The SAD Math behind Sportsbetting......why u usually will always lose long term

[winkyyy]

At the standard -110......


The Book is getting +110 on EVERY Dollar u wager....EVERY COIN FLIP +110

SO TELL ME.....how can u possibly win after say 100 wagers...


If I flip a coin 1000 x and when I win I get -110 but when u win u get +110


it is mathematically impossible for me to win....U will always WIN






SO...what is it about sportsbettors....Do they think they really have ANY CHANCE????



00000000000000 NO shot. all smoke and mirrors....



My advice........********** all your bets and quit......NOW



If I can get +110 on all bets.....I will slaughter you....


SO...QUIT giving the books your money.....it is a fools errand.



Sorry..I had to burst your Gambling Bubble......but u are looking at LOST MONEY



Screw all the books...with their rigged up casinos....and rules and regs....



F**** EM ALL.

[Sanity Check]

Most hedge fund managers fail to achieve 5% in gains, annually.

5% gains is one bet with -2000.

Whatever issues people have with sports gambling, shortage of odds isn't it.

[StackinGreen]

For an overwhelming majority, yes, it's a coin flip, and to be honest for them it's at best a coin flip, likely worse. But for a small minority it isn't a coin flip at all.

The issue you are really talking about is one similar to the Dunning Kruger effect. People aren't good at critical thinking, math or paying attention over longer periods of time. Notice that this is what politics takes advantage of as well.

[turbobets]

winkyyy channeling his inner jjgold.

[pologq]

the "edge" is when you study and/or hope you have info that makes you find value in a price. hard for most, including me. there are a lot on here good at finding value.

[habitualwinning]

Nobody on here wins long-term. If they did everybody would just tail them. I've seen a couple people win short-term. LTprofits and samsncharge. Both verified in threads but even they have had losing seasons before. Nothing is guaranteed. The longer someone bets the more likely they are to lose due to juice and fixed games. Those two things get everyone in the long-run. Only way to win is cheat. Bonus whore, count cards in BJ, know someone on the inside that fixes, shaves pts etc. Better to quit while up and never look back. I'm done gambling.

All I do now is cash in my comps that the local casinos send me. It's free $$$ and it reminds me why I quit seeing everyone else lose big while I'm there. Somebody has to pay that high electric bill for all those flashy lights and exuberant Ceo salaries at the casinos/books. There's a sucker that walks in every minute that thinks they can beat a game where the odds say they can't. They'll keep trying til the end of society and keep losing in the process. It's a sickness no different than being addicted to drugs. Save yourselves. Find productive hobbies. Gambling is for losers and addicts.

[d2bets]

At the standard -110......


The Book is getting +110 on EVERY Dollar u wager....EVERY COIN FLIP +110

SO TELL ME.....how can u possibly win after say 100 wagers...


If I flip a coin 1000 x and when I win I get -110 but when u win u get +110


it is mathematically impossible for me to win....U will always WIN






SO...what is it about sportsbettors....Do they think they really have ANY CHANCE????



00000000000000 NO shot. all smoke and mirrors....



My advice........********** all your bets and quit......NOW



If I can get +110 on all bets.....I will slaughter you....


SO...QUIT giving the books your money.....it is a fools errand.



Sorry..I had to burst your Gambling Bubble......but u are looking at LOST MONEY



Screw all the books...with their rigged up casinos....and rules and regs....



F**** EM ALL.

The difference is that the sports wager is not a coin flip.

The odds are set by humans and they are dynamic. What is -110 can be -150 in the next minute. You have to successfully identify odds that are mispriced - you must exploit market inefficiencies, that certainly do exist. It is not impossible, but if you don't see how it's not impossible then it certainly is impossible for you and you should quit.

You must explot

[PAULYPOKER]

Lol......Why was this thread salooned?

[winkyyy]

Habitualwinning is 100 % spot on....

and d2bets has a point....you may find a game here or there that is off but ...do u have the balls to drop $2k 5K 10k

on the game...or just watch....

Also...alot of guys "post" winners.....but probably donot even bet....

If u flip a coin 100 x heads just very well come out 70x....in 1 session...


The posters of these "hot" plays may have a winning season...but after 5 or 6 A Loser...


just like ALL the sportsbettors and Horseplayers.......

Maybe Jim Walter and a few out of a few Million....

and Jim is in Jail because of Mickelson...

