Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-20-18, 09:22 AM

**KVB** · 08-20-18, 10:20 AM

Fund play ......Atl/Pit UNDER 7.5 (-110)...Good Luck

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 08-20-18, 11:08 AM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 08-20-18, 11:14 AM

**KVB** · 08-20-18, 12:19 PM

I wish I had a YouTube account, or tinypic, there are some vids and pics I could make, there are some asses up here this week...daaaayaaaam.

**turtledoves** · 08-20-18, 01:02 PM

just post em

baba at the bell for 174.75

**KVB** · 08-20-18, 01:09 PM

I had pics of a bunch of different bet slips for that cfl game, all kinds, hitting limits, multiple stabs, etc. But the play lost, no need celebrate my misery. Can’t post pics like before, I’ll check out tinypic. Bought some Under 7.5 in Pit for +105 at Harrah’s would love to use it to track...lol. Line will go to 8. This same skinny dolled up blonde is at the same bar as last night late, all the make up, thinking call girl here, she’s got more casino stamina than I do, gotta be a ho in waiting.

**KVB** · 08-20-18, 02:42 PM

https://www.knightscope.com What’s the play here?

**turtledoves** · 08-20-18, 03:09 PM

picked it up late today

**KVB** · 08-20-18, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Fund play ......Atl/Pit UNDER 7.5 (-110)...Good Luck

Pitching change, this bet is off but there is still a strong under indication.

**KVB** · 08-20-18, 05:08 PM

Two pays For the Fund with with Atl/Pit Under 8 (-110) and Seattle +159....Good Luck.

**turtledoves** · 08-20-18, 05:22 PM

Pirates ML is a loss!

**turtledoves** · 08-20-18, 07:55 PM

why is kvb talking about the pimp game? he's driving up and down nevada collecting from working girls? he's got all the hos working for him?

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-20-18, 08:01 PM

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by turtledoves

why is kvb talking about the pimp game? he's driving up and down nevada collecting from working girls? he's got all the hos working for him?

Yes. I got hoes in different area codes.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 11:10 AM

Picked up CHC/DET OVER 9 (-110) as the first play for the Contrarian Fund.

**Auto Donk** · 08-21-18, 11:12 AM

Bash Time....

I'll be doin' this dance fo sho:

have to create the epic DonkLand Roadshow: SBR Vegas Bash 2018 Edition soon......

**Auto Donk** · 08-21-18, 11:14 AM

and doin' this little ditty:

"allow me to hump thee"

**Auto Donk** · 08-21-18, 11:16 AM

and if any mutha fukka get's outta hand, I'll be doin' the

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Picked up CHC/DET OVER 9 (-110) as the first play for the Contrarian Fund.

Added TEX/OAK UNDER 9 (-110) to the Fund.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Picked up CHC/DET OVER 9 (-110) as the first play for the Contrarian Fund.

Originally posted by KVB

Added TEX/OAK UNDER 9 (-110) to the Fund.

Back at the desk for a moment, got the plays into the contest page and added two more to the Fund...

San Francisco Giants vs N.Y. Mets Under 8 (-105)MLB [General]
08/21/18 07:10 PM ET

Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox Under 9 (-106)MLB [General]
08/21/18 07:10 PM ET

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Under 9 (-115)MLB [General]
08/21/18 10:05 PM ET

Ch Cubs vs Detroit Tigers Over 9 (-110)MLB [General]
08/21/18 07:10 PM ET

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 04:44 PM

Added some moneyline to the Fund, 8 plays so far today...

