Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[KVB]

I made a two pick based on the above analysis...

To Win	Short Description
Open	Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -110 for Game Football - 399 Texas -145 for Game Football - 456 New York Giants -149 for Game
	Football - 471 Denver Broncos/Oakland Raiders over 44½ -108 for Game
	Football - 471 Denver Broncos/Oakland Raiders over 44 -123 buying ½ for Game Football - 473 Buffalo Bills/Seattle Seahawks over 44 -110 for Game

Let's see how this one plays out.

[KVB]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a push on one of these totals and buying down to 44 tonight or 43.5 tomorrow is not a bad idea for the short term type trade.

IF, and that's IF, it's the OVER tonight, make sure you get some OVER tomorrow...43.5 is ideal.

[KVB]

There's rhyme and reason to the formulation of the open parlays. While I have one pending 4 pick with 3 in, I am taking tonight's OVER 43.5 in a new open 4 pick...

	Football - 471 Denver Broncos/Oakland Raiders over 44 -123 buying ½ for Game Football - 473 Buffalo Bills/Seattle Seahawks over 44 -110 for Game
Open	Football - 471 Denver Broncos/Oakland Raiders over 43½ -132 buying 1 for Game

Tomorrow's play may qualify to close the other one.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Went 7-0 today

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Which includes 5-0 I btp plays as well

took under 45in tonights Raidahs game cuz why not

[Fidel_CashFlow]

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/32/38/d0/3238d001a5d7f417bda8c8e11034e0ce.jpg

[KVB]

Which includes 5-0 I btp plays as well

took under 45in tonights Raidahs game cuz why not

on BTP


But I am thinking a different route tonight.

One time...

Short Description

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - Candidate to win the 2016 Presidential Election - Donald Trump +305

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - US 2016 Presidential Election - by State - State Winner - Florida - Republican -110

- Game Total: Over 43.5 -122.222 - Sun Nov 06 2016 20:13EST: DEN Broncos @ OAK Raiders

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Went 7-0 today

[KVB]

Good to see you Cash, I hope all is well.

Been picking up OVER 43.5 live anywhere it's offered, but I think that feast is OVER, literally.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Sucks the small amount of points u get on beat the prick
because of all the non pro broke dikk fukks eating up massive amounts of points

should get like 5 thousand instead it will only be 1200

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Good to see you Cash, I hope all is well.

Been picking up OVER 43.5 live anywhere it's offered, but I think that feast is OVER, literally.

Wish I could tell ya all was well but cant get sed to the heavy stiffness
along y jaw line , plus the tightness of the nerve


Watch us somehwo both win and t land on 44 points exactly lol

[KVB]

You'll get there Cash, takes a lot of time, as far as the 44 goes, I think I mention that above...lol.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Looks like I shoulda stopped at 7

[Fidel_CashFlow]

In all fairness though the refs are calling this game like its pee wee flag football , u better not fart near a receiver or its a game changing
pass interference flag

[KVB]

Dude, if it's the OVER tonight expect a bold play tomorrow. After that I'll try to chill on the long write ups.

I'm actually not really watching the game. I think I know exactly what's going to happen. The 6 point 1st quarter and early second quarter TD gives it away for me. the reason I was adamant about 43.5 is that it's seems so obvious here to some that a push may have to be the result. Or, it just is what it is and nothing can stop the machine that is an NFL market.

Tomorrow may be a solid play. We'll see.

Cash...post some tunes.

[Jayvegas420]

[KVB]

As you know I like, and already own, the OVER 44 for the Monday night game and think the line could drop before game time. To be fair, let’s go over the numbers…

My sharpest forecast has Buffalo winning 28-27 triggering a play on Buffalo down to +3.5 and an OVER up to 47.5.

The stacking forecast has Seattle winning 28-16 and note once again how this forecast lines up with the market…a recurring theme for sure.

The pubic gauge has Seattle winning 20-17, predicting an UNDER. I would like to note that the “public” had a very good week on sides, moneylines, and totals thus far.

So you know I’m countering the Public by buying the OVER, but what about that 28-27 upset I’m predicting?

