KATCHASE's Soccer Unders Project

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  • KATCHASE
    SBR MVP
    • 01-06-10
    • 1755

    #36
    - Adding Ireland and England games

    Friday, May 3:

    CZECH GAMBRINUS LIGA
    JIHLAVA VS. DUKLA PRAGUE - Under 2.5 @ 1.78 (2.57 units to win 2 units)

    SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
    ANGELHOLMS VS. SUNDSVALL - Under 2.5 @ 1.97 (1.03 units to win 1 unit)

    IRELAND DIVISION 1
    DROGHEDA VS. BOHEMIANS - Under 2.5 @ 1.83 (1.21 units to win 1 unit)

    ENGLAND LEAGUE 1
    SHEFFIELD UNITED VS. YEOVIL TOWN - Under 2.5 @ 1.74 (2.71 units to win 2 units)
    Comment
    • KATCHASE
      SBR MVP
      • 01-06-10
      • 1755

      #37
      I'm going to keep track of my high risk "Under 3.5 Goals" model results separately...

      Friday, May 3 (Under 3.5 Goals):

      IRELAND PREMIER LEAGUE
      SHAMROCK VS. SLIGO - Under 3.5 @ 1.22 (4.55 units to win 1 unit)
      Comment
      • KATCHASE
        SBR MVP
        • 01-06-10
        • 1755

        #38
        Friday Results:

        Standard Plays: 3-0-1 (+3.79 units)
        Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 1-0 (+1 unit)

        Originally posted by KATCHASE

        Friday, May 3:

        CZECH GAMBRINUS LIGA
        JIHLAVA VS. DUKLA PRAGUE - Under 2.5 @ 1.78 (2.57 units to win 2 units)

        SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
        ANGELHOLMS VS. SUNDSVALL - Under 2.5 @ 1.97 (1.03 units to win 1 unit)

        IRELAND DIVISION 1
        DROGHEDA VS. BOHEMIANS - Under 2.5 @ 1.83 (1.21 units to win 1 unit)

        ENGLAND LEAGUE 1
        SHEFFIELD UNITED VS. YEOVIL TOWN - Under 2.5 @ 1.74 (2.71 units to win 2 units)
        Originally posted by KATCHASE

        Friday, May 3 (Under 3.5 Goals):

        IRELAND PREMIER LEAGUE
        SHAMROCK VS. SLIGO - Under 3.5 @ 1.22 (4.55 units to win 1 unit)
        Record (Standard Plays): 22-0-15 (+6.19 units)
        1 Unit Plays: 11-0-9 (-0.24 units)
        2 Unit Plays: 11-0-6 (+6.43 units)

        Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 1-0 (+1 unit)
        Comment
        • stemellor
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 03-22-13
          • 631

          #39
          Nice work again. Your 2 unit plays are looking really solid.
          Comment
          • SlowNsteady
            SBR MVP
            • 12-03-09
            • 2189

            #40
            You are a machine. Thx for the cash
            Comment
            • KATCHASE
              SBR MVP
              • 01-06-10
              • 1755

              #41
              Originally posted by stemellor
              Nice work again. Your 2 unit plays are looking really solid.
              Originally posted by SlowNsteady
              You are a machine. Thx for the cash
              Thanks guys...And best of luck with your weekend plays.
              Comment
              • KATCHASE
                SBR MVP
                • 01-06-10
                • 1755

                #42
                Monday, May 6:

                JAPAN J-LEAGUE
                OMIYA ARDIJA VS. HIROSHIMA - Under 2.5 @ 1.79 (2.53 units to win 2 units)

                SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
                ​VARNAMO VS. BRAGE - Under 2.5 @ 1.82 (1.22 units to win 1 unit)
                Comment
                • KATCHASE
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-06-10
                  • 1755

                  #43
                  Monday, May 6 (Under 3.5 Goals):

                  JAPAN J-LEAGUE DIVISION 2
                  EHIME VS. TOCHIGI - Under 3.5 @ 1.15 (6.67 units to win 1 unit)

                  RUSSIA DIVISION 1
                  MET. KUZBASS VS. BALTIKA - Under 3.5 @ 1.25 (4 units to win 1 unit)

