Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**Ra77er** · 11-01-16, 09:11 PM

[QUOTE=KVB;26493846]Thanks for the bells Grapes, but I'm trying to generate a play here.

My forecast has Northern Illinois winning by less than two TD's.

Public gauge says it's closer, with a 5 or 6 point game.

I see money and reasons for a lot of BG bets yet the line stays so high. I'm taking a position with the 17 point favorite in Northern Illinois and let BG beat me.

Short Description

Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -105 for Game

Well, looks like there was a budge in the line, -16.5 will do just fine.

I also picked this up last night, before the move...

Short Description

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - Candidate to win the 2016 Presidential Election - Donald Trump +305

**KVB** · 11-01-16, 09:24 PM

I have a feeling I'm going to wish I had NIU in BTP, would be nice to have a winner this early in the week.

**KVB** · 11-01-16, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by Ra77er

...

Like I said, that Trump play I may sell back, let's see how far the Hillster drops as we head up to election day.

**KVB** · 11-02-16, 01:04 AM

**Auto Donk** · 11-02-16, 02:55 PM

**KVB** · 11-02-16, 07:15 PM

Grapes at the game!!!

**KVB** · 11-02-16, 07:37 PM

I took Cleveland +1.5 live online...

Short Description

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - Candidate to win the 2016 Presidential Election - Donald Trump +305

- Run Line: CLE Indians +1.5 -122.222 - Wed Nov 02 2016 19:48EST: CHI Cubs @ CLE Indians

**KVB** · 11-02-16, 09:34 PM

The sharpest line I create gives the Clippers a 7 point win at about 108-101. The opening line of 5 moved towards my line.

My non predictive public gauge makes it a 1 point with the Clips winning 104-103.

That TOTAL line is pretty sharp based on these numbers as well.

The Clippers could out play the public line here but it looks like the market wants to sideline some groups. In this situation it very often can be the upset and another metric I use is looking for that underdog.

I think it's bait for that inside look for the underdog. I have too many reasons outside of the forecasts to take the DOG.

I'm countering, knowing full well those reasons for the dog are valid. This is the NBA and those late night games tend be tough for the inside players.

To Win	Short Description
Open	Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -110 for Game
	Basketball - 520 Los Angeles Clippers -7 -110 for Game

Go Clips.

**KVB** · 11-02-16, 09:49 PM

In my opinion, if OKC gets a lead, Clippers live will be a good bet, but don't take more than -6, based on what I'm seeing.

**KVB** · 11-02-16, 10:00 PM

I took -3.5...

Short Description

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - Candidate to win the 2016 Presidential Election - Donald Trump +305

- Run Line: CLE Indians +1.5 -122.222 - Wed Nov 02 2016 19:48EST: CHI Cubs @ CLE Indians

- Point Spread: LA Clippers -3.5 -122.222 - Wed Nov 02 2016 22:18EST: OKC Thunder @ LA Clippers

**KVB** · 11-02-16, 11:15 PM

Took Clippers -2.5 (-117) and also Clippers -117.

I think the Thunder fold in the 4th.

Short Description

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - Candidate to win the 2016 Presidential Election - Donald Trump +305

- Run Line: CLE Indians +1.5 -122.222 - Wed Nov 02 2016 19:48EST: CHI Cubs @ CLE Indians

- Point Spread: LA Clippers -3.5 -122.222 - Wed Nov 02 2016 22:18EST: OKC Thunder @ LA Clippers

- Point Spread: LA Clippers -2.5 -117.172 - Wed Nov 02 2016 22:18EST: OKC Thunder @ LA Clippers

- Money Line: LA Clippers -117.172 - Wed Nov 02 2016 22:18EST: OKC Thunder @ LA Clippers

**KVB** · 11-02-16, 11:57 PM

Cubbies get the win, but only by one, and Grapes is there!! Everyone wins...

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by KVB

...The Clippers could out play the public line here but it looks like the market wants to sideline some groups. In this situation it very often can be the upset and another metric I use is looking for that underdog.

I think it's bait for that inside look for the underdog. I have too many reasons outside of the forecasts to take the DOG.

I'm countering, knowing full well those reasons for the dog are valid...

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by KVB

I took -3.5...

Originally posted by KVB

Took Clippers -2.5 (-117) and also Clippers -117.

I think the Thunder fold in the 4th...

**SBRMAN23** · 11-03-16, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by kvb

lmfao

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 01:00 AM

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 01:12 AM

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 02:25 AM

I took the offered "Field" bet online for this week's PGA Tour event with Shriners. In looking at this house's futures, combined with the markets offered elsewhere and some capping, this looks like the right play at 5-1.

Short Description

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - Candidate to win the 2016 Presidential Election - Donald Trump +305

Golf Futures - 2016 Golf Events - PGA - Shriners Hospitals for Children - Odds to win Shriners Hospitals for Children - Field (Any Other Golfer) +500

Good Luck.

