Broncos +3 versus Jets. Love the Broncos here.

[KJ90]

LB your saying if the line goes up to 3.5 before game time this is no play?

[lakerboy]

LB your saying if the line goes up to 3.5 before game time this is no play?

Yes. Of course some would like the Broncos with the hook but to me if it hits 3.5 its no good. I already took Denver +3 .

[jeeves]

Tough game. Good Luck

FYI:
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Denver's last 16 games at home
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home

[ronjon619]

Yes. Of course some would like the Broncos with the hook but to me if it hits 3.5 its no good. I already took Denver +3 .

why is it NO GOOD if you can get 3.5?

[Goat Milk]

why is it NO GOOD if you can get 3.5?

because he already booked +3 and doesn't beat the closer so he considers it a losing bet

[PROfitableEnergy]

i think the jets are the obvious selection

[ronjon619]

because he already booked +3 and doesn't beat the closer so he considers it a losing bet

huh? WOW. That must be some advanced concept. Does he teach a class of some sort about this? I'd love to see some of the other rules. You make a bet at +3, but the +3.5 closing / late action makes it unattractive or a non play? If anything I'd assume Bronco bettors would LOVE the hook and just root for a FG game.

[lakerboy]

Ronald for a guy who has been betting sports for 15 years like you have and to not understand the closing line and getting beat by it is essentially a losing prop over time I gotta really wonder.

[Goat Milk]

huh? WOW. That must be some advanced concept. Does he teach a class of some sort about this? I'd love to see some of the other rules. You make a bet at +3, but the +3.5 closing / late action makes it unattractive or a non play? If anything I'd assume Bronco bettors would LOVE the hook and just root for a FG game.

if you have +3 -110 already book for $500 and then the closer is +3.5 -112 then your just at a disadvantage thats all i'm saying

[raiders32]

Broncos cant run the ball. Jets will contain the passing game. Jets cover.

[ronjon619]

every +3 ticket I have ever bought would be much more attractive with that little .5 at the end of it. I just don't understand the concept, that all. I know guys who would have ADDED on when the +3 turns into +3.5. Tonight is a great example. I was sitting with my gambling buddy waiting for the KSU slaughter to begin. We both bought KSU @ -3.5. The line moves to -4 about 20 minutes before kickoff. My buddy runs to the counter to buy another $220 ticket on KSU. I stand pat with my ticket. So in your eyes I made the right move by staying with my ticket and my buddy made a gambling goof? So I was correct by not adding on right? But he made more $ than me tonight.

[Shafted69]

Looks like a trap line. Nice bet and congrats on the winner

















-

[Goat Milk]

Rondo what are you saying.

He initially had the better line when you guys bet it at -3.5. It closed at -4, and he had -3.5, therefore, he beat the closer and has a winning bet regardless of the outcome. He added more because he saw the late move and liked it I am assuming.

In LBs case he has +3. He already locked in his bet like you have. Then come SUnday the line moved to +3.5. Now he doesn't feel very confident with his play because he didn't get the best available number.

The same situation to you and your friend and LB would be the Broncos moving to +2.5 at the last minute and LB would add more onto his play. Not moving to +3.5

[ronjon619]

Rondo what are you saying.

He initially had the better line when you guys bet it at -3.5. It closed at -4, and he had -3.5, therefore, he beat the closer and has a winning bet regardless of the outcome. He added more because he saw the late move and liked it I am assuming.

In LBs case he has +3. He already locked in his bet like you have. Then come SUnday the line moved to +3.5. Now he doesn't feel very confident with his play because he didn't get the best available number.

The same situation to you and your friend and LB would be the Broncos moving to +2.5 at the last minute and LB would add more onto his play. Not moving to +3.5

OK got it. Just lots of over thinking going on. yes +3.5 would be a move in the opposite direction. Would LB add on if the line goes to 2.5? Because your right the Broncos at +2.5 would be like KSU moving to -4 tonight. So is that an automatic add on if they go to 2.5?

[Rig]

Orange Sunday!!