                  ARGENTINA PRIMERA DIVISION
                  ​ALL BOYS VS. ESTUDIANTES L.P. - Under 3.5 @ 1.17 (5.88 units to win 1 unit)
                  Comment
                  • KATCHASE
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-06-10
                    • 1755

                    #44
                    - Adding Oita game

                    Monday, May 6:

                    JAPAN J-LEAGUE
                    OMIYA ARDIJA VS. HIROSHIMA - Under 2.5 @ 1.79 (2.53 units to win 2 units)

                    SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
                    ​VARNAMO VS. BRAGE - Under 2.5 @ 1.82 (1.22 units to win 1 unit)

                    JAPAN J-LEAGUE
                    OITA VS. TOSU - Under 2.5 @ 1.89 (1.13 units to win 1 unit)
                    Comment
                    • KATCHASE
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-06-10
                      • 1755

                      #45
                      Monday Results:

                      Standard Plays: 0-0-3 (-4.88 units)
                      Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 2-1 (-2 units)

                      Originally posted by KATCHASE

                      Monday, May 6:

                      JAPAN J-LEAGUE
                      OMIYA ARDIJA VS. HIROSHIMA - Under 2.5 @ 1.79 (2.53 units to win 2 units)

                      SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
                      ​VARNAMO VS. BRAGE - Under 2.5 @ 1.82 (1.22 units to win 1 unit)

                      JAPAN J-LEAGUE
                      OITA VS. TOSU - Under 2.5 @ 1.89 (1.13 units to win 1 unit
                      Originally posted by KATCHASE
                      Monday, May 6 (Under 3.5 Goals):

                      JAPAN J-LEAGUE DIVISION 2
                      EHIME VS. TOCHIGI - Under 3.5 @ 1.15 (6.67 units to win 1 unit)

                      RUSSIA DIVISION 1
                      MET. KUZBASS VS. BALTIKA - Under 3.5 @ 1.25 (4 units to win 1 unit)

                      ARGENTINA PRIMERA DIVISION
                      ​ALL BOYS VS. ESTUDIANTES L.P. - Under 3.5 @ 1.17 (5.88 units to win 1 unit)

                      Record (Standard Plays): 22-0-18 (+1.31 units)
                      1 Unit Plays: 11-0-11 (-2.59 units)
                      2 Unit Plays: 11-0-7 (+3.9 units)

                      Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 3-1 (-1unit)
                      Comment
                      • stemellor
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 03-22-13
                        • 631

                        #46
                        I think everyone had a bad day yesterday. Tweak the system and come back stronger.
                        Comment
                        • KATCHASE
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-06-10
                          • 1755

                          #47
                          Originally posted by stemellor
                          I think everyone had a bad day yesterday. Tweak the system and come back stronger.
                          Wow, I certainly wasn't expecting that comment today. Thank you.

                          You know, it's so encouraging to see positive results when you are testing out a new system, but a day like yesterday seems about a hundred times as discouraging. Two of my standard play games ended 2-1 with the final goals in the 84' and 87' minute, so I'm hoping it was just an unlucky day.

                          I don't believe I have any qualifying games today, but I'll be back to the grind tomorrow.

                          Good luck!
                          Comment
                          • stemellor
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 03-22-13
                            • 631

                            #48
                            Originally posted by KATCHASE
                            Wow, I certainly wasn't expecting that comment today. Thank you.

                            You know, it's so encouraging to see positive results when you are testing out a new system, but a day like yesterday seems about a hundred times as discouraging. Two of my standard play games ended 2-1 with the final goals in the 84' and 87' minute, so I'm hoping it was just an unlucky day.

                            I don't believe I have any qualifying games today, but I'll be back to the grind tomorrow.

                            Good luck!
                            I genuinely think you have a decent system. Your 2 unit plays seem the strongest though. The u3.5 goals seem risky though because of the large outlay. Like yesterday, you only need 1 loss to ruin your day. That's the tweaking. Find your strongest area and concentrate your efforts on that.
                            Comment
                            • KATCHASE
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-06-10
                              • 1755

                              #49
                              I agree with you about my 2 unit plays being the strongest, but believe it or not I really think the under 3.5's have potential. Every day, I use specific ceiteria to narrow down the day's games to between 3 to 15 possible under 3.5 plays. I've been tracking the results of these games for almost two weeks now and they are hitting at a rate of 94.1% - that's about 1 loss in every 17 games. Right now I'm working on further criertia such as H2H data and defense/offense strengths to narrow down these games further to 1-3 plays per day to make them feasible to play and with some luck, extend the winning streaks.

