The Seer's 2012 NCAAF & NFL thread

[The Seer]

Great job Seer! You did it again. Now I'm upset that I didn't get in on the action. I am happy that the Texans managed to get the win though. Congrats to all of you that got in on the action.

glad your texans won but glad the jets covered

Seer is the man. BOW DOWN HATERS!

stay humble smokey, it can turn in a minute, no jinxing

Nice work! Smacked my local up tonight...Seer thx for all the work you put in I appreciate it like crazy! Best thread hands down! Have a great night sir

glad you won $

thanks kid, get em this week

Nice win Seer. Tailed both your prop bets, and I teased the Texans down to 3 and the under up to 47, so we're both winners

Still surprised the Jets covered, looked like it was going to get outta hand a few times!

Glad u profited. There's a reason why I dont make fun of people's bets especially after the first drive. GL this week.

[Smoooookeyyyyy]

Staying humble, just like all the smack talk and then whack. 4-0.

Just saying, you da man.

[The Seer]

Staying humble, just like all the smack talk and then whack. 4-0.

Just saying, you da man.

[paco]

Seer, there's a rumor going around that u are really billy Walters... And truth to this?

[The Seer]

Seer, there's a rumor going around that u are really billy Walters... And truth to this?

No, I wish I had his assets though! Good luck this week Paco.

[tblues2005]

Way to go the seer. Had a good week. I thought 10 points on the road is far too much. Any NFL game where you get that many points at home is a very good play no matter who it is.

[moodyt2]

Hey Seer , what's your early leans ?

Great week last week! ON FIRE!!

[canepole]

greatpicking I believe in you

[tusky26]

Like the new avatar, but I appreciated how you represented for us bald guys with the last one.

I have been reading SBR for almost 5 years now, and this is the STRONGEST thread I have ever seen. I read you last year as well. The picks are the best part of course, but I also like how the haters are few and far between. When they show up, not only do your picks shut them up, but you have a faithful clan of us cronies that will run them off.

Thanks for not only being honest and legit and taking the time to share your hard work with us, but also thank you for not letting the immature fukks succeed in getting you heated enough to argue. That's all they are trying to do. They go into threads to get people to talk trash to destroy the quality and context of it.

PROPS all the way around man.

[The Seer]

thanks guys

moody, still a little early for sure but some leans are: ncaaf -troy, pitt, iowa st, ms, tt, vandy, ark, lsu, la tech, tn
nfl- mia, det, sea, gb

[Smutbucket]

please dont think Im trying to discredit you or hate on you. but what was your final thread tally end of last year? I remeber last year you were doing pretty well up until end of season you went on like 2-20 streak -25+units....

sorry but in this day in age/ with information good and bad so readily available, you never know what to believe. Now I dont know you personaly, or know anyone who knows you personally so I just need to take your word that you are honest capper who works hard to do what you do. But my skeptic nature says that it isnt entirely out of the realm of possibilities that real "books" and real "sharps" create threads like this, start off real well, get a lot on new gamblers to tail, and then bottom out at the end of the season, either using this to manipulate lines or create more profits for certain books. maybe last year this was just a coincidence and Im sorry if you are a good honest capper, who actually bets these games, and lost all these picks at end of last year.....just an observation I have....

I guess the only way to really prove you are who you say who you are, is to continusly cap successfully, which I understand is a very difficult thing to do......

because of reasons like this I tail very few people in these threads, I make my own picks, and work hard to come up with them...

that all being said, I appreciate what you do, and hope you continue to do well, as long as your intentions are in the right place

[2TrivBicc]

Dope new avatar Seer. I'm liking the Iowa St, TT, Detroit and Seattle leans. BOL this week!

[jaeguyoon]

thanks guys

moody, still a little early for sure but some leans are: ncaaf -troy, pitt, iowa st, ms, tt, vandy, ark, lsu, la tech, tn
nfl- mia, det, sea, gb

Any lines out there u think its better to grab it early?

[Cuse4tw]

Smut,

Feel free to take off the tinfoil hat pal

[Smutbucket]

ha good one, ur like the 4th person I heard say that hilarious joke, you come up with that all by yourself? I see you already have a tight following of lazy people who cant cap for shit and just bow down to whatever you say

silly me for questioning authority, I was trying to be as honest/open/nice about it as possible

my tinfoil hat is protecting me from getting buried like anyone else who did who was blindly tailing him at end of last season, sorry If ur just finding this out,

[jihadvillager]

please dont think Im trying to discredit you or hate on you. but what was your final thread tally end of last year? I remeber last year you were doing pretty well up until end of season you went on like 2-20 streak -25+units....

sorry but in this day in age/ with information good and bad so readily available, you never know what to believe. Now I dont know you personaly, or know anyone who knows you personally so I just need to take your word that you are honest capper who works hard to do what you do. But my skeptic nature says that it isnt entirely out of the realm of possibilities that real "books" and real "sharps" create threads like this, start off real well, get a lot on new gamblers to tail, and then bottom out at the end of the season, either using this to manipulate lines or create more profits for certain books. maybe last year this was just a coincidence and Im sorry if you are a good honest capper, who actually bets these games, and lost all these picks at end of last year.....just an observation I have....