I know I didn’t post every forecast this week but let’s look at some results from my forecasts against the moneyline:

I had predicted a tie in the ATL/TB and DET/Minn games so there was no forecast against the moneyline.

I predicted 6 market favorites to outright win and only Green Bay failed there. I predicted 3 outright market upsets with Philly and Tennessee failing and Buffalo remaining.

Denver/Oakland opened and closed a pick so while I had correctly forecasted Oakland a moneyline winner (they were a favorite for some trading), they are classified as neither a favorite nor a dog.

Finally, I predicted Pitt to beat Baltimore and they opened an underdog, but became favored. Either way, it failed.

So my forecasts are 6-4 against the moneyline in total so far and 0-2 predicting upsets (0-3 against the openers).

The interesting point here is that over the long haul against moneylines my forecasts tend to hit about 60-70%. But when predicting underdogs specifically, that rate is closer to 33%. There is little variance here, very little.

So is Buffalo an upset candidate? Other metrics in these give and take markets indicate a strong possibility. This post is long enough so I’ll save them for another time.

It’s something to consider and I can tell you one thing: if it isn’t an upset Monday night, and with so many metrics agreeing on the night game in tough Seattle it may not be, I think we will be able to sniff out the awaiting upset moving forward.

If you did make it through this post hopefully you gained even further insight into what I mean when I say to track your bets and why you made them. It’s the reason I took the time to write it.

[KVB]

...Both Dallas/Cle and Pitt/Balt have total lines that opened triggering bets with the sharp line, but moved towards my line out of range. Sharp money playing totals in the AFC North...

This is the second time I'm quoting this post. Their were two UNDERS in that division this week; both results going against the line move.

I talked about breaking up the rotation by conference and division. Let's take an example here with a single division that had two games. In the AFC North, concerning my forecasts, Dallas succeeded against the moneyline and spread, Pittsburgh failed against both...some natural give and take.

The favorite covered against the closer in one game and the underdog the other...more natural give and take (not true for the opener though.)

To vaguely discuss streak riding and streak breaking bettors, within the Dallas/Cleve game their was give and take between spread and total. The same with Pitt Baltimore. Also, between the two games there was give and take for those guys on the spread and even the Total.

But three were two UNDERS, and both of my forecasts lost. A lot of give and take in this division, but only TAKE on the TOTAL for the guys who moved that market.

So let's look for the AFC North to GIVE a little. First instinct will be to look for an OVER, that will likely lead to a loser. The NFL requires more patience than that. Remember, you need four weeks of data to produce a good forecast but about two weeks to produce a "good" play in the NFL. Let's keep an eye out.

So give and take can span weeks among a division and that's certainly a broad picture. But what about just this week? When we look at how the opening lines drew money to certain totals above, we see the take. Now consider my forecast winning last night, during the prime time game even: that was some GIVE, but I'm just not satisfied.

Why? Because when the line moved from 45.5 to 43 in Jacksonville.Kansas City it triggered an OVER bet for my forecast. That failed.

As tonight's line drops to that same 43, making the OVER prediction an even better bet, I expect success.

After three instances of deliberated TAKE from the market on Sunday, I expect a little more GIVE tonight.

Good Luck tonight.

[KVB]

It's a trying thing to watch, adjust and bet while the market is live. It takes experience and energy, let alone writing about it. In the recent weeks I've offered some real sophisticated market reads and a lot of winning analysis. Sure, there have been some losers, but that online account is up, even without counting the near 30 units of PGA winnings posted here.

It isn't easy to "beat" these major markets when buying nearly all the plays at or near the market close. You have seen that here.

I saw a post late Saturday asking how I can only have 1 or 2 plays, aren't 5 required? I've posted before how it's sometimes it's worth the loss in value to gain further market information. While there is so much valid emphasis on getting to lines early, I've also posted that if you understand why they open where they do and move where they move, you will go a long way to succeeding.

Often the markets are not as efficient as some of the most successful veterans believe (also something I've posted before), but they can certainly tighten up when necessary.

It's not the information, it's how you use it, and that changes it's appearance of efficiency. It's not that gamblers don't know things, it's just that so much they know can be wrong.

All these things I've posted before and whether you agree or disagree, in this thread I've consistently exploited that inefficiency, even on game day...and continue to with equity in open parlays.

