When Ganch Bets...

[HedgeHog]

Do books piss their pants when Ganch bets? Does he bet under his own name? And most importantly, would you want to be on the same side as he is--even if it's "just" $100 (talk about smart money)?

[Scorpion]

no

[pokernut9999]

When I watch the show Numbers on CBS I always wonder if Ganch is like that math guy on the show.

[jjgold]

Fade him like any other and long term you cannot lose

I would go head to head with Ganch for 15k 3 bets per week from January 1st to April 1st, baskets (ncaab,nba) sides or totals only.

[HedgeHog]

When I watch the show Numbers on CBS I always wonder if Ganch is like that math guy on the show.

Same here. I was wondering if Ganch writes in every week to correct their mistakes.

[HedgeHog]

Fade him like any other and long term you cannot lose

I would go head to head with Ganch for 15k 3 bets per week from January 1st to April 1st, baskets (ncaab,nba) sides or totals only.

Ganch vs "Rain Man"--sounds like a fair contest.

[pokernut9999]

Same here. I was wondering if Ganch writes in every week to correct their mistakes.

LMAO

[Ganchrow]

Fade him like any other and long term you cannot lose

I would go head to head with Ganch for 15k 3 bets per week from January 1st to April 1st, baskets (ncaab,nba) sides or totals only.

Do you have $15k?

I do this to make money, not to pad my own ego.

If you're actually serious about wanting to make a bet such as this, then cut the bluster and the posturing, send me an e-mail or a Skype and we can discuss terms.

[Thremp]

I'll back matching side action on Ganch if there are any takers, whatever terms are agree on.

[Destroyer]

If this bet actually materializes, I would love to lay some action. This should be an interesting contest.

[Ganchrow]

If this bet actually materializes, I would love to lay some action. This should be an interesting contest.

Positively fascinating I'm sure.

The bet's never going to materialize because he's never going to contact me, he's just going to post about it, make up some fantastically idiotic story, and then never follow through.

I'll point out that contests such as this (over a very small number of bets) are generally not the boon for the advantage player that one might think.

For example, a 54% Kelly player betting on average at about -107 would actually prefer to place to 36 individual win/lose-only bets (expected bankroll growth = 3.59%), than to face a 51% bettor in an even-money 36-game winner take-all contest (win = 55.49%, lose = 35.43%, push = 9.08%, expected bankroll growth = 2.26%).

Nevertheless, if JJ wants to negotiate the terms of a bet with me in good faith, he's welcome to do so off-line -- but I'm not going to hold my breath.

[ShamsWoof10]

I can't go on anything but what I see and since nothing is really documented I went to BTP standings...

WHY THE F*CK would ANY BOOK care about a 20-19-1 bettor..? He's better then me at 19-19-2 but NOTHING SPECIAL...

[Ganchrow]

I can't go on anything but what I see and since nothing is really documented I went to BTP standings...

WHY THE F*CK would ANY BOOK care about a 20-19-1 bettor..? He's better then me at 19-19-2 but NOTHING SPECIAL...

I don't want to get dragged into a silly argument here, but I'll point out that even a player who does bet football and who is a 60% picker (which is an unrealistically large win rate) would still have have a 17.13% chance of going 20-19 or worse.

(And just how great really is a 60% win rate? Well, a Kelly bettor betting 4 games a week over the course of a regular season at about -107.5 would expect to better than sextuple his bankroll each season. Starting with a $10K bankroll (and unrealistically assuming no max bet constraints) the expected value of his bankroll would be $13,607,715 after a mere 4 seasons. When you consider that even that player has a roughly 17% chance of going 20-19 or worse, you'll realize just how meaningless a 39-game record really is.)

[jjgold]

Ganch does not post plays like me

I am pretty strong when I spot bet

I have a call into SBR John about forum gambling and if it is allowed, he might want a cut....fuk he wants a cut on everything so lets see how this develops.

[ShamsWoof10]

I don't want to get dragged into a silly argument here, but I'll point out that even a player who does bet football and who is a 60% picker (which is an unrealistically large win rate) would still have have a 17.13% chance of going 20-19 or worse.

