Before the All-Star game, we will have the State Farm Home Run Derby on Monday at 7 pm. If you are able to survive ESPN’s overkill coverage of the history of Yankee Stadium, there may be some money to be made on this entertaining contest. And this year, it will be all about experience.
Unlike the NBA’s slam dunk contest, which has steadily lost much of its allure over the years, the Home Run Derby continues to be enjoyable. As the great Greg Maddux once said, chicks dig the long ball. So do most folks, apparently.
Some missing notables from this year’s field include the Angel’s Vladimir Guerrero and Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard. Vlad won it all last year and Howard leads the majors in homers this year. Ryan’s left-handed batting power would’ve surely done some damage on Yankee Stadium’s 314 right field, and I’d be writing about who is going to come in second place.
Another missing slugger would be the moustachioed Jason Giambi. He was offered a spot, but had said that he would only accept if he was playing in the All-Star game. Then not only did he lose out to Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria for the final AL roster spot, but Evan was also then invited to partake in the Derby as well. Talk about getting owned. If Giambi accepted the original offer to compete, I would be looking for betting odds on “first player to lose a wild pitch in his top lip”. So sad.
These absences open the door for six exciting first time competitors, as well as two who have been here before. On to the sluggers and some predictions!
Josh Hamilton +285 – As the odds-on favorite in the Home Run Derby, Hamilton certainly has come a long way. Just years separated from a well publicized addiction that almost cost him his career and his life, Josh has been going crazy with the bat for Texas this season. His 21 homers are good for second best in the AL, and tied for 11th best in the Majors.
But this all seems a little bit too quick to be anointing him the as the favorite. I actually read a story today where he was in a home run contest for his minor league in 2000, and he recalls “stepping up to the plate, everybody watching me and my hand shaking like a leaf". Of course now in retrospect, that could’ve just been the blow. But assuming it was his nerves, how do you think this will play out tonight? On the most storied field being watched by millions? I am enjoying Josh’s season, and batting lefty will certainly help, but he will not make it past the first round tonight.
Lance Berkman +385 – This will be Berkman’s fourth try at the contest. He has finished last, second, and second last. This will be the one where he makes the big leap and wins it all. Tied for 9th in the Majors with 22 homers, the switch hitter has said that he will bat right handed, where he hits the majority of his dingers.
He has participated during even years, with alternating levels of success. I’m not really superstitious, but my lucky crow’s foot has been telling me all day that this is a winning pick. To find him at nearly 4 to 1 odds might even afford me a fancy rabbit’s foot after tonight.
Chase Utley +400 – Philly has three of the top four home run hitters in baseball (Howard, Pat Burrell) and Chase Utley is the only one who made the party. The Phillies have also won two of the last three derbys (Howard, Bobby Abreu). Chase should get past the first round, but just like the Phillies, will probably lose steam in the 2nd half.
Justin Morneau +400 – Justin was called up and invited to compete late on Sunday morning. Tied for 54th in the league with 14 homers, Morneau has to be considered a bit of a surprise choice. With those numbers, could Minnesota expect a Gary Gaetti goose egg in ’89 type performance?
Last year Morneau had a quick exit with only four homers in the first round. He chose his manager, Rod Gardenhire, to pitch to him. That was obviously a bad decision with Gardenhire’s commitment to defense. It wouldn’t surprise me if he paid Torii Hunter to go play the outfield and rob a few from his first baseman.
But something is afoot, and I feel that Morneau could go as far as the finals against Berkman. Many sportsbooks offer spreads on head-to-head first round matchups. I think Morneau could be especially valuable here, as opposed to winning it all.
Grady Sizemore +500 – Sizemore leads the AL with 23 homers and leads the country in breaking girls wearing pink Cleveland hats’ hearts. Wherever this guy goes, it’s like an Elvis concert. Girls screaming and fainting because Grady may have looked in their general direction. Absurd! No way this pretty boy gets past the first round. Now if we could get TOM Sizemore in there, I could get more excited.
Ryan Braun +650 – Ryan comes in sporting some impressive numbers, including his 23 home runs which is good for the Major’s fourth best mark. But an even better number than that, is the seven-year contract that he signed in May that guarantees as much as $51 million! His agent, Nez Balelo, helped orchestrate that for him.
So Braun is rewarding his agent by having him pitch to him. Now we all know that agents are a necessary evil, but we sure don’t want to see them during our sporting events. Braun will be chilling in the mansion that he helped buy Balelo by the start of the second round.
Dan Uggla +800 – Baseball’s number one HR hitting team, the Florida Marlins, are represented not by Hanley Ramirez, but by his double play counterpart, Dan Uggla. Good call either way, as both have belted 23 of them on the year.
Uggla sounds like some kind of monster that will be attacking New York City in a theater near you one of these summers. That alone gets him past the first round. But that’s about it.
Evan Longoria +800 – How long until Evan is doing commercials with Eva Longoria for L’Oreal? This guy’s popularity has skyrocketed, as evidenced in his vote-in All-Star spot and subsequent Derby invite. He wasn’t even on the Ray’s opening day roster, yet is a favorite for AL rookie of the year. He has hit 16 home runs this year and is destined for great things. And if this was an Unbelievable Saves at Third Base Derby, I’d be all over him. But tonight, it will be a quick exit for Mr. Longoria.
Advancing to second round:
Lance Berkman
Chase Utley
Justin Morneau
Dan Uggla
Lance Berkman defeats Justin Morneau in the finals.
