Sports Investements

[The Investor]

"Too Great of Expectations" is a mistake made by many gamblers and investors alike. Lets take a real look at what a $10,000 investment (bankroll) can make in a years time.

$10,000 CD with a 5% rate: $500 ($10,500)

$10,000 Mutual Fund Investment with a 20% return: $2000 ($12,000)

now those are some lofty numbers in todays world and marketsand they dont include taxes.

Lets now take a look at a $10,000 investment in the sports betting world.

Account Balance: $10,000

Trading Log: 0-0 ($0)

Trade 1. Toronto Raptors (-1.45) ML $36.25 to win $25

the raptors are on a 4 game home stand. this is a play on them to get one win. the amount to win on this trade is $25. we are going to risk up to a 4 game chase on the raptors winning a game. the opponents will be (den, det, knicks, hornets).

all the trades (bets) in this thread will be of the chase (martingale) style of wagering. all will include a minimum of 4 chances for a win. the account balance will not be refigured until a trade is completed.

the bets will be moneyline, ATS wagers and also O/U.

More as we move along.

[The Investor]

Let me tell you a little more about this strategy. First off it is not a mechanical system. The pattern of betting is mechanical but the games or series of games are handicapped.

We must always have at least a 4 game home stand to bet on or a 4 game road trip to bet against. Not all 4 game home stands will be bet on and not all 4 game road trips will be bet against. Handicapping only will determine the selections and also whether to use the moneyline or to bet ATS.

All O/U streaks of 6, will be bet against. This is the only mechanical aspect of the strategy. At times streaks of 4 or 5 will be used to go against.

More later.

[The Investor]

Trade 1 (bet 1) will continue with a ML wager on the raptors in their next game, detroit on the 26th. Will update at that time. The investment was small, in order to allow for a comfortable progession. No account balance will be figured until trades are closed.

Back on monday with Trade 2.

[Illtakethoseodds]

ill check out what you are doing here...

[The Investor]

trades (bets) will pick up once we get to the MLB season. This is a way to wager for all sports. Please understand we are making ultra small wagers, in relation to our intitial investment. The purpose is to invest and not to get rich (or broke) quickly.

This is not a play against all road trips or play on all home stands. All trades are calculated 4 bets in advance.

take for instance (Trade 1). we lost on the raptors today but we have a chance against the pistons on wednesday night and in this game, we may even be the dog on the moneyline and if we lose, our loss will be small and we can the recoup our losses and hopefully end our trade, when the raptors play the lowly knicks, next friday night.

we will also be making a Trade (wager) on the raptors to go Over the total in their next game as they have now played 5 straight Unders. This is a little used concept, the oddsmakers are aware of the consecutive Unders and will keep adjusting the lines downward.

more later.

[wallym]

i like the way you call it as an "investment"...looks like you have the plan worked out and have MM in place...all the best...will definitely follow this thread...

[The Investor]

thanks mods for moving the thread, as it will be a multi-sport investment thread that is going to run a while.


wallym, i am not an action junkie but ill try and make my investment grow as we move along.

the key is not to be underfunded. i hate being forced out of trades in the market, due to lack of funds necessary to hold a position. i look at this in a similar fashion.

ill be investing in both dogs and favorites, overs and unders, on home teams and against away teams. the trades will be to win different amounts and not just $25.

the key is in, looking in advance at the schedule and being able to cap one move ahead. dont let them shake you with a loss or two.

i lost toronto today but im not prepared to abort the trade, just as if i bought a stock this morning and it moved against me. if i still liked the stock (or trade) ill remain in it or with it.

back to finish trade 1 or to open trade 2. when the time is right, ill be here.

[wallym]

the key is not to be underfunded. i hate being forced out of trades in the market, due to lack of funds necessary to hold a position. i look at this in a similar fashion.

i believe the first rule of investing is "capital preservation"...

[donjuan]

The Kelly criterion cried.

[20Four7]

The Kelly criterion cried.

I don't understand why Martingale seems to win over kelly? If you can cap games correctly it seems like your giving up a large edge.

[HedgeHog]

SI:

Can you tell me what your edge (s) is (are) in Toronto's next 3 games? You don't even know the lines yet but are going to bet them if you lose. Betting w/o an edge is not investing.