San Francisco Giants vs N.Y. Mets Under 8 (-105)MLB [General]
08/21/18 07:10 PM ET

Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox Under 9 (-106)MLB [General]
08/21/18 07:10 PM ET

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Under 9 (-115)MLB [General]
08/21/18 10:05 PM ET

Ch Cubs vs Detroit Tigers Over 9 (-110)MLB [General]
08/21/18 07:10 PM ET

Baltimore Orioles +123MLB [General]
08/21/18 07:07 PM ET

Detroit Tigers +185MLB [General]
08/21/18 07:10 PM ET

Seattle Mariners +111MLB [General]
08/21/18 10:10 PM ET

CH White Sox +104MLB [General]
08/21/18 08:10 PM ET

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 05:58 PM

Big night tonight and easily could have put in more plays, easily.

If that target circle were just a little bigger, I'd have at least 4 more plays, including MIA and the UNDER in that game.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 06:07 PM

Even an Under in Zona sounds good, but I think sharp bettors already took our 1/2 point away.

**turtledoves** · 08-21-18, 06:09 PM

contrarian contrarian plays for the night:

TOR ML
HOU ML
SFG/NYM over 8
TEX/OAK over 9

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Big night tonight and easily could have put in more plays, easily.

If that target circle were just a little bigger, I'd have at least 4 more plays, including MIA and the UNDER in that game....

Total just dropped, that Under is probably a good Under tonight.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

contrarian contrarian plays for the night:

TOR ML
HOU ML
SFG/NYM over 8
TEX/OAK over 9

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 06:12 PM

Your Houston play fails, gamblers fallacy with bettors thinking Houston can't lose two in a row, but some of us know better.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Even an Under in Zona sounds good, but I think sharp bettors already took our 1/2 point away.
...

Even more pressure on that Under at game time.

That Under is probably good too.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 06:19 PM

**turtledoves** · 08-21-18, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Your Houston play fails, gamblers fallacy with bettors thinking Houston can't lose two in a row, but some of us know better.

like my chances with peacock starting and the rest of the pen. hope leake doesn't shut them down

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 06:20 PM

**turtledoves** · 08-21-18, 06:25 PM

really like the moe part around 2:55

**omedo** · 08-21-18, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by KVB

The sharp forecast is just that, a sharp forecast. It will beat the closing line, has every game this year, but that aberration could be because I post the opening plays and these markets aren't very liquid.

It is designed to beat the market against the spread and Totals (although I have been warning about the Total performance this year, there is evidence it is getting stronger) and is designed to predict the moneyline, particularly upsets, in a very narrow range, of about 1/3rd of the time, all the time. It doesn't go far from center, when it comes to predicting upsets. It is a gauge to follow in terms of the market.

The sharp forecast has beaten the spread considerably the last three years and was shared on SBR. Let's see if it can continue to do so.

One thing about the sharp forecast is that it is dynamic, not static. It does not rely on static, historical black box type models as a sole source of prediction. It takes into account the current market environment and can often vary from the market quite a bit, revealing inefficiencies.

The stacking percentages forecast does just that. It stacks percentages and angles to develop an edge using static historical data. It is designed to beat the market but also designed to have less of an average line error than the books themselves. As we get more games, we will test these results.

The non-predictive public gauge is designed to assess the public sentiment at the time. It involves relatively common ratings as well as taking into account simple forecasting methods that may often times be subject to a recency bias, to it's detriment.

I believe both the sharp and stacking forecasts will be profitably this year against the spreads and have no reason to vary from that prediction.

We will see.

You have to take account the players. Sure allmost everyone is in sintony with the team and belong on the average of things. But some dont.
You could shave off some losers and add some winners with it.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by omedo

You have to take account the players. Sure allmost everyone is in sintony with the team and belong on the average of things. But some dont.
You could shave off some losers and add some winners with it.

Omedo!!!!

Long time no see. I hope all is well.

I posted recently about how there is evidence that passing with the sharp forecast when there are major injuries, I think aright around that post. It used to be noise, but you are right, passing in that situation would have and at times did shave some losers the last couple of years.

I also mentioned how the stacking forecast does take into account players and sometimes a I can't make unless we know some starters.

Omedo good to see you. Things are getting busy with Football around the corner. Maybe we can attack college football this year at SBR.