[winkyyy]

I know a guy that always picks winners when he doesnt bet on them

it is scary....

So I started betting his picks....and guess what...All Losers...


as soon as I stopped they started winning again.


Gambling.....good game to quit.....if we could


we are all dengens that crave the action fix...





down 1700 on sportsbetting last month..after being ahead $500


The horses are the freakin worst....they deduct 30% every F**** race


I saw one race at Keeneland 4 FAVS 2-1 2-1 5/2 3-1 and there were 3 other horses in the race!


just with 4 horses the TRUE odds should be 3-1 on each horse..so u know they are really Robbing U

[BigDofBA]

I'm sure some people win. They aren't here though.

You're better off just casually browsing the boards and playing the opposite any time someone says "lock"...."hammer this game"....etc.

You really don't even need to watch the game. I feel like fading wins like 70% of the time...it's like voodoo magic.

[d2bets]

I'm sure some people win. They aren't here though.

You're better off just casually browsing the boards and playing the opposite any time someone says "lock"...."hammer this game"....etc.

You really don't even need to watch the game. I feel like fading wins like 70% of the time...it's like voodoo magic.

False.

[SimpleJack]

Habitualwinning is 100 % spot on....

and d2bets has a point....you may find a game here or there that is off but ...do u have the balls to drop $2k 5K 10k

on the game...or just watch....

Also...alot of guys "post" winners.....but probably donot even bet....

If u flip a coin 100 x heads just very well come out 70x....in 1 session...


The posters of these "hot" plays may have a winning season...but after 5 or 6 A Loser...


just like ALL the sportsbettors and Horseplayers.......

Maybe Jim Walter and a few out of a few Million....

and Jim is in Jail because of Mickelson...

Billy got out of jail. You're think of his brother Jim. He's a hairdresser.

[Sanity Check]

Nobody on here wins long-term.

Habitualwinning is 100 % spot on....

How is it.

Those who know the least about math and gambling ^.

Are usually the most desperate to pretend they know things.

...


The empty can rattles the most'.

[dlowilly]

Ur oversimplifying it. Don't underestimate line shopping either. But yeah very few people are going to make a noticeable profit in the long run betting spreads and totals unless they have insider info before books or something.

[Sanity Check]

Don't underestimate line shopping either.

"Line shopping."


I can't emphasize this enough:

FUKK LINE SHOPPING!!!




"Very few are going to make a noticeable profit in the long run..."

[dlowilly]

"Line shopping."


I can't emphasize this enough:

FUKK LINE SHOPPING!!!




"Very few are going to make a noticeable profit in the long run..."

I take it you disagree

I wasn't even replying to you, I was replying to the OP. I would have quoted you if I was replying to your post.

[KVB]

"Line shopping."


I can't emphasize this enough:

FUKK LINE SHOPPING!!!




"Very few are going to make a noticeable profit in the long run..."

[dlowilly]

KVB dizzy from watching his interracial cuck porn I see

[KVB]

KVB dizzy from watching his interracial cuck porn I see

Pretty sure I was agreeing with you there, Dlow, and laughing at the guy who says "fukk line shopping"

lol

[dlowilly]

Pretty sure I was agreeing with you there, Dlow, and laughing at the guy who says "fukk line shopping"

lol

Ah, I misunderstood then



Still, cut back on that stuff, it will rot your brain

[KVB]

[Fred The Hammer]

Come to my cfb thread and you'll see some winning. 17-4 ATS since I started it. I know the game and I know people that know the game. Joey Galloway of Ohio State and 12 yrs NFL or whatever is on ESPN. He's 28-6 ATS since last year including 5-1 this year. Its all about discipline. I used to clean up at poker and was basically a semi-pro when the poker boom started around 2004-05. I made really nice money for years, but players got better and I didn't so I eventually quit. I suck at nba so I don't bet it much. I enjoy horses, but that shit is basically unbeatable with a 14-15% rake so I don't spend much on it. If you have discipline and knowledge then you can win, but most people don't have the time or patience to study what they need to learn.

For example. I've been cashing La Tech for 6-7 years now....however long Skip Holtz has been there. They were at BYU a few weeks ago on a Friday I think? The total opened at 55.5. I jumped on the Over on Tuesday I think. I told a degenerate friend that I met at the sportsbook to play it and he waits til Friday and puts down $1500 on Over 61 or some shit. Of course it was 45-14 BYU.