PS Go with the 5% CD and lock in that 10k for 5 years.

[The Investor]

keeps getting harder to find the thread.

Account Balance: $10,000

Open trades: (Trade 1)

New Trades:

Trade 2: Pitt/NYI Under 5.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

simply fading the penguins string of 7 straight Overs. prepared to go against at least 4 more times, if tonights wager is a loss.
upcoming games are (NJ, NYI, NYR, NYR)

Trade 3: Denver Nuggets -7 (-1.20) $60 to win $50

fading the memphis grizzlies 5 straight (ATS) wins. prepared to go against at least 4 times. upcoming games are ( at sac, clippers and lakers).

back later.

[The Investor]

Wally some investments are riskier than others. Never put the rent money on this.


HH: once again, some investments are riskier than others.

the phoenix suns road trip is being skipped. they seem to have their act together. they have beaten the number for 7 straight and that is going to be a possibility for a trade, if that continues. no play on the celtics home stand. too steep for a moneyline play and coming off the road trip, they could struggle beating philly tonight and especially beating the number.

[jjgold]

Take the 10 Dimes and put in Dow Jones Stocks and in the long run you will make 50x more than sportsbetting

[DukeJohn]

keeps getting harder to find the thread.

Account Balance: $10,000

Open trades: (Trade 1)

New Trades:

Trade 2: Pitt/NYI Under 5.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

simply fading the penguins string of 7 straight Overs. prepared to go against at least 4 more times, if tonights wager is a loss.
upcoming games are (NJ, NYI, NYR, NYR)

Trade 3: Denver Nuggets -7 (-1.20) $60 to win $50

fading the memphis grizzlies 5 straight (ATS) wins. prepared to go against at least 4 times. upcoming games are ( at sac, clippers and lakers).

back later.

Your account balance you stated was $10K when you started. You lost that Toronto game and your balance is still $10K

I know you are chasing, but still, you should at least keep that correct.

Every time I read your posts I feel like I am watching a "Rush Hour" movie and Chris Tucker is saying, "Ain't no one can understand the words that are coming out of your mouth." Makes me laugh every time.

I am sure you feel you are on to something and I really do wish you the best of luck and hope you succeed

[jstblaze]

it is not a loss because the bet is not over.

it is a series of plays.

if you marked it as losing already, that would be like grading your bet at half time because your team is losing, and counting second half as a separate bet.

[DukeJohn]

it is not a loss because the bet is not over.

it is a series of plays.

if you marked it as losing already, that would be like grading your bet at half time because your team is losing, and counting second half as a separate bet.

Yes, I am aware it is a series, as I stated he was chasing. However, at the close of the business day his balance was lower. That is all I am saying. He can list as many plays as he likes and call it a series, but as in any liquid "investment" there are ups and downs. I was not commenting on a win - loss record. I was commenting on the actual current dollar balance that he is posting.

[jstblaze]

the whole point of it being a system is that you are not chasing. the second part is not chasing, it is part of the origianl wager methodology and part of the same bet. imo.

so if you owned a share of stock, you would care about all the different prices it hit all day long, or the price it was when you closed your psoition?

the only reason it would matter is if you were betting on margin and had requirements to meet along the way.

otherwise it is the same bet.

[DukeJohn]

LOL... Sorry I just found the idea that we are spending our time discussing a Balance amount and not his strategy funny. Okay so let me break your post up here.

the whole point of it being a system is that you are not chasing. the second part is not chasing, it is part of the origianl wager methodology and part of the same bet. imo.

As he stated:

this thread will be of the chase (martingale) style of wagering

Chasing and martingale are basically the same term. Chasing is usually found more in sports betting and martingale more in gambling. However, a martingale progression is usually associated with some sort of "system" IMO.

so if you owned a share of stock, you would care about all the different prices it hit all day long, or the price it was when you closed your psoition?

No, not the individual stock, however if someone asked me what the amount of my portfolio was, I would state it at it's current value and not say a value what I expect it to be in the future.

