goodbye for now
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was gonna go pads again but chickened out and did a blues/cubs par
pomeranz was nasty, mark your calendars for when he pitches nextComment -
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I want to wrestle someone in this threadComment -
nothing wrong with one man wrestling another man
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Yeah, KVB will do it.Comment -
u down KVB ?Comment -
lookin for a playlist to give me and KVB something to vibe with while grapping
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when you click on this link you are going to see one of the best asses you will ever witness in your lifetime
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better than this one?
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For the record, KVB is also a lover, not a fighter. I have attacked and grappled with virtually nobody at SBR. I've never even voted on one of those burial polls. TTwarrior and BigDaddyQH have deservedly heard a bit from me, but not much.
But Ghenghis Kahn did far more than troll. He attacked me over multiple posts, in multiple threads, in multiple days all with lies, then says I have been "exposed." WTF?
Every punch I threw, every volley tossed, every shot I fired was done in a defensive nature and to help maintain SBR's accuracy.
My offensive campaign has yet to begin, but I will say the Forum will always be reminded that Ghenghis Kahn is misleading posters and does not tell the truth. His statements should always be checked for accuracy.
Always...
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You still want go CashFlow? Sometimes the ref has to warn me...
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The thing about Prince was that, despite rocking millions to their knees, he was always having the most fun of anyone in the room...
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spurs down to -1.5Comment -
I'm liking this movement. The markets have done a good job of splitting the money here. The sharpest line I produce still gives San Antonio the nod, even when including the most recent performance and a layer of playoff regressions.
I have San Antonio winning by about 7 points with a total of roughly 206 or 207. Many unsophisticated, non-predictive numbers give OKC quite a bit of credit, some giving OKC a 2 point win in a 200 point game. This lower total is indicative of the broader market and while the books were intentionally suppressing this line at near 195 as a whole, they succumbed to the pressure and have moved it upward; many bets are on that OVER. I believe the CFL thread actually addresses this technique in detail and is best shown by the example, like today.
Anyway the bettors are clearly far more split on the side than the total. For the moneyline, the mentality has been that the Spurs are the better team and will find a way. However, the cat is getting out of the bag about NBA home teams and game 7’s being exciting, so to speak, and I have seen money come in on the OKC money line recently.
The subtle half point spread drop is to keep in line, not with the heavy action on the spread, but with more and more action on the OKC moneyline.
I am inclined to bet against the spread movement there and with the cheaper and cheaper San Antonio money line, but haven’t pulled the trigger.
While the SA spread does represent a bit of value for sharp and the like, I am not too fearful the spread will increase as I continue to read the market signs
The total feels far too much like a gamble at this point but I would not take the Under. It’s the Over, with the rest of the world, or nothing for me. Since the line has moved and I didn’t address this yesterday, I’m passing.
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thank you sensei
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I’d like to add a word on the proverbial cat in the bag. Part, but not all, of what I am saying is that long term playoff stats are emerging about home teams that are leading a series 3-2 and their success in the 6th (home) game. There is other information like this out there (not sure I want to cite all examples) that are real easy for unsophisticated bettors to cling to as they make a choice.
They have a team up 3-2, at home, and have now seen the line drop, potentially creating steam.
Let’s add another layer. Because San Antonio is so often perceived as the better perennial team with a better coach, the general sense is that OKC is in a must win situation or they are doomed in San Antonio for game 7. The reality is that, being down 3-2, it is San Antonio that is in a true must win.
Unfortunately, the facts often get overlooked and those betting on motivations tend to be siding with OKC to win.
As far as game 7’s being exciting, as mentioned above (and a market players that think it will occur because of internal NBA desires and influences), that doesn’t seem to fit in my analysis as that would be reason to pick up San Antonio…and I have discussed OKC pressures.
I mentioned it above because the books could have used this pervasive public perception to their advantage, but they didn’t. I’m not going to get specific, except to say that if the books wanted to chomp on this crowd, and those on their fringe, the line would have been different, and the moves also predictable, but different.
These one or few dimensional handicappers will most likely give any San Antonio win back to the books in the very near future. I do not see signs that these guys are within the target range of the books, on this game. The books don’t mind their action here, and it helps to keep that money split.
In a broader analysis, I can’t get away from these earlier thoughts, which is why I haven’t already picked up San Antonio…
This concept can’t be denied and what surprises have we seen thus far in the NBA playoffs?
Despite the current market and what I read into the movement, San Antonio, in the end could be doomed. This is why, early on when faced with a choice, any Western Conference upset seekers, who went with OKC instead of Portland with the series prices are sitting pretty.
They are likely giving some back, adding to the SA bets. The books love this, they get bettors hedging, paying the vig again, and those books stand to make a pretty penny from those types of trades.
Ask yourselves…”What’s the biggest surprise we’ve seen so far in the playoffs? Or is the biggest surprise to come in the next round?” If so, what would that be? Not a bad way to approach, in general, but always do the handicapping.
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It's amazing to me there has only been one series game 7 home dog since 2002. While the home boasts a 78% Su, they are 63% ats during this time. Remarkable giving the time frame. I agree okc will be out to win this one, but I'm siding with the Spurs as I have a couple situations in going ride, win or lose.
Playing Phillies over, and probably will with a personal and Fidel's Cardinals sweep. I have already made money on the series, which is important to me.
Good luck FlymeComment -
this one's got -1 written all over it
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Good Stuff.
Players Talk this shit!
If I appeared to bloviate earlier, it's because the pastrami I had for lunch was bad...hehehehe.
Seriously though, if something seems off or sounds unnecessary, feel free to ask. A lot of times I am just thinking out loud.
I'm holding Grapes, but not for long, I've talked myself both in and out of the Spurs already twice today.
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I took Spurs -1.5 late last night in the contest.
GL to us
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Some houses getting hit hard and moving, others not budging. San Antonio backers are taking the spread at -1. It looks like a bit of reverse line movement but I think the books are bullshitting here. It's a decent shift, but not likely because of sudden action. I feel the books have withheld some movement, similar to the total earlier, and now the inevitable drop could be to create steam (like I was saying earlier.)
I'm in with San Antonio -112 over Oklahoma City, so far.
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I know the money is split on that spread but we are seeing a late hour push on San Antonio. This line is well balanced and moves tend to be countered.
After all, that's what Grapes and I were doing.
Books doing a good job here, in my opinion, of hanging around their number.
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was about to ask if you're gonna reup. passed on pk -110 at ended up with -1 -103. f it took another unit at -1 +102. site is getting slow. maybe start using p******.comComment -
That total all the way to 198.5, I feel like taking the Under on principal alone.
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. Cubs can't lose a double header at home right? lol