Have you heard that its Yankee Stadium’s last year??
Unlike the NBA’s slam dunk contest, which has steadily lost much of its allure over the years, the Home Run Derby continues to be enjoyable. As the great Greg Maddux once said, chicks dig the long ball. So do most folks, apparently.
Some missing notables from this year’s field include the Angel’s Vladimir Guerrero and Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard. Vlad won it all last year and Howard leads the majors in homers this year. Ryan’s left-handed batting power would’ve surely done some damage on Yankee Stadium’s 314 right field, and I’d be writing about who is going to come in second place.
Another missing slugger would be the moustachioed Jason Giambi. He was offered a spot, but had said that he would only accept if he was playing in the All-Star game. Then not only did he lose out to Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria for the final AL roster spot, but Evan was also then invited to partake in the Derby as well. Talk about getting owned. If Giambi accepted the original offer to compete, I would be looking for betting odds on “first player to lose a wild pitch in his top lip”. So sad.
These absences open the door for six exciting first time competitors, as well as two who have been here before. On to the sluggers and some predictions!
Josh Hamilton +285 – As the odds-on favorite in the Home Run Derby, Hamilton certainly has come a long way. Just years separated from a well publicized addiction that almost cost him his career and his life, Josh has been going crazy with the bat for Texas this season. His 21 homers are good for second best in the AL, and tied for 11th best in the Majors.
But this all seems a little bit too quick to be anointing him the as the favorite. I actually read a story today where he was in a home run contest for his minor league in 2000, and he recalls “stepping up to the plate, everybody watching me and my hand shaking like a leaf". Of course now in retrospect, that could’ve just been the blow. But assuming it was his nerves, how do you think this will play out tonight? On the most storied field being watched by millions? I am enjoying Josh’s season, and batting lefty will certainly help, but he will not make it past the first round tonight.
Lance Berkman +385 – This will be Berkman’s fourth try at the contest. He has finished last, second, and second last. This will be the one where he makes the big leap and wins it all. Tied for 9th in the Majors with 22 homers, the switch hitter has said that he will bat right handed, where he hits the majority of his dingers.
He has participated during even years, with alternating levels of success. I’m not really superstitious, but my lucky crow’s foot has been telling me all day that this is a winning pick. To find him at nearly 4 to 1 odds might even afford me a fancy rabbit’s foot after tonight.
Chase Utley +400 – Philly has three of the top four home run hitters in baseball (Howard, Pat Burrell) and Chase Utley is the only one who made the party. The Phillies have also won two of the last three derbys (Howard, Bobby Abreu). Chase should get past the first round, but just like the Phillies, will probably lose steam in the 2nd half.
Justin Morneau +400 – Justin was called up and invited to compete late on Sunday morning. Tied for 54th in the league with 14 homers, Morneau has to be considered a bit of a surprise choice. With those numbers, could Minnesota expect a Gary Gaetti goose egg in ’89 type performance?
The moustache didn’t serve Gaetti well either
Last year Morneau had a quick exit with only four homers in the first round. He chose his manager, Rod Gardenhire, to pitch to him. That was obviously a bad decision with Gardenhire’s commitment to defense. It wouldn’t surprise me if he paid Torii Hunter to go play the outfield and rob a few from his first baseman.
But something is afoot, and I feel that Morneau could go as far as the finals against Berkman. Many sportsbooks offer spreads on head-to-head first round matchups. I think Morneau could be especially valuable here, as opposed to winning it all.
Grady Sizemore +500 – Sizemore leads the AL with 23 homers and leads the country in breaking girls wearing pink Cleveland hats’ hearts. Wherever this guy goes, it’s like an Elvis concert. Girls screaming and fainting because Grady may have looked in their general direction. Absurd! No way this pretty boy gets past the first round. Now if we could get TOM Sizemore in there, I could get more excited.
Chicks dig the long ball. And Grady Sizemore
Ryan Braun +650 – Ryan comes in sporting some impressive numbers, including his 23 home runs which is good for the Major’s fourth best mark. But an even better number than that, is the seven-year contract that he signed in May that guarantees as much as $51 million! His agent, Nez Balelo, helped orchestrate that for him.
So Braun is rewarding his agent by having him pitch to him. Now we all know that agents are a necessary evil, but we sure don’t want to see them during our sporting events. Braun will be chilling in the mansion that he helped buy Balelo by the start of the second round.
Dan Uggla +800 – Baseball’s number one HR hitting team, the Florida Marlins, are represented not by Hanley Ramirez, but by his double play counterpart, Dan Uggla. Good call either way, as both have belted 23 of them on the year.
Uggla sounds like some kind of monster that will be attacking New York City in a theater near you one of these summers. That alone gets him past the first round. But that’s about it.
Evan Longoria +800 – How long until Evan is doing commercials with Eva Longoria for L’Oreal? This guy’s popularity has skyrocketed, as evidenced in his vote-in All-Star spot and subsequent Derby invite. He wasn’t even on the Ray’s opening day roster, yet is a favorite for AL rookie of the year. He has hit 16 home runs this year and is destined for great things. And if this was an Unbelievable Saves at Third Base Derby, I’d be all over him. But tonight, it will be a quick exit for Mr. Longoria.
Advancing to second round:
Lance Berkman
Chase Utley
Justin Morneau
Dan Uggla
Lance Berkman defeats Justin Morneau in the finals.