Now I understand we are still watching Trade 1 since now he needs to "chase" or "martingale" or whatever you wish to call it to make the "Trade 1" become profitable. However, basically I am saying this. If he was down to say $2000 and started 2 "Trades" He could easily be on the last legs of his Trades and not have enough to cover them. Then what? Now, we can't say he has $2000 just because he hasn't finished the trades.

Anyway, we are just talking semantics and it really doesn't matter. I like my way or you like yours. We both win.

[The Investor]

Account Balance would read: $9963.75, however to save a little time, i simply will write it when the trade closes.

The chase system is not for everyone but it has its advantages, especially when combined with other handicapping factors. Playing ultra small in relation to your initial investment is crucial as well.

If i invest $10,000 and after one year, its $12,000, i would be very pleased. That is why, this is more about investing and not gambling. For most people, they love to gamble, they need action and alot of it. What im doing has nothing to do with that.

There will be a thought process behind every Trade. The selection process for this is not Mechanical. The Sonics are starting a big homestand. There is a reason that its being skipped. Losers of 10 in a row and sporting a (10-23) home record has something to do with it.

lets just see what happens as we move along, ill check in every now and then to update things.

[The Investor]

3/23 Initial Investment: $10,000

3/25 Current Investment: $10,100 (+1%)

Closed Trades: 2-0 (+$100)

current open trades:

Trade 1: Playing on the toronto raptors to get one win on a 4 game home stand (currently -$36.25) on the trade. play 2 pending for the 26th.

New Trades for 3/25:

Trade 4: NYR (-1.60) $40 to win $25
fading the flyers 4 game trip. to win $25

Trade 5: Pacers (ATS) no line up. to win $50
fading the hornets 5 game trip (ATS)

Trade 6: Utah -13.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50
fading charolettes 4 game road trip (ATS) to win $50

Trade 7: Utah/Char Over 205.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50
fading charolettes 5 straight Unders. to win $50

there will be no additions for tuesday march 25. ill post the pacers line sometime tomorrow.

Initial Investment currently up (+1%) and i expect a good bit more will follow.

[The Investor]

Just a few tidbits. Trade 2 was closed with a $50 profit as the pittsburgh penguins string of 7 consecutive Overs came to an end tonight. Trade 3 was closed with a $50 profit as Memphis failed to beat the number, they had beat the spread for 5 consecutive times.

Take note we did not play on the celitcs to win either ATS or on the ML in their current homestand and they did lose SU tonight.

We are not playing against the Maverick's string of 5 straight Unders tomorrow night, as life without Dirk begins. If it continues to grow, we will keep an eye on when to jump on the Overs.

We are not playing against the Wizards road trip and this was a close call, as it is a cross country trip. However the first game is tuesday and will be at portland, who will be in a back to back situation. Game 2 of the trip, involves the supersonics. So starting off with these 2, ill skip the trip.

[mathdotcom]

Hey boys,

Just had to respond to this thread. Martingale doesn't work, plain and simple. Doesn't matter if it's blackjack, coin flipping, or sports betting. The Investor, it's not surprising that you're making money with this strategy - in the short run. But eventually you're going to get a crap string of luck and you'll be out your whole investment. A small but consistent return for a decent period of time won't compensate for the rare but painful time you lose.

An example:
Suppose you have $1000, can pick a winner 50% of the time, and start off with $10 bets. Then you can afford to lose at most 5 times. Your 6th bet is your last chance. The probably of losing 6 bets in a row is (0.5)^6 = 1.56%
This is unlikely, but the cost of it happening is huge. See how long it takes you to lose 6 times in a row flipping a coin. Run a simulation in Excel or some other program. Now if you say your chance of winning on any given bet is greater than 50%, then why not just bet it straight?

So far you're up $100 from an initial investment of $10,000. I hope this continues for a long stretch before the big hurt comes, or you'll be eating popcorn for breakfast like JJ.

[The Investor]

appreciate the comments and i dont like the martingale, when its used in a mechanical setting.

also, the investment capital is risk money and rent money. much the same as day trading in the stock market. my life will not change at all with the complete loss of the $10,000.

I can beat the sports market and get a better return on my money than a CD or mutual fund is going to pay this year and that pretty much sums it up.