One final thing to get off my chest...lol. Some of the above posts offer insight into my thinking but also can be applied to your own handicapping. Whether you are a seasoned gambler with winning numbers or just trying to figure out how to take it all in, organizing and viewing your work like I have above will show the value of another thing I always post...

Keep track of your bets and why you made them, it is information not even the biggest syndicate in the world has.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

lol @ how last nights game went over 45

[Fidel_CashFlow]

.......

.......

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

you better do something about this tightness K.V.B

time is running out

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[KVB]

lol @ how last nights game went over 45

I know Cash, I know...

Far too much reason to buy the under tonight. I'm taking the OVER, and when it comes late, I'm doing it again tomorrow...
...I think the NFL shows the guys looking for that UNDER who's really in control...

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[KVB]

[KVB]

you better do something about this tightness K.V.B

time is running out

Wait until Thanksgiving, then again until Christmas. At each holiday, I predict you will be better. I predict.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Wait until Thanksgiving,

then again until Christmas.

At each holiday, I predict

you will be better.

I predict.

[KVB]

[KVB]

Ok, one more long one regarding this week and then I’ll cool it in this thread. Divide the game up by division again and see that tonight the AFC East and NFC West are represented.

Let me give you some numbers…

For the AFC East I had Miami beating the Jets 31-21. That triggered a bet on Miami up to 6 points and an OVER play. The forecast was successful against the moneyline, against the spread open of 3 and 3.5, but pushed the 4. It was also successful with the OVER.

That’s a lot of GIVE, and now we a face an upset and OVER prediction with Buffalo winning 28-27. Looking for the TAKE would imply an UNDER. It could be said that streak breakers had a tough time in that game and give back might also imply an UNDER. Many understand that last sentence.

Is the market selling an UNDER to market readers looking for some settlement?

Now let’s look at the NFC West. I had NO beating SF 41-27. That forecast won against the spread and the moneyline. Because of the nature of the NFL, I rarely take an over once it hits 48, regardless of the forecast. In this case an OVER bet wasn’t triggered, but I track such high forecasts, the OVER would have paid as well. That’s even more GIVE.

I had Carolina beating LA 31-28. That forecast was correct on the Carolina moneyline but was too close to the market to trigger a spread bet. Still some more GIVE on that moneyline.

But the TOTAL is interesting in that Carolina/LA game. The line dropped through 45 to 44.5 making the over forecast much more attractive. It failed.

Where have we heard that before? We have an attempt to draw OVER money that failed, once again, but this time in our very division as the night game.

These deliberate TAKES on that OVER play have not been equalized by one Sunday night power run.

It’s time for more GIVE and I am going with the forecast in picking up OVER 43 (-103) for the Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks.

As far as the upset moneyline, we have a lot of GIVE in these divisions on the moneyline and seeking the TAKE would draw us off of the upset forecast. Whenever something draws you off of a sharp upset forecast, be a little wary.

The upset is good bet, I may pass because it’s a night game and if it doesn’t come we will very likely find the one that will.

Good Luck.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

shit with 400 flags thrown on defenders any game has a chance of going over

[KVB]

That's the spirit CashFLow. Let's get some PI's in the endzone.

Of course, I could always be wrong tonight but I went ahead and closed out that open 4 pick.

It pays 8.297 to 1...

To Win	Short Description
	Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -110 for Game Football - 399 Texas -145 for Game Football - 456 New York Giants -149 for Game Football - 473 Buffalo Bills/Seattle Seahawks over 41 -138 buying 2 for Game
	Football - 471 Denver Broncos/Oakland Raiders over 44 -123 buying ½ for Game Football - 473 Buffalo Bills/Seattle Seahawks over 44 -110 for Game
Open	Football - 471 Denver Broncos/Oakland Raiders over 43½ -132 buying 1 for Game
	Football - 473 Buffalo Bills/Seattle Seahawks over 43 -106 for Game

The two pick pays 2.46 to 1 and the OPEN parlay is another 4 pick from last night.

The single play has 43 (-106), but make no mistake, I own it at -103 as well...lol.

[PerfectGrape]

cashflow bringing the funnies

[KVB]

[KVB]