(And just how great really is a 60% win rate? Well, a Kelly bettor betting 4 games a week over the course of a regular season at about -107.5 would expect to better than sextuple his bankroll each every season. Starting with a $10K bankroll (and unrealistically assuming no max bet constraints) the expected value of his bankroll would be $13,607,715 after a mere 4 seasons. When you consider that even that player has a roughly 17% chance of going 20-19 or worse, you'll realize just how absolutely meaningless a 39-game record really is.)

Well that 39 games is all I have to go by... You say you are 60% so I have to take your word... I say I am well above that but I am not a Kelly bettor...

For me picking winners is easy but managing money is very VERY hard... I have never been able to do it... If I went 60% I would lose...

If you expect me to take your word then I expect the same... For me to win I need a night like last night (6-0-1) or I usually don't win because if I go 4-2 what likely happened is I went big on the two and small on the four...

I don't post my plays because as you can see I am a very unusual bettor... Normally ALLLL my bets are quarters and halfs...

2) BET ID=232353816
Straight Wager 12/21/07 23:01 ET
bet 400.00 to win 380.95 (paid 780.95) Result: Wager Won

xxxFloridaAtlantic4Q 7
xxxMemphis4Q 0 12/21/07(23:59 ET)
Under 14.5 (-105)

3) BET ID=232340630
Straight Wager 12/21/07 20:56 ET
bet 100.00 to win 100.00 (paid 100.0) Result: No Action

xFloridaAtlantic2Q 13
xMemphis2Q 13 12/21/07(23:59 ET)
xMemphis2Q 0 (even)

4) BET ID=232340619
Straight Wager 12/21/07 20:56 ET
bet 200.00 to win 200.00 (paid 200.0) Result: No Action

xFloridaAtlantic2Q 13
xMemphis2Q 13 12/21/07(23:59 ET)
xMemphis2Q 0 (even)

5) BET ID=232335421
Straight Wager 12/21/07 20:01 ET
bet 300.00 to win 285.71 (paid 585.71) Result: Wager Won

FloridaAtl 44
Memphis 27 12/21/07(20:10 ET)
FloridaAtl -3.5 (-105)

6) BET ID=232330862
If Win (Maximum 7 Teams) 12/21/07 19:34 ET
bet 200.00 to win 338.62 (paid 538.63) Result: Net Gain

Event #1
Flyers(Philadelphia) 2
Sabres(Buffalo) 3 12/21/07(19:35 ET)
Sabres(Buffalo) -135

Event #2
Flyers(Philadelphia) 2
Sabres(Buffalo) 3 12/21/07(19:35 ET)
Under 6 (-105)


44539045-1 12/21/2007 8:01 PM Total 400.00 380.95 Football - 305 Florida Atlantic (Football)/Memphis (Football) over 67½ -105 for Game
44563600-1 12/21/2007 11:49 PM Total 100.00 92.59 Basketball - 519 Toronto Raptors/Seattle SuperSonics over 98½ -108 for 2nd Half

[ShamsWoof10]

Make that 7-0-1.. I don't know why this didn't get pasted with the others...

Anyway I bet that guy who I talked about pulling guards with would do well with in games if he played them... All that pre game stat sh*t is garbage..

1) BET ID=232354429
Straight Wager 12/21/07 23:11 ET
bet 250.00 to win 325.00 (paid 575.0) Result: Wager Won

xxClippers3Q 21
xxMavericks3Q 19 12/22/07(01:00 ET)
xxClippers3Q +2 (+130)

[Ganchrow]

You've misunderstood me, Shams.

I am neither claiming to be a 60% picker nor am I asking you to "take my word" for anything.

I was simply showing how even a player capable of picking long-term at 60% (the enormity of which I demonstrated) would still nevertheless have a roughly 17% of going 20-19 or worse over 39 non-pushed games.

[Ganchrow]

For me picking winners is easy but managing money is very VERY hard

When I read this I generally assume it to mean that the writer's poor money management skills are most evident in his frequent selection of -EV games.

[ShamsWoof10]

You've misunderstood me, Shams.

I am in neither claiming to be a 60% picker nor am I asking you to "take my word" on anything.

I was simply showing how even a player capable of picking long-term at 60% (the enormity of which I demonstrated) would still nevertheless have a roughly 17% of going 20-19 or worse over 39 non-pushed games.

oh ok...

When I read this I generally assume it to mean that the writer's poor money management skills are most evident in his frequent selection of -EV games.

