The Seer's 2012 NCAAF & NFL thread

**Kansaska** · 10-20-12, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by Romanov

No, they can't. Not at pinnacle. That is the point...

I forgot Pinnacle was the magic book

**Kansaska** · 10-20-12, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by Romanov

No, they can't. Not at pinnacle. That is the point...

You still haven't answered my question though....who is moving it?

**tr4sh** · 10-20-12, 03:22 PM

this is just one of those days, every game we pick, we lose the turnover battle. Hopefully afternoon games will turn it around, it's about time variance works in our favor today

**sneakerhead** · 10-20-12, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Romanov

No, they can't. Not at pinnacle. That is the point...

I understand your argument but how can you come to this conclusion?

How would Pinnacle differentiate a 50k bet, whether its public or sharp?

**moodyt2** · 10-20-12, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by tr4sh

this is just one of those days, every game we pick, we lose the turnover battle. Hopefully afternoon games will turn it around, it's about time variance works in our favor today

Quit betting on awful teams like Minnesot, Cal, & Vtech

**Romanov** · 10-20-12, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by sneakerhead

I understand your argument but how can you come to this conclusion?

How would Pinnacle differentiate a 50k bet, whether its public or sharp?

How many idiots make 50k bets? Pinnacle has the most advanced bettor profiling system on the goddam planet

**Kansaska** · 10-20-12, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by Romanov

How many idiots make 50k bets? Pinnacle has the most advanced bettor profiling system on the goddam planet

But even if its not the public what makes you think that the line move is anything other than a lot of money coming in on one side? Why do you think that means its the right side to be on?

**Zulagin** · 10-20-12, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by moodyt2

Quit betting on awful teams like Minnesot, Cal, & Vtech

**martinmobley** · 10-20-12, 03:36 PM

look at what the public is betting... If they are betting heavy on one side and the line is moving in the opposite direction that means the sharps are betting heavy money which moves the line... the public changes the line earlier... smart money moves later...

**martinmobley** · 10-20-12, 03:38 PM

it's not about betting on awful teams.. awful teams cover all the time... you guys are too wrapped up in one bad morning.

**jihadvillager** · 10-20-12, 03:41 PM

that is right, there will always be losing days eventually- its a grind.

**Kansaska** · 10-20-12, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by martinmobley

look at what the public is betting... If they are betting heavy on one side and the line is moving in the opposite direction that means the sharps are betting heavy money which moves the line... the public changes the line earlier... smart money moves later...

But what proof do you have that this is smart money? It means a smaller amount of people are wagering a larger amount of money. That is it.

**Rone247** · 10-20-12, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by Kansaska

I live in Nebraska and have watched all of their games most more than once. Have also caught most of Northwestern's games as well. There is no way that Nebraska doesn't cover this spread UNLESS they turn the ball over 3-4 times like they are sometimes prone to do. Nebraska has one of the most explosive and underated offenses in the country and see them putting up 40 easy out of a buy week if they limit their turnovers.

Great call because it looks that way.

**Vinnie Paz** · 10-20-12, 03:52 PM

Joe blows don't move lines
The sharp/pro/model group guys do
Books know who's who
If me or you go drop 25K on a side, doubt they'd (pinny) would blink....it's called whale action
Books have to respect certain players/groups that know what they're doing.... and move the line because if not they'll just keep gettin slammed repeatedly , and most can't afford to have that happen from these guys

Bottom line--they know the dart throwers from the pros

**DirtyBird1500** · 10-20-12, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by moodyt2

Quit betting on awful teams like Minnesot, Cal, & Vtech

Hey moody when are you starting your own thread? Looking forward to seeing your win % when you pick all "good" teams.

**moodyt2** · 10-20-12, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by DirtyBird1500

Hey moody when are you starting your own thread? Looking forward to seeing your win % when you pick all "good" teams.

I got Alabama, Georgia, Utah, USC, LA Tech, Iowa, Stanford. All are Stone Cold LOCKS!

**cmatth1326** · 10-20-12, 04:04 PM

Regression to the mean boys

**Kansaska** · 10-20-12, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by Rone247

Great call because it looks that way.