[ssk13809]

Jets are a very strong team this year

[rm18]

he loves the play, but if the line moves up it has no chance to him

[broadway6]

he loves the play, but if the line moves up it has no chance to him

did you not read any of the post above your none sense? you $5 bettors want to argue with someone that has posted more winners on this site than anyone else. maybe you should start reading and stop typing so much

[t-wizzle]

Books are clearly taking a stand here. No matter how many people bet on the Jets, it doesn't look like they will move them to +3.5.

[k13]

I like the play and yes if it moves to 3.5 its a no play.

I'd rather have a 2.5 than a 3.5 on denver, yeah it sounds stupid but most of you won't understand.

[big0mar]

he loves the play, but if the line moves up it has no chance to him

He never said no chance. He said he'd consider it a loser, because he would likely have lost whatever % edge he had.

The closing line is always the most accurate

[triqy]

LB you the man when it comes to NBA, so imma follow you on this one...Denver it is!

[ejt87]

If the line moves to -2.5 with the public on the Jets, POUND denver. And with the line not budging from 3 it smells like a sucker bet if you're on NY.

[rm18]

did you not read any of the post above your none sense? you $5 bettors want to argue with someone that has posted more winners on this site than anyone else. maybe you should start reading and stop typing so much

whatever I'm #1 in the NFL contest, and have moved plenty of lines in my lifetime

[Richkas]

Jets..........best team in football

[JayTrotter]

LB, I think some of the novices might appreciate some threads on gambling 101.. good lord knows some of us need it.

In your opinion does the late line move, hold more significance? I am talking about half points, right before kick off. Does Vegas have a closing line before they actually move it on game day? It seems to me they will move as they see fit, and are not really responding to money... just my opinion tho..

maybe you could share yours.

[JR007]