                              Now, I only have 51 weekday games meeting my under 3.5's criteria tracked (48 wins-3 losses...+33.34 units), and I've been doing this long enough to know that's not anywhere near enough data, but I thought I would start posting my narrowed down selections for honest tracking. I'm also playing these games right now for fun and for very small units. We'll See how things go...
                              Comment
                              • zizoudane10
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 03-27-12
                                • 7272

                                #50
                                Think the under 3.5 might be well worth a shot today in the Roma - Chievo game, don't think it will end up with an easy blowout win. (I decided to play another bet instead though)
                                Comment
                                • swordsandtequila
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-23-12
                                  • 9757

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by zizoudane10
                                  Think the under 3.5 might be well worth a shot today in the Roma - Chievo game, don't think it will end up with an easy blowout win. (I decided to play another bet instead though)
                                  Considered doing the same; don't understand the line. Recent form suggests under, yet the only options at 5Dimes are over/under 3.5 or 3/3.5.
                                  Comment
                                  • KATCHASE
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-06-10
                                    • 1755

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by zizoudane10
                                    Think the under 3.5 might be well worth a shot today in the Roma - Chievo game, don't think it will end up with an easy blowout win. (I decided to play another bet instead though)
                                    I agree with you about the easy win and that's what makes me a little leery about the under 3.5 for this match...plus the fact that 52.9% of Roma's home games have gone over 3.5 goals. Given that Chievo's away games only gone over 3.5 goals about 35% of the time, their defense could slow Roma down but this game is a little too risky for me.
                                    Comment
                                    • zizoudane10
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-27-12
                                      • 7272

                                      #53
                                      Of course, if I would LOVE this bet I would have bet it myself. Too scared in this game though. But a 2:0 f.e. def. wouldn't surprise me. Chievo has a good defense, they are def capable of slowing down Romas offense on a good day.
                                      Comment
                                      • KATCHASE
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-06-10
                                        • 1755

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by zizoudane10
                                        Think the under 3.5 might be well worth a shot today in the Roma - Chievo game, don't think it will end up with an easy blowout win. (I decided to play another bet instead though)
                                        Nice call on the under Z
                                        Comment
                                        • KATCHASE
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-06-10
                                          • 1755

                                          #55
                                          Wednesday, May 8:

                                          FRANCE - FRENCH CUP
                                          EVIAN VS. LORIENT - Under 2.5 @ 1.77 (2.6 units to win 2 units)

                                          ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                          ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 3.5 @ 1.16 (6.25 units to win 1 unit)
                                          Comment
                                          • KATCHASE
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-06-10
                                            • 1755

                                            #56
                                            - Adding Almirante Brown - Under 2

                                            Wednesday, May 8:

                                            FRANCE - FRENCH CUP
                                            EVIAN VS. LORIENT - Under 2.5 @ 1.77 (2.6 units to win 2 units)

                                            ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                            ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 3.5 @ 1.16 (6.25 units to win 1 unit)

                                            ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                            ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 2 @ 1.8 (2.5 units to win 2 unit)
                                            Comment
                                            • BrianKay
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 10-20-12
                                              • 203

                                              #57
                                              It is always so frustrating to know that the french games should stay under, but then to lose your bet so early. I tailed the play so misery loves company.
                                              Comment
                                              • KATCHASE
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-06-10
                                                • 1755

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by BrianKay
                                                It is always so frustrating to know that the french games should stay under, but then to lose your bet so early. I tailed the play so misery loves company.
                                                Damn...of course Evian decides today is the day to put on a show...they score more goals today than their last four games combined!
                                                Comment
                                                • stemellor
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 03-22-13
                                                  • 631

                                                  #59
                                                  Looks like you turned a profit today though
                                                  Comment
                                                  • KATCHASE
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-06-10
                                                    • 1755

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by stemellor
                                                    Looks like you turned a profit today though
                                                    Yes, albeit a small one. But the day might not be over for me though. I may have one more late game.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • KATCHASE
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-06-10
                                                      • 1755