Yeah if 13-10 holds going into halftime I would load up on Nebraska 2nd half. I would guess it would be -6.5 or so. As long as the 2nd half line isn't more than that I would jump on. I've watched this game and their is no doubt who the better team is here. That doesn't mean that Nebraska's mistakes are over but they have had about the equivalent to 6 turnovers this half. Plus their defense is looking solid and their secondary has a turnover or two in them.

**Kansaska** · 10-20-12, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by moodyt2

I got Alabama, Georgia, Utah, USC, LA Tech, Iowa, Stanford. All are Stone Cold LOCKS!

I hate the fact that I agree on almost all of those games minus Iowa and maybe La Tech.

**moodyt2** · 10-20-12, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by Kansaska

I hate the fact that I agree on almost all of those games minus Iowa and maybe La Tech.

I got iowa from SEER

**The Seer** · 10-20-12, 04:09 PM

I would not play a game just because a line moved. As far as the st/Cal game goes, Cal had been playing extremely well the last few weeks. Stanford was coming off a controversial ending vs NDame . Cal averages more yds and the same amount of points and has a better pass defense. These are some of the things I consider. The guys that played Stanford did what they should have done and played the side they figured was right.

**Kansaska** · 10-20-12, 04:09 PM

Also a Huge middle opportunity taking ND -7 2nd half. I unfortunately didn't take BYU and took ND but that is a great middle for those of you who were smart enough to listen to Seer on that one.

**martinmobley** · 10-20-12, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by Kansaska

Yeah if 13-10 holds going into halftime I would load up on Nebraska 2nd half. I would guess it would be -6.5 or so. As long as the 2nd half line isn't more than that I would jump on. I've watched this game and their is no doubt who the better team is here. That doesn't mean that Nebraska's mistakes are over but they have had about the equivalent to 6 turnovers this half. Plus their defense is looking solid and their secondary has a turnover or two in them.

It's 14-10

**Zulagin** · 10-20-12, 04:11 PM

South Carolina is just falling apart. sigh..

Cal has 0 rushing yards and 0-7 3rd down.

Hopefully they get their crap together at halftime!

**moodyt2** · 10-20-12, 04:12 PM

any half time bets for you seer

**Kansaska** · 10-20-12, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by martinmobley

It's 14-10

Haha yeah they hadn't kicked the extra point yet but I should have assumed. Doesn't change the fact that NU is the play 2nd half.

**moodyt2** · 10-20-12, 04:16 PM

are yall betting halftime bets?

**Kansaska** · 10-20-12, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by moodyt2

are yall betting halftime bets?

I took a few

Texas tech O14.5 and TCU O14.5 TT small
Boise -11 small
ND - 7 medium
Nebraska -6 large

**The Seer** · 10-20-12, 04:21 PM

added
2nd half SCarolina - 1/2 -105 1 unit

**BuckeyeNick** · 10-20-12, 04:22 PM

for tonight, I like Toledo + points and Florida State minus the points. What do you think seer?

**BuckeyeNick** · 10-20-12, 04:24 PM

and for late tonight I like Fresno State and Nevada. Your thoughts seer?

**The Seer** · 10-20-12, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by BuckeyeNick

for tonight, I like Toledo + points and Florida State minus the points. What do you think seer?

I like Toledo but won't lay the points with FSU

**Zulagin** · 10-20-12, 04:35 PM

Kansas St. Collin Klein under yards 207.5 -140
Kansas St. Collin Klein under completions -15.5 -135
Geno Smith over yards 334.5 -120

Whatcha think?

**The Seer** · 10-20-12, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by BuckeyeNick

and for late tonight I like Fresno State and Nevada. Your thoughts seer?

It's over 2 Tds but I still like Fresno but I might go the other way in the Nevada game.

**The Seer** · 10-20-12, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by Zulagin

Kansas St. Collin Klein under yards 207.5 -140
Kansas St. Collin Klein under completions -15.5 -135
Geno Smith over yards 334.5 -120

Whatcha think?

no opinion, I rarely ever play college props