Nothing to assume... It's like it sounds... I have very poor MM skills... You can see it in my personality... I use the word "lock" and feel overly good about it... When I posted my "locks" I would do well but the ones I bet heavy on would lose... I would go 7-3 and break even or lose because I get over confident on one quarter... I am getting better since joining this forum though...

A classic day in the recent past would be going 3-1 and losing $100... I would bet $300 on the first three and $1000 on the fourth... Like I said I try not to do that sh*t anymore it's stupid...

[Scorpion]

I worry for Ganch, be careful, jj has the Devil on his side!

[donjuan]

Shams,

Please stop embarrassing yourself.

[ShamsWoof10]

How's that..?

I simply said based on what I see, which is all I can base it on, I don't think a book or local should be concerned...

[donjuan]

Making claims that you are above 60% and that it's just your poor "money management" that keeps you from being extremely rich.

[ShamsWoof10]

Ok so you don't believe it so what....

I'll bet anyone here that I will be ABOVE 60%... AS LONG AS I CAN TAKE HALFS AND QUARTERS...

By the way I didn't directly make claims that I would be rich with the exception of poor management but now that you mention it I would be rich if it was not for my poor money management and THIS IS SPORTS BETTING ASIDE...

[donjuan]

Here is what I will offer you. Any amount up to 1k, giving me +150 that you can't hit 60% or greater over 100 bets.

[ShamsWoof10]

Why do you get +150.?

[donjuan]

Because you're so good.

[ShamsWoof10]

+150..????

You're out of your f*ckin' mind...

[jjgold]

60% on sides in baskets and foots is equal to about +440

[ShamsWoof10]

[durito]

I will give you +200 odds you can't hit 60% of your next 100 picks. Sides, totals, halves, quarters -- whatever you want. You can't lay more than -115.

[ShamsWoof10]

F*ck those odds... I am not doing a 100 games because that's too much work.... No money no odds I'll pick 20 games... That's about all my attention span can deal with since there is no real motivation... I really don't want people to know what I am doing to start with...

If this does go ahead don't get pissy if it's a few seconds late as long as I post my ticket...
I will also take whatever I take no matter the price... As you can see my average is even better then -110...

-135
+130
-105
+100
-105
-108
-105
-105

[curious]

Positively fascinating I'm sure.

The bet's never going to materialize because he's never going to contact me, he's just going to post about it, make up some fantastically idiotic story, and then never follow through.

I'll point out that contests such as this (over a very small number of bets) are generally not the boon for the advantage player that one might think.

For example, a 54% Kelly player betting on average at about -107 would actually prefer to place to 36 individual win/lose-only bets (expected bankroll growth = 3.59%), than to face a 51% bettor in an even-money 36-game winner take-all contest (win = 55.49%, lose = 35.43%, push = 9.08%, expected bankroll growth = 2.26%).

Nevertheless, if JJ wants to negotiate the terms of a bet with me in good faith, he's welcome to do so off-line -- but I'm not going to hold my breath.

None of this "I am a genius because I can talk bullshit using advanced math terms...etc, etc, etc" means that you can actually pick winners and I have never seen a winning post of yours on here. Never seen a losing post either, I'm pretty sure you don't post picks. All the theoretical "advantage" doesn't mean jack if you can't pick winners. I would be willing to bet that you can't do that.

[durito]

None of this "I am a genius because I can talk bullshit using advanced math terms...etc, etc, etc" means that you can actually pick winners and I have never seen a winning post of yours on here. Never seen a losing post either, I'm pretty sure you don't post picks. All the theoretical "advantage" doesn't mean jack if you can't pick winners. I would be willing to bet that you can't do that.

[curious]

oh ok...



Nothing to assume... It's like it sounds... I have very poor MM skills... You can see it in my personality... I use the word "lock" and feel overly good about it... When I posted my "locks" I would do well but the ones I bet heavy on would lose... I would go 7-3 and break even or lose because I get over confident on one quarter... I am getting better since joining this forum though...

A classic day in the recent past would be going 3-1 and losing $100... I would bet $300 on the first three and $1000 on the fourth... Like I said I try not to do that sh*t anymore it's stupid...

If you really can pick > 60% winners, I'm not saying you can't, and MM is the problem, why don't you partner with someone who has good MM skills? A win ratio > 60% is a license to print money.