/1862054-italian-job.html

Tracking will start after this round.

By the way... Cesena - Lanciano 0-1 with the +0.5 for Lanciano down to 1.75 at the start.
Anyone surpised? Not me...

1-0 +2.16u for the afternoon, waiting Pro vs Pro matchup tonight.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

So far

Coppa Italia: 0 W 0.5 P 1.5 L
-3 units / 3 staked

Serie B: 1 W 0 P 0 L
+2.16 units / 2 staked

Lega Pro Prima Divisione: 2 W 0 P 1 L
+1.48 units / 6 staked


GL to you EasyPicks!

[Vaughany]

Damnn, didnt get a chance to place any bets as was out all day. Was gonna play Reggina PK, and Palermo PK. Just got in and see Palermo are 2-0 up at half time

Nice hit on Lanciano... Cesena over-rated for sure

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Pro Vercelli-Pro Patria

Today, 20:30 Football - Ita. Serie C

Pick: 2 (+0.75 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 2.00 Bookmaker: SBOBET I have to admit Pro Patria was clear 16th (on 16) in my preseason rankings but they surprised me not collapsing quickly against the best team of the league last Sunday (Cremonese). They played better than expected and probably are better than expected too. Today they'll be in Vercelli to face another promotion candidate but Pro (Patria) vs Pro (Vercelli) isn't a match like anyone else: these two are historical italian teams which dominated football in the early 1900 (Pro Patria played 14 seasons in Serie A and Pro Vercelli won 7 times the 'Scudetto') and, even most important, it's a tight rivalry. In this type of games anything could happen and I do not feel confident about chances of Vercelli to crush away the weaker Pro despite being the better side. I'm pretty confident about the fact it should be a tight game. +0.75 for 'Tigrotti' at even money looks like a gift in my eyes.

It was tight but Pro Vercelli did it with a simple 1-0.

Closing with a 1 W - 0.5 P - 0.5 L for a +1.16 units today. Not bad.

[onemoregoal]

Nice write ups.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Varese-Pescara

Saturday, September 14th, 2013 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: 1 (0 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.83 Bookmaker: Dafabet Saw these odds this afternoon and I absolutely had to take the price because I do not think this will last very long. Varese is coming off a very good performance (won 3-0 on the road against Latina) and the team is looking better after the really unlucky defeat in Cesena (own goal) and the home draw against Modena. Pavoletti, one of the most exciting transfers this summer, scored for the first time and it's good for a striker in a new team to start early scoring goals. Varese, absolutely not weakened if compared to the last season, lost just 5 times at home during 2012/2013 campaign and the draw no bet option is very tasty at this price. Pescara is for sure a good opponent but Varese have something to prove this year and they will use domestic turf to rack up as many points as possible.

Cittadella-Latina

Saturday, September 14th, 2013 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: 2 (+0.5 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.86 Bookmaker: 188bet Moving early also on this one because big changes for Latina are expected in the next few hours. 'Neroblù' made an extraordinary transfer campaing bringing in almost two dozens of new players but most of them arrived just approaching the start of the season. Quality is for sure on their side but Auteri (Latina trainer) had no time to create a decent team and Latina got just 1 point in three matches conceding too many goals. Ambitious Latina's board is planning to demote Auteri since Sunday afternoon but no announcement has been made yet despite it's clear they've no more confidence on the trainer (they're interviewing some other very good candidates). An old said advises to not play against a team which recently changed coach and this could be Latina situation next Sunday: with a new trainer sitting on the bench good players they already have could find extra motivation to play even if the team... isn't really a team yet. Cittadella isn't on another level and a draw should definitely be in the realm of possibilities.

[Vaughany]

ye may have to play Varese PK too after seeing how bad Pescara were defensively against Trapani blowing their lead twice due to defensive errors, then go and concede two at home to an average Crotone side that have lost all their best players from last season (Migliore, Eramo, Maiello, Calil, & Denilson)! As you say, Varese are very hard to beat at home, and 3 out of the 5 sides that beat them at the Fraco Ossola were the 3 that got promoted (Sassulo, Livorno, and Verona), and one of the other losses was against Novara when then were on their great run towards end of season and beating everybody!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Varese won 3-2
Latina snatched a 0-0 on the road

2-0 and +3.38u

Third straight profitable weekend and clean sweep on Serie B so far.
A good start of the season.

