PGA Championship Predictions

[SBR Andy]

The 2nd major of the golf season has arrived and 2024 PGA Championship Odds are starting to settle in. Let's tap into the SBR community to find some winners this week at Valhalla.

Odds as of 5/14 at 8:00 AM ET

Player	DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Scottie Scheffler	+400	+400	+450	+300	+400
Rory McIlroy	+750	+750	+750	+600	+650
Brooks Koepka	+1400	+1400	+1400	+1100	+1400
Xander Schauffele	+1400	+1400	+1400	+1000	+1200
Jon Rahm	+1600	+1600	+1800	+1400	+1600
Ludvig Aberg	+2000	+2000	+1800	+1400	+1800
Bryson DeChambeau	+2500	+2800	+2500	+2000	+2500
Collin Morikawa	+3000	+3000	+2800	+2500	+2500
Max Homa	+3500	+3500	+3300	+2500	+2500
Joaquin Niemann	+3500	+3500	+3300	+2500	+3000

What are your top PGA Championship Predictions? Comment below with your best bets, lots of markets out there:

Outright Winner/Each Way
Top 10/20 Finishes
Make/Miss Cut
Tournament Matchups
Round 1 3-balls
First Round Leader

[SBR Andy]

Good visual on approach shot distribution from the last time they played the PGA at Valhalla in 2014, courtesy of datagolf. Will be a premium on long iron play this week.

[SBR Andy]

A few players further down the board worth a sprinkle on:

Hovland 50/1 - Buy low opportunity on Vik as he has done nothing this year. But he had a solid weekend at Wells Fargo and had one hand on the Wanamaker last year at Oak Hill until a double on 16 on Sunday.

Theegala 75/1 - Has the makeup of a major contender: Bombs it, elite iron play and strong putter. Only a matter of time before he gets in the mix.

Spieth 90/1 - Course profile doesn't really match his game but how often can you get Spieth close to 100/1 in a major?

[Optional]

Outright Winner/Each Way - Collin Morikawa +3000
Top 10/20 Finishes - Min Woo Lee Top 10 +600
Make/Miss Cut - Dustin Johnson misses +137
Tournament Matchups - Cam Smith > Justin Thomas -120
Round 1 3-balls -
First Round Leader - Aberg +3000

[stevenash]

Bryson Dechambeau at 28:1.
He's won a US Open and finished tied for fourth twice in this PGA tourney.

I'll bite,
Bryson Dechambeau 28:1 for 40 dollars.
He's Major tested.

By the way, wouldn't that be a kick in the yam bag to the PGA and Jay Monahan if Dechambeau wins this?

Sleeper Pick:

Denny McCarthy.

110:1 to win
8:1 top ten
+320 top 20
+180 top 30
Even money to finish top 40

McCarthy has made 11 out of 12 cuts.
Three top ten finishes.

I'm locking in McCarthy to finish in the top 30 at +180.
Tons of value there.

[SBR Andy]

Round 1 3-balls are out. I like to target groups with Club Pros who qualified. You can basically eliminate them and turn it into a two-way matchup and find some nice plus money edges:

Ghim +138 vs Meronk/Collet (CP) - BetMGM
Murray +115 vs Herbert/Gross (CP) - BetMGM
Wallace +125 vs Fox/Speight (CP) - FanDuel
Burmester +100 vs Griffin/Svoboda (CP) - DraftKings


Also, if you have access to Betway - they are hanging some outlier top 10 / 20 prices:

Top 20
Taylor Moore +700
Kitayama +550
Rodgers +750
Si Woo Kim +275

Top 10
McCarthy +1100
Henley +800

[Darkside Magick]

Brooks Koepka +1600

[SBR Andy]

PGA Championship betting insights courtesy of BetMGM:

Tournament Winner

Line movement (Open to Now)
• Scottie Scheffler +750, +450
• Rory McIlroy +1100, +750
• Brooks Koepka +1200, +1400
• Jon Rahm +800, +1800

Highest Ticket %
• Scottie Scheffler 18.2%
• Rory McIlroy 10.9%
• Brooks Koepka 10.0%

Highest Handle %
• Scottie Scheffler 29.4%
• Brooks Koepka 14.5%
• Rory McIlroy 13.3%


First Round Leader

Highest Ticket %
• Scottie Scheffler 11.5%
• Rory McIlroy 9.4%
• Bryson DeChambeau 7.8%

Highest Handle %
• Rory McIlroy 18.2%
• Scottie Scheffler 16.8%
• Bryson DeChambeau 10.5%


Finishing Position

Top 5
1. Scottie Scheffler -120
2. Rory McIlroy +160
3. Brooks Koepka +300
4. Xander Schauffele +300
5. Ludvig Aberg +333

Top 10
1. Xander Schauffele +150
2. Brooks Koepka +150
3. Rory McIlroy -125
4. Si-Woo Kim +650
5. Max Homa +275

Top 20
1. Max Homa +135
2. Bryson DeChambeau +120
3. Xander Schauffele -330
4. Wyndham Clark -165
5. Brooks Koepka -285

Top 40
1. Sepp Straka +110
2. Stephan Jaeger +125
3. Byeong-Hun An -125
4. Keith Mitchell +140
5. Sahith Theegala -110


The Cut

Most bet to make the cut (tickets)
1. Tiger Woods +140
2. Phil Mickelson +180
3. Bryson DeChambeau -400
4. Will Zalatoris -250
5. Brooks Koepka -500

Most bet to miss the cut (tickets)
1. Jordan Speith +180
2. Talor Gooch +180
3. Dustin Johnson +140
4. Cameron Smith +230
5. Rory McIlroy +500


Other Popular Markets (most tickets)

Top LIV Golfer
1. Brooks Koepka +350
2. Bryson DeChambeau +600
3. Jon Rahm +350
4. Cameron Smith +900
5. Joaquin Niemann +650

Any LIV Player to win the Tournament
• Yes (+350): 97.6% tickets, 99% handle
• No (-500): 2.4% tickets, 1% handle

Will there be a hole in one?
• Yes (+110): 35.9% tickets, 16.9% handle
• No (-135): 64.1% tickets, 83.1% handle

[Darkside Magick]

Round 1

Brooks Koepka +120 vs Rory Mclroy

[SBR Andy]

3-1 Rd 1 3-balls, 4 more for Rd 2 all BetMGM:

English +180 vs Davis/Gooch
Fitzpatrick +170 vs Morikawa/Mickelson
Bradley +160 vs Scott/Woods
Kitayama +110 vs Perez/Malnati

[SBR Andy]

A few players further down the board worth a sprinkle on:

Hovland 50/1 - Buy low opportunity on Vik as he has done nothing this year. But he had a solid weekend at Wells Fargo and had one hand on the Wanamaker last year at Oak Hill until a double on 16 on Sunday.

Theegala 75/1 - Has the makeup of a major contender: Bombs it, elite iron play and strong putter. Only a matter of time before he gets in the mix.

Spieth 90/1 - Course profile doesn't really match his game but how often can you get Spieth close to 100/1 in a major?

Couple horses in the race! Awesome leaderboard, should be a great Sunday of golf.