The 15 Rules

[TheLock]

donjuan/durito

is it really necessary to continue baiting the OP?

we get it. you're smart and we are stupid wastes of oxygen only here to be ridiculed and laughed at by the almighty all knowing gods of sportsbetting.

satisfied yet?

[Hoja Verdes]

Please explain one thing to me. Why can one not bet 2 games that are played at the same time ?

Because then you can't use his Martingale variation of escalating bet size based on the outcome of the previous bet rather than on each successive bet's relative value.

[St. Andrew]

Please explain one thing to me. Why can one not bet 2 games that are played at the same time ?

Because the results of each game determine how much to bet on the next one. If you have two going at the same time they could cancel each other out, ruining the pyramid, and it also opens the door to a lack of discipline. The system is designed for winning streaks.

It's in Bankroll Management, first post.

[pokernut9999]

Damn rjt !!!!! You are only going to be up +69 units after tonight , maybe you should start following some of these rules.

[durito]

Bankroll Management

You sure I can't book your bets?

You can pick from Matchbook, Pinnacle, 5dimes, Cris, or Greek lines

[donjuan]

is it really necessary to continue baiting the OP?

we get it. you're smart and we are stupid wastes of oxygen only here to be ridiculed and laughed at by the almighty all knowing gods of sportsbetting.

satisfied yet?

I'm not baiting anyone but rather asking pertinent questions. You're right in that the vast majority of posters on SBR should be reading more than writing though.

[rjt721]

Damn rjt !!!!! You are only going to be up +69 units after tonight , maybe you should start following some of these rules.

No more totals, no faves higher than -139, no more RLs and no more betting games played at the same time. What was I thinking?

[St. Andrew]

Yet you changed your entire system midway through the thread when you decided to only play two game parlays based on the results of a gigantic sample of 27 parlays

With an average return of +160, I don't even need to hit a high percentage of 2-teamers to be profitable. Yet I predict that not only will I hit 60%, I will also mount several win streaks of 5-7 games. We'll just have to see what happens. I need goals in order to stay disciplined.

[durito]

You think you can win 60% at +160?

Now I've really heard it all.

How about this:

I will give you 3 to 1 odds you can't hit 60% of your two team parlays over the next 50 plays (assuming average payout odds of +160 or higher).

[Hoja Verdes]

With an average return of +160, I don't even need to hit a high percentage of 2-teamers to be profitable. Yet I predict that not only will I hit 60%, I will also mount several win streaks of 5-7 games. We'll just have to see what happens. I need goals in order to stay disciplined.

That's a bold prediction. Just promise to post all your plays here so we can follow your progress over the next few weeks.

[smitch124]

That's a bold prediction. Just promise to post all your plays here so we can follow your progress over the next few weeks.

He's been posting every play, all season.

[St. Andrew]

You think you can win 60% at +160?

Now I've really heard it all.

How about this:

I will give you 3 to 1 odds you can't hit 60% of your two team parlays over the next 50 plays (assuming average payout odds of +160 or higher).

This is where I tell you that this is my hobby, but if you want to make a serious wager with me I will challenge you straight-up for any amount of money that you specify. Are you interested in doing that?

[TheLock]

You think you can win 60% at +160?

Now I've really heard it all.

How about this:

I will give you 3 to 1 odds you can't hit 60% of your two team parlays over the next 50 plays (assuming average payout odds of +160 or higher).

60% will be really tough.

What odds would you give him if he hit 55%?

[donjuan]

You think you can win 60% at +160?

Now I've really heard it all.

How about this:

I will give you 3 to 1 odds you can't hit 60% of your two team parlays over the next 50 plays (assuming average payout odds of +160 or higher).

Bingo. Make this thread at least worthwhile/backed up with something. I'd be up for that prop bet as well.

[durito]

This is where I tell you that this is my hobby, but if you want to make a serious wager with me I will challenge you straight-up for any amount of money that you specify. Are you interested in doing that?

For the terms of the bet I offered, or for something else?

[TheLock]

He's been posting every play, all season.

This.

[jtuck]

Proper Bankroll Management

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Kelly+Calculator.aspx

http://matchbook.com/

[donjuan]

This is where I tell you that this is my hobby

In other words, "I am not willing to back up a single thing I say with money."

[St. Andrew]

For the terms of the bet I offered, or for something else?

For you and me one-on-one. I'll set the terms. My money promise is rock-solid.

[St. Andrew]

Deafening Silence

[BeatTheJerk]

"This could go on forever Baby"

[rjt721]

Deafening Silence

It's been three minutes.

[durito]

For you and me one-on-one. I'll set the terms. My money promise is rock-solid.

Propose a bet in good faith, and I will evaluate it and determine my strategy from there like I do with any bet.

I've already offered you 3 to 1 on something you think you can do. What is wrong with that specific bet?

[donjuan]

Deafening Silence

Keep moving the goalposts. Why wouldn't you take +300 on hitting 60% at +160 when you say you will do that (presumably easily)?

[TheLock]

In other words, "I am not willing to back up a single thing I say with money."

AKA, "Baiting".


This thread is starting to get back on track a little, don't dummy it back up.

[durito]

60% will be really tough.

What odds would you give him if he hit 55%?

Ignoring the parlay for a minute,

55% at +160 is an edge of 43%. These kind of edges just don't exist in sportsbetting.

If they did, you could turn a $5,000 bankroll into $280,776,459 in just 100 bets by following the kelly criterion.

[St. Andrew]

Propose a bet in good faith, and I will evaluate it and determine my strategy from there like I do with any bet.

I've already offered you 3 to 1 on something you think you can do. What is wrong with that specific bet?

Alot of my parlays are in the +150 range. Go that low and you're on. 60% from now until the end of the year, and I have to make a minimum of 25 bets. If you're telling me you will give me three to one on that, I will take it.

[St. Andrew]

Byrd is about to get exploded on

[BeatTheJerk]

yeah maybe but don't bust a nut on yourself just yet .................

[St. Andrew]

Harden may throw a no-hitter if he can keep the pitch count down. D-Backs aren't in the same zip code.

[Hoja Verdes]

He's been posting every play, all season.

Straight wagers, sure.

I predict that his win percentage falls off precipitously now that he's made the decision to play 2-gamers only. But I definitely wish him the best of luck and will be rooting for him to pull of the unthinkable...if he does, I'll paypal him $100 (up from my original $50), no strings attached.

Again, St. Andrew, PLEASE be sure to post all these 2-gamers here so we can see just how good you are.

[St. Andrew]

Again, St. Andrew, PLEASE be sure to post all these 2-gamers here so we can see just how good you are.

It's always been there, all 28 that I've already placed. Why stop now?

[TheLock]

Hoja

I'm like 99% sure he has posted ALL of his 2 teamers in 2008 (that's what you're alluding to right?)

[durito]

25 bets is an insanely small sample size.

So is 50, but I'm willing to take my chances there.

I propose:

1) 50 2 team parlays from now till the end of the baseball season or till you hit 50
2) Use lines from the Greek -- you must post in a thread we will create with the odds of the two games at the time (so they can be verified via SBRlines in case of discrepancies)
3) Your parlay odds can be +140 and above.
4) If you win 30 parlays or more you win, 29 or less and I win.

I will pay 3/1 odds.

[BeatTheJerk]

the odds on this kinda Scenario happening is like 30/1 ............ no ?