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never looked at golf lines, what kind of stats do you look at? trying to retire and golf every day ASAPI need to go back and track each golf trade in this thread, and in the Be The Ball thread. I've had winners and losers in each, and some across both. I need to combine them. I know this thread had a +1850, which offset some losses.
I want to say again how happy I am to be able to post each game in the NFL playoffs and have you guys see things play out for themselves. Of course, the playoffs allow for that each year. I also appreciate how we've remained a bit low key, and thank you for it. But, I also like some discussion or questions, so don't be afraid to chime in a bit, or even PM. It will make us all better bettors. Also, I am trying to get better with PM's, I know I owe Omedo, at the very least, some discussion, the guy is sharp and destined to do well.
I want to get a similar thing going with golf, like with the playoffs, as we lead up to a major. It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it and telling you it's raining outside means far less then you walking outside into the rain.
I hope I can tell the story.
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Indians to win it all +1000
sorry bro
or is that for this year?
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I have a play. The markets are clearly swelled on account of the NFL Conference finals.
Once again, I need to be quick. For the Arizona vs. UCLA game my sharpest forecast has UCLA winning by only 1 point at 78-77.
The public gauge has UCLA winning 83-78.
I have market metrics indicating an upset here and think it is highly suspicious that the forecasts have such a close game as well.
That said, win or lose, at this time of year some metrics must be listened to and heard. I don't want to try to out think the book here and picked up Arizona +5.5 (-105) over UCLA.
I intend to trade this game live and also picked up Arizona +217 in the trading account.
When they take an early lead, I intend pick up UCLA live. Let's see if we get the opportunity. This has many markings of a late UCLA cover and I may regret the +5.5.
To Win Short Description Open Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game Basketball - 587 Arizona +5½ -105 for Game Basketball - 587 Arizona +217 for Game
Good Luck.
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First I learned how the golf markets work; the give and take. It has been later and more recently that I've understood a great deal about the makeup of the lines.
It's like everyone knows an upset is going to eventually come in the NFL because of so many favorites covering, but now Fly Me readers understand that there was so much more to that picture.
I am getting that understanding more and more with golf...it's becoming brilliant.
Just look now, I'm staring another big winner down the throat. The only problem is that from the outset, before Thursday, I had anticipated a surprises comeback for the PGA Tour Sunday. When the first NFL game starts, we won't know the golf winner. I thought it would be Reed.
That doesn't bode well for my Swafford bet. Or does it? The expectation of a golf surprise on Sunday isn't that far fetched to many analysts. In similar form to the fake Dallas comeback, Swafford just might hold on Sunday.
Golf stats aside, there's a flow of money and that is best seen by viewing the opening lines each golf tournament. Using what I know we will reverse engineer the makeup of those matchups and futures...and see why they are built that way.
Then we just watch. It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. Like I said, I hope to tell the story leading up to a major. They do the same thing every year.
I'm trying to figure parameters to hand you Grapes, so you can streamline some of this data. It's not that much, but it's busy work. I think I will show you columns of a spreadsheet, how they need to link to golfers, and what needs to be scraped to fill in the data. I am still building that spreadsheet.
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Well, they took the early lead, as expected. I took UCLA +172, it's now +232...
Short Description Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - CareerBuilder Challenge - Odds to Win CareerBuilder Challenge 2017 - Patrick Reed +1850 Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - CareerBuilder Challenge - Odds to win CareerBuilder Challenge 2017 - Hudson Swafford +1600 - Money Line: UCLA +172.277 - Sat Jan 21 2017 16:18EST: Arizona @ UCLA 
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It's MMA time. I added Chael Sonnes to the open parlay and made another two pick with Paul Daley...
Chael can't lose now, he's in the middle of celebrity apprentice being aired.To Win Short Description Open Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game
Fighting - 24272 C. Sonnen -200 for GameFighting - 24272 C. Sonnen -200 for Game
Fighting - 24276 Paul Daley +100 for Game
It's all about promotions here.
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Paul Daley with the flying knee to start things off right.
It all comes down to a guy named Chael.
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Fukkin knew it. I started the stream and it said it was Ortiz's last fight. Right then I thought a Hollywood guy is a patsy for this. I'm guessing Chael ended up going far in the apprentice. I read that promotion all fukkin wrong. The mistake...not doing my homework. I did not know it was Tito Ortiz's last fight before placing that bet. My focus was on the douche bag Chael.
In fact, I considered, with my wife, taking the +170 to get out.
Fawk.
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This pretty much says it all...
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I know I have been trying to put out a play on each playoff game and it’s led to some aggressive bold plays. We’re at a point in market analysis where there is little future left in this story. It becomes very difficult to understand the flow of money before the first game has tipped. It’s like this at the pinnacle of all sports, but especially at the end of the NFL.