Cheers!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Reggina - Novara

Saturday, September 21st, 2013 14:59 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: Away 0 Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.98 Bookmaker: PINNACLE Reggina was literally destroyed by Trapani just a few days ago and what is scarying the most calabresi fans is Atzori (coach) speech at the end of that game: "we're not a team, yet" he said "we can't handle some situations at this time of the year, we've just started". Facing Novara, even at home, isn't exactly a good fit for them at the moment and they're the typical team which could create those 'situations' (like a quick goal in the first half) Atzori do not like to face with his pretty below par squad. Novara is currently one of the favourites to reach playoff and to fight for Serie A next May/June not scintillating but damn solid and with a couple of very good results (like the home win against Siena) already in their bag. Can't see an even game like odds suggest here so even if slightly my confidence goes to the away team.

Empoli-Padova

Saturday, September 21st, 2013 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: 1 (-0.75 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.83 Bookmaker: SBOBET Well, I'm probably late on this one but a shot must be taken considering Empoli's recent form. Toscani are the lone leader of this extremely tight Serie B and Padova is the backmarker of the field with 0 points. In the last years Empoli confirmed themselves as one of the most solid clubs in Serie B, lining-up teams typically full of very good youngsters (Empoli U20 is 2nd in their 'Primavera' group and they barely lost against Juventus in Turin) and playing without any external pressure. That's probably the key for Empoli success on staying at a very good level for such a long time despite a med/low budget and a very small market town (less than 50,000 inhabitants). Last year they've lost playoff final against a stronger Livorno team fighting very well and this season a lot of players came back to made the team solid enough to start strongly in September as usual. Maccarone-Tavano is a tasty duo upfront but as they demonstrate last Saturday against Carpi everyone in the team can score and they could be a dangerous outsider for Serie A candidates. Padova is 0/3 right now and they've yet to score their first goal this season (they conceded 6). Too simple to be true? Maybe, but playing against Empoli at home against a suffering team right now is crazy at least.

[Vaughany]

Yeah Empoli game seems too good to be true! They have struggled to beat Padova in past if I remember correctly, but this Padova side is weaker than previous seasons after losing Farias, Cutolo, Ze Eduardo, De Vitis, Obiora. I might hold off and watch it then bet live on Empoli if they are in control and dominating.

I don't like betting against Reggina at home where they tend to raise their game, but Novara have always been one of my favourites to back in Serie B! Also, although they did get spanked by Trapani which is worrying, they didnt seem to play some of their best players from start like Strasser, Ipsa, Colucci, Di Michele from the start. Seems they are going to rely on home form again this season to keep them up. They've won 2 drawn 1 lost 0 in past against Novara as well. As you're playing dnb tho you should be ok, probably be a draw at worse

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Brescia-Crotone

Today, 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: 1 (-0.75 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.93 Bookmaker: 188bet Brescia have yet to find their first home win this season and this match could be the perfect fit for this need: Crotone is always erratic away from home and after a good win at home like the one gained last Saturday against Spezia they could travel to the North not totally focused. Rondinelle are a very tough team to face on their own turf as they usually lost just 3/4 games per season at home, scoring more than 1.5 goals on average. They're one of the main pretenders for a playoff spot but they're already under the focus because of their coach Marco Giampaolo who's considered by many not a really good trainer. Despite his questioned (and questionable) abilities I'm pretty sure Giampaolo will inspire his team at full to gain this waited first home win: another draw should open the gates to everything...

[edabramov]

Are you "InsideItaly", you have a blog where you write this up?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Are you "InsideItaly", you have a blog where you write this up?

Yep.

