At what point do the big public plays (faves and overs) stop cashing?

**No coincidences** · 11-25-10, 05:34 PM

I will say this, though -- there was no real indication that sharp money was ever on Dallas. That line kept creeping up, even at the best shops.

The under is a different story.

**ssk13809** · 11-25-10, 05:34 PM

Just like last what was said last game NE @ DET Mid-2nd....

This game isn't even half way over. Why do people make the same mistakes over and over and over?

**No coincidences** · 11-25-10, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by ssk13809

Just like last what was said last game NE @ DET Mid-2nd....

This game isn't even half way over. Why do people make the same mistakes over and over and over?

That over covered by a mile.

Sharp money was on the under here.

**chimp** · 11-25-10, 06:23 PM

what's the sharp play for tonights game

**mcbaseball10** · 11-25-10, 06:24 PM

As soon as I run out of money betting what I think is the right side.

**No coincidences** · 11-25-10, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by chimp

what's the sharp play for tonights game

Doesn't look like there is one yet.

Public was on the Pats. That was the big one early. They favored the two overs (of course) as well.

**ChileCheese** · 11-25-10, 06:25 PM

I wrote to you the other day that too many dogs were covering earlier in the year, and now its hitting its equilibrium.

**No coincidences** · 11-25-10, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by mcbaseball10

As soon as I run out of money betting what I think is the right side.

I hear ya.

**djpremier36** · 11-25-10, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

The books have to be praying for a split in this Dallas/New Orleans game, given what happened last week and in the New England/Detroit game.

NC, don't you know that books could lose every game this week and still be fine. Sharp, square, dull, books ...it all makes sense, but "sharps" don't care about the "public" or books...it's all about winning!

**statnerds** · 11-25-10, 06:50 PM

If you are winning in the NFL right now,

how does it feel to be a square?

On the real though. Let me recap nearly every game of late...

fave and over

fave and over

fave and over

fave and over

Please don't think me bitter. Have survived worse streaks than this. And my NBA is on fire right now. But in all seriousness, if you won last weekend and today, you are a square.

I am not angry at all right now. Just pointing out that it is Joe Johnny Square time for the books. Books are getting crushed. What does that tell you?

So I feel it is my job to point out that if you are winning right now, you are more than likely, a square.

I bet even fukkin JJ and Brock are winning right now.

What does that tell you?

I only wonder how long it will last.

**stevex** · 11-25-10, 06:55 PM

Variance?

**Ninersnut** · 11-25-10, 06:56 PM

This whole forum is pissed the public is winning. Didn't realize how many shills actually flooded this place.

**sharper2** · 11-25-10, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

how does it feel to be a square?

On the real though. Let me recap nearly every game of late...

fave and over

fave and over

fave and over

fave and over

Please don't think me bitter. Have survived worse streaks than this. And my NBA is on fire right now. But in all seriousness, if you won last weekend and today, you are a square.

I am not angry at all right now. Just pointing out that it is Joe Johnny Square time for the books. Books are getting crushed. What does that tell you?

So I feel it is my job to point out that if you are winning right now, you are more than likely, a square.

I bet even fukkin JJ and Brock are winning right now.

What does that tell you?

I only wonder how long it will last.

taking all underdogs doesn't mean you're making sharp plays. sometimes the sharps take favorites, its all about spreads and what numbers they think they can attack and have an edge on

**Poppa Catfish** · 11-25-10, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by Ninersnut

This whole forum is pissed the public is winning. Didn't realize how many shills actually flooded this place.

**bonduforlife** · 11-25-10, 07:12 PM

Jets Under should cash in today, 66% on the Over. I cant see the Bengals scoring more then 10 points.

**firedawg** · 11-25-10, 07:14 PM

bungles roll tonight.............. cash it

**brettley** · 11-25-10, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by bonduforlife

Jets Under should cash in today, 66% on the Over. I cant see the Bengals scoring more then 10 points.

Where do you find the betting %s for totals? I know you can get sides at thespread.com but haven't found a site for totals.

**statnerds** · 11-25-10, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by sharper2

taking all underdogs doesn't mean you're making sharp plays. sometimes the sharps take favorites, its all about spreads and what numbers they think they can attack and have an edge on

Agreed with that. But we all know the public is strictly Fave and Over. I played a fukk ton of Overs earlier this year. But 50.5 on the Saints game was a bad line, and here is the public winning again anyway.

And yes, it would be stupid to bet only dogs or faves. Don't think anyone is disputing that fact.

But these Overs are a different story.

Only 4 teams have cashed more Unders than Overs this year.

After this Cowboys game goes Over, it will 57% Overs this season.

99.5% of the posters on this forum couldn't hit 55%, let alone 57%.

Are the books too late to adjust, or will this extended period of variance end soon?

**ochenta y cinco** · 11-25-10, 07:26 PM

Under is hitting in the CIN-NYJ game.

**bonduforlife** · 11-25-10, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by brettley

Where do you find the betting %s for totals? I know you can get sides at thespread.com but haven't found a site for totals.

http://contests.covers.com/Handicapp...s.aspx?sport=1

**paco** · 11-25-10, 07:44 PM

nOCoin, hows my Cowboys ticket looking now?

**No coincidences** · 11-25-10, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by paco

nOCoin, hows my Cowboys ticket looking now?

Took them 2H.

**bonduforlife** · 11-25-10, 08:52 PM

Under looks hella good at this point, both teams are running the ball and the clock

**dwang0725** · 11-25-10, 09:23 PM

More times than not, 1st half and 2nd half are 2 different stories.

**brettley** · 11-25-10, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by bonduforlife

Under looks hella good at this point, both teams are running the ball and the clock

On the under as well.... Carson Palmer is horrible. I figured a 24-10 or 24-14 score like last years playoff game.