"WHAT THE SHARPS THINK ABOUT
THIS WEEK'S NFL GAMES
Time once again for our weekly look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about the week's NFL action. As always, we take the games in rotation order.
SAN DIEGO AT ST. LOUIS: Early support for San Diego, which is odd considering how badly they've played on the road. But, St. Louis hasn't run into a perennial playoff team yet this season, and they may be outmatched by Philip Rivers and the Chargers. An opener of 7.5 is up to 8.5. Note that we're in the basic strategy teaser window there. sportsbooks may be less concerned about that here though given San Diego's inability to win on the road against opponents like Kansas City, Seattle, and Oakland. The total is up a point from 44 to 45. Biggest factor here is probably the St. Louis blowout loss in Detroit last week. The Rams are still way below the really good teams in Power Ratings.
KANSAS CITY AT HOUSTON: An opener of 3.5 moved up to 4.5 for Houston. Sharps didn't think the squares (public bettors) would come in on the dog regardless of the price...so they went ahead and bet early. I've told you often that sharps will hit +3.5 immediately if they like the dog because the key number of three is involved. If they like the favorite, and the public isn't going to bet the dog to give them any line breaks, they'll come in immediately there as well. Houston is in a bounce-back spot after a very badly played game. Kansas City is playing back-to-back on the road, and hasn't shown much offense all season. Not much interest yet on the total.
BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND: New England opened at -3 with a total of 46. The big move has been on the total, which has seen a drop to 44.5. Sharps realize that New England had a bunch of cheap points vs. Miami the last time they played. They also remember the Pats/Jets game landing on 42...and the Jets and Ravens are very similar teams this year. We're seeing definite sharp interest on the Ravens at +3. Some places are now charging extra vigorish to take the dog. Others have toyed with a line of New England by 2.5 just to see what happens. The best books don't want to play with the teaser window though, and invite Baltimore +8.5 money in on two-teamers.
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY: Sharps have made a lot of money this year betting against the Saints. They stepped in again here, driving an opening line of Tampa Bay +6.5 down to +4.5. The total has also moved dramatically, dropping from 46 to 43.5. Tampa Bay impressed the sharps last week with that outright win in Cincinnati. New Orleans still hasn't covered a game yet. And, the offense isn't anywhere near last year's form. Sharps tend to like dogs and Unders anyway in general. They REALLY like that against the Saints this year...particularly the opposing dogs.
ATLANTA AT PHILADELPHIA: The only interest here so far has been on the total, where an opener of 41.5 is now up to 42.5. The team side line of Philadelphia -3 will probably sit there most of the week. My read on the sharps is that they like Atlanta plus the points. They're waiting to see if they can get better than +3, or favorable juice if the public bets the home favorite. Sportsbooks will have to decide if they want to drop that three down to 2.5 on game day, which would invite a lot of Atlanta +8.5 teasers into play from sharps who are already thinking about Atlanta at the regular spread.
DETROIT AT NY GIANTS: A small tick down from Giants -10.5 to -10 early on. Detroit is getting respect from sharps because they are showing fight every week on both sides of the ball. They rallied for a back door cover recently against Philadelphia, and didn't need the back door at Green Bay. Last week's rout was a bit misleading...but Detroit was clearly the better side. Sharps like taking double digits anyway. A money team like the Lions (who thought I'd ever be typing a sentence like THAT again?) will have obvious appeal.
SEATTLE AT CHICAGO: Not much going on here. The total went up from 37 to 37.5. Jay Cutler is supposed to play. Sharps want to see what kind of form he's in before betting for or against him. That first half against the Giants was horrible. To this point Seattle isn't generating much of a buzz one way or the other. Sharps don't trust college coaches at the pro level. Seattle will get support at value prices at home. Not so much on the road.
MIAMI AT GREEN BAY: No line had been posted as I was putting this report together because of the injury to Aaron Rodgers. Sharps will look for value on the dog (like always). They'll fade the backup, or go against a concussed favorite that hasn't been covering spreads anyway unless oddsmakers post the perfect line.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: The total has dropped from 40 to 37 because of Cleveland's quarterback situation. As we go to press, Colt McCoy is getting strong consideration as a 'feed somebody to the lions' starter. If you're top two guys are banged up, you don't want them facing that great Pittsburgh defense! McCoy looked to be in over his head in limited Preseason action. How will he thrive here? The line of 13 hasn't moved yet. Sharps have made their move on the total, and probably won't touch the game otherwise. They don't bet untested rookies, and they don't lay big numbers in the NFL as a general rule unless they're taking a position for a later buy back.
NY JETS AT DENVER: The total jumped from 40 to 41.5. The Jets are doing more on offense than many expected, which is why their games keep going Over. Oddsmakers have been slow to fully adjust. Sharps keep hitting the openers. It doesn't hurt here that Denver is likely to pass the ball at least 40 times, helping to lengthen the game. No movement yet on the team side line of Jets -3. That's one of those games that will see sharps fade the public if the public gets involved. If there's little game day interest, we may see some sharps on the home dog with the field goal, particularly with the road favorite coming off a short preparation week.
OAKLAND AT SAN FRANCISCO: Some support for the 49ers in a must-win situation. Though, part of the move from -6 to -6.5 may have just been early position-taking on the thought that the public will bet the favorite up to a full touchdown with the season on the line. Nothing happening yet on the total.
DALLAS AT MINNESOTA: This will be a popular betting matchup on game day with the big name teams involved in a playoff rematch. Early support for Minnesota from -1 up to -1.5 because they showed signs of life in the Jets game. And, Dallas didn't exactly play well on this field back in January either. Tough to trust either team in a game they have to win...and the spread is so close to pick-em that you're asking your team to win the game outright. Wouldn't be surprised to see sharps fade public money on game day here rather than make a call themselves.
INDIANAPOLIS AT WASHINGTON: Indianapolis was overpriced at Houston and Jacksonville. Sharps played that card again with money bringing and opener of Indy -4 down to Indy -3. The total dropped a point as well, falling from 44.5 to 43.5. Washington's offense has struggled most of the year. The combination of dog and Under makes sense in that light. If Washington can't score enough to cover, the game is probably staying Under.
TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: Big move here on the total, as an opener of 42 has jumped all the way up to 45. Jacksonville has scored some points the past two weeks...but continues to struggle on defense. Tennessee's defense has been inconsistent so far...shutting down bad offenses but failing to do so vs. better teams. Sharps see a shootout here. Not interest on the team side line at -3. We're seeing a lot of three's this year. When two even teams play each other, the home team is going to be -3. When 'pretty good' is on the road against 'hard to trust,' then the visitor will be -3. A lot of parity once again this season in the NFL.
That wraps up my look at what the sharps are thinking this week in the NFL."