If I’m going to predict the first game, I may have to go out on a limb. Just look at last week. I assumed the Dallas comeback was false, citing its ease to call, and declared Pittsburgh for the next game.
Talk about going out on a limb.
Now that you’ve seen that give and take flow through a day I’m going to lay out all the numbers for tomorrow.
The sharp forecast has Atlanta winning 41-31. This triggers a bet on Atlanta up to -5.5, with no bet at -6. Despite the high scoring prediction, the opening line is too high for a bet to be triggered automatically. Last Sunday’s NFC game with Dallas and Green Bay had a similar total situation against the market, the OVER paid…this may offer a hint in that world of give and take. The sharp forecast is 0-5 this NFL playoffs when a bet is triggered.
The stacking forecast has Atlanta winning 31-17. This shows a lower score than most and this forecast has recently failed when predicting UNDERS against the spread. I have metrics indicating it may have the successful prediction for this game.
The public gauge has Atlanta winning 35-31.
I have multiple metrics indicating this game will go UNDER and that high spread makes it a palatable play. I like the situation where the stacking forecast is on the UNDER side of the market while the others remain on the OVER side. There are a few different types of groups of bettors that will be glad to see the UNDER, and given the recent climate, I don’t think the book will mind the payout.
I think this split is what the market has sought to satisfy the surrounding UNDER conditions. With the line moving as high as it has, I picked up UNDER 61.5 (-108) for Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons.
Good Luck.
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The sharp forecast has New England winning 31-17. This triggers a bet on New England all the way to -10.5 points with no bet at -11. The forecast of 48 is in line with the offered TOTAL of 50 points.
The stacking forecast Has New England winning 28-16, predicting another playoff UNDER.
The public gauge has New England winning 27-20.
All three forecasts have New England winning and all three forecasts are below the posted TOTAL
I find it hard to believe that the sharp forecast will be correct against the moneyline for both Atlanta and New England. This is exactly what happened on Saturday January 14th. It would be convenient to find one favorite and one upset tomorrow, but not necessary. It’s this “easy call” of one favorite and one underdog that I believe the market intends to exploit. We can satisfy my give and take moneyline condition with both underdogs still covering ATS. Outside of a split, this is more likely than both favorites covering.
Now you know I have a built in bias to see that big AFC North upset, and we can make a case that it has already come. Further, with that huge playoff settlement last Sunday night, and Green Bay paying the sharp forecast predicting an upset, it’s possible neither sharp moneyline is successful on Sunday.
Speaking of that settlement with Pittsburgh, with such a payout on Sunday it is best to proceed with caution for the first NFL game. Instead, let’s look for a few things.
If the market seeks one favorite and one underdog, how can it be exploited? Remember, according to the sharp forecast, it’s the Atlanta bets that stop coming in at -6, but the New England plays have conspicuously more room for money. So let’s talk actual money flow.
Now if Green Bay were to take a lead early, that should drive money towards New England. While Pittsburgh is a heavily bet team, there is no problem getting money to New England. In fact, I would take any kind of apparent underdog result in game one as an extracurricular attempt to drive money to the favorite, New England.
A late Atlanta comeback to win would then imply Pittsburgh, but it would be very late if not too late, by the time we have that information. If Atlanta managed to cover, say in OT, then what looked like the dog truly wouldn’t be, and the dog becomes Pittsburgh.
But if Atlanta didn’t cover the spread and only wins the game, there would still be a market push for the favorite…New England. Always be wary, as there is little need to push Brady and Coach at home, especially against the Steelers, especially a flu ridden Pittsburgh team.
So what if Atlanta takes the lead outright, and controls the game to the end? Given the metrics I see regarding the underdog, it would imply the market is selling Pittsburgh. I might bite on the spread, but would be less enthusiastic about the moneyline for sure.
But I would look for a more ambiguous score towards the end of that first game.
Going, again, back to last Sunday, the underdogs winning took away that market pressure and expectation of underdogs following the 6 straight favorites. This makes it easier to pull off an upset.
Between the market tendencies, the low New England line, and the structure that we can get from the flow of money, you can see I am leading towards Pittsburgh covering the spread if not outright winning in New England. Further, I have more specific metrics indicating an underdog in that game.
It’s not what they bring, it’s how they bring it and I will have a difficult time putting a play in bold without more information. So let’s watch game one, keeping an eye on the live markets as well, and see what we can come up with.
The NFL never makes it easy.
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Here's what I have so far; I put the UNDER 61.5 in an Open 4 pick Parlay and hit twice individually...
This is a patient UNDER and I intend to hit it live game time as well.To Win Short Description Football - 311 Green Bay Packers/Atlanta Falcons under 61½ -108 for Game Open Football - 311 Green Bay Packers/Atlanta Falcons under 61½ -113 for Game Football - 311 Green Bay Packers/Atlanta Falcons under 61½ -108 for Game
The market is over bought and it's time for that UNDER to pay.
