...and how'd that work out for ya?
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Waiting for the next Fade of the Century by Roxxyfish
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i made the mistake myself several years ago....one took once to learn my lesson.....favorites that big are suckers by the track......i stay away from those and watch from a distanceComment -
Lock of the fukking century!!!!! This will never lose!!!!! Bet your child on it!!!!!Comment -
THE FACTOR is going to be everyones "Lock" on Saturday at 3-5Comment -
Did this bet won?
For crying out loud it's the Lock of the Century.. It's a sure thing right?!
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No, it didn't.
On top of it not winning...it was the SQUARE play of the century. Take a 3-5 favorite that was the front-runner for the Derby favorite is not good gambling in horse racing.Comment -
If SBR had any balls they'd ban people who make lock threads and then say they never bet a $$$ on it. Original poster posts some good picks for soccer and others, but that's a pussy move and one that would get you killed in some places.Comment -
it was uncle mo's first time at 1 1/8th so that is a major risk and definitely worth betting against
ironically he still might win the derby I think secretariat lost the wood alsoComment -
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I'm not going to argue that Mo's pedigree is ready to take him 12f (anymore than Smarty Jones or Funny Cide), but this comment is an flawed argument I've been hearing all winter that I totally disagree with. His damsire is Arch, who just produced the Breeders Cup Classic champ and defacto champ Blame. Arch is by Kris S, who anyone who really knows breeding will tell you is one of the major producers of stamina in the American breeding circles from the Roberto line. Dixieland Band is from the Northern Dancer line in the 3rd generation of the female family.
Indian Charlie is his sire. Charlie was the Santa Anita Derby winner in a really fast 9f before being hurt in the Derby when Real Quiet won. The breeding is more pedestrian on that side but past Charlie, the 3rd generation sire is Caro, who produced the great Kentucky Derby winning filly, Winning Colors.Comment -
I am not aware of other peoples arguments in regards to this blood line.This forum is about as far as my research goes. What I am going on is the Dams side that has many Maryland connections.I was around a lot of these bloodlines during my time at the track.I am however going strictly on memory so please do not hold me to every statement.
If I recall correctly, I remember Hot Slippers as a sprinter.She trained almost exclusively at Pimlico( Charles Frock) and I think she won more races there than anywhere else.They had no 7/8 or mile racing and while she did run 1 1/6 and win (probably but not sure) she won more often at 6 F or 6 /1/2 at Timonium.So to me she is a real stamina issue.Her sire,Rollicking was a pure sprinter. 7/8s was stretching out for him.
Mississippi Mud ( Charlie Peoples) was a 1 1/6 to 1 1/8 horse. She did very well at those distances.When she tried 1 1/4 she got crushed but in fairness to her,those were the better mares on the east coast and she ,while very good,was a notch below them.
Cyane( Henry Clark,one of the best horseman I ever had the pleasure of sharing a barn with) was a solid stud in Md. but he threw many more 6F - 1 1/6 horses than he did 1 1/8.
Cyanes Slippers was a highly touted failure and am pretty sure she never hit the board.She just could not run a lick.
Dixie Slippers won 3 or 4 races but was nothing to even really care about.
As for Indian Charlie, I never ( probably unfairly) would give credit to a Calif. horse for winning on or with the lead.Back then,speed was so tough to overcome out there I refused to acknowledge a fast Cal. horses ability until they showed it elsewhere.
While I am well aware of Arch, Kris S, Roberto,and Northern Dancer as well as Princequillo, and others, the reason it is my opinion that 1 1/4 will be a problem for Uncle Mo is that if we have learned one thing from breeding it is that the flaw in the blood line almost always comes through.I think Uncle Mo's flaw is questionable classic distance.
I will say that if the track comes up muddy ,breeding suggests that he will take to it like a duck takes to water.A ton of solid mudders in his line.
Smarty Jones was certainly not expected to get 12F but was able to. Same with Funny Cide although not quite as bad.These same questions were there for both of those horses.( Must say that 1-5 in the Belmont was a free payday betting against Smarty Jones.Birdstone did not beat Smarty Jones that day. 1 1/2 did.)
Also, Barclay Tagg did a masterful job training Funny Cide.Barclay came up under Mr. Whitely who was a legend in the Md. circuit.Hell ,he was a legend period.I am not so sure that many other trainers would have been able to get out of Funny Cide what he did.I do not normally say that a trainer can make a horse go further than he normally would but if anyone did, it was Barclay with Funny Cide.
Breeding is an inexact science as we all know.And because it is a best guess situation until a horse proves what he can and cannot do, no one knows for sure.
What I offered was an opinion based on that.You might very well be right and he might run well but I will be as surprised as I was when Smarty Jones won it if he does. Sometimes horses defy the percentages. When they do, I usually lose.In my opinion,the percentage play is against him. That is where I was coming from.Comment -
Lock of the Century................................. ................
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why would someone do a write up on a 1-9?
not even worth it to begin with!Comment -
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