                                                      #61
                                                      - Adding Dallas/Portland game

                                                      Wednesday, May 8:

                                                      FRANCE - FRENCH CUP
                                                      EVIAN VS. LORIENT - Under 2.5 @ 1.77 (2.6 units to win 2 units)

                                                      ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                                      ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 3.5 @ 1.16 (6.25 units to win 1 unit)

                                                      ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                                      ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 2 @ 1.8 (2.5 units to win 2 unit)

                                                      USA - MLS
                                                      DALLAS VS. PORTLAND - Under 2.5 @ 1.86 (2.33 units to win 2 units)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • KATCHASE
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-06-10
                                                        • 1755

                                                        #62
                                                        I have to admit that I sure was sweating those last 20 minutes or so of the Dallas/Portland game when Dallas scored at the 71' and then Portland answered right back at the 77'. But the game held, (along with my breath), to end in a 1-1 draw.


                                                        Wednesday Results:

                                                        Standard Plays: 2-0-1 (+1.4 units)
                                                        Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 1-0 (+1 unit)

                                                        Originally posted by KATCHASE

                                                        Wednesday, May 8:

                                                        FRANCE - FRENCH CUP
                                                        EVIAN VS. LORIENT - Under 2.5 @ 1.77 (2.6 units to win 2 units)


                                                        ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                                        ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 3.5 @ 1.16 (6.25 units to win 1 unit)

                                                        ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                                        ALMIRANTE BROWN VS. BOCA UNIDOS - Under 2 @ 1.8 (2.5 units to win 2 unit)

                                                        USA - MLS
                                                        DALLAS VS. PORTLAND - Under 2.5 @ 1.86 (2.33 units to win 2 units)

                                                        Record (Standard Plays): 22-0-18 (+2.71 units)
                                                        1 Unit Plays: 11-0-11 (-2.59 units)
                                                        2 Unit Plays: 13-0-8 (+5.3 units)

                                                        Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 4-1 (+1 unit)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stemellor
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 03-22-13
                                                          • 631

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by KATCHASE
                                                          I have to admit that I sure was sweating those last 20 minutes or so of the Dallas/Portland game when Dallas scored at the 71' and then Portland answered right back at the 77'. But the game held, (along with my breath), to end in a 1-1 draw.


                                                          Wednesday Results:

                                                          Standard Plays: 2-0-1 (+1.4 units)
                                                          Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 1-0 (+1 unit)




                                                          Record (Standard Plays): 22-0-18 (+2.71 units)
                                                          1 Unit Plays: 11-0-11 (-2.59 units)
                                                          2 Unit Plays: 13-0-8 (+5.3 units)

                                                          Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 4-1 (+1 unit)
                                                          2 units doing the business again for you. Very good day in the end.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • KATCHASE
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-06-10
                                                            • 1755

                                                            #64
                                                            Thursday, May 9:

                                                            DENMARK LANDSPOKAL CUP
                                                            RANDERS FC VS. ESBJERG - Under 3.5 @ 1.25 (4 units to win 1 unit)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • KATCHASE
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-06-10
                                                              • 1755

                                                              #65
                                                              - Adding 2 Norway games

                                                              Thursday, May 9:

                                                              DENMARK LANDSPOKAL CUP
                                                              RANDERS FC VS. ESBJERG - Under 3.5 @ 1.25 (4 units to win 1 unit)

                                                              NORWAY ADECCOLIGAEN
                                                              FOLLO VS. STABAEK - Under 3 @ 1.66 (1.52 units to win 1 unit)

                                                              NORWAY ADECCOLIGAEN
                                                              HODD VS. KONGSVINGER - Under 3 @ 1.77 (1.3 units to win 1 unit)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • KATCHASE
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-06-10
                                                                • 1755

                                                                #66
                                                                Thursday Results:

                                                                Standard Plays: 1-0-1 (-0.52 units)
                                                                Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 1-0 (+1 unit)

                                                                Originally posted by KATCHASE

                                                                Thursday, May 9:

                                                                DENMARK LANDSPOKAL CUP
                                                                RANDERS FC VS. ESBJERG - Under 3.5 @ 1.25 (4 units to win 1 unit)