Take the UNDER in game 1.
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Swafford lost the lead to Adam Hadwin. He could get it back but Hadwin shot 13 under par on Saturday. He packed his bags and moved from way back on moving day. In an attempt to deflect from that foreseen turnaround on Sunday, it's possible it happened already and Swafford is now behind and there's nothing we can do about it.
That trading account doesn't have available lines and I can't paste to post the play but in a defensive counter measure, I was able to pick up Hadwin +315 to win the Careerbuilder Challenge. That -13 from Hadwin was just too low for Saturday and I'm forced to react.
Good Luck.
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Still no play for the side in the first game, I've decided to watch closely.
I think I picked up the UNDER at the right time, I doubt we see 61.5 again.
I'm still thinking Pittsburgh, at the very least, +6 points, maybe to win. Let's see how it plays out early
The forecats are waiting for the games to begin...
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Cat on the left gives no fuks.Comment -
Line dropping as well. We just saw one of the biggest favorites in NFL history cover. I think the highest TOTAL fails to go OVER.
Those groups I mentioned that are seeking the UNDER are market moving groups, for the most part, and their money is coming in now.
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I already hit the live line for an extra strike...
Short Description Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - CareerBuilder Challenge - Odds to Win CareerBuilder Challenge 2017 - Patrick Reed +1850 Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - CareerBuilder Challenge - Odds to win CareerBuilder Challenge 2017 - Hudson Swafford +1600 - Game Total: Under 60.5 -122.222 - Sun Jan 22 2017 14:37EST: GB Packers @ ATL Falcons
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Notice the movement in the PGA leaderboard, and the ambiguity therein. Swafford back in the hunt.
Looking at Steele at +580 to win it.
He seems like he could steal this from the rest of them and would satisfy my market conditions.
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This is why we watch the first game, and not bet it. A break from what I've been doing, despite the fact that I've wanted to do it every weekend.
The Packers are favored by a field goal in the second half, moving to -3.5. It sure seems like the idea of a comeback, after the high profile failed comebacks on what I now call settlement Sunday last weekend, is out of the bag. Even being sold.
We must out think the marketplace, that's how we win. I call it settlement Sunday because it was a huge settlement.
This game represents more of a new beginning, after a settlement, still influenced and built on past results.
To outsmart the marketplace, and even maybe the books, the best thing to do is not let the signals pull you away from a good bet. That's what often makes a good bet, pulling groups off of it, including helping to build an upset (addressed in some posts in this thread).
If this is indeed a new beginning, then exploiting the expected one underdog and one favorite result behavior I talked about before is not a good approach.
I could be better stay the course, and realize that if this game represents a solid favorite, then indeed that behavior of one favorite and one underdog could be in play. There is nothing wrong with treating the conference finals as there own entity of give and take, it's the perfect two events and money is big.
Can you pick up what I'm putting down? Can you see how waiting for information can help in decision making?
I'm still thinking Pittsburgh here, but it's the NFL and anything can happen. If this game ends Atlanta and UNDER, I am prepared to move.
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I wouldn't be surprised see extra holes in golf today, keep it ambiguous just a little longer.
We'll see this again during the NBA championships as well.
Swafford missed a 12 footer for the outright lead. I smell OT.
Edit: it was a par 5. Swafford now has the outright lead.
Let me say this much, you know I can cross sports with money flow, if Swafford wins it makes really want to avoid Pittsburgh.
But I'll take the +1600.
Last edited by KVB; 01-22-17, 05:24 PM.Comment -
Oh shit, Swafford up 2 strokes with two holes left.
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So much for the UNDER in this first game.
I just don't like what I see in this marketplace. So much football left, Swafford winning takes down significant money (take) that would flow to the New England patriots, this tends to imply the Patriots (give).
Swafford losing his lead, not on Sunday, but on Saturday, only to win it back Sunday takes out an important short term metric I was hoping to use. It screws things up a bit for sure. It gave an opportunity to throw money at the guy who shot a 59 on Saturday on a different course.
This isn't Superbowl Sunday, and surely there will be more of a story that day. I'm not going to let it throw me as I've already taken Pittsburgh Steelers +6 (-105) and +212 over the New England Patriots.
If we see the favorite come this game, we will have to treat the Superbowl as the settlement. I doubt it will be as kind to the forecast behavior as the last settlement.
I feel the best opportunity could be behind us.
Good Luck.
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Here's the pending, featuring 3 losses that are just waiting to disappear...
The Steeler girls are hot though...To Win Short Description Football - 311 Green Bay Packers/Atlanta Falcons under 61½ -108 for Game Open Football - 311 Green Bay Packers/Atlanta Falcons under 61½ -113 for Game Football - 311 Green Bay Packers/Atlanta Falcons under 61½ -108 for Game Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +6 -105 for Game Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +212 for Game Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +6 -105 for Game
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I like the Steelers girls.Comment -
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