You have to be patient and lose the ego. Many guys can't just follow a winner they have to reinvent the wheel for some reason? I like a game then I study it for 20-30 minutes. See what total Oddssharks comes up with and I roll with it. Its not rocket science

[Fred The Hammer]

For full disclosure I will say this. Maybe it could help someone? I was married in the 90s and dealt with my marital problems with gambling. I had no family in Texas and she & her family hated me. I lost about $20k which ruined my marriage, but one positive was that she forced me to go to Gamblers Anonymous to stay married. After a month of that I decided to keep gambling and quit being married I did atleast learn from the counselors about the psychology of gamblers. They're usually immature with low self confidence and have delusions of "hitting it big" and using it as a way to numb their pain or loneliness like an alcoholic that drinks. Like the scene in the Al Pacino movie Two For The Money....some subconsciously want to lose. They feel unworthy of success so they make sure they don't keep any money they win.

Whats the answer? Do don't that shit. Don't be that person. Know yourself. I have been and continue to be some of those things, but learn to be honest with yourself and don't go to your danger zone. Quit occasionally. Know when you're having gambling withdrawal and go get laid or see your kids or your family. Whatever? I've seen it in poker 1,000 times....somebody is mentally shot and just ready to give their money away. Its sad. Overall though thats why 95% of gamblers take a bath and I've lost. I lost like $15k in 2008 when I made like $40k. Stick with your strengths and avoid your weaknesses. I have ADD so I hope this makes some sense or someone else can see themselves and turn it around.

[hehfest]

KVB dizzy from watching his interracial cuck porn I see

Does he want to be the cuck or the one banging the cucks wife is the question?

[dlowilly]

For full disclosure I will say this. Maybe it could help someone? I was married in the 90s and dealt with my marital problems with gambling. I had no family in Texas and she & her family hated me. I lost about $20k which ruined my marriage, but one positive was that she forced me to go to Gamblers Anonymous to stay married. After a month of that I decided to keep gambling and quit being married I did atleast learn from the counselors about the psychology of gamblers. They're usually immature with low self confidence and have delusions of "hitting it big" and using it as a way to numb their pain or loneliness like an alcoholic that drinks. Like the scene in the Al Pacino movie Two For The Money....some subconsciously want to lose. They feel unworthy of success so they make sure they don't keep any money they win.

Whats the answer? Do don't that shit. Don't be that person. Know yourself. I have been and continue to be some of those things, but learn to be honest with yourself and don't go to your danger zone. Quit occasionally. Know when you're having gambling withdrawal and go get laid or see your kids or your family. Whatever? I've seen it in poker 1,000 times....somebody is mentally shot and just ready to give their money away. Its sad. Overall though thats why 95% of gamblers take a bath and I've lost. I lost like $15k in 2008 when I made like $40k. Stick with your strengths and avoid your weaknesses. I have ADD so I hope this makes some sense or someone else can see themselves and turn it around.

Fred, your number one problem is ur a leftist. All other problems originate from or are secondary to that.

That's not me just trying to insult you. Leftists have extreme difficulty processing information. They cannot learn from past experiences and mistakes. They are also very emotional. That's basically the trifecta of doom for a gambler.

[hehfest]

I've had the best run of my life in last years NHL/MLB playoffs and now this years NHL/MLB playoffs. Best run ever in MLB playoffs. I don't bet every single game either, but maybe half the series on average. When it comes to NBA or NFL, or even College sports I'm not all that great. I know my strengths like Fred said. I can hold my own in NFL and NBA and won nice in the finals for 3 games going 3-0 but I already know I won't be having a major profit in the NFL so I don't need to go crazy betting the board like many do. Look we are all gamblers here which means we all have a problem with impulse control. What I've become or mastered in the last few years is controlling that impulse to not take a game just to have action every single day. It's sort of like not penetrating a fat woman just so you can get laid every day. Take your time finding a sexy woman. If you're doing the fat girl every day, you'll never focus on getting the sexy woman. You'll just be left with fat women your whole life. Same applies to gambling.

Try to find new angles on your bets or potential bets. If you don't do any research or study anything, then why would you expect to win if you are currently losing? Watch games, focus, find angles during games for live betting. Find new angles why you like this game or that game, etc. If you aren't looking for new ways to win or studying things, then you probably should quit gambling. I've reinvented myself with my gambling procedures countless times to get to where I am today. This isn't working anymore. Maybe I will totally throw that idea out the window or keep a piece of it and add it to my next idea, etc.