                                                                NORWAY ADECCOLIGAEN
                                                                FOLLO VS. STABAEK - Under 3 @ 1.66 (1.52 units to win 1 unit)

                                                                NORWAY ADECCOLIGAEN
                                                                HODD VS. KONGSVINGER - Under 3 @ 1.77 (1.3 units to win 1 unit)
                                                                Record (Standard Plays): 23-0-19 (+2.19 units)
                                                                1 Unit Plays: 12-0-12 (-3.11 units)
                                                                2 Unit Plays: 13-0-8 (+5.3 units)

                                                                Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 5-1 (+2 units)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • KATCHASE
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-06-10
                                                                  • 1755

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Friday, May 10:

                                                                  ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                                                  DEP. MERLI VS. FERRO - Under 3.5 @ 1.15 (6.67 units to win 1 unit)

                                                                  MOROCCO BOTOLA
                                                                  MOGHREB TETOUAN VS. OLYMPIQUE KHOURIBGA - Under 3.5 @ 1.15 (6.67 units to win 1 unit)

                                                                  *3 TEAM PARLAY @ 1.55 (1.82 units to win 1 unit):
                                                                  ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                                                  DEP. MERLI VS. FERRO - Under 3.5 @ 1.15
                                                                  +
                                                                  MOROCCO BOTOLA
                                                                  MOGHREB TETOUAN VS. OLYMPIQUE KHOURIBGA - Under 3.5 @ 1.15
                                                                  +
                                                                  ARGENTINA PRIMERA DIVISION - TORNEO FINAL
                                                                  BELGRANO VS. ATL. RAFAELA - Under 3.5 @ 1.17
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • KATCHASE
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-06-10
                                                                    • 1755

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Two down...now one more to go for the parlay...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • KATCHASE
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-06-10
                                                                      • 1755

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Good day on Friday with the under 3.5's...

                                                                      Friday Results:

                                                                      Standard Plays: 0-0-0 (0 units)
                                                                      Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 3-0 (+3 units)


                                                                      Originally posted by KATCHASE
                                                                      Friday, May 10:

                                                                      ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                                                      DEP. MERLI VS. FERRO - Under 3.5 @ 1.15 (6.67 units to win 1 unit)

                                                                      MOROCCO BOTOLA
                                                                      MOGHREB TETOUAN VS. OLYMPIQUE KHOURIBGA - Under 3.5 @ 1.15 (6.67 units to win 1 unit)

                                                                      *3 TEAM PARLAY @ 1.55 (1.82 units to win 1 unit):
                                                                      ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
                                                                      DEP. MERLI VS. FERRO - Under 3.5 @ 1.15
                                                                      +
                                                                      MOROCCO BOTOLA
                                                                      MOGHREB TETOUAN VS. OLYMPIQUE KHOURIBGA - Under 3.5 @ 1.15
                                                                      +
                                                                      ARGENTINA PRIMERA DIVISION - TORNEO FINAL
                                                                      BELGRANO VS. ATL. RAFAELA - Under 3.5 @ 1.17
                                                                      Record (Standard Plays): 23-0-19 (+2.19 units)
                                                                      1 Unit Plays: 12-0-12 (-3.11 units)
                                                                      2 Unit Plays: 13-0-8 (+5.3 units)

                                                                      Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 8-1 (+5 units)
                                                                      1 Unit Plays: 7-1 (+4 units)
                                                                      Parlays: 1-0 (+1 unit)
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • stemellor
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 03-22-13
                                                                        • 631

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Originally posted by KATCHASE
                                                                        Good day on Friday with the under 3.5's...

                                                                        Friday Results:

                                                                        Standard Plays: 0-0-0 (0 units)
                                                                        Under 3.5 Goal Plays: 3-0 (+3 units)




                                                                        Record (Standard Plays): 23-0-19 (+2.19 units)
                                                                        1 Unit Plays: 12-0-12 (-3.11 units)
                                                                        2 Unit Plays: 13-0-8 (+5.3 units)

                                                                        Record (Under 3.5 Goal Plays): 8-1 (+5 units)
                                                                        1 Unit Plays: 7-1 (+4 units)
                                                                        Parlays: 1-0 (+1 unit)
                                                                        Looks like you were right about those u3.5 plays. +5 is very healthy
                                                                        Comment
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