[Ratzz]

BRONCOS are my pick of week as well... smart play

[thechaoz]

The broncos? SO we are expecting a Jets hangover after the big MN win?

[ronjon619]

"WHAT THE SHARPS THINK ABOUT
THIS WEEK'S NFL GAMES
Time once again for our weekly look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about the week's NFL action. As always, we take the games in rotation order.
SAN DIEGO AT ST. LOUIS: Early support for San Diego, which is odd considering how badly they've played on the road. But, St. Louis hasn't run into a perennial playoff team yet this season, and they may be outmatched by Philip Rivers and the Chargers. An opener of 7.5 is up to 8.5. Note that we're in the basic strategy teaser window there. sportsbooks may be less concerned about that here though given San Diego's inability to win on the road against opponents like Kansas City, Seattle, and Oakland. The total is up a point from 44 to 45. Biggest factor here is probably the St. Louis blowout loss in Detroit last week. The Rams are still way below the really good teams in Power Ratings.
KANSAS CITY AT HOUSTON: An opener of 3.5 moved up to 4.5 for Houston. Sharps didn't think the squares (public bettors) would come in on the dog regardless of the price...so they went ahead and bet early. I've told you often that sharps will hit +3.5 immediately if they like the dog because the key number of three is involved. If they like the favorite, and the public isn't going to bet the dog to give them any line breaks, they'll come in immediately there as well. Houston is in a bounce-back spot after a very badly played game. Kansas City is playing back-to-back on the road, and hasn't shown much offense all season. Not much interest yet on the total.
BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND: New England opened at -3 with a total of 46. The big move has been on the total, which has seen a drop to 44.5. Sharps realize that New England had a bunch of cheap points vs. Miami the last time they played. They also remember the Pats/Jets game landing on 42...and the Jets and Ravens are very similar teams this year. We're seeing definite sharp interest on the Ravens at +3. Some places are now charging extra vigorish to take the dog. Others have toyed with a line of New England by 2.5 just to see what happens. The best books don't want to play with the teaser window though, and invite Baltimore +8.5 money in on two-teamers.
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY: Sharps have made a lot of money this year betting against the Saints. They stepped in again here, driving an opening line of Tampa Bay +6.5 down to +4.5. The total has also moved dramatically, dropping from 46 to 43.5. Tampa Bay impressed the sharps last week with that outright win in Cincinnati. New Orleans still hasn't covered a game yet. And, the offense isn't anywhere near last year's form. Sharps tend to like dogs and Unders anyway in general. They REALLY like that against the Saints this year...particularly the opposing dogs.
ATLANTA AT PHILADELPHIA: The only interest here so far has been on the total, where an opener of 41.5 is now up to 42.5. The team side line of Philadelphia -3 will probably sit there most of the week. My read on the sharps is that they like Atlanta plus the points. They're waiting to see if they can get better than +3, or favorable juice if the public bets the home favorite. Sportsbooks will have to decide if they want to drop that three down to 2.5 on game day, which would invite a lot of Atlanta +8.5 teasers into play from sharps who are already thinking about Atlanta at the regular spread.
DETROIT AT NY GIANTS: A small tick down from Giants -10.5 to -10 early on. Detroit is getting respect from sharps because they are showing fight every week on both sides of the ball. They rallied for a back door cover recently against Philadelphia, and didn't need the back door at Green Bay. Last week's rout was a bit misleading...but Detroit was clearly the better side. Sharps like taking double digits anyway. A money team like the Lions (who thought I'd ever be typing a sentence like THAT again?) will have obvious appeal.
SEATTLE AT CHICAGO: Not much going on here. The total went up from 37 to 37.5. Jay Cutler is supposed to play. Sharps want to see what kind of form he's in before betting for or against him. That first half against the Giants was horrible. To this point Seattle isn't generating much of a buzz one way or the other. Sharps don't trust college coaches at the pro level. Seattle will get support at value prices at home. Not so much on the road.