[dlowilly]

I've had the best run of my life in last years NHL/MLB playoffs and now this years NHL/MLB playoffs. Best run ever in MLB playoffs. I don't bet every single game either, but maybe half the series on average. When it comes to NBA or NFL, or even College sports I'm not all that great. I know my strengths like Fred said. I can hold my own in NFL and NBA and won nice in the finals for 3 games going 3-0 but I already know I won't be having a major profit in the NFL so I don't need to go crazy betting the board like many do. Look we are all gamblers here which means we all have a problem with impulse control. What I've become or mastered in the last few years is controlling that impulse to not take a game just to have action every single day. It's sort of like not penetrating a fat woman just so you can get laid every day. Take your time finding a sexy woman. If you're doing the fat girl every day, you'll never focus on getting the sexy woman. You'll just be left with fat women your whole life. Same applies to gambling.

Try to find new angles on your bets or potential bets. If you don't do any research or study anything, then why would you expect to win if you are currently losing? Watch games, focus, find angles during games for live betting. Find new angles why you like this game or that game, etc. If you aren't looking for new ways to win or studying things, then you probably should quit gambling. I've reinvented myself with my gambling procedures countless times to get to where I am today. This isn't working anymore. Maybe I will totally throw that idea out the window or keep a piece of it and add it to my next idea, etc.

[G Anon Dropout]

At the standard -110......


The Book is getting +110 on EVERY Dollar u wager....EVERY COIN FLIP +110

SO TELL ME.....how can u possibly win after say 100 wagers...


If I flip a coin 1000 x and when I win I get -110 but when u win u get +110


it is mathematically impossible for me to win....U will always WIN






SO...what is it about sportsbettors....Do they think they really have ANY CHANCE????



00000000000000 NO shot. all smoke and mirrors....



My advice........********** all your bets and quit......NOW



If I can get +110 on all bets.....I will slaughter you....


SO...QUIT giving the books your money.....it is a fools errand.



Sorry..I had to burst your Gambling Bubble......but u are looking at LOST MONEY



Screw all the books...with their rigged up casinos....and rules and regs....



F**** EM ALL.

A smart progressive betting scheme (not Martingale) puts the odds in your favor.

[veriableodds]

OG poster great start as in thought process for assimilation of how math works. From experience its more a money management , risk factor then anything else. Now is a great time for experiment of picking 100 wagers with bias in the line. Take only lines giving more than +100 where you know you have more than a 50% chance of winning based of the data comparison , or facts . Ya might be surprised how the math works out

[PAULYPOKER]

Fred, your number one problem is ur a leftist. All other problems originate from or are secondary to that.

That's not me just trying to insult you. Leftists have extreme difficulty processing information. They cannot learn from past experiences and mistakes. They are also very emotional. That's basically the trifecta of doom for a gambler.

What's your definition of a "leftist"?

[stevenash]

The difference is that the sports wager is not a coin flip.

This.

There's plenty of games where a +130 underdog should be -120 or so.
Exploit those games,

[blankoblanco]

A smart progressive betting scheme (not Martingale) puts the odds in your favor.

No, it absolutely doesn't. No sequencing of -110 bets, whether it's Martingale or something else, magically puts the odds in your favor. There's no such thing as getting an edge from a "betting scheme." The idea is utterly nonsensical. Learn how math works

Literally only way to have the odds in your favor is to spot a discrepancy between what a line is and what it should be, period

[stevenash]

^
What he said.

Now we all understand the books are not in the business of making mistakes, however on a mid-September weekend there are 15 MLB pro games, 80 plus NCAA football games, all the NFL games on the following Sunday, we are talking over 100 games so far and that's before we talk about the scheduled soccer matches and all the other minor sports books make betting lines on.

I would venture a guess and say about 90 percent of all those games the betting lines are sharp, I would say there are maybe 20 or so games where the line might be soft.

There's just too many games even for the book makers to get 100 percent razor sharp.

If one is serious about wagering then it's up to him to find the soft lines.
They will always be a soft line or two, find it and exploit it.

[KVB]

A smart progressive betting scheme (not Martingale) puts the odds in your favor.

Oh my.