At what point do the big public plays (faves and overs) stop cashing?
The books have to be praying for a split in this Dallas/New Orleans game, given what happened last week and in the New England/Detroit game.
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#2
I will say this, though -- there was no real indication that sharp money was ever on Dallas. That line kept creeping up, even at the best shops.
The under is a different story.
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ssk13809
SBR MVP
08-25-10
2595
#3
Just like last what was said last game NE @ DET Mid-2nd....
This game isn't even half way over. Why do people make the same mistakes over and over and over?
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#4
Originally posted by ssk13809
Just like last what was said last game NE @ DET Mid-2nd....
This game isn't even half way over. Why do people make the same mistakes over and over and over?
That over covered by a mile.
Sharp money was on the under here.
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chimp
SBR Wise Guy
01-17-10
742
#5
what's the sharp play for tonights game
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mcbaseball10
SBR MVP
02-11-09
2866
#6
As soon as I run out of money betting what I think is the right side.
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#7
Originally posted by chimp
what's the sharp play for tonights game
Doesn't look like there is one yet.
Public was on the Pats. That was the big one early. They favored the two overs (of course) as well.
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ChileCheese
SBR MVP
11-07-09
1957
#8
I wrote to you the other day that too many dogs were covering earlier in the year, and now its hitting its equilibrium.
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#9
Originally posted by mcbaseball10
As soon as I run out of money betting what I think is the right side.
I hear ya.
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djpremier36
SBR MVP
12-11-08
3479
#10
Originally posted by No coincidences
The books have to be praying for a split in this Dallas/New Orleans game, given what happened last week and in the New England/Detroit game.
NC, don't you know that books could lose every game this week and still be fine. Sharp, square, dull, books ...it all makes sense, but "sharps" don't care about the "public" or books...it's all about winning!
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statnerds
SBR MVP
09-23-09
4047
#11
If you are winning in the NFL right now,
how does it feel to be a square?
On the real though. Let me recap nearly every game of late...
fave and over
fave and over
fave and over
fave and over
Please don't think me bitter. Have survived worse streaks than this. And my NBA is on fire right now. But in all seriousness, if you won last weekend and today, you are a square.
I am not angry at all right now. Just pointing out that it is Joe Johnny Square time for the books. Books are getting crushed. What does that tell you?
So I feel it is my job to point out that if you are winning right now, you are more than likely, a square.
I bet even fukkin JJ and Brock are winning right now.
What does that tell you?
I only wonder how long it will last.
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stevex
SBR Hall of Famer
05-02-10
5122
#12
Variance?
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Ninersnut
SBR MVP
05-20-10
3730
#13
This whole forum is pissed the public is winning. Didn't realize how many shills actually flooded this place.
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sharper2
SBR MVP
03-30-10
2724
#14
Originally posted by statnerds
how does it feel to be a square?
On the real though. Let me recap nearly every game of late...
fave and over
fave and over
fave and over
fave and over
Please don't think me bitter. Have survived worse streaks than this. And my NBA is on fire right now. But in all seriousness, if you won last weekend and today, you are a square.
I am not angry at all right now. Just pointing out that it is Joe Johnny Square time for the books. Books are getting crushed. What does that tell you?
So I feel it is my job to point out that if you are winning right now, you are more than likely, a square.
I bet even fukkin JJ and Brock are winning right now.
What does that tell you?
I only wonder how long it will last.
taking all underdogs doesn't mean you're making sharp plays. sometimes the sharps take favorites, its all about spreads and what numbers they think they can attack and have an edge on
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Poppa Catfish
SBR MVP
09-22-10
3352
#15
Originally posted by Ninersnut
This whole forum is pissed the public is winning. Didn't realize how many shills actually flooded this place.
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bonduforlife
Restricted User
08-21-10
1222
#16
Jets Under should cash in today, 66% on the Over. I cant see the Bengals scoring more then 10 points.
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firedawg
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
10-08-08
39219
#17
bungles roll tonight.............. cash it
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brettley
SBR High Roller
11-15-10
148
#18
Originally posted by bonduforlife
Jets Under should cash in today, 66% on the Over. I cant see the Bengals scoring more then 10 points.
Where do you find the betting %s for totals? I know you can get sides at thespread.com but haven't found a site for totals.
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statnerds
SBR MVP
09-23-09
4047
#19
Originally posted by sharper2
taking all underdogs doesn't mean you're making sharp plays. sometimes the sharps take favorites, its all about spreads and what numbers they think they can attack and have an edge on
Agreed with that. But we all know the public is strictly Fave and Over. I played a fukk ton of Overs earlier this year. But 50.5 on the Saints game was a bad line, and here is the public winning again anyway.
And yes, it would be stupid to bet only dogs or faves. Don't think anyone is disputing that fact.
But these Overs are a different story.
Only 4 teams have cashed more Unders than Overs this year.
After this Cowboys game goes Over, it will 57% Overs this season.
99.5% of the posters on this forum couldn't hit 55%, let alone 57%.
Are the books too late to adjust, or will this extended period of variance end soon?
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ochenta y cinco
Restricted User
12-27-09
660
#20
Under is hitting in the CIN-NYJ game.
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bonduforlife
Restricted User
08-21-10
1222
#21
Originally posted by brettley
Where do you find the betting %s for totals? I know you can get sides at thespread.com but haven't found a site for totals.