**Auto Donk** · 11-03-16, 04:28 AM

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 01:15 PM

lol Donk, next time she should just let her kid take the picture.

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 01:26 PM

smokenJ, manster, Jmon, CashFlow, Grapes, post some beats and tunes I need some new shit.

**Auto Donk** · 11-03-16, 01:30 PM

**Auto Donk** · 11-03-16, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by KVB

lol Donk, next time she should just let her kid take the picture.

hahah!

i think the ho in the photo i put up got "mom of the year".....

meanwhile, ol Weiner is facing charges for takin' a photo with his kid in it

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 02:12 PM

I'm telling you there is an international ring that runs deep. I doubt it gets exposed, but I think we can see a little more of who is involved.

**PerfectGrape** · 11-03-16, 06:56 PM

took in the greatest game of all time in the presence of family and cubs legends. 3 rows behind kerry, 5 rows behind ryno and dempster. as kerry was leaving his seats in the 10th, pushed towards the aisle, stuck out my hand and said "go cubs!" then he smiled and high fived me with the same hand that struck out 20. pounded cubs ML too and took bryant total bases vs lindor (won 1-0)

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 07:08 PM

I'm regretting no putting that NIU in BTP. I need plays. All I have is TB for tonight but it is stinky...but I need plays.

Here are some numbers...

I have a tie, just like last Thursday of 28-28. This time the dog has the half point edge in the raw score. At 28-28, a bet is triggered at +4 and +4.5. Last week it was the favorite winning, this week could be different.

Stacking forecast says Atlanta wins 28-21.

Public gauge says Atlanta wins 31-27.

That's two OVER predictions, with one forecast right on. I've mentioned totals being at market with that stacking forecast before.

This game may not be the high scoring game everyone is playing out in their heads. The UNDER is not a bad play.

I feel like the books were right on the early opener and this move past 4 is designed to trigger underdog plays on some sharper groups. Often we see a give by groups who will later take when the public is rallying or desperate in their action.

I am highly suspicious and am afraid I will have to pass on what could be a good TB play at home.

We want winners here. No more messing around.

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

took in the greatest game of all time in the presence of family and cubs legends. 3 rows behind kerry, 5 rows behind ryno and dempster. as kerry was leaving his seats in the 10th, pushed towards the aisle, stuck out my hand and said "go cubs!" then he smiled and high fived me with the same hand that struck out 20. pounded cubs ML too and took bryant total bases vs lindor (won 1-0)

You know it's coming...

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 07:31 PM

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 07:45 PM

I went live after the first score, I took Atlanta to win...

Short Description

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - Candidate to win the 2016 Presidential Election - Donald Trump +305

Golf Futures - 2016 Golf Events - PGA - Shriners Hospitals for Children - Odds to win Shriners Hospitals for Children - Field (Any Other Golfer) +500

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - US 2016 Presidential Election - by State - State Winner - Florida - Republican -110

- Money Line: ATL Falcons -132.323 - Thu Nov 03 2016 20:12EST: ATL Falcons @ TB Buccaneers

I also took Trump to win Florida, expecting some sort of movement if not hold for the win.

**KVB** · 11-03-16, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...I feel like the books were right on the early opener and this move past 4 is designed to trigger underdog plays on some sharper groups. Often we see a give by groups who will later take when the public is rallying or desperate in their action...

I know better than to chime in early during a game but this could be trouble for Tampa. Atlanta just may control this one from here on out. I know it's early in the game, but if I'm right then we'll have to be sure we're on the take when it comes...because it will come.

**KVB** · 11-04-16, 04:07 AM

Passing on Tampa for the NFL is one of those classic examples of avoiding a loser I always mention.

Anyway, Round 2 PGA matchups...

To Win	Short Description
Open	Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -110 for Game
	Golf - 7211 K. Bradley -190 for Game Golf - 7219 R. Henley -195 for Game Golf - 7227 H. English -160 for Game

This pays 2.752 to 1. I used the parlay to reduce risk in an attempt to increase the reward.

**KVB** · 11-04-16, 11:35 AM

That's Bradley vs. Els, Henley vs Petterson, and English vs. Cink.

The last two pairings should be available for a few more hours. Bradley and Els have teed off.

**Bostongambler** · 11-04-16, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by KVB

That's Bradley vs. Els, Henley vs Petterson, and English vs. Cink.

The last two pairings should be available for a few more hours. Bradley and Els have teed off.

Best band in the history of everness. In my humble opinion.

**Auto Donk** · 11-04-16, 01:06 PM

i was gonna eat your puzzy, then i got high

**KVB** · 11-04-16, 02:35 PM

Don't fuk with Afroman...