I guess the only way to really prove you are who you say who you are, is to continusly cap successfully, which I understand is a very difficult thing to do......

because of reasons like this I tail very few people in these threads, I make my own picks, and work hard to come up with them...

that all being said, I appreciate what you do, and hope you continue to do well, as long as your intentions are in the right place

Last year was pretty crazy. A lot of the public faves cashed like crazy both in NCAAFB & NFL and I know a ton of good cappers that took a licking last year. Seer has nothing to gain by posting losing picks and everyone has the right to not follow. He was dealing with a family illness too around bowl season which probably added some unnecessary stress. In gambling, it is pretty normal to have hot and cold streaks. Reversion to the mean. He went on a crazy tear before he hit that last cold streak so maybe it is just the law of averages. Hopefully he stays hot but I have been tailing since last year through the good and the bad- heck of a lot better I could have done myself. If you are doing your own capping then it is good to see what other people are doing. For people just trying to tail, it is always possible to be dangerous to hop on a hot capper AFTER his hot streak. If you don't follow all then sometimes it is like buying a stock high- you may get hit when the bubble bursts and not hang around long enough for the next hot streak.

[Smutbucket]

Last year was pretty crazy. A lot of the public faves cashed like crazy both in NCAAFB & NFL and I know a ton of good cappers that took a licking last year. Seer has nothing to gain by posting losing picks and everyone has the right to not follow. He was dealing with a family illness too around bowl season which probably added some unnecessary stress. In gambling, it is pretty normal to have hot and cold streaks. Reversion to the mean. He went on a crazy tear before he hit that last cold streak so maybe it is just the law of averages. Hopefully he stays hot but I have been tailing since last year through the good and the bad- heck of a lot better I could have done myself. If you are doing your own capping then it is good to see what other people are doing. For people just trying to tail, it is always possible to be dangerous to hop on a hot capper AFTER his hot streak. If you don't follow all then sometimes it is like buying a stock high- you may get hit when the bubble bursts and not hang around long enough for the next hot streak.

thanks for your response, I agree with a lot of what you said,

since you have been following closely, maybe you can answer the question I asked at the top, final thread tally from 2011/ NCAA/NFL Thread?

[jihadvillager]

don't have it handy right now, but beginning of season was a struggle, battled and grinded back with small plays all season long till the end, then went on a crazy tear- then lost most of the big run back ended up a little down for the entire season- i think the fact that even though he started out in a hole the fact Seer kept posting consistently & kept grinding it out shows his discipline as these are his real bets.

[Romanov]

Smut,

Even the best lose 45% of the time. Let us say that Seer is actually a 55% capper long term. He has been making about 35 plays per week. Multiply that by 13 weeks, add in another 4 weeks of about 6 nfl plays per week, and you get a total play count of 479. Add in playoffs and bowls and we can round this to 500 plays per football year. It probably is more.

We could expect a 55% capper to have a streak of LOSSES of about:

(1-.55)^k = 1/500

k = 8

So if such a streak came at the end of the 500 plays, it would appear that he would lose ~20 units depending on unit size, toss in a more wins and a few more losses and a poor end to the season is within the realm of expectancy.

edit: google is your friend:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1242859-seers-2011-ncaaf-nfl-thread-p46.html

[Smutbucket]

jihad thanks for your input, information, and time, it is greatly appreciated

romanov,
I dont need to hear your statistics about what you heard the best are capable of doing. (ive heard them all before ) and I believe in the capabilities of the people, and what one can accomplish if he really sets his mind to. People have always proven the numbers and statistics wrong of "whats expected" thruout history, your way of thinking is a disease, and it limits the potential of the people.

[Romanov]

jihad thanks for your input, information, and time, it is greatly appreciated

romanov,
I dont need to hear your statistics about what you heard the best are capable of doing. (ive heard them all before ) and I believe in the capabilities of the people, and what one can accomplish if he really sets his mind to. People have always proven the numbers and statistics wrong of "whats expected" thruout history, your way of thinking is a disease, and it limits the potential of the people.

I didn't say a thing about what the best are capable of doing. I said if somebody is a 55% capper, they can expect a losing streak of 8 in a series of 500 plays. You seem to be intimidated but there is no need to be.

[The Seer]

smut, it's been talked about in the thread already about the top 10 teams covering every number linesmakers put out last year. jihad's assessment is right on. I had to battle back and it was a grind. It's actually helped this year though. I learned from it so I changed a few things and have been more conservative. The way I handicap a college game is much different than a pro one. I always caution anyone that tails & don't recommend blindly tailing anyone. I like doing the thread because it helps me stay more disciplined. As far as working for the books, lol, I haven't heard that one before. Maybe Loshack could attest to the fact that I'm not as we have talked on skype.