MIAMI AT GREEN BAY: No line had been posted as I was putting this report together because of the injury to Aaron Rodgers. Sharps will look for value on the dog (like always). They'll fade the backup, or go against a concussed favorite that hasn't been covering spreads anyway unless oddsmakers post the perfect line.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: The total has dropped from 40 to 37 because of Cleveland's quarterback situation. As we go to press, Colt McCoy is getting strong consideration as a 'feed somebody to the lions' starter. If you're top two guys are banged up, you don't want them facing that great Pittsburgh defense! McCoy looked to be in over his head in limited Preseason action. How will he thrive here? The line of 13 hasn't moved yet. Sharps have made their move on the total, and probably won't touch the game otherwise. They don't bet untested rookies, and they don't lay big numbers in the NFL as a general rule unless they're taking a position for a later buy back.
NY JETS AT DENVER: The total jumped from 40 to 41.5. The Jets are doing more on offense than many expected, which is why their games keep going Over. Oddsmakers have been slow to fully adjust. Sharps keep hitting the openers. It doesn't hurt here that Denver is likely to pass the ball at least 40 times, helping to lengthen the game. No movement yet on the team side line of Jets -3. That's one of those games that will see sharps fade the public if the public gets involved. If there's little game day interest, we may see some sharps on the home dog with the field goal, particularly with the road favorite coming off a short preparation week.
OAKLAND AT SAN FRANCISCO: Some support for the 49ers in a must-win situation. Though, part of the move from -6 to -6.5 may have just been early position-taking on the thought that the public will bet the favorite up to a full touchdown with the season on the line. Nothing happening yet on the total.
DALLAS AT MINNESOTA: This will be a popular betting matchup on game day with the big name teams involved in a playoff rematch. Early support for Minnesota from -1 up to -1.5 because they showed signs of life in the Jets game. And, Dallas didn't exactly play well on this field back in January either. Tough to trust either team in a game they have to win...and the spread is so close to pick-em that you're asking your team to win the game outright. Wouldn't be surprised to see sharps fade public money on game day here rather than make a call themselves.
INDIANAPOLIS AT WASHINGTON: Indianapolis was overpriced at Houston and Jacksonville. Sharps played that card again with money bringing and opener of Indy -4 down to Indy -3. The total dropped a point as well, falling from 44.5 to 43.5. Washington's offense has struggled most of the year. The combination of dog and Under makes sense in that light. If Washington can't score enough to cover, the game is probably staying Under.
TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: Big move here on the total, as an opener of 42 has jumped all the way up to 45. Jacksonville has scored some points the past two weeks...but continues to struggle on defense. Tennessee's defense has been inconsistent so far...shutting down bad offenses but failing to do so vs. better teams. Sharps see a shootout here. Not interest on the team side line at -3. We're seeing a lot of three's this year. When two even teams play each other, the home team is going to be -3. When 'pretty good' is on the road against 'hard to trust,' then the visitor will be -3. A lot of parity once again this season in the NFL.
That wraps up my look at what the sharps are thinking this week in the NFL."

who is the author of this?

[36mafia]

broncs are $$$$

elway still got it imo

[ManBearPig]

Loved this play before and feel better that you feel the same way. Maybe I'll get one right for once...

[chris pervine]

jets

i dont think thats a good chioice.

[NYSportsGuy210]

broncs are $$$$

elway still got it imo

Haha

For anyone that actually likes to bet games based on actual football knowledge and not just silly line movements based on public opinion.....Jets are the right play here.



NY Jets are one of the top defenses in the NFL period. They can also easily be a 5-0 team instead of 4-1 team had they opened up the playbook against Baltimore in week 1. Also they have won 5 straight road games dating back to last year as well so playing on the road isn't a factor. And guess what.....the Broncos are a bad team defensively against the run and guess what the Jets do really well? You got it....they run.

Jets (-3) all day here. (This "sharp -square" nonsense more ludicrous than this thread.)

[Sportsnut1968]

Looks like a trap game to me....I think the Broncos find a way to keep it close......Late field goal to win