Pro Vercelli-Feralpisalo

Today, 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie C

Pick: 2 (+1 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.96 Bookmaker: SBOBET I saw Pro Vercelli match against Reggiana last Sunday and they're definitely a more than good team but definitely not scintillating. They created a few chances and they retain a good strike rate % converting shots to goals scored but they're far from perfect and they rarely score a lot. Feralpi is a decent squad trained by a very respected coach at this level like former player Beppe Scienza and they've already learnt the lesson one week ago against Lumezzane losing badly so they'll be more focused and prepared than ever today. Pinardi is in the 18 men final list despite not at 100%. I like Salò chances to get some points in Vercelli today and I for sure do not like backing Pro with a full goal of handicap to clear.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

2 wins, 1 loss and a push for a +1.58u of profit.

Thread in the money for the fourth straight weekend. Cheers!

[Vaughany]

Brescia-Crotone

Today, 15:00 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: 1 (-0.75 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 1.93 Bookmaker: 188bet Brescia have yet to find their first home win this season and this match could be the perfect fit for this need: Crotone is always erratic away from home and after a good win at home like the one gained last Saturday against Spezia they could travel to the North not totally focused. Rondinelle are a very tough team to face on their own turf as they usually lost just 3/4 games per season at home, scoring more than 1.5 goals on average. They're one of the main pretenders for a playoff spot but they're already under the focus because of their coach Marco Giampaolo who's considered by many not a really good trainer. Despite his questioned (and questionable) abilities I'm pretty sure Giampaolo will inspire his team at full to gain this waited first home win: another draw should open the gates to everything...

Did you see this game? Did it look fixed? This group on facebook "safe bet" recommended Crotone ht/ft at 9.5 odds...

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Probably.

Take a look at Crotone goals.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Giampaolo, coach of Brescia, is missing since that match.

Phone is off and nobody knows when and if he'll pop up again.... Mmmmmh.

[V4Value]

You have to count out the average fixed games when taking that in consideration, specially in seria B & C. Not to talk about what is also happening in some eastern european leagues or asian ones. I've had friends who played in seria C and I've heard enough stories.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Bari-Palermo

Today, 20:30 Football - Ita. Serie B

Pick: 2 (-0.25 AH) Stake: 2/10 Odds: 2.02 Bookmaker: SBOBET Biggest matchup for the 6. matchday of Serie B. Palermo owner Zamparini is well known for his low patience and considering his history it's pretty remarkable he left so much time to Gattuso (who's just 2W - 1D - 2L and out of the playoff zone despite training a team which at the start of the season was considered the clear fav to win the division). But love-stories don't last forever, especially if Zamparini is involved, so it's normal to think Gattuso future will be heavily involved in this week two matches (tonight big one and next Sat at 'Barbera' against Juve Stabia). It's not a surprise (at least to me) that this Palermo is struggling more at home than on the road and that's because of the huge pressure a city like Palermo put on the field. To avoid a win-or-die type of game against Juve Stabia Gattuso and his team have to snatch points from Bari tonight and despite opposite situation (Bari in very good form, Palermo still far from 100%) the away team gets the nod as I'm sure Palermo players will put all on the field. It's also Perinetti (Palermo director of football) 'homecoming' (he operated in Bari a few seasons with a promotion to Serie A) and this is a huge addiction to make this matchup even more interesting. Don't be fooled by the low odds, I know that betting on road favs is like to hug a kamikaze especially in a tough Serie B league but on paper there's absolutely no match between these two squads: Sorrentino is a mid-table Serie A keeper, Munoz an Terzi combined have almost 200 caps in Serie A, Morganella and Daprelà are probably the best wingback duo in the league despite they're really young, captain Edgar Barreto is a superstar at this level, Bolzoni will probably be a top player in a few years and Abel Hernandez is clicking at a terrific strike rate (4 goals in 4 matches so far). If Palermo will play with 'eyes of the tiger' like Gattuso said in press conference I think they won't lose this game, having more than a chance of winning it.

[Vaughany]

bad luck, Gattuso getting the boot me thinks!