[The Seer]

Any lines out there u think its better to grab it early?

I'm gonna probably go ahead & grab ark & lsu for 2 units each

[moodyt2]

I'm gonna probably go ahead & grab ark & lsu for 2 units each

So go ahead and lock in Arkansas -17 and LSU -2?

[Smutbucket]

Thanks seer for your response, good luck this season, looking forward to seeing your picks

[moodyt2]

Tennessee coach Derek Dooley underwent surgery on his fractured right hip Tuesday but plans to guide the Vols from the coaches’ booth in the press box Saturday at Mississippi State.
Dooley first revealed the hip injury at practice Tuesday. Tennessee said in a release that Dooley had been experiencing hip pain for the last two months. An MRI on Friday revealed a fracture that required immediate surgery.
The surgery was conducted after practice by Dr. Russell Betcher and Dr. Greg Mathien of the Knoxville Orthopedic Clinic at the UT Medical Center.
The Vols (3-2, 0-2 SEC) play at No. 19 Mississippi State (5-0, 2-0) on Saturday (TV: ESPNU, 9 p.m.)
Tennessee said that Dooley hopes to resume normal on-field coaching activities next week, but the decision will be made “in consultation” with his doctors.linky


Does things like this factor into your picks or does it have no effect at all?

[The Seer]

So go ahead and lock in Arkansas -17 and LSU -2?

yes

Thanks seer for your response, good luck this season, looking forward to seeing your picks

Does things like this factor into your picks or does it have no effect at all?

I look at everything I can & I knew about that but it doesn't weigh much with me this week.

[moodyt2]

Will you go ahead and have a write up on Arky and LSU?

[Matches Malone]

• SBR Posters
  Son of a bitch!
  How the hell did you get Oklahoma-Michigan?
  Nobody ever had Oklahoma-Michigan... How the hell'd you do it?

• The Seer
  Well, that's why they paid so well.

• SBR Posters
  You see? Never tells me nothin'.
  What do we got on for next week?

• The Seer
  Well, it's a little too early. I'd say Thursday would be good. Is that all right?

• SBR Posters
  Okay, you'll come by the house?

• The Seer
  I'll come by.

• The Seer
  7:00. Good job, my boy. Keep it up? Okay, Seer?
  
  Hey, jjgold. Vien acca.

• jjgold
  I'll be right out.

• SBR Posters
  T'aggia parla.
  jj, see that guy? Keep a good eye on him.
  
  He's makin' a lot of money for us.
  
  And he's gonna continue makin' a lot of money for us, so keep a good eye on him.
  Not like your fuckin' friends out there that... without brains.
  Okay?

• jjgold
  All right.

[The Seer]

Will you go ahead and have a write up on Arky and LSU?

Here's a few thoughts: I think Florida may have the best defense in the country right now & not Alabama. LSU just ran into a revenge minded team that's playing as well as anyone in the country. FLorida has beaten some good teams on the road and it has been due to great QB play and dominating defense especially in the 2nd half. Now, LSu will be back at home playing a night game in Death Valley which I believe is worth 5 points in itself. Mettenberger will be more comfortable. HE wasn't as bad as perceived . He had a 56 yder stripped from Beckham which I thought changed the entire game. That was a big swing. Despite everything that went wrong, they were still in it til the end. LSU would be a TD fave if not for the events of last weekend. SC has been getting much better under Spurrier but I don't think they are ready to wallop Georgia at home & then go beat LSU on the road. The SC players have never played there either so they have no idea what it will be like. Everybody has been patting them on the back this week. It's tough for 18-22 yr old kids to refocus unless they are used to it as it is tough for 18-22 yr old kids to get excited about playing Towson St & a terrible Auburn team. To me, LSU giving less than a fg at home at night is a no-brainer for a wager no matter who they are playing in college football.

[The Seer]

for Sat:

Arkansas -17 -110 2 units
LSU -2 1/2 -110 2 units

[Pistol_Peter]

Don't think think the line may shift in favor of both LSU and Arkansas closer to game day?

[The Seer]

Don't think think the line may shift in favor of both LSU and Arkansas closer to game day?

doubt it & didn't want to take the chance

[jihadvillager]

LSU already moving to -2.5 -115 on a lot of books, public gonna be on South Carolina for sure cause they only see last week's game with SC smashing GA & LSU losing to FL.

[LawHog]

for Sat:Arkansas -17 -110 2 units

Seer, I'm a religious follower of your NCAA calls, and you deserve immense credit for making betting fun for many of us this year. I've made well over 10 units on your picks alone.

I'm also an Arkansas graduate living in Fayetteville, and this is the worst and most rudderless Razorback team we have fielded in my 30 years of being a fan, and I struggle to believe we can beat Kentucky, much less by 17. I called the ULM cover earlier in this thread, and they beat us. Auburn is by leaps and bounds the worst and most hopeless team in the SEC, so that win last week means next to nothing. Can you convince me not to take Kentucky by +17, or even on the ML, at this point?