[mathdotcom]

Whatever system you use to make your picks, there's going to be some uncertainty. Just because the loss of the $10,000 wouldn't ruin you doesn't defend the soundness of your investment. Sure your *typical* return will beat a CD or mutual fund, but a mutual fund is less likely to one day drop in value to nothing than your $10,000 is as applied here.

[Red_Sux]

appreciate the comments and i dont like the martingale, when its used in a mechanical setting.

also, the investment capital is risk money and rent money. much the same as day trading in the stock market. my life will not change at all with the complete loss of the $10,000.

I can beat the sports market and get a better return on my money than a CD or mutual fund is going to pay this year and that pretty much sums it up.

i don't see a difference between mechancial setting and use it when you have a good series of games coming up. unless there is correlation between the games, it is same to me.

martingale CAN be profitable, if you're not greedy. use it once and quit, then your sucess rate is pretty high (but you could lose all your bankroll on the first try).

here is the math, you have 100% probability of flipping 10 heads in a row if you flip a coin 1024 times. doing it sparingly, will only increase the time to ruin because you're betting less games.

if you're able to bet 1024 games using martingale without losing your bankroll (have enough to double up 10 times), then you're very lucky. (with even odds bet)

[Red_Sux]

think of it as playing russian roullet with 100 chambers and one bullet. would you play the game once if you could win 500 dollars? would you agree to play the game 100 times if you could win 50k?

[mathdotcom]

There's never a 100% probability of anything in coin flips. Instead of guaranteeing a streak of 10 heads in a row w/ 1024 flips, probability theory simply predicts or expects that it will happen only once out of 1024 flips. You're right that the less you use the strategy, the less likely you are to lose it all - but then you stand to gain less by using it more sparingly.

Basically, you're claiming that betting -110 on Heads in a coin flip is okay, so long as you don't do it too often. I disagree.

Another note:
In your example, to have enough roll to double up 10x, you'd need $1024 to cover a starting bet of $1. That figure goes up quickly. For a starting bet of $2, you need $2048. The Investor is starting at $25 or so!

[mathdotcom]

Assuming the first $500 is worth as much to you as the $500 that gets you to 50k, then yes, you should keep playing. If you're willing to play Russian roulette for those stakes (with a 1% chance of death), then you value your life at only $50,000 (assuming risk neutrality)!

[mathdotcom]

Okay, let's think of it this way. Suppose I say to you that we'll play some game where you have a 99% chance of winning, and I have a 1% chance of winning. If you win, I give you $1. If I win, you give me $101. You are saying this is a good bet for you, so long as you don't do it too often. Any negative EV bet is a bad bet.

[mathdotcom]

I have changed my avatar in honor of your post

[Red_Sux]

Okay, let's think of it this way. Suppose I say to you that we'll play some game where you have a 99% chance of winning, and I have a 1% chance of winning. If you win, I give you $1. If I win, you give me $101. You are saying this is a good bet for you, so long as you don't do it too often. Any negative EV bet is a bad bet.

that is my point of doing martingale can win you money. it is same as makeing a -1024 ml wager.

what makes martingale system really appealing is that for a period of time, you're consistently winning money. psychologically, that is a great felling...you feel invincible.

imagine you play russian roulett with one million chambers and with one bullet. each time you play, you get one dollar (if i am a twisted filthy rich guy, i might do this as entertainment ). of course the first 10 or 20 times you play that game, you're getting a dollar everytime. in fact you get to respin the chamber everytime you shoot, so there is 1 in a million chance of you dying.

here is the one million dollar question: how many times would you play this game?

p.s. thanks for the avatar...that hit the point of martingale betting system.

[Red_Sux]

if i am 90 year old i would play that game 10 times for fun...it is safer than going bareback with a 20 year old

[MrX]

imagine you play russian roulett with one million chambers and with one bullet. each time you play, you get one dollar (if i am a twisted filthy rich guy, i might do this as entertainment ). of course the first 10 or 20 times you play that game, you're getting a dollar everytime. in fact you get to respin the chamber everytime you shoot, so there is 1 in a million chance of you dying.

here is the one million dollar question: how many times would you play this game?

Kelly Criterion says zero times, and I'd have to agree.

[Red_Sux]

Kelly Criterion says zero times, and I'd have to agree.

i am old and allowed to give my winnings to my kids, i'll play it until i die.